SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA
Boston (49-30, 32-45-2 ATS) at Milwaukee (45-34, 52-26-1 ATS)
The Bucks, boasting the NBA’s best spread-covering mark, play host to the Celtics at the Bradley Center in what could be a preview of a first-round playoff matchup.
Milwaukee lost center and leading rebounder Andrew Bogut in the first half of last Saturday’s 107-98 victory over Phoenix as a two-point home chalk, and has since peeled off three more victories without Bogut. On Friday night, the Bucks topped Philadelphia 95-90, barely cashing as a 4½-point road favorite to move to 8-0 ATS in their last eight games. In the past six games, Milwaukee is allowing just 89.8 ppg, while scoring an average of 95.5 ppg.
Boston is on a 2-5 SU and ATS slide that currently has them sitting fourth in the Eastern Conference playoff standings, one spot ahead of Milwaukee. Last night, the Celtics were dealt a surprising 106-96 home loss to lowly Washington as a hefty 11½-point chalk. Doc Rivers’ troops hit just 38 of 90 shots (42.2 percent), including a 9-for-25 effort from long distance and an 11-for-19 performance at the line, following a five-game stretch in which they averaged a whopping 110.2 ppg on a stellar 54.1 percent shooting.
Milwaukee is 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings in this rivalry (2-3 SU) and it is 3-0-1 ATS in the last four Bradley Center clashes. The underdog is also 4-0-1 ATS in the last five contests, with Milwaukee most recently winning 86-84 a month ago to push as a two-point home favorite. That makes the home team 5-1 SU in the last six head-to-head matchups.
The Bucks are on nothing but positive ATS sprees, including 42-17-1 overall, 8-0 on Saturday, 4-0 at home, 4-0 against winning teams, 14-3-1 against the Atlantic Division, 20-7-1 laying points and 18-3 this year when playing on back-to-back days. The Celtics, despite their recent woes, own ATS streaks of 6-1 when going on no rest, 4-2 against East Conference opponents, 4-1-1 against Central Division foes and 52-25-2 as a road ‘dog.
Boston is on “over” stretches of 5-1 overall, 4-0 against the Central Division, 5-2 as an underdog and 6-2 against the Eastern Conference. The over is also 3-0-1 in Milwaukee’s last four home starts, but the under for the Bucks is on runs of 6-0-1 on Saturday, 7-1-1 as a home chalk of less than five points, 4-1 against Atlantic Division foes and 34-16-1 in the Eastern Conference. Finally, the total has stayed low in the last three meetings in this rivalry, after a 3-1 “over” span.
ATS ADVANTAGE: MILWAUKEE
San Antonio (48-31, 42-36-1 ATS) at Denver (52-27, 34-39-6 ATS)
The Nuggets, currently clinging to the No. 2 seed in the Western Conference playoff chase, go for their fifth win in a row when they host the Spurs at the Pepsi Center.
Denver squeaked past the Lakers 98-86 Thursday night, narrowly covering as a 1½-point home chalk. The Nuggets are 3-1 ATS during their four-game winning streak, following an 0-8-1 ATS nosedive (3-6 SU). George Karl’s troops are averaging 106.6 ppg, good for third in the league, while allowing 102.0, and on the home floor, Denver puts up a hefty 110.3 ppg, while yielding 100.9.
San Antonio has followed a 6-1 SU and ATS surge by losing its last two games SU and ATS. After an 11-point Wednesday night setback at Phoenix, the Spurs returned home as a 10½-point chalk against Memphis and laid an egg in a 107-99 loss last night. In the five outings prior to that upset, the Spurs were averaging 105.4 ppg on robust 50.4 percent shooting, while allowing 96.2 ppg on 45.1 percent shooting.
In the last contest between these rivals, San Antonio went on the road and pounded Denver 111-92 as a 5½-point pup, halting a 4-1 SU (3-2 ATS) run by the Nuggets. In fact, the Spurs are 9-3 ATS on their last dozen trips to the Mile High City, and the road team has cashed in the last seven clashes between these two, all from the underdog role.
