Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday April, 14

Marc Lawrence

Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Clippers
Prediction: Los Angeles Clippers

When the Clippers host the Warriors in an afternoon matinee at the Staples Center today Los Angeles will take the court looking to avenge a pair of same season losses suffered in this series. That's actually good news for the Clippers who are 9-1 ATS in this series with same season double revenge-exact. They are also 12-4 ATS at home this campaign against opponents that are off a loss. With one team headed to the playoffs this season and the other headed south, we recommend a 1-unit play on the Clippers.

Matt Fargo

Cleveland Indians vs. Kansas City Royals
Play: Cleveland Indians

The Indians took the opener of this series yesterday as the offense erupted for seven runs in the first inning and never looked back. They improved to 2-4 on the season which started with a could extra-inning losses so things could be better as far as the record goes. The offense had been struggling considerably so the fact they were able to bust out is a huge move in the right direction. Cleveland is 11-4 over the last 15 meetings including wins in five of its last six in Kansas City. The Royals were a sleeper pick on many lists this season to make a possible postseason run and with the extra Wild Card spot, anything is possible although I think they are still a year or two away from contending. Kansas City is off to a 3-4 start and its season home opener did not go as planned on Friday. A bounceback will be expected by many here but the Royals offense has been just as anemic as that of the Indians and things will not be easy on Saturday at the plate. The Indians send Jeanmar Gomez to the hill for his season opener after he won the fifth spot in the rotation over Kevin Slowey. He was supposed to start Monday but a rainout pushed his start back to today. After a slow start last year he came on strong in August and September before getting hit hard in his season finale. The posted a 1.37 ERA in six spring starts so getting the fifth spot was well deserved. Gomez has a 3.76 ERA in five starts against the Royals, allowing two runs or less in four of those. The Royals counter with Jonathan Sanchez who pitched well in his season opener against the Angels but it was nothing spectacular. He allowed two runs on four hits and three walks in five innings and was able to pick up a win in the process. Last year with the Giants he posted a 4.26 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in just 19 starts and those numbers were more in line with his career log. He had a very strong season in 2010 but prior to that he never had an ERA better than 4.24 so he is a very average pitcher.

Rob Vinciletti

Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox
Play: Boston Red Sox

What we want to do in this one is play on home favorites off a home favored win where they scored 10 or more runs with 10 or more men left on base and no more than 1 error, vs an opponent off a road dog loss that scored 2 or less runs on 5+ hits. These home teams have won 18 of the last 22 times. The Redsox busted out at home and take on a Tampa team with a 11.82 road bullpen era. Today the Redsox have T. Buchholz making the start and he has a 1.81 era vs Tampa and has been solid going 18+ innings allowing just 3 earned runs. Look for Boston to give Tampa starter Hellikson a tough time here today.

David Chan

Senators @ Rangers
PICK: Over 5

I bet value where I see it and am expecting this one to fly above the posted number. I took the Rangers in Game 1, and for the series.

New York took Game 1, 4-2.

Ottawa ran into a red hot Henrik Lundqvist. With 10:09 left in the second period, the Senators were down 1-0, but led 22-12 in overall shots.

The Sens collapsed after that and were in a huge 4-0 hole early in the third period:

"They did a better job on their fore check than we did forcing turnovers. That's the biggest difference," said winger Daniel Alfredsson. "Those led to goals directly. When we forced turnovers, we weren't as opportunistic.

"We realize the way we need to play. It was nice to get a couple of goals in the third to make us feel better, but we know we have to be better on Saturday. We've one day to regroup and get ready."

Goaltender Craig Anderson looked pretty shaky.

Four different players beat the Sens netminder, including captain Ryan Callahan, Brad Richards, Brian Boyle and Marian Gaborik.

Lundqvist made 30-saves.

“We didn’t play our best,” said Ottawa coach Paul MacLean. “We need to play better, obviously, to win.

“When you lose a game, you can always be better in all areas and all zones of the rink.”

Ottawa definitely needs to improve with the man-advantage in Game 2, otherwise a devastating 0-2 hole is imminent.

