Stan Lisowski
SAN FRANCISCO
Giants are hot opening the season undefeated. They have won 8 of the past 9 meetings at home vs. Atlanta. Against right-handed starters on this field, the Giants are 39-22.
JR O'Donnell
Tampa Bay Rays/NY Yankees Over 9
Big boy CC gets rocked today boys by the Red Hot Tampa Bay crew. He is traditionally a slow starter, the Yanks hurler is hosting a dreadful 8+ era in 5 short innings so far. The Yanks will do some damage to Wade Davis who last outing vs the Pinstripes yielded 10 runs. We note that the Over is on a smooth 8-1-1 in NYY last 10 road games and today's afternoon affair. We have been crushing so far on the hardwood and we will carry that mojo over to this OVER YANKEES/TB RAYS game today.
Craig Trapp
Cleveland vs. Detroit
Play: Over 9
Two inexperienced starters take the mound today plus two explosive offenses equal a ton of fireworks and an easy over. Robertson for the Tigers has only made one start in over the last two years, and Talbot for CLE has made 3 starts in the last three years. Talbot ERA is 11.17 as a starter. DET is averaging 5.2 runs per game and CLE is averaging 3 runs per game. Today expect a few early against these starters but really will get cranked up as the bullpens will be in the game in the 4th inning.
Lee Kostroski
Toronto Blue Jays @ Baltimore Orioles
PICK: Toronto Blue Jays
I was very surprised when this line opened at Baltimore -150. I guess some others were also as the line has now dropped to -140. As you might be able to tell, I am on the Blue Jays in this one.
Jay starter Dana Eveland came over in a trade from Oakland in February. After struggling for the most part in his nine starts for the A's last year, he has been given "new life" with Toronto and has taken advantage of it. He grabbed the final spot in the Blue Jay rotation with an impressive spring performance sporting an ERA of 1.23. The Orioles are very unfamiliar for the most part with Eveland which gives the advantage to the pitcher. Baltimore batters as a whole have only 10 total at bats vs. Eveland. The southpaw may look like a Cy Young contender today vs. a Baltimore team that has been terrible vs. left handers. Last season, the O's were just 24-37 vs. lefties and they are at it again this year hitting just .200 vs. southpaws so far early in the year.
Baltimore starter David Hernandez really has not business being favored by this lofty number. This is a pitcher that was 4-10 last season with an ERA of 5.42. He allowed a whopping 164 base runners in his 101 innings of work in 2009. He is facing a Toronto team that has started the season with a 3-1 record and their only loss was a 9th inning come from behind win for Texas in the season opener.
When we move past the starters here, Toronto has the better bullpen with a 2.79 ERA so far on the year. The Orioles relievers have a lofty 4.72 ERA early in the season. Baltimore also will most likely be without one of their top players tonight as Brian Roberts left last night's game with an abdominal problem. Camden Yards has not proven to be a huge home field advantage (or any advantage for that matter) as Baltimore is just 39-44 their last 83 home games. I'll take the underdog in this one.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Colorado Rockies -1.5 +120
We cashed in with the Rockies on the run line for our free selection Friday as they crushed the Padres 7-0. I like their chances of beating San Diego by 2 or more runs again today so we'll role with them again here. We can't ignore the fact that Colorado is an impressive 33-8 as a favorite of -150 or more over the last 2 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 6.6 to 4.2. It is also an impressive 20-4 as a home favorite of -150 to -200 over the last 2 seasons, winning these games by an average score of 7.1 to 4.0. Considering the Rockies are 8-2 in Jason Hammel's last 10 starts as a home favorite, I'd say the odds are in our favor here.
