Free Picks: Service Plays for Monday May, 7

Marc Lawrence

St Louis Cardinals at Arizona Diamondbacks
Prediction: St Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals and Diamondbacks open a three game series in Arizona where Lance Lynn matches serves with Joe Saunders Monday evening. Lynn has been a most pleasant surprise for the Redbirds, filling in for staff ace Chris Carpenter in impressive fashion as he enters tonight's contest in commanding KW form with 30 strikeouts and 7 walks in his five starts this campaign. Lynn is also 4-0 away with a 1.35 ERA in his MLB career team starts, including 3-0 this season. We're not about to step in front of rhythm like that. Neither should you. We recommend a 1-unit play on St. Louis.

Kyle Hunter

Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Play: Cincinnati Reds

The Milwaukee Brewers aren't playing good baseball right now. The team is dinged up and it seems they are having some chemistry issues. The Reds haven't been very good this year, but they have hit their stride a bit of late and they are now 14-13 on the season. Bronson Arroyo has allowed just 6 earned runs in his last 35 innings against Milwaukee. On the other hand, the Reds team hits Yovani Gallardo well. The Reds are 6-1 in their last 7 against Gallardo. At plus money, I like the Reds here.

Ben Burns

Rockies @ Padres
PICK: Under 6.5

Both these teams come in off fairly high-scoring games. The Rockies lost 7-2 vs. the Braves. The Padres lost 6-3 vs. the Marlins. I expect a considerably lower-scoring affair for tonight's series opener.

Yesterday's game notwithstanding, Petco remains a pitcher's park. The Padres entered Sunday's action hitting a mere .208 at home, averaging exactly three runs here. Visitors haven't fared much better. Opposing teams entered yesterday's game averaging 3.6 runs while hitting a paltry .205 here.

Prior to only scoring two runs there yesterday, the Rockies had been hitting very well at home. Indeed, they were averaging 6.8 runs at Coors Field, while hitting a highly respectable .290 as a team there. Hitting on the road has been an entirely different story. The Rockies enter tonight's game hitting .211 away from Colorado, averaging only 3.2 runs. As a team, their on-base-percentage on the road is a mere .259.

Each of today's starting pitchers has been in top form of late. Pomeranz gave up only one run in 6 2/3 innings last time out. He now has a stellar 2.30 ERA his last three starts.

San Diego's starter has been even better. After a slow start, Volquez has caught fire. He's got an outstanding 1.80 ERA and 0.85 WHIP his last three starts. He allowed 0 runs in seven innings last time out, giving up a mere three hits. In his previous start, he also allowed only three hits in seven innings, giving up a single run.

True, this O/U number is indeed very low. However, given the venue, current form of the starters and the offensive issues surrounding both clubs, I feel its actually rather reasonable.

Volquez's last three starts have finished with scores of 4-1, 2-1 and 2-0. I won't be surprised if we see a similar type of game tonight. Consider the UNDER.

Sean Murphy

New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies
PICK: Philadelphia Phillies

The price is a little steep, but this is an excellent time to get behind the Phillies, and namely Roy Halladay.

Philadelphia remains a mediocre 14-15 on the season, but has shown signs of turning things around lately, going 3-3 on a tough road trip through Atlanta and Washington, and having won seven of its last 12 games overall.

Perhaps the most encouraging sign has been the sudden surge in offensive production. The Phillies scored 34 runs over the course their six-game road trip, capping things off with a six-run outburst in the ninth inning against the Nationals last night.

There's reason to believe the Phils can keep it going tonight as they go up against Mets lefty Jon Niese. He saw his red hot start grind to a halt in his last outing, allowing six hits and five earned runs over just three innings against the Astros. He did manage to shut out the Phillies over 6 2/3 innings in a 5-0 win back on April 14th, but that was when Philadelphia was mired in a major slump at the dish. His most recent outing against them before that came last August, when he was ripped for 10 hits and eight earned runs in only four innings.