New York knows it can't rely on Lundqvist every night, and its offense looked sharp in the second half of Game 1, and we should expect that momentum to carry over here.

Expect another high-scoring affair in the "Big Apple"!

Dave Cokin

Cincinnati Reds vs Washington Nationals
Pick: Washington Nationals

The Nationals have been money for me and I like them to continue their winning ways today. No problems fading Homer Bailey and I'll look for Edwin Jackson and the Nats to garner another victory here.

Jim Feist

Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox
Pick: Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa Bay has dominant pitching and off to a great start, while the pressure is already overheating the Red Sox. The Rays are 23-9 in their last 32 vs. the American League East and 5-2 in Jeremy Hellickson's last 7 starts. His last start he fired a 3-hitter in 8+ innings at the Yankees, a 3-0 win. Boston righty Clay Buchholz didn't play in the second half last year because of a back injury and still looks rusty, with a 15.75 ERA. The Red Sox are 8-23 in their last 31 vs. the American League East. Play the Rays!

Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons

Washington Capitals vs Boston Bruins
Pick: Washington Capitals

The Capitals and Bruins are right back at it Saturday afternoon after taking a 0-0 tie into OT before Chris Kelly scored only a minute into sudden death. Braden Holtby backstopped the Caps, stopping 29/30 shots and did his part while his team-mates only managed 17 shots on Tim Thomas. A quirk in the schedule from the last two seasons arranged that these teams did not play each other once in the 2011 calendar year. All four of the regular season match-ups came since January and Washington took three of four head to head including both match-ups at TD Garden in Boston. This was after the Caps made a switch at head coach, firing Bruce Boudreau and giving the reigns to former Caps checking center Dale Hunter. While losing in OT puts the Caps in a 0-1 series hole, the Capitals are still a very talented team with top offensive defensman Mike Green back patrolling the point, and Niklas Sundstrum back to compliment the great 8 Alexander Ovechkin. Injuries and consistency were the problems the Caps were having earlier in the season but as shown by their record vs Boston in the seasons second half shows that they were able to elevate their game vs the Stanley Cup Champs. The Stanley Cup tournament out of all the big 4 sports championships has the most parity, as top seeds rarely run the table, underdogs have a chance every night, and even when you win the Cup, with the wear and tear it takes out of a team, its rare that team makes it very far the following season. After an emotional OT victory we will look for the ebb and flow of the series to go back to Washington. Going against the public opinion, who are 60% behind Boston, we will take the Capitols side to even the series. After coming close in game one, the Caps have a chance to steal home ice and really make some noise in the playoffs as the #7 seed. Take the underdog Caps to bounce back in round 2, and the big juice that comes along with it.

SPORTS WAGERS

Tampa Bay +126 over BOSTON

Jeremy Hellickson was a big-time prospect that put up big-time ERA and WHIP a year ago but a decaying strikeout rate and control left him with soft skills set that was masked by low hit rate and high strand rate. Minor league pedigree suggests that if no injury involved, the skills should at least partially return and we saw that in his season debut when he three-hit the Yanks in 8.2 innings and shut them out. Hellickson was terrific against righties last year and he was outstanding when he pitched with the bases empty. His ceiling remains high. Clay Buchholz may have been the most fortunate starter in MLB in 2011. He had a 28% hit rate and a 77% strand rate along with a tiny 11% line-drive %. In addition, his average fastball velocity decreased from 94.1 mph in 2010 to 92.6 mph in 2011 to 91.1 in his season debut. He also saw his FB% increase from 32% to 39%. We can blame some of these concerns on a back problem that eventually sidelined him. But keep in mind that he still doesn't own the skills of a sub-4.00 ERA pitcher. We’re not going to put too much weight on Buchholz’s season debut against the Tigers in Detroit but what we are putting weight on is the value that Hellickson and the Rays offer up here. Play: Tampa Bay +126 (Risking 2 units).