DUNKEL INDEX
Dallas at Sacramento
The Mavericks look to build on their 8-2 ATS record in their last 10 road games. Dallas is the pick (-4) according to Dunkel, which has the Mavericks favored by 6 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-4)
Game 501-502: New Jersey at Indiana
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 112.251; Indiana 126.781
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 14 1/2; 211
Vegas Line & Total: Indiana by 9 1/2; 208 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (-9 1/2); Over
Game 503-504: Detroit at Charlotte
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 116.403; Charlotte 121.413
Dunkel Line & Total: Charlotte by 5; 185
Vegas Line & Total: Charlotte by 5 1/2; 187 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+5 1/2); Under
Game 505-506: Atlanta at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 122.344; Washington 114.857
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 7 1/2; 191
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 5 1/2; 195 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-5 1/2); Under
Game 507-508: Philadelphia at Memphis
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 108.712; Memphis 120.634
Dunkel Line & Total: Memphis by 12; 211
Vegas Line & Total: Memphis by 6 1/2; 205
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (-6 1/2); Over
Game 509-510: Boston at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 118.290; Milwaukee 122.474
Dunkel Line & Total: Milwaukee by 4; 194
Vegas Line & Total: Milwaukee by 1 1/2; 190
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-1 1/2); Over
Game 511-512: San Antonio at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 120.193; Denver 123.783
Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 3 1/2; 198
Vegas Line & Total: Denver by 7; 200
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (+7); Under
Game 513-514: Dallas at Sacramento
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 121.174; Sacramento 114.599
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 6 1/2; 200
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas 4; 197
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-4); Over
Game 515-516: Golden State at LA Clippers
Dunkel Ratings: Golden State 111.363; LA Clippers 110.968
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 220
Vegas Line & Total: LA Clippers by 3; 229 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Golden State (+3); Under
NHL
Buffalo at Ottawa
The Sabres look to take advantage of an Ottawa team that is 2-9 in its last 11 games when playing with 1 day of rest. Buffalo is the pick (+130) according to Dunkel, which has the Sabres favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+130)
Game 51-52: Carolina at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 11.785; Boston 11.924
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-165); 5
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-165); Under
Game 53-54: Edmonton at Los Angeles
Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 11.219; Los Angeles 11.734
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles (-240); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-240); Over
Game 55-56: Buffalo at Ottawa
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 11.559; Ottawa 11.189
Dunkel Line & Total: Buffalo by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Ottawa (-150); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+130); Over
Game 57-58: NY Islanders at New Jersey
Dunkel Ratings: NY Islanders 12.190; New Jersey 11.824
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Islanders by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: New Jersey (-230); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Islanders (+190); Under
Game 59-60: Toronto at Montreal
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 10.350; Montreal 11.078
Dunkel Line & Total: Montreal by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Montreal (-175); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-175); Over
Game 61-62: Pittsburgh at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 11.676; Atlanta 10.333
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-185); 6
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-185); Over
Game 63-64: Florida at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Florida 11.138; Tampa Bay 10.403
Dunkel Line & Total: Florida by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Tampa Bay (-135); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida (+115); Under
Game 65-66: St. Louis at Nashville
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 12.125; Nashville 11.174
Dunkel Line & Total: St. Louis by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Nashville (-160); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+140); Over
Game 67-68: Dallas at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 11.699; Minnesota 11.179
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-120); Under
Game 69-70: Calgary at Vancouver
Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 10.240; Vancouver 10.657
Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-175); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (-175); Under
Game 71-72: Phoenix at San Jose
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 12.228; San Jose 12.326
Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose by 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-190); 5
Dunkel Pick: San Jose (-190); Over
SPORTS WAGERS
BALTIMORE –½ -1.02 over Toronto (1st 5 innings)
The Orioles bullpen is a complete train wreck and it’s for that reason the play here is the Orioles laying a half run in the first five frames. The Jays will send out Dana Eveland and for now he’s the team’s fifth starter. The problem, however, is that he’s really about the seventh man on the starting rotation totem poll and only injuries to other potential starters has this guy pushed up to that spot. Eveland had a good spring by walking just four guys, striking out 18 and going 0-1 with a 1.71 ERA in 21 innings of work. However, he always has a good spring but completely folds once the chips are down and that’s a big problem. Last year pitching mostly in a pitcher’s park, Eveland’s ERA was 7.16 but that’s not the most alarming number. His WHIP was an off the charts at 2.18 and his BAA was .365. His career WHIP is 1.70 and his career ERA is 5.54. He’s a reliever half the time and a spot starter and the only reason he’s still around is because he’s a lefty. He’s never had success at this level in 83 major league appearances and there’s no reason to believe that’s about to change. The Jays are off to a good start but they’ve faced some bad pitchers in some favorable spots and they’ve been drawing a lot of walks, which has led to runs. Fact is, they’re hitting just .233 as a team and have a lot of flaws in the batting line-up. They’ll face David Hernandez here and the one good thing about Hernandez is that he throws strikes. He showed flashes in his rookie year and he’s coming off a strong spring in which he walked just three and struck out 20 in 15 innings. O’s have a big edge on offense and a bigger edge on the mound and thus, we’ll take the bullpen out of this equation. Play: Baltimore in the first five innings -½ -1.02 (Risking 2.04 units to win 2).
