Dave Price
1 Unit on Detroit Tigers -113
With Friday's extra innings loss, the Athletics are now just 1-7 in their last 8 home games. They have also lost their last 4 at home to the Tigers. We'll get behind Detroit ace Justin Verlander tonight, who is 51-23 on the money line in his last 74 starts vs. a team with a losing record. He has pitched well out of the gate and carries a 3.17 career ERA against Oakland through 10 starts. Dallas Braden, meanwhile, has struggled against Detroit. He lost both of his 2010 starts against the Tigers and saw his career ERA against them rise to 6.75. Take the Tigers.
Sean Murphy
Los Angeles Angels @ Chicago White Sox A
PICK: Chicago White Sox
The White Sox are struggling right now, losers of three of their last four games overall. However, there was no shame in dropping a 4-3 decision against Jered Weaver and the Angels last night. He's one of the hottest pitchers in baseball right now.
Today the advantage on the mound shifts back in the White Sox favor as they send Gavin Floyd to the hill against rookie Tyler Chatwood.
Floyd brings excellent form to the table, having allowed just 11 hits and four earned runs while posting a 13:3 strikeout-to-walk ratio through 15 innings of work. He's made home starts against the Angels in each of the last two seasons, allowing just 11 hits and two earned runs in two starts, spanning 15 innings. The White Sox won those two games by a combined 15-4 score.
Tyler Chatwood gave up four walks and two home runs in his MLB debut against the Indians on Monday - a game the Angels lost 4-0. This isn't a great bounce-back spot for the rookie as he faces a potent White Sox lineup in a hitter-friendly park at U.S. Cellular Field. Note that Chatwood had only had a cup of coffee at the triple-A level prior to this season, spending most of his time at single and double-A.
The Angels do have the much stronger bullpen in this matchup, but it won't matter much if the White Sox are able to build a sizable early lead. Sergio Santos worked an inning last night, but aside from that, most of the White Sox key relievers are rested and ready to make amends for that awful collapse against the A's on Wednesday.
With a tough matchup against Dan Haren awaiting on Sunday, the White Sox should play with a sense of urgency this afternoon. We'll limit our investment in this one, only due to the rather steep price. Take Chicago
JR O'Donnell
Miami Heat -10.5
Short & Sweet Boyss as the NBA PLAYOFFS is a Flat Out different animal... Super Strong 27-14 65% NBA RUN moves up again in a 3* way today as the Miami Heat & the Lebron & Wade show have been in this venue before AND THEY ARE DEADLY!! Lebron had a monster game last season "Game 1" as a Cav. We follow the Sixers very close and they just don't have the Athletes to run with the 58-24 Heat who are scoring close to 110 & in in our opinion a top "4 Power Rating D". The Heat can crank up the D when they want to! #'s are strong here as Home team is 17-7 ATS in the last 24 meetings & the Heat bested these Sixers "3-0" by 10 , 9 and 12.... Heat will limit Meeks today! The Sixers punch in @ 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 playoff games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5.
Info Plays
3* Rangers +110
Reasons why Texas will win:
1) This is a complete pitching mismatch. Rangers starter Derek Holland is 2-0 with 2.25 ERA this season, and should have no trouble out pitching Freddy Garcia, who is making his first start of the season. Garcia had a 4.64 ERA last season, and has a 4.29 ERA in his career against the Rangers.
2) Texas is 22-13 against the money line as a road underdog of +100 to +125 over the last 2 seasons.
3) The Yankees are just 8-15 against the money line vs. an excellent bullpen whose ERA is 3.00 or better over the last 3 seasons.
Bob Wingerter
Twins vs. Rays
Play: Over 8½
Tampa Bay is 5-9 in their last 14 overall, 2-9 in their last 11 home games, and 1-8 in Niemann's last nine starts. Minnesota is 3-12 in their last 15 road games, 3-13 in their last 16 road games against a right handed starter, and 5-11 in Baker's last 16 starts against the AL East. Minnesota is 2-6 in the last eight meetings of these two. Neither of these pitchers has shown us the ability to slow anyone down this season and I don't see it happening in this one.