Pittsburgh +136 over SAN FRANSICO

The Giants were 0-3 on the season when the 126 Million Dollar Man, Barry Zito took the mound in Colorado. It didn’t look good for the Giants to get into the “W” column. All Zito did was go out and throw a complete game shutout to become the second lefty in history to shut out the Rockies at Coors Field. The old saying is that “even a blind squirrel finds a nut” and that certainly applies here. Zito is not back. His control and strikeout rate have been declining for years. This past spring, Zito continued to be very hittable, posting a 7.91 ERA over 19.IP in which he gave up 32 hits and 12 walks (2.28 WHIP). Opponents hit .405 against him. Whether the Rockies were sleeping that day or not is a mystery but what occurred defies logic. Based on logic and everything we understand about pitching a baseball, Zito remains a great fade because his skills are among the least appealing in the league. Don’t expect a repeat of his performance in Colorado. Play: Pittsburgh +136 (Risking 2 units).

N.Y. Mets +132 over PHILADELPHIA

Jonathon Niese is an in-game adjustment away from becoming one of the NL's best starting pitchers. His skills were off the charts the first time through the lineup and remained elite the second time through. Rib cage strain ended his season in late August, perhaps mercifully, given the July-August hit and strand percentages that were wrecking his numbers. On base average history and health are issues but everything else screams breakout. Niese’s command now at elite levels, his groundball % continues upward creep and was outstanding all last season. Niese is under the radar right now and that allows us to step in and take back a pretty generous offer here. Vance Worley is another starter who could offer up some nice value down the road. He was fantastic in the spring and went 11-3 with a 3.01 ERA for the Phillies last season. He, too, is under the radar but fewer grounders and more line-drives in 2H cause for pause and he’s not the one taking back a tag. Additionally, the Mets are this year’s surprise so far after week one with a 5-2 record while the 3-4 Phillies are more beatable than they’ve been in some time. Play: N.Y. Mets +132 (Risking 2 units).

San Diego +128 over LOS ANGELES

The Dodgers stock is way too high after opening the year with a 7-1 mark. A correction in their W/L record is forthcoming and it could very well begin here. Ted Lilly began the year on the DL but comes off to make this start. Traditionally he’s been a slow starter with a 5-5 record and 4.30 ERA in April over the past three seasons. At the age of 36 and without a full spring training, his risk increases. The Padres send out rookie Joe Wieland. Wieland is a strike-throwing machine who dominates without an overpowering fastball. His heater sits in the 88-92 range but does have some good late tailing action. He complements the fastball with a good curveball and a nice change-up for a solid three-pitch mix. He throws strikes and is fearless. He walked only 21 while striking out 155 in 2011 and has the disposition, arsenal and confidence to succeed at this level. He’s been on our radar for a couple of years and should be on yours too. Play: San Diego +128 (Risking 2 units).

Adam Wilk (LHP) Detroit

In a rather surprising decision, the Tigers have elected to call up Adam Wilk to start today and at least temporarily take the spot vacated by the injured Doug Fister. Wilk made five appearances with the Tigers last season, all in relief, and in 13.1 innings recorded a 5.40 ERA. He struggled during spring training with a 7.50 ERA and just five strikeouts in 12 innings. Wilk allowed just one hit in five innings in his first Triple-A start and it was apparently enough to earn himself at least one start with the Tigers. It's worth noting that he has had some issues with the long ball, as he allowed three home runs in 13.1 innings with Detroit and three more in spring training.

Bryan Power

San Jose Sharks @ St. Louis Blues
PICK: St. Louis Blues

Can't see the Blues, who had the best home record in the league during the regular season, dropping another one at home here. San Jose took Game One in double overtime, 3-2, as goalie Antti Niemi carried them in the extra periods. It has been St. Louis that has been known for its goaltending all year as they surrendered just 155 goals during the regular season, an NHL record. Coach Ken Hitchcock is sticking with Jaroslav Halak for Game 2. Remember that the Blues swept the Sharks during the regular season, outscoring them 11-3 in four games. St. Louis was 8-3 during the regular season off a home loss. While both Pittsburgh and Vancouver have already lost both games on home ice to start the playoffs, I do not see the same fate befalling St. Louis.