As I mentioned, the Phils will hand the ball to their ace, Roy Halladay. He's coming off a brutal outing of his own, giving up 12 hits and eight earned runs in 5 1/3 innings in Atlanta last week. Consecutive bad starts have been few and far between for Halladay over the course of his career, and I'm confident we'll see him bounce back strong tonight. In spite of that poor performance, he's still 3-2 with a 3.40 ERA and 1.11 WHIP while posting a 29:10 strikeout-to-walk ratio this season.

Halladay has never lost to the Mets since joining the Phillies in 2010. Since then, the Phils are a perfect 7-0 with Roy on the hill against New York, outscoring them by a combined 50-14 margin.

Thanks to a pair of blowout results to close out the weekend, the Phillies have the majority of their key bullpen arms rested and ready for this one.

This is the start of a key series for the Phils, as they currently sit dead last in the N.L. East, but only 1.5 games behind the third place Mets. New York has proven to be a much weaker team on the road this season, going 5-7, and I suspect its road woes will continue for another night on Monday.

Guillermo Sanchez Perez

Cardinals @ Diamondbacks
PICK: Under 8.5

The St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Lance Lynn will face off against the Diamondbacks in Arizona Monday, looking to become the first pitcher to win six games this season. He has been lights out this season so far, with a record of 5-0 and an ERA of 1.60. In five starts this season, he has allowed more than one run only once, allowing just two runs in his last appearance. He will be going up against a Diamondbacks lineup that has struggled at the plate in recent games, going only 3 for 28 with runners in scoring position in their series with the Mets.

The Diamondbacks do get solid pitching from their starters though, and that isn't going to change with Joe Saunders taking the mound Monday. Sauders 2-1 record would be a lot better if he had been getting any run support, and had some "Putz" not blown the save in his last start. The Arizona left-hander boasts the second lowest ERA (1.24) in the major leagues. Saunders has only faced the Cardinals once in his career, holding them scoreless in five innings.

This has all the signs of being a classic pitcher's duel, with these two hurlers on the mound, I wouldn't want to bet against either of them. I will bet that they will both be tough to beat, and being as though the Arizona lineup hasn't been swinging the bats particularly well lately, I expect a low scoring game.

Jack Jones

Texas Rangers -146

After losing four of their last five, the two-time defending AL champion Texas Rangers are hungry for a victory in Game 1 of this series against Baltimore. They'll not only be the more motivated team, they also have the better line-up and better starter on the mound.

Baltimore is in for a huge letdown tonight after their 17-inning win over the Boston Red Sox on Sunday. Their bullpen is taxed, which is going to mean that they'll want Brian Matusz to go deeper into this game. Matusz has posted a 6.64 ERA and 1.574 WHIP in four career starts against Texas.

While Matt Harrison is off to a slow start for the Rangers, I have no doubt he's the better hurler in this one. The Rangers are 4-0 in Harrison's four career starts against Baltimore. In two starts against the Orioles last season, Harrison gave up just 3 earned runs and 14 base runners over 13 innings.

The Rangers are 42-17 in their last 59 games following a loss. Texas is 20-7 in Harrison's last 27 starts overall. The Rangers are 6-0 in Harrison's last 6 starts as a road favorite. The Orioles are 3-13 in Matusz's last 16 starts overall, including 0-7 in his last 7 starts as an underdog of +110 to +150. Bet the Rangers Monday.

Dave Cokin

St. Louis Cardinals vs Arizona Diamondbacks
Pick: St. Louis Cardinals

2012 is shaping as a breakout year for Cardinals righty Lance Lynn. He was a fill-in when Chris Carpenter went down, but Lynn has fortified his position in the rotation with elite level numbers through the first month. Joe Saunders has done well for the Snakes, but I'm riding the Lynn express till it slows down. The Cardinals are the choice.

Jim Feist

Colorado Rockies vs San Diego Padres
Pick: San Diego Padres

The Colorado Rockies have been all bat and no pitch of late. The Rockies staff was hit hard over the weekend by the Braves and it resulted in a three game sweep by Atlanta. Rockies starters have not made it into the sixth inning in their last three games. In fact, the rotation has a 6.91 ERA over their last 11 games. The Rockies must now face a very good Edison Volquez on Monday night. While Volquez is 0-2 this season, he has a nifty 2.92 ERA and an excellent 1.16 WHIP. Volquez has not received a decision in his last two starts, but he has only allowed one earned run over 14 innings. The Rockies will send Drew Pomeranz to the hill with a 0-1 record and 4.05 ERA. Pomeranz has pitched well of late, allowing just two earned runs over the last 10 2/3 innings. Still, Volquez has been brilliant and if the Padres bats can get him some runs, this will be a San Diego win on Monday.

