Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, April 16,2011

Marc Lawrence

Detroit Tigers at Oakland Athletics
Prediction: Detroit Tigers

When the Tigers send staff ace Justin Verlander to the hill against the A's in Oakland Saturday they will do so knowing Detroit has cashed in four of Verlander's last five road starts in April. On the flip side, Oakland left hander Dallas Braden has dropped three of his last four home starts against the Tigers with a 5.28 ERA to show for his efforts. Back the better arm here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Detroit.

Sam Martin

Texas Rangers at New York Yankees
Prediction: Texas Rangers

We're not sure the Yankees would be the favorite in this game if they didn't have the words "New York" across their jerseys. As it stands, we're getting excellent line value on the Rangers here today and we won't pass it up. Holland goes for Texas, and all he's done this season is go 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA. New York will counter with veteran Freddie Garcia, who will be making his first start of the season but already has a 9.00 ERA in his one inning of relief. Not sure how much Garcia has in the tank, and we'll back the much better pitcher here at an underdog price! 5* Play on Texas.

Scott Spreitzer

Buffalo Sabres at Philadelphia Flyers
Prediction: Philadelphia Flyers

I had the Buffalo Sabres on these pages and we cashed a nice underdog price on Thursday night. I mentioned just how well Buffalo had been playing, not only since the organization was sold to Terry Pegula, but also since December. The Sabres, after winning on Thursday, enter this one on a 17-4-4 run since the sale, and a 30-11-6 run since December. Much better numbers than the Flyers, who basically limped into the playoffs. But it must be noted that the Flyers dominated many aspects of game one, but obviously not the scoreboard. Philadelphia owned a 35-25 shots on goal advantage. They had four power play chances to just one for the Sabres. And the Flyers also finished the game with more hits, piling up 40! Most importantly, I was impressed with young netminder Sergei Bobrovsky, who rejected all shots on goal until the 5:56 mark of the third period. And that lone goal came off a rebound. One well-reported note from game one showed that the Flyers directed 74 shots towards the Sabres' net (35 on goal) while holding Buffalo to 36 (25 on goal). That's domination. And let's not forget that this Flyers' team knows how to come back from adversity. They were down 3 games to none to Boston before winning four straight in last year's postseason. It's bounce back time for the Flyers. I'm laying the price with Philadelphia on Saturday.

VEGAS EXPERTS

Indiana Pacers at Chicago Bulls

Would not be surprised at all to see the Bulls pull off the four game sweep of the Pacers and it should start with an easy Game One victory considering they are 23-8 against the spread following a game where they failed to cover the spread and have revenge for a regular season loss to the Pacers. Chicago is 30-15 ATS with same season revenge while Indiana is just 13-24 ATS as a dog of 3.5 to 9.5 points.

Play on: Chicago

Matt Fargo

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Washington Nationals
Play: Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers lost a tough game last night in extra innings even though they outhit the Nationals 10-5. Milwaukee came into that game on a 7-1 run following a 0-4 start to the season but this is a great spot to get it back at an even better price. The Brewers pitching has been outstanding as they have posted a 1.99 ERA over their last 10 games to drop their season ERA to 3.05. To put it into perspective, Milwaukee has allowed 25 runs over its last 10 games after allowing 23 runs in its first three games. It was a big win for Washington last night as it squandered a lead by giving up a run in the ninth inning but was able to cash in. The Nationals are flirting with the .500 mark with a 6-7 record after winning five of their last eight games. This may seem like a good spot for Washington seeing that it has followed up its first two extra-inning wins with a win the next game but the pitching matchup was nowhere near the disadvantage that it will be at today. Yovani Gallardo started the season with two straight quality starts but he allowed four runs on seven hits and four walks in five innings in his last start so it was a bad outing to say the least. He has been notorious for bouncing back after bad performances and we will see that again here. Gallardo is 2-0 with a 2.70 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in three starts against Washington and he is getting an extra day rest here which is big. The Brewers are 13-3 in Gallardo's last 16 starts against teams with a losing record. The Nationals counter with Jason Marquis who has gotten off to a surprisingly good start following a disastrous season a year ago where he posted a 6.60 ERA and 1.70 WHIP in 13 starts. He is pitching way over his head in my opinion and his 11:2 K:BB ratio is evidenced of that. He was shelled in his last start against Milwaukee last season as he allowed seven runs while not recording a single out. The Brewers are 5-1 in their last six games against right-handed starters. 3* Milwaukee Brewers