Larry Ness
Minnesota Twins @ Tampa Bay Rays
PICK: Tampa Bay Rays
The Rays opened the season 0-6 (just 21 runs scored) but have rebounded to win FIVE of their last seven, scoring 37 runs in those five wins (7.4 per). The Rays are not getting too crazy but they know they are on the right track. “We’ve got a long way to go,” Friday’s winning pitcher Wade Davis said. “But we’re starting to jell a little bit and everybody’s starting to play good baseball.” Meanwhile, the Twins batted .273 last year as team (the third-best mark in MLB) and averaged 4.8 RPG. However, they are batting only .234 in opening 4-9 this season, scoring an anemic 2.9 RPG. Tampa Bay’s Jeff Niemann (0-2, 8.31 ERA) looks to bounce back from a pair of rough starts to open 2011. Why can’t he? He’s been a steady part of this team’s rotation the last two seasons, going 13-6 (3.94) in ‘09 and 12-8 (4.39) last year (team is 36-23 in his starts). Also, he’s 2-0 with a 3.26 ERA in three career starts vs the Twins (Rays are 3-0). The Twins counter with Scott Baker (0-2, 6.55), who like Nieman, is also looking to begin pitching better than he has to open the 2011 season. Many consider Baker Minnesota's top pitcher. In support of Baker, he’s posted consecutive seasons of 11-4 (3.45 ERA), 15-9 (4.36) and 12-9 (4.49) with the Twins going 54-36 (.600) in all his regular season starts these last three years. Baker had a strong finish last year, going 5-0 with a 3.18 ERA in his last 10 starts with the team going 9-1. However, I don’t like what I’m seeing from the Twins and neither does their manager. “Right now we’re not getting it done. It’s obvious,” manager Ron Gardenhire said. “We don’t like to lose around here. We’re not accustomed to it, and we’re not going to get accustomed to it. We won’t let that happen.” With Friday’s loss, the Twins have now gone five straight seasons without winning a series at Tropicana Field. As for today’s game Ron, you lose again.
David Malinsky
New York Mets @ Atlanta Braves
PICK: Atlanta Braves
Mike Pelfrey is off to a miserable start this season, a 10.80 over three starts and 11.2 frames in which there is not a good number to be found. It has been a 2.31 WHIP; far more W’s (9) than K’s (6); and a stratospheric 22.3 PPI, reaching at least 21.2 in every one of those starts. Facing this particular lineup from this mound is hardly a recipe for a turnaround. Pelfrey’s career split of 3.62 Home/5.54 Road is one of the most pronounced in the Major Leagues, and it has been an ugly 6.69 over seven starts here at Turner Field. The Braves simply love swinging at what he throws, with Brian McCann at .462 with a pair of HR’s over 39 at-bats; Martin Prado at .421 with a HR over 19; Chipper Jones .385 and three HR’s over 26; and Dan Uggla raking him to a .414 over 29 at-bats as a Marlin. Given the Pelfrey weaknesses against left-handers (.379 so far this season), figure Jason Heyward to become yet another Atlanta hitter that will make good contact.
The flip side here is that we believe that Jair Jurrjens looks fully ready to go. He worked 21 strong IP in spring training, and after having to sit down for a bit had a crisp six-IP win with AAA Gwinnett on Monday. He sports a 20-13/3.25 career from this mound, and a 7-2/2.81 over 10 starts both Home and Away against the Mets, dominating the top four in the batting order – Jose Reyes, Angel Pagan, David Wright and Angel Pagan – to a combined 13-74 (.176).
Instead of waiting for the Game #1 result we are going to go ahead and lock in now – the Atlanta bullpen is stronger, and we also expect Derek Lowe to burn more innings in the opener than D. J. Carrasco. Meanwhile after having Reyes, Pagan, Wright, Ike Davis and Scott Hairston start both ends of Thursday’s double-header vs. Colorado, with Beltran, Daniel Murphy and Brad Emaus also appearing in each game, Jerry Manuel may go to a softer Game #2 lineup tonight, with a quick turn-around before an early afternoon start tomorrow. We will play before that lineup card hits the wires.