The Nuggets are on ATS skids of 3-9-1 overall and 0-5-1 after a day off, though they are also 19-9 ATS in their last 28 starts against the Southwest Division and 10-1 ATS in their last 11 at home against teams with a winning road record. The Spurs are on spread-covering surges of 16-6 overall, 4-0 against the Northwest Division, 5-1 on Saturday, 5-1 against winning teams, 10-3 in the West and 9-4 on the highway.
Denver sports a handful of “under” streaks, including 6-1 overall, 5-0 after a day off, 5-1 at the Pepsi Center, 21-6 against winning teams, 7-3 on Saturday and 9-4 against Southwest Division opposition. Likewise, San Antonio is on “under” rolls of 5-0-1 against the Northwest Division, 4-1-1 on the highway, 4-1 on Saturday and 23-6 against winning teams.
Finally, in this rivalry, the total has stayed low in 22 of the last 29 meetings overall (3-0 last three) and 12 of the last 17 in Denver.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
AMERICAN LEAGUE
N.Y. Yankees (2-2) at Tampa Bay (3-1)
The Yankees look to rebound from a Friday beatdown when they send ace CC Sabathia (0-0, 8.44 ERA) to the hill against the Rays and youngster Wade Davis (2-2, 3.72 ERA in 2009) as this three-game weekend series continues at Tropicana Field.
New York got flattened in Friday night’s opener, losing 9-3 as newly acquired Javier Vazquez got tagged for eight runs (all earned) on eight hits and three walks in just 5 2/3 innings. The onslaught came in just two innings, with the Yanks yielding five runs in the fourth and another four in the sixth. Despite the setback, the defending world champions remain on runs of 54-23 overall, 42-17 in the A.L. East and 40-17 against winning teams.
Tampa Bay is on upswings dating to last season of 9-3 overall, 12-3 in the division, 45-20 at home and 17-5 on Saturday. The Rays’ victory Friday comes after a 9-3 tear by the Yankees in this rivalry, with Tampa still just 8-11 in its last 19 home starts against New York.
Sabathia is coming off a poor showing at Boston in Sunday’s season opener, giving up five runs (all earned) on six hits and two walks in 5 1/3 innings. He blew a 5-1 lead, but didn’t factor in the decision as the Yanks lost 9-7. That followed a dominating stretch to end the 2009 season in which the hefty lefty went 12-2 with a paltry 2.09 ERA in 17 starts (including playoffs), with New York going 15-2 in that span. New York is on further runs behind Sabathia of 20-7 overall, 4-0 on Saturday, 11-2 against winning teams and 8-2 on the highway.
Sabathia is 7-3 with a 3.19 ERA in 15 career starts against Tampa Bay, but he was 0-2 with a 5.79 ERA in four starts against the Rays last year. Both losses came at Tropicana by a combined score of 19-6, with the left-hander allowing all six runs (five earned) in a 6-2 loss in July and nine runs (five earned) in a 13-4 pasting at the beginning of October.
Davis got all his major league experience in the final month of 2009 season, with Tampa Bay winning three of his last four starts, in which he went 2-1 with a 2.02 ERA, allowing six runs in 26 2/3 innings. However, the one loss was against the Yanks, a 10-2 home ripping in the regular-season finale, with Davis allowing five runs (three earned) on six hits and two walks in five innings. Including that outing, Davis was 1-1 with a 2.55 ERA in four starts at Tropicana Field.
New York is on a bundle of “over” tears, including 7-1 overall, 8-1-1 on the road, 6-0 against winning teams, 15-2 in Sabathia’s last 17 road starts and 10-1 with Sabathia facing a winning team on the highway. On the flip side, Tampa is on “under” surges of 7-3 overall (5-1 last six) -- with all those games at home and inside the A.L. East – and 8-3 against lefty starters.