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

LA Angels -1.5 (-115) over MINNESOTA: I have a hunch. I say that Albert Pujols will finally wake up after hitting his first homer of the year last night and what better way to really do that than vs a very bad pitcher in Liriano, even though Albert is 0-8 lifetime vs him. Recently the Twins skipped Liriano's spot on the rotation, because he just wasn't pitching all that well. It didn't work as he came back in his next start and allowed 4 ER in just 5.1 innings of work to these same Angels. Let's face it, he is not a good pitcher right now and even a month off couldn't help him. Liriano is 0-4 with a 9.62 ERA on the year and in 2 starts vs the Halos this year he is 0-1 with a 7.83 ERA. Tyhe Twins have been outscored by 3.6 rpg in his starts overall and 4.3 rpg in his last 3 starts. On the other side we have Jared Weaver, who is 4-0 with a 1.61 ERA (0.78 WHIP) on the year. In 124 AB's, cyurrent twins players are hitting just .194 with 4 HR's off him.He does have some payback in mind here as the Twins tagged him for 5 ER in his lone start vs them this year, but still he has gone 6-2 with a 3.72 ERA in 12 career starts vs the Twins. The Halos have had problems scoring this year, but not while Jared is on the mound, as they have given him 5.5 rpg worth of support, while outscoring their opponents by 3.5 rpg. The Halos are 0-2 in Jared's road starts, but tonight vs a truly bad pitcher that mini road slump should end in easy fashion. Halo's by 3+ runs here.

2 UNIT PLAY

Detroit/ Seattle Under 7: Despite a 9-16 mark in this park, Doug Fister has a 3.42 ERA in 34 starts here. Meaning a lot of low scoring games here for him. Detroit Hit's just .230 on the road, while Seattle hits just .205 at home. Here's the clincher. Since 2009 the Mariners have gone 22-0 UNDER when they are off a game that went UNDER the total by 1 run or less. I see 6 runs here, meaning we could have same play tomorrow. LOL

1 UNIT PLAY

Chicago/ Cleveland Over 8.5 (Game 1): Despite throwing a perfect game, Philip Humber still has a 4.62 ERA overall, including a 5.40 ERA in his last 3 starts, while his games have averaged 10 rpg on the year. Humber has 1 start here (last year) and he allowed 7 ER in just 6 innings. Cleveland bats are waking up, while the ChiSox should be able to tag Zach Mcallister (6.11 ERA in 4 career starts, all last year) for a few. Game 1 should provide plenty of runs.

Jeff Scott Sports

2 UNIT PLAY

San Antonio -8 over UTAH: Google News Play. Gonna ride the hot Spurs here one more time. This is an aging team so this is an important game for them if they want some rest afterwards, as the Clippers/ Memphis series will still go on for a few more days. Despite the need for rest the Spurs are truly sending a statement here, winning by 15, 31 and 12 points, while shooting better than 51% for the series, with Utah having no answer for the duo of Tim Duncan and Tony Parker. The Spurs are 8-1 SU and 7-2-1 ATS the last 9 in the series and 12-0-1 ATS in their last 13 games overall this season. The Thunder have been the talk all year long about being the best team in the west, but the Spurs are showing right now that they are the best team in Basketball and will continue their winning ways with another DD win here.