Nelly
Toronto + over Boston
Jo-Jo Reyes had a rough first outing for the Blue Jays but he had a nice effort against the Angels early in the week despite taking the loss. Reyes had seen little action the past two seasons due to injuries but he had some success in Atlanta in 2007 and 2008 even though he has ugly career numbers. Reyes pitched the most innings of any Toronto pitcher this spring as he really had to prove himself to win the job and he did that with a 3.52 ERA and opposing batter hitting just .126 against the left-hander. Boston is hitting just .206 for the season against left-handed pitching this season and the Red Sox continue to struggle on offense with only 46 runs scored on the season, 22 fewer than Toronto's output. Josh Beckett had a great outing against the Yankees last Sunday night but Beckett has been a pitcher that rises to the spotlight but can fail to be reliable in many other situations. Becket was hit hard in his first start of the season against Cleveland and he had very poor numbers in spring training. Beckett finished 2010 with a 5.78 ERA and his valuation for this match-up is greatly inflated based on his past reputation and a big prime start last week. Boston is still a 2-10 team that has had limited offense and an atrocious bullpen. Red Sox relievers own a 6.92 ERA for the season and Toronto is still one of the best power hitting teams in baseball. Toronto has won three of the last four games at Fenway Park and this is an incredible value price on a Blue Jays team that has done everything better than Boston so far this season.
Frank Drake
TAMPA BAY (-130) over Minnesota
After a rough start, the Tampa Bay Rays are starting to turn things around. The Rays have won four in a row and look for a fifth consecutive victory while trying to hand the Minnesota Twins their fourth straight loss Saturday at Tropicana Field.The reigning AL East champions send Jeff Niemann to the hill this afternoon as he looks to bounce back from a pair of rough outings. Niemann is a perfect 4-0 lifetime against the Twins. Twins pitcher Scott Baker has been roughed up so far this season with an 0-2 6.55 ERA. Minnesota has averaged just 2 runs a game so far and really misses Joe Mauer. Take the Rays.
SPORTS WAGERS
Portland +168 over DALLAS (series)
The Dallas Mavericks are a regular season team, not a playoff team. Every year the Mav’s are seeded high but every year they bow out in the playoffs and there’s nothing to suggest a change this year. The Mav’s are a great shooting team but having to rely on perimeter shooting in the playoffs is bad strategy. The Mav’s ranked 29th in the NBA in points in the paint and they ranked 27th in second chance points. In other words, they avoid the boards and that timidness rarely equates to wins in playoff basketball. The Trail Blazers are a bad matchup for them. Portland is gritty, they crash the boards, they play outstanding defence and they know how to beat this enemy. These two played on April 3 in Portland. The Blazers had an 18-point lead going to the fourth and cruised home. Even more significant, is the game prior on March 15, also in Portland. The Mav’s shot a blazing 59% from the field that night and still lost by three, further proof that everything is going to have to go perfect for the Mav’s to win this series. Basketball, especially playoffs, is all about matchups and the Blazers couldn’t have handpicked a more suitable first round opponent. Dallas beats up on bad teams but has struggled against top tier squads. While the Blazers may not be amongst the very best, they’re damn close and their style elevates them to a level that the Mavericks will find difficult to contend with. Portland wins this series based on grit, determination and willingness to go after every loose ball and rebound. Play: Portland +168 to win series. (Risking 2 units).
Denver +193 over OKLAHOMA CITY (series)
Between the quality play both teams showed down the stretch, the rapidly developing distaste for one another between Nene and Kendrick Perkins, and the fact this is the only first-round pairing of 50-win teams, expect this one to come right down to the wire. Denver shockingly ascended to second in the Power Rankings after the Carmelo Anthony trade and they’ve been playing with a chip on their shoulder ever since. Denver's depth is scary to the point that George Karl can and will play 10 guys 24 minutes apiece and in what should be a long and very physical series, that could be the difference. The longer the series goes, the better chance the Nuggets have. The Thunder have all the “star power” in this series with Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. The pickup of Kendrick Perkins absolutely increases their chances of a deeper run, however, Perkins is going to have to deal with a lot of big bodies in this series. Serge Ibaka began the season as a potential threat on the defensive end alone, but his strides offensively have been nothing short of remarkable and he could be the Thunder’s “X-factor”. Still, with a very deep bench plus one of the best centers in the league in Nene, the Nuggets cannot be counted out. They’ll be in this series and with a take-back of nearly 2-1, they’re definitely worth a wager. Play: Denver +193 to win series (Risking 2 units).