ATS ADVANTAGE: N.Y. YANKEES
Boston (1-3) at Kansas City (2-2)
The Red Sox, aiming to snap a three-game skid, trot out Josh Beckett (0-0, 9.64 ERA) to face the Royals and reigning Cy Young Award winner Zack Greinke (0-0, 1.50 ERA) at Kauffman Stadium.
Boston blew a 3-0 lead Friday night in the opener of this three-game series, giving up a broken-bat, two-run single from Rick Ankiel in the eighth inning for the deciding runs in a 4-3 loss. The Red Sox are still 42-18 in their last 60 games against the A.L. Central, but they are in ruts of 1-6 overall, 0-5 on the road and 2-7 against right-handed starters.
Ankiel also had a solo homer last night for Kansas City, but despite notching their second victory of the season, the Royals remain on a flood of negative streaks, including 2-5 overall, 3-10 against righty starters, 16-35 at home, 54-115 against A.L. East foes and 50-105 on Saturday.
Beckett looks to bounce back from a trying start against the Yankees in Sunday’s season opener. He allowed five runs on five hits (two homers) and three walks, with just one strikeout in 4 2/3 innings, but his teammates got him off the hook with a no-decision as Boston rallied for a 9-7 home victory. Behind Beckett, the Sox are on rolls of 20-9 overall, 4-0 on Saturday, 10-2 after five days’ rest and 17-4 against the A.L. Central.
Beckett has a perfect career mark against K.C., going 5-0 with a solid 2.03 ERA in seven starts, winning both his outings last year while posting a suffocating 1.20 ERA. That included a 9-2 rout in Kansas City in September, in which the right-hander allowed 12 hits, but just the two runs and one walk while striking out seven. On the road last year, the right-hander was 7-5 with a 4.13 ERA.
Greinke had a respectable outing in the Royals’ season opener against Detroit, allowing two runs (one earned) on six hits and a walk in six innings, but the bullpen gave up six runs in the seventh inning of an 8-4 home loss. Kansas City is 5-1 in Greinke’s last six starts against losing teams, but has won just three of the righty’s last 15 Saturday outings and one of his last five against the A.L. East.
Greinke is 1-2 with a 3.49 ERA in four career appearances (three starts) against Boston, with the victory coming in his lone start against the Sox last year. In that September contest, he threw six shutout innings, allowing two hits and three walks while striking out five in a 5-1 home victory. At home last year, Greinke was 10-3 with a stout 1.70 ERA in 17 starts
The over is on a 9-4 run for Boston with Beckett on the mound, but othereise the under for the Sox is on upswings of 14-6-1 on Saturday and 5-0 on the highway. The over is 5-2 in K.C.’s last seven games overall and 6-3 in its last nine at home, but with Greinke taking the pill, the under is on sprees of 7-3-1 overall, 6-2-1 at home and 20-8 with the righty going on four days’ rest.
Finally, last night’s contest fell just short of the 9½-run total, but the over is still 7-4 in the last 11 meetings overall and 5-2 in the last seven clashes in Kansas City.
