Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, April 13

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

Toronto at Kansas City
The Royals look to bounce back from last night's 8-4 loss to the Blue Jays and build on their 7-1 record in their last 8 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. Kansas City is the pick (-130) according to Dunkel, which has the Royals favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-130)

Game 901-902: San Francisco at Chicago Cubs (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Bumgarner) 16.402; Cubs (Samardzija) 14.966
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-135); No Total
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-135); N/A

Game 903-904: Atlanta at Washington (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Hudson) 15.658; Washington (Strasburg) 16.256
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Washington (-150); 7
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-150); Under

Game 905-906: Milwaukee at St. Louis (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Gallardo) 13.605; St. Louis (Wainwright) 17.703
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 4; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-170); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-170); Over

Game 907-908: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Cueto) 15.220; Pittsburgh (Locke) 15.471
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-160); 7
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+140); Under

Game 909-910: Philadelphia at Miami (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Hamels) 15.185; Miami (Fernandez) 13.852
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-140); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-140); Over

Game 911-912: LA Dodgers at Arizona (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Ryu) 16.325; Arizona (Kennedy) 15.153
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Arizona (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (+110); Under

Game 913-914: Colorado at San Diego (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Chacin) 15.480; San Diego (Volquez) 14.810
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Colorado (-115); 7
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-115); Over

Game 915-916: Tampa Bay at Boston (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Price) 15.709; Boston (Lester) 15.592
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 917-918: Chicago White Sox at Cleveland (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Sale) 14.399; Cleveland (McAllister) 14.435
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-140); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+120); Over

Game 919-920: Detroit at Oakland (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Verlander) 17.702; Oakland (Anderson) 17.263
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Detroit (-125); 7
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-125); Under

Game 921-922: Baltimore at NY Yankees (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Hammel) 16.088; NY Yankees (Hughes) 15.309
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 8
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 923-924: Toronto at Kansas City (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Dickey) 14.860; Kansas City (Shields) 15.904
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-130); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-130); Over

Game 925-926: Houston at LA Angels (9:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Harrell) 13.121; LA Angels (Richards) 15.009
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-185); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-185); Under

Game 927-928: Texas at Seattle (9:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Ogando) 16.028; Seattle (Saunders) 14.068
Dunkel Line: Texas by 2; 8
Vegas Line: Texas (-155); 7
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-155); Over

Game 929-930: NY Mets at Minnesota (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Mets (Harvey) 15.479; Minnesota (Diamond) 14.767
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-125); 7
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-125); Under

Marc LawrenceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Toronto Blue Jays at Kansas City RoyalsSERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: Kansas City RoyalsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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When James Shields toes the slab against the Blue Jays in Kansas City Saturday evening he will do so knowing he is 14-2 his last sixteen team starts during April, including 10-0 the last ten. In addition, sports a 3-0 mark with a 2.09 ERA in his career team starts against Toronto. With R. A. Dickey still adjusting to life in the Junior Circuit, we recommend a 1-unit play on Kansas City.

Alex SmartFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Detroit vs. OaklandFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Under 7FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Verlander Motowns starter today has pitched well against the As in the past and allowed just one run in his two victories in the American League Division Series against them last season, including a complete-game shutout in the deciding Game 5 conflict. Verlander has started his current campaign in strong form (16 KOs in 13 innings) and Im betting that will continue in this spot! Meanwhile Brett Anderson, starts for the As. He shutdown the Tigers and held them scoreless for six innings in Game 4 of the 2012 ALDS. The Southpaw hurler is a stable 2-2 with a 3.78 ERA in four regular season outings against Detroit. Look for these two top quality starters to help keep this contest on the low side of the number.
Tigers are 5-0 in Verlanders last 5 starts vs. Athletics.Under is 12-3-1 in Andersons last 16 starts vs. American League Central.

Under is 4-0-1 in Athletics last 5 games as a home underdog
Under is 9-1-1 in Verlanders last 11 road starts vs. a team with a winning record
Under is 20-6-5 in Tigers last 31 road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5.
Under is 5-0-1 in the last 6 meetings in Oakland.

