Tony George
New York Mets vs St Louis Cardinals
Play: New York Mets
Why is St. Louis this small of a favorite at home? IN MY OPINION THIS IS A TRAP LINE.
Santana on the hill for the Mets - Better pitching overall, better bullpen. Actually better hitting in this one too! St. Louis is off a 4-3 win last night with ace Carpenter on the hill, and Jamie Garcia has looked good in his only start. Looks like an easy Cards win huh? Santana has had a rough start but something tells me it is too good to be true with a short line like this on the Cards. I look for the Mets to even the series here on Saturday in a small upset. Mets are solid at the plate against southpaws, I like their bullpen here.
Tom Freese
Detroit Tigers at Seattle Mariners
Prediction: Detroit Tigers
Detroit sends Justin Verlander to the mound tonight. Verlander is 43-18 his last 61 starts vs. a team with a losing record. The righthander is 20-8 his last 28 starts as a favorite. The Tigers are are 9-3 vs. a starter with a WHIP of over 1.30. Seatlle is 4-11 in the last 15 starts made by Ryan Rowland-Smith. The Mariners are 1-4 their last 5 games vs. righty starters. Seattle is 1-5 their last 6 games as underdogs +110 to +150. PLAY ON DETROIT (Verlander vs. Rowland-Smith)
MTi Sports
Baltimore Orioles at Oakland Athletics
Prediction: Oakland Athletics
The Athletics are 9-0 as a favorite vs a team that has lost at least their last three games and the Orioles are 3-20 as a 140+ dog when they blew a lead in their starter's last start and lost.
Utah Jazz at Denver Nuggets
Prediction: Denver Nuggets
The Nuggets have dominated the Jazz at home recently, winning by an average of 11.5 points in their last four. We see no reason why this should not continue here.
Denver has been fantastic in home series openers, winning 113-84 over the Hornets laying 6 and 109-95 over the Mavs laying 6 last season.
In the last meeting between these two, the Jazz capitalized on a 2&0 rest advantage and the fact that the Nuggets were missing both Chauncey Billips and Carmelo Anthony to win 116-106 laying 9?. The Nuggets should cover here while the Jazz focus on game two. Lay the handful.
Larry Ness
Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres
PICK: San Diego Padres -130
Chase Headley hit a three-run HR with two outs in the bottom of the ninth last night, giving the Padres a 6-3 win over the D'backs in the second game of a four-game weekend series. These two NL West rivals are seeing a lot of each other to open the 2010 season, as the D'backs took two of three games vs the Padres the first week of the season. The D'backs are 5-5 to open the 2010 season and the team's bullpen has been the major culprit for its woes, blowing five straight save opportunities while compiling an 8.83 ERA in that span (bullpen's ERA for the season is now at 6.06!). One wonders how the bullpen won't be needed tonight, as Arizona plans to start Kris Benson. Benson was the first pick of the 1996 MLB draft. He was a promising pitcher while with the Pirates but needed Tommy John surgery and missed the entire 2001 season. The New York Mets acquired him near the trading deadline of the 2004 season and he was then traded to the Baltimore Orioles in January of 2006. By that time, his wife was drawing more media attention than he was. He missed the entire 2007 season with a torn rotator cuff. He pitched in eight games for Texas last year (1-1 with an 8.46 ERA over 22.1) but hadn't appeared in the big leagues since 2006, before that. Benson was signed to a minor league contract by Arizona in March of this year and tonight makes his debut. What can we expect? San Diego will counter with Kevin Correia, who is coming off the best season of his career (not saying all that much). He was 12-11 (3.91 ERA) in 2009 but the Padres went 19-14 in his 33 starts, giving him a moneyline mark of plus-$856 (6th-best in all of MLB). He's 1-1 with a 4.63 ERA to open 2010, allowing four ERs in six innings (allowed three HRs) of a 5-3 loss at Arizona on April 7. He is just 2-7 in 19 career appearances (10 starts) vs the D'backs but he does own a respectable 3.87 ERA vs Arizona. I don't know what to make of Benson (will his wife be there, drawing most of they attention?), so I'll stick with the Padres and Correia.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Detroit Tigers -132