ATS ADVANTAGE: KANSAS CITY
DUNKEL INDEX
Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati
The Cubs look to take advantage of a Cincinnati team that is 0-6 in Aaron Harang's last 6 starts against the NL Central. Chicago is the pick (+105) according to Dunkel, which has the Cubs favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+105)
Game 951-952: Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Zambrano) 15.149; Cincinnati (Harang) 14.295
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-125); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+105); Over
Game 953-954: Washington at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: Washington (Lannan) 15.055; NY Mets (Perez) 14.368
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+110); Over
Game 955-956: St. Louis at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Garcia) 15.601; Milwaukee (Gallardo) 15.221
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Milwaukee (-140); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+120); Under
Game 957-958: Philadelphia at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Moyer) 14.778; Houston (Paulino) 13.666
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-145); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-145); Over
Game 959-960: LA Dodgers at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Padilla) 14.973; Florida (Johnson) 15.675
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Florida (-150); 8
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-150); Over
Game 961-962: San Diego at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Latos) 14.477; Colorado (Hammel) 15.651
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Colorado (-150); 10
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-150); Under
Game 963-964: Pittsburgh at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Duke) 15.240; Arizona (Haren) 14.640
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Arizona (-250); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+210); Under
Game 965-966: Atlanta at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Lowe) 15.500; San Francisco (Wellemeyer) 15.303
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-125); 9
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-125); Under
Game 967-968: Cleveland at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Talbot) 15.070; Detroit (Bonderman) 14.639
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Detroit (-170); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+150); Under
Game 969-970: Minnesota at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Baker) 15.928; White Sox (Garcia) 15.535
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-130); Under
Game 971-972: NY Yankees at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Sabathia) 15.749; Tampa Bay (Davis) 15.620
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-145); 9
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-145); Over
Game 973-974: Seattle at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Hernandez) 15.545; Texas (Harrison) 14.411
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Seattle (-145); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-145); Under
Game 975-976: Toronto at Baltimore
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Eveland) 15.020; Baltimore (Hernandez) 16.009
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Baltimore (-145); 9
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-145);
Game 977-978: Boston at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Boston (Beckett) 15.420; Kansas City (Greinke) 14.528
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Boston (-120); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-120); Over
Game 979-980: Oakland at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland (Sheets) 15.348; LA Angels (Weaver) 16.002
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 1/2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-155); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-155); Under
Marc Lawrence
Boston Red Sox at Kansas City Royals
Prediction: Kansas City Royals
When the Royals send ace right hander Zach Greinke to the hill against the Red Sox tonight they will do so knowing, despite dropping the season opener this year, Greinke has cashed in nine of his last 11 team starts in April. On the flip side Boston has now lost 14 of its last 21 road games during the opening month of the campaign. With that we'll back last year's Cy Young winner as a home dog here today.
MTi Sports
Atlanta Hawks at Washington Wizards
Prediction: Washington Wizards
The Wizards are 5-0 ATS (+11.9 ppg) with no rest after a double-digit win in which they scored more than 25% of their points from the free throw line and the Hawks are 0-9 ATS (-8.3 ppg) as a favorite after a win in which they scored more than 25% of their points from the free throw line. In addition, Atlanta is 0-5 ATS (-12.0 ppg) on Saturday after playing on Friday and 0-4 ATS (-10.8 ppg) as a favorite when both they and their opponent have no rest. Finally, the Wizards are 6-0 ATS (+12.2 ppg) as a dog with no rest after a double-digit win in which the percentage of their baskets that were assisted was at least ten percentage points higher than their season-to-date average. Grab the points.
Rob Vinciletti
New Jersey Nets vs. Indiana Pacers
Play: Over 209.5
This game fits a high scoring totals system that is 21-4 to the over. What we want to do is play on certain homers to go over the total if they scored 110 or more on the road in their last game and their opponent tonight scored 120 or more at home and tonight's total is 200 or higher. The Nets were able to pull one out last night against Chicago in overtime 127-116. The Pacers won in Cleveland 116-113. I agree that some of these teams may go through the motions and are playing out the string. However there are some very solid late season systems and indicators that do well year in and year out. This game should be a high flying game with little or no defense. Take the Over here tonight.
BIG AL
Detroit @ Charlotte Bobcats
PICK: Charlotte Bobcats
In its franchise's history, Charlotte is a super 44-27 ATS at home off a loss, if it is matched up against a foe off a straight-up win. Last night, Charlotte lost to the Rockets at the Toyota Center, while Detroit stunned the Miami Heat 106-99, as 11.5-point underdogs. That victory was Detroit's third straight, and it also snapped Miami's nine-game win streak. Still, Detroit's bound for the Lottery this off-season, and will likely be without stars Richard Hamilton (ankle) and Rodney Stuckey (ribs) once again. With Charlotte still fighting for playoff positioning with the 6th-place Heat, we'll back the Bobcats at home vs. the Pistons on this Saturday evening. Lay the points.