SPORTS WAGERS
Baltimore +103 over Cleveland
The Indians are off to a great 9-4 start that included a 7-0 run. They’re scoring runs while both the bullpen and starting pitching has been sharp. The Indians’ Josh Tomlin is off to a great 2-0 start with a 2.63 ERA and that hot start provides us with a great opportunity here to cash in because Tomlin is not a 2.63 ERA pitcher. He went 6-4 with a 4.56 ERA in 73 IP for the Tribe last year. Righties whacked him to the tune of a .881 OPS, far too big of a number. His stats also provided a lofty groundball/fly-ball ratio of 28%/50%. These are not the contrarian stats of a winning pitcher or even an average one. Those kinds of numbers eventually become exposed. Whether it is today or not, Tomlin does not warrant the chalk’s role over the superior Jeremy Guthrie. Guthrie’s 1-1 record and 0.64 ERA thus far is not to be believed either but he did face the Rangers in one of those games and held them in check. Last year he went through a stretch in which he allowed only seven earned runs over six consecutive starts. Guthrie is 31 and he’s durable, as he has averaged 30 games started and increased his IP each season during that time. Much prefer Baltimore’s solid starter to Cleveland’s imposter. Play: Baltimore +103 (Risking 2 units).
Texas +110 over N.Y. YANKEES
Props to Freddy Garcia for coming back from three straight years of injury to post a near full season at age 34. Garcia is now a soft-tosser who gives up too many HR to be anything more than an innings-eater and this is not the team nor the stadium that you want to be serving up hangers over the plate against. Due to various off days and rain delays, the Yankees have yet to use their fifth starter but are forced to do so today. In a three-year stretch between ’07-’09, Garcia threw less than 150 innings combined. He was hit hard last season as a member of the White Sox with an ERA close to 5.00 in 157 frames. The Yankees rotation is a mess. Phil Hughes has a dead arm. A.J. Burnett can’t get anyone out. Ivan Nova is a minor-league pitcher and now they’ve slotted in Bartolo Colon. Garcia is a part of that mess. He has no value whatsoever as the chalk as he’s a Band-Aid on a gunshot wound. Derek Holland went 3-4 with a 4.08 ERA in 57 IP at Texas last year. His health is a consideration after missing June/July last year with knee and rotator cuff issues and he did show some rust in 2H, but he did have K/9, hr/9 gains all year and remains a promising work-in-progress. Holland has also had a decent start to the year with a 2.25 ERA after allowing just 12 hits and three ER in 12 innings while striking out 11 and walking three. The Yanks wanted revenge badly yesterday against the team that knocked them out of the playoffs last October. They didn’t get it and they’re likely not going to get it here either. Play: Texas +110. Play: Texas +110 (Risking 2 units).
Chicago/COLORADO over 10 +102
The most extreme hitters' park in baseball thanks to its high altitude, Coors Field remains an offensive boon even since the introduction of humidors to keep baseballs from drying out. The park has spacious dimensions that should rob some homers but all that green also makes for easy doubles and triples. No park in baseball has been as hitter-friendly in modern times. Enter Casey Coleman and Jason Hammel. Hammel has made two starts this season and in 11 innings he’s walked four and struck out five. That tells us the ball will be in play today and when you consider that current Cub hitters are batting .366 against Hammel his chances for a good game are slim. Despite being 1-0 this season, Hammel has not looked sharp at all against the Dodgers or Mets. Casey Coleman went 4-2 with a 4.11 ERA in 57 innings last season for the Cubbies. A helpful groundball% punched his ticket to the show, but that GB level isn't elite enough to cover for his intolerable command of the strike zone and very low strikeout rate. Coleman just goes out there and waits for his fielders to make plays and that’s a tough way to survive at this venue or any venue for that matter. All signs point to a four-hour game. Play: Chicago/Colorado over 10 +102 (Risking 2 units).