Philadelphia –1½ +1.22 over HOUSTON
Let’s see now. The Phillies are 3-1 and the Astros are 0-4. The Phillies are batting a combined .344 and have scored 32 runs in four games while the Astros are batting .204 and have scored six runs in four games. That’s right, 0-4 with six runs scored. Now the Astros have to rely on Felipe Paulino to get them off the mattress and chances are that’s not going to work out too well. Paulino surrendered 126 hits in 97 frames last season for a BAA of .317. He went 3-11 with a 6.27 ERA and a 1.67 WHIP. Aside from having awful numbers, he’s going to feel the weight of an 0-4 start for the team and when you break it down, that first win is getting harder with each passing day. Mentally, the Astros are in trouble before this one begins. The Phillies are in a great state of mind, as they’re seeing beach balls to open the year and you know for sure they’ll want to produce for Jamie Moyer. Moyer will go down as one of the best stories in baseball history and everybody not in an Astros uniform will be pulling for him and you can triple that for his teammates. He’s 47 going on 30 and seldom does he walk anyone. In fact, this past spring he walked one batter in 26.2 innings while striking out 23 and posting a 2.02 ERA. The Astros are seeing BB’s and they won’t be helped out by the walk here. Play: Philadelphia –1½ +1.22 (Risking 2 units).
San Diego +1.46 over COLORADO (1st 5 innings)
When playing on teams that find ways to lose, (like the Padres, Pirates, Nats and Indians to name a few), it’s recommended that you play them in the first five innings rather than the full game and this is a good example of that. This choice is based on the starting pitchers and thus, there’s no reason to play the full game. Matt Latos is a guy to keep your eye on. He has tremendous stuff, he had a decent 10-game test last season in which he started all 10 games and allowed just 43 hits in 50 innings. That’s some invaluable major-league experience and he’s coming off a tremendous spring in which he went 3-0 with a 1.59 ERA in 17 innings of work. He also struck out 14 and walked just five. The kid can pitch. Jason Hammel has never gotten off to a good April start in three years in the majors. He’s been taken deep six times in 37 April innings over his career and his ERA over that span is an unimpressive 5.66. He’s coming off a very average year and a very average spring in which his ERA was 4.66 after allowing 28 hits and 15 runs in 24 frames. Against the Padres in his career, Hammel is 0-0 in five starts with a 5.33 ERA and a BAA of .302. Play: San Diego in the first five innings +1.46 (Risking 2 units).
Wunderdog
Atlanta Hawks vs. Washington Wizards
Play: Under 194
The Washington Wizards lost a lot of offense when Gilbert Arenas was suspended, then they traded away their best scoring options to Dallas for Josh Howard, who is also now on the shelf. It has left the Wizards’ offense at a point where they have reached 100 points just three times in their last 23 games. They are forced to play in the half-court, so the opponents are not getting theirs either with just three games of 100+ in the last 14. The Hawks have topped the 100-point mark just two times in their last 10, and both of those were at home. Washington is 10-2 to the UNDER off a straight-up win, and 41-19 to the UDER in their last 60 posted as a dog. I'll go with the UNDER in this one.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Spurs/Nuggets UNDER 200
Play Under on any team (SAN ANTONIO) - extremely tired team - playing 9 or more games in 14 days, in a game involving two good teams (60% to 75%), are 38-15 since 1996, including 14-5 the last 5 seasons. And we are only seeing 182.1 points scored in these spots on average. In addition, Denver has played to the Under in 10 of its last 12. Take the Under tonight.
SPORTS WAGERS
Toronto +1.93 over MONTREAL
This is about as big as it gets in the city of Montreal, as the Canadiens need to win this one to assure themselves a playoff spot. That’s nice, it really is and they’ll be completely jacked up but they also had a chance to lock up a spot against the Hurricanes on Thursday and failed to do so in a 5-2 loss. So, if they couldn’t beat the Canes under “must win” conditions, why should we trust they’ll beat the Maple Leafs under similar circumstances? What we all know for sure is that this is the Maple Leafs “seventh game” and they’ll show up tonight in anticipation of knocking the Habs out. It really doesn’t get more dramatic than this for either side and of course the Habs can win. However, the tag here on the Leafs is just so appealing because the Habs are not playing well, they’re really not that good outside of their goaltending and a Leafs win here would surprise absolutely nobody. Big overlay. Play: Toronto +1.93 (Risking 2 units).