SCOTT DELANEY
My free winner for tonight is going to be on the Seattle Mariners, catching money at home, as the Texas Rangers aren't impressing me enough to think they can come in and dominate this team.
Sure, they won the series opener over Felix Hernandez, but that doesn't mean a thing to me.
What does mean something is how the M's responded - with a win last night.
And my main thought process is the Mariners will be out for revenge for a second-straight night on general principle, and the Rangers will have their guards down once again.
I'm pretty sure the M's thought they'd have a win in the bank in the series opener, with Hernandez on the hill. But it wasn't to be.
The scrappy Mariners got it done last night and I like them to do so once again.
2* SEATTLE
Jimmy Boyd
Atlanta Braves +140
The Atlanta Braves may be the best team in baseball this season so there is always value when they come into a game as a heavy underdog like this. You should always play on road underdogs with a money line of +100 to +150 like Atlanta when they have an excellent bullpen whose WHIP is 1.150 or better and their starting pitcher is playing on 5 or 6 days of rest. This system is 64-38 (63%) over the last 5 seasons.
Atlanta is 19-5 against the money line over the last three seasons when playing in road games vs. poor fielding teams that are averaging 0.75 or more errors per game on the season. The Nationals have 8 errors in 9 games this season. Atlanta is hot offensively scoring 5.7 runs per game against right handed starters. They should be taking batting practice late in the game against a Nationals bullpen that has a 5.76 ERA this season.
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Detroit vs. OaklandFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Under 7FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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With both aces taking the mound this will be a very low scoring game. Verlander is 16-6 to the under when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. Oakland is 36-20 to the under against teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last 2 seasons.
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N.Y. Mets -½ +110 over MINNESOTAFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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1st 5 innings. The Mets bullpen can’t be trusted and Scott Diamond can’t be trusted, thus the five inning wager. Diamond went 12-9 with a 3.54 ERA in 173 innings for the Twins last year. This unremarkable journeyman turned improved control and a groundball spike into a serviceable season. A mind-boggling quality-start/disaster start split accompanied a weak strikeout rate. A reversal of strand percentage fortune caught up to Diamond in the second half but in reality, this is called wringing the most out of what you have. To say Scott Diamond's 2012 success was a surprise would be an understatement. Diamond lost 19 games between Triple-A and a brief stint in the majors in 2011, with a 6.28 ERA. Diamond's skill set lends itself to polarizing results. Either he maintains control and gets lucky again or a few more balls find holes (or the fences) and he's back in the minors by June. Diamond makes his first appearance of the year against a Mets’ team that went off for 16 runs yesterday at this park and that leads the NL in runs scored with 65.
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Matt Harvey faces a team that has lost four straight and that’s never seen him before. Harvey went 3-5 with a 2.73 ERA in 59 frames for the Mets last year. He was touted as a high-ceiling prospect and looked the part in his first taste of big league ball by being dominant in 7 of 10 MLB starts. Harvey’s fastball sits at 92-95 MPH and up to 98 with good life. His best secondary now is his plus slider that shows good depth. To complement his fastball/slider combo, Harvey has a solid curve and changeup. Due to his inconsistent release point, Harvey has had issues commanding his pitches in the past but his progress to establish consistency has paved the way for him to shine this season. In two starts covering 14 innings, Harvey has walked four while striking out 19. His line-drive rate over those first two starts was a miniscule 8%, suggesting that even when batters make contact, they’re getting a fraction of the ball. Harvey has the goods to be a true ace while Diamond has the goods to be a true stiff. Enough said.
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OAKLAND +108 over DetroitFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Most of you are going to see Justin Verlander a cheap price against the A’s and be very tempted to pull the trigger. Verlander is simply one of the best in the business with a well-deserved reputation of being so. He doesn’t need any introductions here because everyone that is reading this knows exactly who Justin Verlander is, what he’s accomplished and what he’s capable of doing every time he takes the mound. That said, the oddsmakers know too and they don’t set bad lines in a game involving Verlander. The trap has been set, don’t spring it because there are plenty of reasons to like the A’s here.