Bottom Line: Look for the Tigers to bounce back strong tonight behind ace Justin Verlander. The Tigers are 5-0 in Verlander's last 5 starts, 6-2 in his last 8 road starts, 20-8 in his last 28 starts as a favorite and 16-7 in his last 23 starts vs. the American League West. Those stats are nice, but here's the clincher. Verlander is a perfect 10-0 against the money line vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons. The Tigers are winning by an average score of 5.8 to 3.1 against these teams. Take the Tigers.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Arizona Diamondbacks +120
I'm not ready to pay juice for the Padres in this spot when you consider that they are 0-6 in their last 6 games following a win and 0-6 in their last 6 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game. Plus, the D-backs have taken 9 of the last 13 meetings in the series and they are 6-1 in their last 7 games following a loss. Kevin Correia has been solid for the Padres but he is just 2-5 lifetime when starting against Arizona. Meanwhile, Kris Benson is 2-1 lifetime when starting against San Diego. We'll take the Snakes at a solid price today.
Jack Jones
Bucks/Hawks OVER 186
This Total has obviously been set too low when you look at how these teams have played each other in the past. The OVER is 8-0 in the last 8 meetings, with the lowest combined score during this stretch at 193 points. The Hawks and Bucks have combined to score 200 or more points in 6 of their last 8 meetings. So as you can see, there is some serious value with this OVER tonight.
Atlanta is 25-7 to the OVER after 1 or more consecutive unders this season. The Bucks are 27-12 to the OVER when playing against a good team (Win Pct. 60% to 70%) over the last 3 seasons. More recently, the OVER is 7-0 in Bucks last 7 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record. The OVER is also 14-3 in Hawks last 17 games following a S.U. win. With Andrew Bogut out for Milwaukee, they've had to sacrifice some defense and go with a smaller line-up while trying to get up and down the floor. Bogut was an excellent shot blocker, and without him inside the Hawks should dominate the paint all game long and score at will. Milwaukee will be able to get out in transition, though. Bet the OVER.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Cleveland Cavaliers -11
The Chicago Bulls used a lot or energy down the stretch just to make the playoffs while King James and company were getting plenty of rest. I'm not worried about the Cavs showing any rust in Game 1 when you consider how sharp they looked in the first couple rounds of the playoffs last season. Look for the much fresher Cavs to send a message to the Bulls right away that this is not going to be a series. The Cavaliers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 playoff games as a favorite of 11.0 or greater and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 Conference Quarterfinals games. The Bulls are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600 and 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 Conference Quarterfinals games. Lay the points.
Black Widow
1* on Denver Nuggets -5
The Utah Jazz have run into the injury bug entering the playoffs. Andre Kirilenko will not play tonight, and Carlos Boozer makes his return but he is far from 100% with a rib injury. The home team has won 9 of the last 10 meetings in this series. The Jazz are 3-14-1 ATS in their last 18 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5. The Nuggets are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Nuggets are 6-0-2 ATS in their last 8 meetings with Utah. The favorite is 23-10-3 ATS in the last 36 meetings. Take Denver and lay the points.
Mike Rose
Miami Heat vs. Boston Celtics
Play: Miami Heat +4
The Heat were never quite up to par with teams like Atlanta and Orlando in their own division, but they were always good enough to stay in the middle of the pack in the playoff picture. Thanks to wins in 12 of their L/13 games, the Heat snuck all the way up to the #5 seed in the East, where they'll get the most favorable draw of any of the first round underdogs.
The Celtics have to be feeling the exact opposite. They were a miserable home team this season by their standards at just 24-17 SU and 12-28-1 ATS in the Garden this season, and they went just 27-27 in their L/54 games of the year to finish in the #4 hole in the East.