Guillermo Sanchez Perez

Golden State @ L.A. Clippers
PICK: Over 196

Golden State is 22-36 (10-19 on the road). LA is 36-23 (21-9 at home). The last time these team's played against each other, Golden State won 97-93 in LA on March 11th, 2012. The O/U is 3-2 the last five in the series.

The Warriors are coming off a 112-103 setback to Dallas on Thursday. Golden State was short-handed, but got big contributions from David Lee with 30-points and eight-rebounds. Klay Thompson added 24-points, eight-assists and seven-boards. It was the Warriors third straight loss; “It means nothing when you give up 112 points,” Thompson said.

The Clippers have won two straight including a 95-82 victory at Minnesota on Thursday. Blake Griffin was his usual steady self with 19-points and 13-rebounds. Caron Butler added 17-points. LA is in a fight for a playoff position, looking to punch its ticket to the postseason for the first time in six long years.

The Warriors have seen the total go "over" the number in seven of 11 after three or more consecutive losses this year, while the Clippers have seen the total go "over" the number in eight of 11 this season after allowing 85-points or less.

LA looks to take advantage of a Golden State team that is allowing an average of 117.7-points over its three-game losing streak.

The Warriors won't go down without a fight though; “When you play the best you can - the game gets so close and then it gets away from us. It’s frustrating,” Golden State's rookie point guard Charles Jenkins said. “It doesn’t matter how many games are left you want to win as a competitor.”

A faster paced game leads to a higher-scoring game.

This number is a little low I feel, and will recommend a play on the "over".

Jimmy Boyd

LA Dodgers -136

The Dodgers are off to a fantastic start, and I like them to keep rolling behind Ted Lilly. The southpaw has absolutely owned the Padres. He's 10-4 (11-5 on the ML) in 16 career starts against San Diego with an ERA of 2.37. The Dodgers are 5-1 in Lilly's last 6 starts vs. the Padres. The Padres are just 2-12 in their last 14 games vs. a left-handed starter and 4-14 in their last 18 road games. They are 6-18 in the last 24 meetings with the Dodgers and 0-7 in the last 7 road meetings in the series. The Dodgers are 18-5 in their last 23 home games, 25-7 in their last 32 games as a home favorite and 5-0 in their last 5 games as a home favorite of -110 to -150. We'll take the Dodgers.

David Banks

Memphis Grizzlies -5.5

The Memphis Grizzlies (34-24, 28-30 ATS) are currently the fifth seeds in the Western Conference, but they still have a chance to finish as a three seed if they continue playing as well as they have lately. Meanwhile, the Utah Jazz (31-28, 30-28-1 ATS) were ninth in the conference entering Friday night's game at New Orleans vs. the Hornets, and they trailed the Denver Nuggets by just 1 games for the eighth and final playoff spot going in. Regardless of that result, it should be an interesting battle when the Jazz and Grizzlies get together at FedEx Forum in Memphis, TN on Saturday night at 8:00 ET.

The Grizzlies got off to a rather slow start this season but they have been playing just about as well as any team in the NBA as of late, going 9-3 straight up and 8-4 against the spread in their last 12 games, a streak that has including impressive road wins over the Miami Heat, Oklahoma City Thunder and Los Angeles Lakers. The last two Memphis losses have both come on the back end of back-to-back games, including their latest loss at San Antonio on Thursday which followed a nice 11-point home win over the Phoenix Suns the night before. The Grizzlies were off on Friday so they have no back-to-back concerns here, and their recent hot streak has them well placed just behind the two Los Angeles teams, as they sit 1 games behind the fourth-seeded Clippers and 2 games behind the third-seeded Lakers. So can Memphis make up 2 games with only eight games remaining? Well, the Grizzlies have five home games left beginning with this one and their three remaining road games are all against soft competition as they visit the Charlotte Bobcats, Minnesota Timberwolves and New Orleans Hornets. In fact, after this contest, the Grizzlies do not face a team with a winning record until they host the Orlando Magic in the season finale, and the current soap opera going on in Orlando is well documented. Thus, a 7-1 or even an 8-0 finish is within the realm of possibility given Memphis's current form.