SPORTS WAGERS

St. Louis -116 over ARIZONA

Joe Saunders seems to have revised his career in 2011 (3.69 ERA, 1.31 WHIP) and he has been even better so far this season (1.24 ERA, 0.96 WHIP). However, most of his base skills are still borderline. His 21% H%, 92% S%, and 2% HR/F have made his surface stats look elite. This is not an elite pitcher. Saunders numbers are in for a significant regression and the Cardinals are just the team to jumpstart the corrections. Four of his five starts have come against the NL’s worst offenses in San Diego, Pittsburgh, Miami and Washington. His charmed life ends here. Meanwhile, Lance Lynn is no fluke. Unlike Saunders, Lynn’s base skills have been outstanding and include a 56% groundball rate and an elite BB/K ratio. Lynn is in complete command of the count, getting ahead of hitters and getting lots of ground balls and strikeouts. Due to Saunders’ solid numbers on paper, we get a cheap lay on the Cardinals and will gladly step in and look to take advantage. Play: St. Louis -116 (Risking 2 units to win 1.72).

Boston -106 over KANSAS CITY (1st 5 innings)

With Clay Buchholz failing to make it out of the fourth inning yesterday in a 17-inning game Aaron Cook failing to make it out of the third in Saturday's loss, the Red Sox bullpen, which was already in trouble, is now completely taxed and we want no part of it whatsoever. As a result, we’ll play this game in five innings because there is some value on Felix Doubront against Jonathan Sanchez. Both are lefties and Boston has a team OPS of .795 versus lefties, which is good for third best in MLB. Kansas City has a team OPS of .606 versus lefties, worst in the AL. Doubront has 30 k’s in 26 innings and a 3.48 xERA but his 5.19 ERA and 1.54 WHIP show he is a sleeper candidate. Jonathan Sanchez has looked horrible after five starts, both on the surface and beneath it (5.24 ERA, 1.70). It's early but his average fastball velocity has declined for three straight seasons and now sits at 89.6 mph, which doesn't have huge separation from the 83.2 mph change-up that he now throws 28% of the time. The 3.07 ERA, 1.23 WHIP version of Sanchez from 2010 seems like a distant memory and it might not be the best time for him to face a potentially potent offense in a foul mood. Play: Boston -106 in the first innings (Risking 2.12 units to win 2).

JR O'Donnell

St Louis Cardinals -120

These D-Backs are a small dog and lefty Joe Saunders is having one of his best seasons ever,at 2-1, 1.24 ERA .96 WHIP. Still his mound opponent Lance Lynn is 5-0, 1.60 ERA & a .77 WHIP has been ON FIRE!!!!. True Joe Saunders has had quality starts in all five this season, but Cards Lynn has been superlative, and the Cardinals love to play behind Lynn ..We see the Arizona bullpen having some huge holes so far.

MLB Predictions

Los Angeles Angels -1.5

Jered Weaver will try to follow up his no-hitter against the Twins with another solid start against them tonight in Minnesota. The Angels split a 4 game series with the Blue Jays over the weekend, and are now 12-17 on the season. Minnesota dropped 2 of 3 on the weekend in Seattle, and have now lost 11 of their last 13 games. These two teams had a 3 game series in Los Angeles last week with the Angels winning all three games and outscoring the Twins 16-3 (including two shutouts). Jered Weaver is 4-0 on the season with a 1.61 ERA, 0.78 WHIP, and .178 opponents batting average. Tonight’s starter for Minnesota will be Francisco Liriano who has struggled to start the season. He is 0-4 with a 9.97 ERA, 2.22 WHIP, and .360 opponents batting average. Liriano has faced Los Angeles twice already this season allowing 14 hits and 9 earned runs against over 10.1 innings of work. He has struck out 17 while walking 16 batters this year (compare that to Weaver who was struck out 45 and walked just 7). Los Angeles has scored 4 or more runs in 5 of their last 7 games, while holding opponents to just 3 or fewer runs in 5 of their past 7. Albert Pujols’ finally got the monkey off his back with a homerun in yesterday’s game vs Toronto. As a team the Angels are hitting .248 against lefties with a OBP of .304. Against righties the Twins are hitting just .228 with a .292 OBP. Takte note that the Twins are just 15-37 in their last 52 home games, and 12-40 in their last 52 overall dating back to last season. The Twins are 1-5 in Liriano’s last 6 starts. We have a big mis-match on the mound, the Angels look to build on a winning two straight and 5 of 7, while the Twins are already 8.5 games back in the AL Central after losing 11 of their last 13 games. Minnesota’s bats have been quiet for most of the year and I would expect nothing else with Weaver on the mound. Take the Angels to win by 2 or more at even money.