Dave CokinFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Colorado Rockies at San Diego PadresFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Colorado RockiesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Okay, I'll get a few negatives out of the way off the top. First, it looks really easy to tab the Rockies here. They're looking like a much improved team, bettors will love that 1.35 Chacin ERA, the Padres are not scaring anyone and Volquez has been awful. So what's not to like about laying one thin dime with Colorado, right? Well....right. All those things are simply accurate. Chacin has been a little on the lucky side. The .216 BABIP will go up, the 94% strand rate won't hold, and like most pitchers who pitch to contact, there are going to be some bad games. But Chacin is generating a load of grounders, he's not issuing free passes, and it might just be that he's really starting to figure things out. One thing that's pretty clear is that the San Diego hitters haven't figured Chacin out. Likely SD starters weight in at just 7/44 with zero HR against Chacin.
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Volquez is another story entirely. His control is never any good, but now Volquez is also failing to get those critical swings and misses. He cannot survive with a 5.0 K rate. There's been a little misfortune so far as evidenced by that nasty .389 BABIP, and the strand rate is absurdly low through the first two starts. In other words, Volquez hasn't been 10.00 ERA bad. In reality, it ought to be about half that. Problem is, 5.00 isn't any good either. I'm also troubled by the downward tick in velocity. With some pitchers, that's just an April thing. But Volquez has never displayed this tendency previously, so I consider that at least a proceed with caution sign, if not an outright red flag.
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The one caveat here is that Volquez has some wildly erratic tendencies. Just when you're ready to toss dirt on his pitching career, he summons up the Volquez we saw prior to the injury issues and there goes your money. In other words, never get overly enthusiastic when it comes to betting against this guy. That said, Chacin is the better arm here, the Rockies are the better team, and at this price, I've got to side with Colorado to get another win against the Padres.

Jim FeistFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Rangers vs. IslandersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Over 5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Islanders have upgraded the offense this season, 5th in the NHL in scoring, but the defense is still soft, 22nd in goals allowed. The Over is 52-25-4 in the Islanders last 81 games following a win and 5-2-1 over the total in their last 8 home games. Into town come the Rangers, and when these city rivals meet the over is 12-4 in the last 16 meetings, including 8-1 over the total in the last 9 meetings in this arena. Play the Rangers/Islanders over the total.

Rob VincilettiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Tampa Bay vs. BostonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Under 8FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This game fits a nice 72% totals system and the pitching also suggests an under here. Lester has been solid for Boston in his 2 starts this season allowing just a pair of earned runs in 12 innings. In his home starts vs Tampa he has stayed under in 4 of the last 5. Today he will oppose David Price. The Husky left has some gaudy numbers here of late going 16 innings allowing just 3 earned runs with both of those starts going under. The Red Sox are hitting .196 vs Left handers and averaging just a shade over 3 runs on the year. Tampa is averaging 2.2 runs and hitting .190 in day games. Look for this one to stay under.

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Anaheim vs. Los AngelesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Los AngelesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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These teams have played each other three times this year and the home side has prevailed each time. I believe this pattern continues tonight as the defending champs look to take advantage of this situation. The Ducks are 27-9-5 overall and 11-3-5 on the road. They're coming off a lacklustre 4-1 setback to Colorado on Wednesday. I've watched this team closely all year, and to me, it definitely now appears that the condensed schedule during the strike shortened season is finally taking its toll on an Anaheim team which has been playing at an extremely high level throughout. And it doesn't get any easier, as the Ducks play five of their last seven away from friendly confines. The Kings are 23-14-4, and 15-4-1 at home. They're coming off a 3-2 win over Colorado on Thursday. LA is 6-2-2 in its last ten, and this veteran club is clearly gearing up for a deep playoff push. While the Ducks have not said who will be in net tonight, the home side will be backed by Jonathan Quick who is a lights-out 6-1-0 with a 2.35 GAA in his last eight vs. Anaheim. Also note that the Ducks are likely to be without the services of defenseman Cam Fowler due to an upper-body injury he sustained in Wednesday's game. A decent price. A motivated home side. I think the Kings are worth a second look in this situation.

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Milwaukee vs. St. LouisFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: St. Louis -1.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Series trends and current form all suggest the Cardinals to be worth a long look on Saturday against the sinking Brewers. These teams are headed in opposite directions, with the Redbirds on a 4-game uptick, and off a 2-0 shutout win on Friday over Milwaukee thanks largely to 7 innings of one-hit pitching by rookie starter Shelby Miller. Meanwhile, the Brewers are sinking at 2-7, and wasted a solid effort by starter Kyle Lohse last night. Note the pitching matchup specifics also favor the Cards; Adam Wainwright has been dominant over 17 career starts in the series, posting a 2.15 ERA. Meanwhile, Brew Crew starter Yovani Gallardo has historically had problems vs. St. Louis, as he's 1-9 with a 6.72 ERA in his 14 career starts against the Redbirds.

BRAD WILTON

Free play for Saturday comes in the NBA on the underdog Clippers plus the points at Memphis.

This game actually has huge ramifications come next week when the playoffs start, as the Clippers currently own the 4th seed, but Memphis owns the better record. Both are gunning for a possible #3 seed in the West, so expect an all-out effort from the clubs tonight with the points and the Clippers being the way to go.

Both teams enter on an upswing, the Clippers wining their last 4 straight up, while the Grizzlies have won 3 straight and 7 of their last 8 straight up.

Tough call for sure, but the points look attractive to me, as the Clippers did eliminate the Grizzlies last May from the postseason, and the visiting team has been able to win the last pair and 4 of the last 5 straight up in this series.

Los Angeles also owns a 3-1-1 spread mark the past 5 played in Memphis, and a 3-1-1 overall spread mark the last 5 games played between the clubs.

Have to take whatever points they are giving in this one.

Clippers the call.