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First, Oakland is red-hot. They fell behind 3-0 early last night against Detroit and didn’t allow another run in a 4-3 comeback win. It was the A’s ninth straight win. They lead the majors in just about every offensive category, including runs scored (70), total bases (199), HR’s (19) and walks drawn (42) to name a few. Enter Brett Anderson, a starter with 70 career starts that pitched just 35 innings last season and posted a 2.57 ERA. Don’t ignore that, as Anderson picked right up where he left off before 2011's Tommy John surgery with outstanding command and groundball rates. He looks even better this year with 16 K’s in 13 frames to go along with an eye-opening 71% groundball rate. Anderson does not need a high strikeout rate to be effective, especially given his pinpoint control and outstanding groundball bias profile. The scary thing is that his strikeout rate has risen too, making Anderson one of the best skill sets in the entire league. It’s conceivable that the A’s could have a 1-0 or 2-0 lead going into the late innings. It’s also conceivable that the game could be decided by the pens and in that regard, we give the Athletics a significant edge. At home with Anderson going and taking back a tag, even against Verlander, the A’s have way too much appeal to ignore.
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OAKLAND +108 over DetroitFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Most of you are going to see Justin Verlander a cheap price against the A’s and be very tempted to pull the trigger. Verlander is simply one of the best in the business with a well-deserved reputation of being so. He doesn’t need any introductions here because everyone that is reading this knows exactly who Justin Verlander is, what he’s accomplished and what he’s capable of doing every time he takes the mound. That said, the oddsmakers know too and they don’t set bad lines in a game involving Verlander. The trap has been set, don’t spring it because there are plenty of reasons to like the A’s here.
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First, Oakland is red-hot. They fell behind 3-0 early last night against Detroit and didn’t allow another run in a 4-3 comeback win. It was the A’s ninth straight win. They lead the majors in just about every offensive category, including runs scored (70), total bases (199), HR’s (19) and walks drawn (42) to name a few. Enter Brett Anderson, a starter with 70 career starts that pitched just 35 innings last season and posted a 2.57 ERA. Don’t ignore that, as Anderson picked right up where he left off before 2011's Tommy John surgery with outstanding command and groundball rates. He looks even better this year with 16 K’s in 13 frames to go along with an eye-opening 71% groundball rate. Anderson does not need a high strikeout rate to be effective, especially given his pinpoint control and outstanding groundball bias profile. The scary thing is that his strikeout rate has risen too, making Anderson one of the best skill sets in the entire league. It’s conceivable that the A’s could have a 1-0 or 2-0 lead going into the late innings. It’s also conceivable that the game could be decided by the pens and in that regard, we give the Athletics a significant edge. At home with Anderson going and taking back a tag, even against Verlander, the A’s have way too much appeal to ignore.
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Texas vs. SeattleFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: SeattleFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Mariners are down a couple of key bats with Michael Morse and Michael Saunders sidelined due to injury, but behind a steady performance from veteran left-hander Joe Saunders, I look for them to find a way to get it done for a second straight night against the Rangers on Saturday.
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Texas starter Alexi Ogando has been lights out through his first two starts of the season, but he can't do it all on Saturday. He's going to need some run support, and I'm not sure he'll get it from a Rangers offense that is suddenly spinning its wheels, having played just five runs over its last three games.
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Note that Ogando has made only one previous start here in Seattle, and that resulted in a 4-3 loss against what was arguably a weaker Mariners club back in May of 2011.
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Joe Saunders hasn't enjoyed much success against the Rangers over the years, but he should bring some confidence to the table tonight after tossing 1/3 innings of shutout ball in his home debut for the Mariners earlier this week. Note that he was sharp in his most recent start against Texas, holding them to only one earned run over 5 2/3 innings in a stunning one-game playoff road victory last October.
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The Mariners have been hot-and-cold offensively this season, but they have proven to be an opportunistic bunch, and haven't been held under three runs in their last eight contests. I believe this will be a relatively low-scoring affair, and I give the Mariners bullpen the slight edge in the latter innings on this night.
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NY Mets at MinnesotaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: New YorkFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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So the word is out on New York's Matt Harvey being one of the premier young arms in the game. In two starts, the big right hander racked up 19 strikeouts and allowed only four hits. I wasn't big fan of the Mets extending him last time out – they were up 7-1 and Harvey was at 95 pitches prior to sending him out for the seventh inning. This is not the type of arm you want to mess with. But for the time being we have a premium arm that in a few more starts will be commanding a premium price. Minnesota sends Scott Diamond to the hill. He had off-season surgery and was brought along slowly during spring training. With cold weather and a pitch count I'm not expecting a top notch performance from Diamond. Also note that shadows have a big impact on early season mid-afternoon games at Target Field. It is expected to be partly cloudy but if the sun peaks in, hitting Harvey could be damn near impossible. Harvey’s studness certainly reflected in the line but a month from now it'll seem cheap.