Jeff Scott Sports

4 UNIT PLAY

Boston/ Kansas City Under 9: (Added) Ok Slap me now cause I'm really gonna follow the sharp money on this one (and you know how much I hate to do that). It does make sense. First we have two lefties on the mound and those games have gone 19-13-1 to the UNDER this year. Next we have the stat that Marco threw out there and that's the fact that all four games the Royals have played vs a lefty starter have gone under, with just an average of 5.3 rpg being scored. The Royals do hit .271 at home vs lefties, but they score just 2.2 rp/9 vs them at home, plus they have never seen Doubront, which gives the advantage to the pitcher. Felix Doubront has pitched ok on the road, with a 4.09 ERA and will be taking on a weak KC offense that has averaged just 3.7 rpg at home on the year. Jonathan Sanchez has a high 8.22 ERA at home, but that was due to 1 bad start in which he allowed 5 ER i just 2.2 innings vs the Tribe, but then came back stronger in his next home game, allowing just 2 ER in 5 innings to the Tigers. Sox players also have just a .188 BA against Sanchez, but only Adrian Gonzalez has more than 6 AB's vs him and he has just a .231 BA with 1 HR in his 39 AB's vs him. Also we shouldn't alot of late runs here as the Sox have a pen ERA of 1.57 in their last 10 games, while the Royals have a pen ERA of 2.21 over the same stretch. I expect at the most 7 runs in this one.

3 UNIT PLAYS

LA Angels -1.5 (-115) over MINNESOTA: I have a hunch. I say that Albert Pujols will finally wake up after hitting his first homer of the year last night and what better way to really do that than vs a very bad pitcher in Liriano, even though Albert is 0-8 lifetime vs him. Recently the Twins skipped Liriano's spot on the rotation, because he just wasn't pitching all that well. It didn't work as he came back in his next start and allowed 4 ER in just 5.1 innings of work to these same Angels. Let's face it, he is not a good pitcher right now and even a month off couldn't help him. Liriano is 0-4 with a 9.62 ERA on the year and in 2 starts vs the Halos this year he is 0-1 with a 7.83 ERA. Tyhe Twins have been outscored by 3.6 rpg in his starts overall and 4.3 rpg in his last 3 starts. On the other side we have Jared Weaver, who is 4-0 with a 1.61 ERA (0.78 WHIP) on the year. In 124 AB's, cyurrent twins players are hitting just .194 with 4 HR's off him.He does have some payback in mind here as the Twins tagged him for 5 ER in his lone start vs them this year, but still he has gone 6-2 with a 3.72 ERA in 12 career starts vs the Twins. The Halos have had problems scoring this year, but not while Jared is on the mound, as they have given him 5.5 rpg worth of support, while outscoring their opponents by 3.5 rpg. The Halos are 0-2 in Jared's road starts, but tonight vs a truly bad pitcher that mini road slump should end in easy fashion. Halo's by 3+ runs here.

St Louis -113 over ARIZONA: (Added) Line movement is really keeping this from being a higher play, as 63% of of the Public is on the Cards, yet the line has dropped from -130 to -113. Ouch and would someone please stop me from talking that way. LOL Still I feel the public is right here. The D-Backs are off a long trip and teams back from a road trip of 9 or more games are just 3-5 on the year. The cards will be sending out Lance Lynn, who has a 5-0 mark with a 1.60 ERA on the year, while on the road he is 3-0 with a 1.25 ERA. The Cards offense scores just 4.2 rpg on the road, but they have averaged 6 rpg in Lynn's 3 road starts and 7 rpg in his starts overall. The Cards also hit lefties at a .270 clip on the road and as far as pitching goes they have a team ERA of 2.77 on the road, with teams hitting just .220 vs them away from home. Arizona sends out Joe saunders and he has had a good start to his year, with a 2-1 mark and a 1.24 ERA overall, but he is going up against a very good offense and that means that his offense will have to step up and put up more than the 3.4 rpg they have averaged for him this year. I don't see it happening vs Lynn. D-Back starters have averaged just 6 innings per game at home and should Saunders struggle some then he will turn the ball over to an Arizona Pen that has a 5.02 ERA and a .292 BA against in their home games this year. Tomorrow may be the time to take the D-Backs as teams in their 2nd game back from a long trip are 7-1, but tonight in this spot with a Cardinals team that has the better starter and offense I will look their way.