*In skills, we look at a pitchers control (bb/9), dominance (k/9), command (k/bb), opposition on base avg (OOB), groundball/line-drive/fly ratios (G/L/F) and expected ERA (xERA).
SPORTS WAGERS
Phoenix +152 over DETROIT
The Coyotes were aggressive and rock solid in the first period of game one and played their typical forechecking style but could not overcome a couple of shaky goals allowed by Ilya Bryzgalov. The goal that put the Wings ahead 2-1 was the most damaging and seemed to have taken some wind out of the Coyotes’ sails. Still, they played nose to nose with the Red Wings and once again, goaltending is likely going to have a huge impact on the outcome of this one. Bryzgalov is usually reliable and we expect a better game from him here. Jimmy Howard had a very strong game but that does not mean a repeat or that he’s the better goaltender, he just had a better game. What we do know is that Phoenix can play with this team. They proved it all season long, they proved it in last year’s playoffs and it’s not a stretch to suggest that the Coyotes are a better club than last year’s edition while the Wings cannot make the same claim. Detroit has some injury concerns and some liability in its third set of defensemen. The Coyotes have to stick to their game plan, get solid goaltending and they can definitely go home tied 1-1. Play: Phoenix +152 (Risking 2 units).
Buffalo +146 over PHILADELPHIA
The Sabres were not sharp in game one, much like the Lightning in their opener but Buffalo won its game because Ryan Miller was unbeatable. The Sabres generated very little offense and did not test rookie Sergei Bobrovsky at all. We expect that part to change here. With the Sabres up 1-0 and all the pressure on the Flyers and their young goalie, expect Lindy Ruff to devise a plan get a lot more traffic to the net and generate some offense. Philly limped into the playoffs with a rough final three weeks and it carried over into game one. What we have here is a Sabres team with a ton of momentum that was not close to playing their best, up 1-0 against a fragile host with a fragile goaltender. Buffalo won on a subpar effort. We’ve already got the better goaltender and we can expect a much better effort from the Sabres after a subpar offensive performance. Most everything points to the prohibitive dog, including our pocketbooks. Play: Buffalo +146 (Risking 2 units).
Montreal +179 over BOSTON
What can one say about the Canadiens? Here’s a team that constantly gets outplayed and wins. This is the most opportunistic team in the league. They shut out the Bruins 2-0 in game one and you could sense early on that the Bruins were in trouble. Boston could not beat Carey Price and they played like they knew they weren’t going to. Boston was buzzing around the net for long stretches but Montreal does not care. They block shots, they dump it out and they frustrate teams to no end. It seems that if the Habs score first again, the Bruins will be in the same kind of trouble again. Boston comes in as a frustrated team and the fact that they did not score in game one is a big problem. They’ve had trouble sustaining an offense all year long and now they have to deal with a goaltender that is not only outstanding but also one that is their kitchen. The price and goaltender make the Habs an absolute must value playPlay: Montreal +179 (Risking 2 units).
OC Dooley
Pacers / Bulls Over 188
The situation for Chicago is radically different as opposed to the last pair of campaigns when they were knocked out of the opening round of the playoffs by a pair of high-seeded opponents at the time (Cavaliers, Celtics) who excelled on the “defensive” end of the floor. This time around the Bulls have been awarded for having the league’s best overall regular season record by facing an Indiana contingent (37-45) that has a below .500 overall record. The Pacers are an extremely young team that has suffered many a defensive lapse and the average “combined points scored in their games (201) was relatively high. Of course the oddsmakers had no choice but to set a low over/under figure for this opener since a suffocating Chicago defense ended up allowing opponents to shoot the lowest-percentage figure in the entire NBA. In “divisional” matchups such as this the Bulls went 11-5 below the total where the defense allowed on average just 86 points per contest. But it should be noted that the most recent pair of clashes in this Indiana/Chicago series made it OVER the total including a 115-108 shootout. Here is a 67-PERCENT SYSTEM (76-37 since 1996) which takes “top level” teams like Chicago off 8 consecutive victories OVER the total, when facing an opponent with a losing record