DAVID CHAN
Seattle Mariners @ Texas Rangers
PICK: Seattle Mariners
King Felix got no help from his relievers in the seventh inning and left with a no-decision against the A’s on Monday. He was a little bit wild, but that effort came after a sizzling spring and I expect him to battle back strongly here.
Hernandez utterly dominated the Rangers last year.
Matt Harrison will be the Rangers’ fifth starter for now but in good-sized chunks of two major league seasons he’s never shown the ability to get big leaguers out. He posted 42 K in 83.2 IP in 2008, and could not step up in 2009 when he had 34 K in 63.1 IP.
I think the right price on this game is Mariners -165 to -175. Opening prices in the overnight markets indicate -145 or better. At less than -150, they’re very attractive.
Jim Feist
Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers
Play: Seattle Mariners -135
Texas is a hitter's park, so it helps to have overpowering stuff. That's not the case with Texas lefty Matt Harrison, who is off a season with a 6.11 ERA. Opponents his .316 off him! It's the visiting team, Seattle, that has the guy with overpowering stuff. Righty Felix Hernandez is an ace, one of the top pitchers in the game, and he's going at a cheap price here. Play the Mariners.
EZWINNERS
Minnesota Twins -130
Freddy Garcia beat out prospect Daniel Hudson for the final spot in the starting rotation for the White Sox but I don't expect him to be there long. Unless Freddy pitches a lot better then he did in spring training he will be on a very short leash. Garcia allowed 17 runs on 23 hits in 8 2/3 innings over his final two Cactus League appearances and I don't expect him to fare much better in this game against the Twins. Scott Baker was not very good on opening day, but I like him to bounce back here. Play on Minnesota.
Cajun Sports
Detroit Pistons @ Charlotte Bobcats
Selection: Charlotte Bobcats
The Detroit Pistons travel to Carolina to face the host Charlotte Bobcats in a Saturday evening affair. Detroit is not playoff bound and they are a bit banged up with Hamilton, Stuckey and possibly Maxiell out for this contest. This causes problems for the Pistons facing a very motivated and physical Bobcats squad. Both teams are coming in off of games last night and this situation sets up well for Charlotte because the Pistons are a miserable 5-15 ATS in the second game of a back-to-back while the Bobcats come in with a 14-6 ATS mark in the same situation. Charlotte is coming off a loss to the Rockets in Houston while Detroit shocked the Heat in Miami. The Bobcats are 30-9 at home this season averaging 98.5 points per game while holding opponents to 91.5 points per game. The Pistons are 9-30 on the road this season averaging 94.4 points per game while allowing their opponents to score 101.7 points per game. Detroit is 6-16-1 ATS their last 23 road games when facing teams with a home winning percentage greater than .600. The Pistons are 1-5 ATS their last 6 after scoring 100 or more points and 2-8-1 ATS their last 11 games playing with no rest. Charlotte is a perfect 5-0-1 ATS following a straight up loss in their last game. The Bobcats are 7-1-1 ATS when their opponent is coming off a game where they scored 100 or more points and 22-9-1 ATS when playing with no rest. The last two meetings between these clubs this season has seen the host win by double-digits and we expect the Bobcats to continue that trend tonight. Lay the points with the boys from Charlotte as they win and cover over a disinterested Pistons team on Saturday night.