Miami is 7-1 ATS in its L/8 games played away from South Beach.
Remember when the C's were bounced by the Bulls in Game 1 of the playoffs last season? Can you say "de ja vu?"
Miami has the star power to be able to compete with this Boston team, and in spite of the fact that they lost all three regular season meetings this year, Wade and the Heat can pull this off; even on the road.
SPORTS WAGERS
Milwaukee/ATLANTA under 186
The Bucks great season took a real hit when Andrew Bogut went down and that’s going to turn out to be a huge factor in its fate. Scott Skiles does have a plan though. Skiles insist that the Bucks are going to work the clock and milk the shot clock almost every trip down. That’s actually a good plan because the Bucks are without a lot of good shooters and will need to rely on great defense to even have a remote chance of stealing a game in Atlanta. Atlanta is a team that receives more credit than they should. They, too, have a bunch of shooters than go cold for long stretches almost every game. The Hawks strength is its defense and this is the playoffs, where every players knows that defense reigns supreme and to win you have to play it. This total appears low when in fact it is not because Scott Skiles will stick to his plan and make sure his players will too. Play: Milwaukee/Atlanta under 186 (Risking 2.14 units to win 2).
Miami +1.60 over BOSTON
The Heat have their issues and sometimes appear to be too one-dimensional but let’s face it, they have the best player on the court in D-Wade, they play tremendous defense and they should hold a significant rebounding advantage over the Celtics. In fact, Boston was 25th in the NBA this season in team rebounding and that’s a huge concern. Furthermore, the Heat went 18-4 down the stretch while the Celtics have been laboring for months. KG is hurting bad and without him at 100% the C’s chances of winning decrease even more. This is an old Celtics team that is growing less confident with each passing game and if the Heat lose this one we’ll come right back on them in game 2 because chances are good they’ll be stealing some games in Boston. Michael Beasley could be the X-factor here. He’s a tremendous talent and if he plays to his capabilities and shoots well, the Celtics troubles will triple. Play: Miami +1.60 (Risking 2 units).
SERIES BET
Miami +1.52 over BOSTON Pinnacle
For all the reasons above we’re also going to play the Heat in the series also. Play Miami +1.52 (Risking 2 units).
L.A. Angels –1.08 over TORONTO
When Brian Tallet faced the struggling White Sox, every ball hit off him, whether it was an out or not, was scorched. Now he’ll face a line-up that is seeing the ball well and that went to work on Shaun Marcum yesterday. Tallet was wrongly penciled in as the #2 guy in the rotation but that’s a joke, as he’s not even close to warrant being in that role and by season’s end or way sooner he won’t even be in the rotation. He was batting practice most of last year and not much has changed this year. Pay no attention to his early season numbers, as they’re misleading and chances are huge that Tallet suffers a big loss here. Incidentally, Tallet has struggled against this group of hitters. In 62 plate appearances, the Angels roster has a robust .351/.403/.632 line against Tallet. Joe Saunders looks to turn things around after an 0-2 start and he did look better in his latest start. Besides, the Jays are only hitting .235 but some timely hits has masked a very poor hitting line-up. The Jays hottest batter, Vernon Wells is hitting just .188 against Saunders lifetime (3-16). Angels may score a ton here while the Jays should not. Play: L.A. Angels –1.08 (Risking 2.16 units to win 2).
Florida +1.02 over PHILADELPHIA (1st 5 innings)
The Houston Astros have scored 21 runs this season in 10 games and five of those runs came off of Jamie Moyer. Moyer was born in 1962 and will pitch in perhaps the worst pitcher’s park in the majors here and he doesn’t throw a knuckler. This guy is simply too old to have success against major-league hitters anymore. His time is up, way up and there are also signs that Moyer is developing long ball issues. Ricky No9lasco is a quality pitcher that is off to a bit of a rough start. He’s actually pitched well but has been done in by long balls and while that’s a bit of a concern in this park bit Nolasco is a talent and hopefully he’ll be better here. He’s only allowed 12 hits in 12.2 innings this season and threw a six inning, three-hitter against the Mets in his season debut. The Phillies offense is too dangerous to keep them off the board for nine innings and this one is all about playing against Moyer, thus the five-inning wager. Play: Florida +1.02 in the first five frames (Risking 2 units).