Atlanta -117 over CHICAGO: (Added) Offense. The Braves have it right now and the Cubs do not. I know that its nothing new for a team to put up a trillion runs in a 3 games set at Colorado, but let's also note that this offense put up 6 runs on Roy Halladay and 9 more off of a solid Phils bullpen recently. The Braves hit righties at a .273 clip and score 5.7 rp/ 9 off of them on the road, while the Cubs have hit just .240 and scored 3.7 rp/9 off of righties at home. Jeff Samardzja is having a solid year, especially at home where he is 1-0 with an 0.59 ERA, but one one of those starts was vs a Cards team that had just suffered some offensive injuries and the other was vs a weak Washington offense. The Braves are healthy and hitting well, so I expect them to get to Jeff in this one. Tommy Hanson has pitched very good for Atlanta and the Braves are 3-0 in his last 3 starts. This should also be a close game and that means it should come down to the pens, giving the Braves a big advantage. The Braves are playing well right now and their offense and pitching should be good enough to get a good win tonight.

Detroit -130 over SEATTLE: (Added) Doug Fister is back to he old stomping ground and while he did go 9-16 in 34 starts in this park, he did have a 3.42 ERA during that stretch. When he was with Seattle he wasn't given much run support, but he know has a solid offense behind him. Last year with the M's he was 3-12, but with a very nice 3.33 ERA as they gave him just 2.3 rpg, while with Detroit he was 8-1 with a 1.79 ERA and they gave him 4.9 RPG in his 10 starts for them. In 1 starts this year he lasted just 3.2 innings (injury) but gave up 0 runs, while the Tigers put up 10 runs in that start. This is a very good pitcher that will prosper with a better offense behind him and he should have little problems shutting down a Seattle offense that hits just .205 and scores just 3.6 rpg in their own park. Blake Beavan has not been good for Seattle this year, with a 1-3 mark and a 4.45 ERA overall, including an 0-2 mark with a 5.82 ERA in his last 3 starts. Neither pitcher has faced their opponent, but the tigers do have the better starter and offense and should take game one here.

2 UNIT PLAYS

Detroit/ Seattle Under 7: Despite a 9-16 mark in this park, Doug Fister has a 3.42 ERA in 34 starts here. Meaning a lot of low scoring games here for him. Detroit Hit's just .230 on the road, while Seattle hits just .205 at home. Here's the clincher. Since 2009 the Mariners have gone 22-0 UNDER when they are off a game that went UNDER the total by 1 run or less. I see 6 runs here, meaning we could have same play tomorrow. LOL

St Louis/ Arizona Under 8.5: (Added) Wanted to make this one of my top plays, but the money coming in on the over, plus the fact that this looks way too easy, has me putting it a one of my lesser plays. Both pitchers have been stellar, as Lynn has an ERA of 1.60 to start the year, while Suanders is at 1.24. Both starters also have WHIPs of under 1. This has the makings of a 3-2 pitchers duel Cards win though. LOL

1 UNIT PLAYS

Chicago/ Cleveland Over 8.5 (Game 1): Despite throwing a perfect game, Philip Humber still has a 4.62 ERA overall, including a 5.40 ERA in his last 3 starts, while his games have averaged 10 rpg on the year. Humber has 1 start here (last year) and he allowed 7 ER in just 6 innings. Cleveland bats are waking up, while the ChiSox should be able to tag Zach Mcallister (6.11 ERA in 4 career starts, all last year) for a few. Game 1 should provide plenty of runs.

Colorado/ San Diego Over 6.5: (Added) Had to take a shot with this one. I know it's at Petco but it's not often you will get a Rockies game with this low an OU line. I expect both offenses to have a good showing in this one.