Steve Merril

Blue Jays vs. Red Sox
Play: Over 9

Josh Beckett is coming off a tremendous outing against the Yankees his last time out. Beckett will face Toronto this afternoon; the righty is 3-6 with a 7.03 ERA in 14 career outings against the Blue Jays. Last season, he faced them twice giving up 12 runs and 19 hits in 10 innings of work. John McDonald (4-7), Jose Bautista (3-6), Aaron Hill (13-32), Adam Lind (8-16) and Travis Snider (4-9) all have great numbers against Beckett. He's going to need to go the distance in order to prevent a horrible bullpen from getting involved. Boston made multiple free agent moves to improve that unit, but it has backfired so far. The group's ERA is near 7.00 with three losses so far this season. Bobby Jenks picked up the latest loss last night against the Blue Jays. Toronto has gone Over the total in three of their last four games and Over in four of their last six games overall as they are averaging over 5 runs per game. Jo-Jo Reyes will make his third start as a member of the Blue Jays. Reyes is 0-1 with a 5.23 ERA after giving up eight runs and 15 hits in 10.3 innings of work. Reyes was rocked by the A's in his first start of the season. Mike Cameron (2-6), Adrian Gonzalez (2-5) and Marco Scutaro (1-3) have had success against Reyes. The Red Sox’ offense has scored 4 runs or more in five of their last six games while putting up at least 10 hits in each of those games. Toronto's bullpen nearly blew Friday night's game and they have an ERA approaching 5.00 on the road. The Red Sox are hitting .285 at home despite their poor early record. This game should be a slugfest between two hot offenses.

BIG AL

Toronto Blue Jays @ Boston Red Sox
PICK: Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox continued their surprisingly poor play last night, losing by one run to these Jays. And the supposedly best team in the American League has the worst record (2-10) midway thru April But there's a long way to go, and today the Sox will hand the ball to Josh Beckett, who was simply brilliant his last time out vs. the Yankees. Beckett pitched eight shutout innings of 2-hit ball, and struck out 10 Pinstripes while walking just one. He'll be matched up against Jo-Jo Reyes, who had no starts last season, but will take the mound for the 3rd time as a starter this year. He's had an uneven start to his 2011 campaign, with a 5.23 ERA in 10 1-3 inning pitched. He's never faced the Red Sox in his career, and I expect this first effort vs. Boston at Fenway to be a poor one. Take Boston and Beckett.

BEN BURNS

Padres @ Astros
PICK: Over 7.5

I released "guaranteed" (premium) plays on the "under" in each of the first two games of this series. Both tickets cashed. Thursday's game finished with a score of 1-0. Yesterday's finished with a score of 4-2. Those winning tickets brought me to 19-3-3 my last 23 guaranteed baseball totals, dating back to last season. That includes a 6-1-1 mark this year. Today, I feel the value lies the other way.

For starters, the O/U line has fallen. It was 8.5 for each of the first two games. Now, its down to 7.5. (*In fact, as I release this, we're able to get 'over' 7.5 at +102.) Naturally, there's a significant difference between 7.5 and 8.5. Note that games here at Houston are still averaging 8.75 combined runs, on the season.

Also, while I had reason to believe we'd see quality starting pitching in the first two starts, I'm not so sure that will be the case here. At least, not from the home team.

Through two starts, Figueroa is 0-2 with an awful 10.61 ERA and a terrible 2.358 WHIP. Not surprisingly, both games finished above the total. They had scores of 12-4 and 5-4.

Figueroa made a start vs. the Padres, way back in 2002. He got rocked for five runs in two innings, suffering an 8-7 loss.

While he admittedly has had success vs. Houston, Latos was solid but not dominant in his lone start this season. He allowed three runs in six innings. He only gave up four hits, but two of them were home runs. That was at pitcher-friendly San Diego, too.

Even with the first two games staying below the total, the Astros have still seen the 'over' go a respectable 9-5 on the season. Consider the Over.