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New York Mets at MinnesotaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Minnesota +120FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The New York Mets' offense ignited for 16 runs last night vs. the Twins in a game that was never in jeopardy. The disturbing part for Mets fans is the fact that the Mets' staff has now allowed 5 or more runs in each of the last three games, and 20 in all. The Twins have their best option on the mound today in Scott Diamond. Diamond was 12-9 with a 3.54 ERA a year ago for the Twins, and considering how bad Minnesota was, those numbers were superb. The Mets' offense has been held in check vs. left-handed pitching where they are 5-17 in their last 22, and have dropped four straight on the road against them. The Twins have always been impressive at home in interleague play, and carry the value in this one. Go with Minnesota.
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Los Angeles Clippers at Memphis GrizzliesFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: Los Angeles ClippersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Memphis was able to squeak out a tough win in Houston last night, but now have to go back home and play unrested against a Clippers team that has played then very well this season. LA won the first meeting this year by nine (as a 4.5-point favorite), then won here in Memphis in a 99-73 blowout (as a 4.5-point underdog). Memphis won the previous game at the Staples Center in a 96-85 final score, however the Grizzlies shot 54% in that game and we don't look for another strong offensive effort tonight - especially after the hard-fought win yesterday. Clippers have won four straight and are shooting the lights out with field goal percentages of 50%, 56% and 57% among those four victories. It's tough to shoot 50% against this defense, but a score in the mid-90's is more than enough to earn an outright win here.
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Los Angeles Clippers vs. Memphis GrizzliesFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Los Angeles ClippersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Grizzlies guard the opponents shot very well behind Mike Conley and his defensive partner, Tony Allen, but LA is no slouch either. And beyond that also the Grizz protect the dangerous 3pt shot very well, so it will make things that much harder for Jamal Crawford to open up the deep ball. The 3 pt shooting of Clippers has been anything but vulnerable on the year, and I expect them to drop them again and win this game outright.
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San Diego Padres +1½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Padres will be without Carlos Quentin for eight games after he was suspended for charging the mound and injuring Dodgers pitcher Zack Greinke. This takes a little power out of the lineup for San Diego, but Quentin wasn't exactly banging them out of the park this year anyway.
He's hitting .182 with no home runs and three RBIs.
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San Diego looks to bounce back from three consecutive losses, as they face the Rockies in Game 2 of a three game series on Saturday. Note that two of those three losses came by a one-run margin.
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The Padres send Edinson Volquez to the mound tonight, and he was rocked by the Rockies in Colorado in his last start. He allowed four runs on nine hits, including a home run over six innings. It's important to keep in mind that any numbers we see for a pitcher at Coors Field have to be taken with a grain of salt.
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Volquez will make his first start of the season at Petco tonight, and he was much better at home in 2012 than he was on the road. He had a record of 6-5 with a respectable 2.93 ERA at home, in comparison to a rather ugly 5.60 ERA on the road.
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The Rockies will counter with Jhoulys Chacin, who has had a pretty solid start to the season. They will still be concerned with Chacin though, as he's been plagued with control problems his entire career. He did issue three walks in his debut, with the Rockies losing 5-4 to the Brewers.
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Petco is known to be a friendly environment for pitchers, so a close ballgame would be no surprise here. I like the Padres to win outright, but a play on the RL appears to be an even better bet.
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Texas Rangers -139FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Rangers went down yesterday but are a fantastic 63-24 in their last 87 games following a loss. Look for them to bounce back here behind a strong outing from Alexi Ogando. The Rangers are 5-0 in Ogando's last 5 starts, during which he has given up only 1 run. Also, Ogando is 1-0 (3-1 on the money line) with an ERA of 3.78 in 4 career starts versus Seattle. He gave up 1 run or none in 3 of those starts. Joe Saunders, on the other hand, is 4-7 (5-7 on the ML) with an ERA of 6.05 in 12 starts versus Texas, and he is 1-4 on the ML in his last 5 starts versus the Rangers. The Rangers are 8-2 in their last 10 games as a road favorite of -110 to -150. Take Texas.
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Orlando Magic +4½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Boston Celtics simply do not have much to play for with only three games left in the regular season. They are three games behind the Chicago Bulls for the No. 6 seed, and three games ahead of the Milwaukee Bucks for the No. 8 seed.
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That means they are essentially locked into the No. 7 seed in the East. While Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett are expected to return from injury tonight, I do not expect the Celtics to give the kind of effort it takes to beat the Magic given this scenario.
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Orlando has been playing out its season, going a very profitable 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games overall. That includes a 113-103 home victory over Milwaukee last time out on Wednesday. The Magic have plenty of reason to be motivated tonight thanks to Jason Terry.