PROJECTED FORECAST: 2* Charlotte Bobcats 112 Detroit Pistons 89
Tom Freese
San Antonio Spurs at Denver Nuggets
Prediction: Denver Nuggets
San Antonio is led in scoring by Tim Duncan and 17.9 points and 10.2 rebounds a game. Shooting guard Manu Ginobili scores 16.5 points a game. Point guard Tony Parker scores 16.2 points a game. The Spurs score 101.1 points a game. San Antonio is 8-17 ATS their last 25 games when playing the second of back to back nights. Denver is nice spot here as they play a Spurs team that played last night and now they must travel to Denver where the air is rare. Forward Carmelo Anthony scores 28.4 points a game. Point guard Chauncey Billups scores 19.6 points a game. Shooting guard J.R. Smith scores 15.4 points a game. The Nuggets score 106.6 points a game. Denver is 10-1 ATS their last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning home record and they are 10-3-3 ATS their last 16 games vs. a team with a win percentage of over 60%. PLAY ON DENVER
VEGAS EXPERTS
Oakland Athletics at Los Angeles Angels
Play: Los Angeles Angels
After winning their opening game against Minnesota, the Los Angeles Angels have lost four straight games to open up with a 1-4 record on the season. They look for their ace to get his second win of the year tonight against an Oakland team that has started out 4-1. In Weaver’s last start against Oakland he went five scoreless innings and earned the victory. Oakland’s Ben Sheets has not faced the Angels since 2004. At home and with desperation, we like the Angels to win this one for the second victory of the season.
Matt Fargo
San Diego Padres vs. Colorado Rockies
Play: San Diego Padres
Colorado won this series opener last night behind a masterful performance from Jorge De La Rosa as he allowed just one hit and one walk while striking out nine in seven shutout innings. The Padres offense has come out of the gates rather slow which is far from a surprise but they should get the bats going tonight following last night. They square off against Jason Hammel who is making his first start of the season after a very average year in his first year with the Rockies last year. He went 10-8 but posted a 4.33 ERA and 1.39 WHIP while allowing opponents to hit .290 over 30 starts and four relief appearances. One offense he had trouble against was San Diego as he had a 5.79 ERA and 1.71 WHIP in four starts against the Padres with three of those coming at home. Speaking of home, he fared much better away from Coors Field with a 3.13 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 15 starts compared to a 5.73 ERA and 1.62 WHIP in 15 starts in Denver. Hammel will be opposed by Mat Latos who had a decent rookie season last year. He allowed two runs or fewer in seven of his 10 starts after his July call up and if not for the blowups, his numbers would have been excellent. His two best starts of the season last year came on the road where he put up a 1.20 WHIP and .211 BAA in six starts. He faces Colorado once last season with mixed results but that was his Major League debut so things were different then as opposed to now. 3* San Diego Padres
BEN BURNS
Florida Panthers @ Tampa Bay Lightning
PICK: Tampa Bay Lightning -135
These teams have played four times so far this season. The Panthers have won both meetings when they've been the host team, while the teams have split the two meetings here at Tampa.
Looking back further and we find the Lightning have won 11 of the last 19 meetings, when hosting the Panthers.
The Lightning are a somewhat respectable 20-14-6 at home. While that's not "great," it's a lot better than Florida's 16-21-3 mark on the road.
With this being the home finale for the Lightning and with these two teams scheduled to close out their respective seasons at Florida on Sunday, I expect the Lightning to be the "hungrier," or more motivated, team. That's particularly true with Florida having won the last three meetings in this "instate rivalry." That should be enough for the Lightning to close out their home slate by giving the home fans a victory. Consider Tampa Bay.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Seattle Mariners -141
Look for the Mariners to end their losing streak behind ace Felix Hernandez Saturday. Hernandez has owned the Rangers in recent meetings and Seattle is 4-0 in his last 4 starts against them as a result. The Mariners are 11-3 in Hernandez's last 14 road starts and 21-7 in his last 28 starts as a favorite. The Mariners are also an impressive 11-4 in their last 15 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150. The Rangers really haven't gotten their stick going yet this season so I like the chances of Hernandez shutting them down today.