NY YANKEES –1½ +1.14 over Texas
Scott Feldman is 2-0 and has two good pitching lines but he faced the Mariners and Blue Jays, two line-ups that are batting a combined .240. When he faced the Mariners they were batting a collective .202. Feldman has only seven k’s in 14 frames and has recorded 17 groundball outs to 28 flyball outs and all that equals up to a guy who is on the verge of getting whacked. A.J. Burnett has had success against this team and in fact, the current line-up is hitting just .232 off Burnett in their careers. Burnett was better at home last season than he was on the road and there’s no reason he can’t dominate this line-up in the same way C.C. Sabathia did last night. The Rangers have dropped its last two games and scored three times in the last 15 innings. They were not hitting well anyway and now they all have to battle a collective hitting slump and the powerful Yanks. Play: N.Y Yankees –1½ +1.14 (Risking 2 units).
ST. LOUIS –1.06 over N.Y. Mets
The absolute best possible scenario for a young pitcher is to be under the guidance of Cards pitching coach Dave Duncan. This guy can turn anyone into a good pitcher, as he’s proven time and time again. Give him a guy with talent and he’ll turn him into an ace. Tony LaRussa gets and takes all the credit but it’s Duncan that makes this team contenders every year. Enter Jamie Garcia, a guy that had a terrific spring and followed it up with an even better season debut against one of the best left-handed hitting line-ups in the business, the Milwaukee Brewers. Garcia threw 24 spring innings, allowed 20 hits, walked just five and struck out 20. Against the Brewers he threw six innings and allowed just four hits and one run while inducing 11 ground balls and just six fly-outs. The Mets have never seen him before and that works in our favor too. Johan Santana on the other hand has just 10 groundball outs in two starts against 23 fly-outs. He was hit hard by the Nats in his last start in which he lasted just five innings and allowed five earned runs. Incidentally, in that start against Washington, Santana appeared to have given up a grand slam in the first inning but after replay the umps reversed the call and Santana escaped. The outing could have been more disastrous than it turned out to be. The Cards are a small price at home because of this rookie pitcher but it’s an underlay. Play: St. Louis –1.06 (Risking 2.12 units to win 2).
VANCOUVER -½ -1.08 over Los Angeles
It’s not like the Kings don’t belong because they do but Jonathan Quick had an outstanding game one, the Kings were outplayed badly and chances are Quick won’t duplicate that tonight. The Canucks looked so strong in game one and they’re simply a much better team than the Kings. This game is more important than the first one and after that game-one response look for more of the same tonight only with a much easier win. Play: Vancouver -½ -1.08 in regulation only (Risking 2 units).
Sac Lawson
NYM (-105) vs STL
I know it's really easy for a sharp bettor to grab this St. Louis side and say that it's prime time to fade a stud like Santana with how he's been pitching lately. But let me say this... We're used to seeing Santana as a massive favorite, I mean Roy Halladay style -250 type stuff. So where is the value at this deflated line? If anything, betting against Santana has it's value when you can get a +180 dog, not when the books are downplaying him like crazy due to a shaky start. Just one guys opinion.. But I do not see this as a great time to go against Santana, especially since you're dropping negative money on it.
As for the game.. Santana's one issue this year as been his fastball. And here's the thing about Santana.. Good Fastball = lefties out ... Good Changeup = righties out ... Santana's changeup has been good so far, and that's why righties are batting under 0.240 against him. The Fastball is his issue and it's got lefties batting over 0.300.. Fact is, St. Louis is right hand dominated.. If that changeup continues to be sound, he'll continue to mow down righties, even without a great fastball. Then again, I'd be lying if I said I expected his fastball to continue sucking. Also, one thing I've gotta point out.. Anytime Santana is in the lineup it gives the Mets 9 bats.. as opposed to most National League teams playing with 8 and a half.