1* L.A. CLIPPERS

CHRIS JORDAN

I like the home underdog to get the money in this one once again. I know, these are the defending World Series champion Giants and these are, well, the Cubbies. But in case you hadn't gotten the message, the home dog is always one of the best bets in sports - whether it's basketball, football, hockey or, yes, baseball - even the Cubbies.

There's that built-in, hidden ingredient that not even an oddsmaker can figure out, and today I like the recipe for an upset at Wrigley Field, as the Cubs caught the Giants in a perfect spot yesterday, after Thursday's marathon between the two.

What the two games proved is the Cubs can hang with Frisco, and now they'll want to take the series lead and at the very least ensure a series tie.

In for a four-game-set, what we have here are the defending champs who arrived a bit overconfident and underestimating anything the Cubs are capable of, and yes, even the baby bears don't like to be disgraced in front of their home fans. Two nights back we saw them break out the bats, only to lose their lead and eventually the game. Yesterday they got the win.

Now let's not start doing cartwheels just because we're being offered a home pup, I mean there are several today - the Pirates, Marlins and Indians are also getting money at home - but I like the Cubs to win back-to-back here.

Trust me here, the Cubbies have set the tone for Saturday and Sunday. This is a value move with an investment on a plus-price. Take Chicago.

3* CHICAGO

CHRIS JORDAN

My second freebie is on the Pittsburgh Pirates, who dealt the Cincinnati Reds their third-straight loss today, and I think will add to the demise as the home pup looking to enjoy the weekend with the hometown crowd.

Look, as most expected, the Bucs have had a rough start to the 2013 campaign, especially with one of the worst offensive lineups in the business. But that doesn't mean they can't win some ballgames here or there. They've caught Cincinnati at the right time, given the Reds are on a losing streak.

And now you add into the mix a tough loss last night, as the Pirates broke out with a 12-hit attack and hung on for a 6-5 win in the opener of a three-game set, uhm, quite honestly, I wouldn't be surprised one bit to see the Reds get swept here.

I know Johnny Cueto is on the hill, but here's the problem with that. When you have a baseball team failing to produce, and your ace takes the hill, you tend to leave it all on his shoulders - ahem, arm - to carry the burden. So if he doesn't get any run support, it makes life harder on him and puts the favorite in distress.

I don't know, I like to play baseball off momentum and value. And it appears the Bucs will have Cincy's number.

4* PITTSBURGH

BRETT ATKINS

My free winner is on the Miami Marlins to get it done as the home underdog, to the Philadelphia Phillies. Forget about the fact this would appear to be a complete mismatch on paper - I know Miami is doing its best intention of supplanting the Houston Astros as the worst team in baseball - I simply think this is a value play with the home pup.

April and May are always the best months for home underdog. Often, it'll take the oddsmakers a month or so to catch on to the "sleeper teams" are just when and where to place the number correctly. But there are also those times they know better about certain teams, and you can read into the line and when it's a good time to take a number.

For instance, don't you find it odd a 1-8 team is the home underdog by such a small number to a team like the Phillies for the second straight night? I would think the number on Philly should be higher - of course I still would have played the home dog theory - but it being lower, it indicates it's the right time to play the Marlins.

All about value in baseball boys.

5* MIAMI

JEFF BENTON

Saturday freebie is the Tigers to cool off the Athletics.

Oakland edged Detroit 4-3 last night, as the A's have now won 9 straight games in the month of April after opening at 0-2.

The A's will be hard-pressed to continue their winning ways, as the Tigers send Justin Verlander to the hill.

Verlander has a 0.49 ERA over this last 5 starts against Oakland, and that includes a pair of wins in last October's division series win over the A's.

Oakland will go with Brett Anderson who has had his success over the Tigers with a 3-1 record his last 4 decisions versus the Motown Cats.

I don't think there will be very many runs scored, but I do think Verlander is able to stop the A's win streak at 9.

Go with Detroit.

3* DETROIT

CRAIG DAVIS

Saturday free play on the O's over the Yanks.

The Yankees won another game yesterday behind the strong outing from lefty CC Sabathia. He's owned the Birds in the past so it was no surprise he got the job done agains last night.

Today, however, is a different story.

While the Yankees are playing good baseball, they are getting ready to get shelled on the defensive side because Phil Hughes toes the slab in hopes of turning around the fortunes of his first start.

Hughes was tagged for four runs (three earned) on eight hits over just four innings of work in a blowout loss to the Detroit Tigers.

Hughes is perennially a slow starter, and his career ERA for the month of April is higher than any other month of the year. October is his second-worst. So what that tells us is Hughes is a slow starter and a weak finisher, but in the middle he does a pretty good job.

Unfortunately for Yankees fans, it's still April and his first start was pretty bad.

I'm not saying this pick is solely based on past performances, but it's hard to argue with how Hughes looked last April and how he looked in his first start of the 2013 campaign.

I'm taking the Orioles to win the game outright as your free play of the day.

2* BALTIMORE