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"Orlando is a team that, obviously, you see them. I don't want to give them any fuel, but they're terrible," Terry said. "So we must go in there with whoever we have and scrap for the win."
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Coming in on two days' rest, and playing just their 2nd game in 6 days, the Magic will be the much fresher team in this one. Boston will be playing the second of a back-to-back and its 3rd game in 4 days after losing to Miami (101-109) last night, and Brooklyn (93-101) on Wednesday.
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The Celtics are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400. Orlando is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 vs. Eastern Conference opponents. Boston is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 road games overall. Bet the Magic Saturday.
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NY ISLANDERS -108 over N.Y. RangersFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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OT included. The Rangers continue to be the most overvalued team in the NHL and it has no merit. The Blue Shirts have two road wins in their past 10 games away from MSG. Those two wins came at New Jersey and Carolina, Combined, that pair has one win in its past 25 games. That’s all the info we need to fade this group when the price is this short on a team that playing as well as the Islanders.
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The Islanders are going to the playoffs because they’re playing with more determination than any Islander team has since the days of Mike Bossy, Bryan Trottier, John Tonelli and Denis Potvin to name a few. The Islanders have picked up 17 out of a possible 20 points over their past 10 games. The Isles are coming off a road win in Boston and they have not allowed more than two goals against in seven straight games and that includes a 2-0 loss to the Penguins. The Rangers get credit for no reason. The Islanders should be getting credit for stepping up their game when it counts most but this line is not reflective of either. The quest continues for the Islanders and it’s highly doubtful this pathetic Rangers group gets in their way.
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DALLAS +124 over San JoseFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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OT Included. San Jose has talent and lots of it but when push comes to shove, this Sharks team remains one of the softest and underachieving in the league. After a hugely successful home stand that saw the Sharkies pick up 13 out of a possible 14 points, the club hit the road with a chance to really make life difficult for the Jackets. Instead, the team lost 4-0 in the first game back on the road and they followed that up with a 3-2 OT win in Detroit. San Jose now has four wins in its past 12 road games. Three of those four road wins occurred in OT Conceivably, this San Jose squad could easily be 1-11 over its past 12 road games. Perceived as an elite team with a chance to go deep into the playoffs, the Sharks are overpriced on the road, where they have been horrible since the first two weeks of the year when every team was a little disorganized.
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The Stars have really come to life. In that aforementioned San Jose seven-game home stand, the Stars were the only team to go in there and come out victorious. Dallas has now won four in a row and they’ve scored five goals in three consecutive games. The Stars are determined to make the playoffs and they’re almost there. Dallas has a real bounce in its step. Ray Whitney is playing like an 80-point scorer again, Vern Fiddler and Eric Nystrom are playing like veteran leaders and Alex Chiasson is sneaky smart in everything he does on the ice. Dallas has goal scorers, they have a great mix of vets and youth and they have elite talent in Loui Eriksson and Jamie Benn. Dallas isn’t likely to lose to these Sharks simply because any team that wants it more than San Jose usually gets it. It’s been that way for years against the Sharkies and there’s nothing suggesting this one will be any different.
Don Best ConsensusFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Los Angeles Clippers at Memphis GrizzliesFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Memphis GrizzliesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Grizzlies are 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall, 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win, and 41-16-1 ATS in their last 58 games as a ½-4½ point favorite. Clippers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Saturday games, 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a SU win, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600, and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games. Play Memphis.
Larry NessFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Detroit Tigers at Oakland AthleticsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Detroit TigersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The A’s won last night on a walk-off HR in the 12th (typical of LY’s team) and has now won NINE in a row since opening the season with back-to-back home losses to the Seattle Mariners. The Tigers. seemingly everyone’s preseason favorite to repeat as AL champs, fell to 5-5 with the loss. The Tigers’ bullpen woes reared its head again last night, as it was the THIRD blown save in five chances, as the team’s bullpen ERA now sits at 5.91. The good news for Detroit is, it may not need its bullpen with Justin Verlander on the mound. Verlander was a breakout rookie star in 2006 and except for a down year in 2008 (11-17 with a 4.84 ERA / actually finished with MLB’s worst moneyline mark that year at minus-$1351), has been nothing short of SPECTACULAR. I think all know his record, so I won’t waste space. Oakland’s Brett Anderson is an excellent young lefty but Verlander is a true “stopper” and that’s what I expect him to do today in Oakland. After all in five starts vs the A’s since the beginning of 2011, Verlander is 5-0 with a 0.49 ERA, including two wins in last year’s ALDS (pitched a four-hit shutout with 11 strikeouts in the deciding Game 5 at Oakland). Back Verlander and the Tigers.