This could very well turn out to be the Grizzlies' toughest remaining game as the Jazz have continued to fight hard for that last playoff spot, winning three of their last four games including a big 103-91 road win in Houston on Wednesday. That streak could very well be four wins in five games following Friday's tussle with the Hornets, or the worst case scenario would be that Utah could be looking to bounce back from an upset loss. Either way, the Jazz expect to give the Grizzlies a ball game here, which would be nothing new considering that Utah is a blazing 12-4 ATS in the last 16 head-to-head meetings between these teams including 7-2 ATS in the last nine encounters in Memphis. The one drawback is the fact that the Jazz are just 10-20 straight up and 12-17-1 ATS on the road this season pending the result in New Orleans on Friday, but the win in Houston Wednesday may be an indication that they are ready to rise up to the challenge when it matters most.

Utah's dominance over Memphis has continued this season as the Jazz have won and covered both meetings thus far. The Jazz won the first meeting at home 94-85 as narrow 1-point favorites on January 6th and they then upset the Grizzlies 98-88 here in Memphis as 6-point underdogs on February 12th. The Grizzlies must be thankful that this is the last scheduled meeting this season.

SPORTS WAGERS

Ottawa +153 over N.Y. RANGERS

The Rangers jumped out to a 4-0 lead in game one and cruised to a 4-2 victory. However, it wasn’t quite as pretty as it looks on paper. The Senators played nose-to-nose with the Rangers but their downfall occurred in a six-minute span between the end of the second period and beginning of the third when the Rangers scored three times. Ottawa was a lot more threatening than that score suggested. They carried the play through the last 10 minutes of period one and well into the second and third periods. If there is such a thing as a good loss, this was it. The Sens refused to give up and continued to send a message to the Blue Shirts that “the series is far from over”. Ranger goaie Henrik Lundqvist was his usual outstanding self but the Senators did create plenty of scoring chances. Other than the result, everything the Senators did was positive and a similar effort may produce a different result. Play: Ottawa +153 (Risking 2 units).

San Jose +142 over ST. LOUIS

It was suggested before the playoffs that the Blues could be in a little trouble because of inexperience and because Ken Hitchcock worked them to the bone in the regular season. All that may come to pass, as the Sharks looked extremely sharp and confident against this group in game one and there’s no reason that they can’t do the same in game two. It also appears that Hitchcock is in a bit of a panic. The Blue Notes lost by a goal in double OT last game. Yet, Hitchcock has made numerous changes for game 2. At the time of this writing the changes include but are not limited to Carlo Colaiacovo, B.J. Crombeen, and Matt Dagostini being in while Kent Huskins, Ryan Reaves, and Chris Stewart are out. Really? Players witnessing the coach getting a little antsy can’t be a good thing. Meanwhile, San Jose defeated the Kings in the final two games of the season and have clearly carried that momentum into this series. The Sharks are not inferior to this host and with a take-back of +142, they are the smart choice. Play: San Jose +142 (Risking 2 units).

WUNDERDOG

Los Angeles Angels at New York Yankees
Pick: Los Angeles Angels +110

The Angel bats were stymied yesterday afternoon at the Stadium as Hiroki Kuroda pitched a gem and shutout the Angels on 5 hits over 8+ innings of work. The Bombers unloaded a pair of home runs off the bats of Granderson and Arod which proved decisive. The Angels will send CJ Wilson to the mound who made a splash in his Angel debut allowing 1 run in 7 innings. Wilson is now 32-15 in his last 47 decisions and rapidly becoming an ace. Phil Hughes could not get out of the 5th inning, and the one prized Yankee prospect has not had a lot of success as a starter on the major league level. Angels have bounced back big after scoring 2 or less runs in their previous game at 38-15 in their last 53. Yanks lineup being shutdown by a pitcher with a WHIP of less than 1,15, as they are 1-6 in their last 7. Play on the Angels.