Jim Feist

Seattle Mariners vs. Kansas City Royals
Play: Seattle Mariners

Seattle has their ace going in Felix Hernandez, a guy with the best stuff in baseball. He's fanned 17 in 22 inning with only 5 walks and has 48 Ks and 11 walks in 47 innings against the light hitting Royals in his career. The Mariners are 8-3 in Hernandez's last 11 starts and 43-21 in Hernandez's last 64 starts vs. a team with a winning record. It's tough to back KC starter Sean O'Sullivan, who has below average stuff and has allowed twice as many base runners this season as innings pitched. Play the Mariners.

Freddy Wills

Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Indians
Play: Baltimore Orioles

This one may shock you but we have Jeremy Guthrie of the Orioles as today's hot starter and again we go with him as our free pick below. Guthrie has gotten off to a great start and he has done it against two solid line ups in the Rays in the Texas Rangers. He's allowed just 1 ER in the two starts and now he'll try to cool down the Indians who are off to a great start in 2011 at 9-4 including a 5-2. They'll push their own hot starter to the mound in Josh Tomlin.

Tomlin has posted a 2.63 ERA in two starts this year but the O's hit him hard a year ago despite only getting 1 run they had 10 hits in 5 innings. Guthrie again has great value here I think as he closed 2010 season with an 8-4 record and 2.76 ERA after the All Star break and that has certainly carried over. In his two starts vs. the Indians he has gone 15 innings allowed just 8 base runners and 2 ER. That includes 8 innings and just 2 hits 1 ER in his 2010 start vs. the Indians. The Indians active batters post a .122 average and .337 OPS in 49 AB vs. Guthrie. I expect more success on Saturday based on how the Indians are hitting right now and that's why the Orioles are small dogs here, but I think the Orioles will cool down Cleveland.

EZWINNERS

Miami Heat -10.5

When D-Wade, LeBron and Bosh got together last summer a championship was what they were shooting for and that season begins with this game. Miami swept the season series 3-0 and won those three games with margins between 9-12 points. The 76ers started the season at 3-13, which was then the NBA's second worst record, but over the next four months, the 76ers won 37 of 60 games to get into the playoffs. Philly didn't end the season very well as they lost five out of their last six games and I don't like their chances in this first game of this series. I expect the big three to all have huge games as they easily win game one. The home team is 17-7 against the spread in the last twenty four meetings and Philadelphia is only 3-9 against the spread in their last tweleve games against teams with a winning record. Lay the points.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Tampa Bay Rays -128

Without Joe Mauer behind home plate and with the way Scott Baker has stumbled out of the gate (0-2, 6.55 ERA), it will be very difficult for the Twins to avoid a third straight loss to the Rays. Tampa Bay has rebounded from an ugly start to win its last 4 games. It has an excellent chance of making it 5 in a row with Niemann on the hill. He has struggled in his first couple starts but will be very confident against a Minnesota team he is 2-0 lifetime (3-0 on the money line) against with an ERA of 3.26. Niemann's biggest knock is his tendency to give up the long ball, but he shouldn't have to worry too much about that against the Twins, which have only hit 3 on the season and 1 off of a righty. Consider that Niemann is 17-2 on the money line in his last 19 starts vs. poor power teams averaging 0.9 or less HR's/game. Take Tampa.

Tom Freese

Portland Trail Blazers vs. Dallas Mavericks
Play: Dallas Mavericks -5

Portland is 48-34 this year. The Trailblazers are 1-4 ATS their last 5 games when playing with two days of rest. Portland is 2-7-1 ATS on Saturday. The Trailblazers are 14-25 ATS after covering 5 or 6 of their last 7 games. Dallas is 57-25 this year. The Mavericks are 12-4-1 ATS their last 17 games off a win by more than 10 points. The Mavericks are 7-1 ATS their last 8 games as favorites of 5.0 to 10.5 points. Dirk Nowitski and company will win this EASY. PLAY ON DALLAS -

Jeff Alexander

1 Unit on LA Dodgers -142

Expect ace lefty Clayton Kershaw to bring the Dodgers' skid to an end tonight. The Dodgers are 5-1 in Kershaw's last 6 starts dating back to last season and the Cardinals are 4-11 in their last 15 games vs. a left-handed starter. St. Louis is also just 4-14 in its last 18 road games vs. a starting pitcher who gives up 5.5 or less hits/start and 2-14 in its last 16 games as a road underdog of +125 to +175. Take LA.