On the other side.. I've never been sold on Jaime Garcia, and I'm not about to buy in now after one decent start. The guy is very shaky, can get into ruts where walks are high and poise is low. If he doesn't get run support early, I expect him to struggle. Simple as that.. I know the stats guys like Garcia based off recent form, but I'm a visual guy, and I've seen Garcia's stuff, and I'm nowhere near sold enough to make him a favorite here. Take the Mets at this premium price for 1 unit!
PHI (-115) vs FLA
It's been my own personal rule to always bet against Florida anytime Moyer is on the mound for the opposition. My GOY last year was actually Moyer against Josh Johnson.. and we were able to grab it at plus money which was AWESOME.. Of course it was an easy winner. Fact is, Vegas really has never adjusted this line to reflect Moyer's success against the Fish. We always seem to get him at plus money or right around there at least, and today, with Nolasco on the mound it's no different. It's important to realize that I usually bet this situation way larger when Moyer is playing IN Florida.. A place where he has only lost once in his entire career out of nearly 20 starts.
The Stats look like this.. Moyer Last three years.. 10-4 with a 2.85 ERA against Florida.. And going back further the record looks even better.. but I'm a guy that firmly believes the last three years are the best measure of success, since beyond that, the teams are completely different. Anyways, it's absolutely no surprise or anomoly, Moyer's success that is. The guy is a spot pitcher who uses craftiness to get guys out. Florida is a team full of guys that love to strikeout, full of guys swinging for the fences. The Fish succeed against power pitching, and struggle like crazy against crafty vets like Moyer. It's happened Moyer's entire career against this club, and I'll keep going to the well, believe that.
Nolasco is a guy that has had decent success against the Phils in his career, but he's been mediocre to start the season, and gave up 3 homers in his last start... Against a Phillies team that is red hot with the bats, and with Moyer on the mound, this price is too good not to lay a unit on!
SDP (-135) vs ARI
I gotta admit, I laughed out loud when I saw this pitching matchup... You take the Arizona Diamondbacks, a team that has been murdered by their bullpen lately, and how do they remedy it??? By throwing Kris Benson on the mound?! Unbelievable. Benson is a guy that has not pitched much over the last few years, and when he has pitched he's been dismal. I look to fade Arizona on the road any chance I get, but with the bullpen struggling like they are, and with Benson on the mound today.. Just too good to pass up.
Correia is on the hill for San Diego, and as much as I dislike him, he's actually pitching very well this year. I've watched both of his starts, and was very impressed with his control. If the San Diego bats continue to stay semi-hot, there is no reason they can't run away with this series against the D-Backs. I know this is extremely brief, but I've got to go with the better starter, better bullpen, and a lineup that is much better at home than Arizona is on the road. Let's roll Padres for a unit!
King Creole
PHI / FLA Under 10.5
MIKE ESTABROOK gets the call behind the dish tonight for this NL East battle between the Marlins and Phillies. He's picked up in 2010 right where he left off in 2009. Already 0-2 O/U on the season, with an average of only 6.0 combined runs per game.
There's not that many Men in Blue that have gone UNDER the TOTAL at a 68% clip over a long 3-year period... but Estabrook is one of those. The numbers are 16-34-2 O/U since the start of the 2008 season. He even went a PERFECT 0-5 O/U in Spring Training! He's gone 1-4 O/U In Florida Marlin games since the 2007 season (and 0-1 O/U in Ricky Nolasco starts). And he's gone 1-4 O/U in Philadelphia Phillies games... and 0-1 O/U in Jamie Moyer starts.
THE PREZ
The Utah Jazz blew their chance at a three-seed and home court advantage in the first round with an embarrassing 14-point homes loss to Phoenix in the season finale, but remember that this team played better in the road this season than in the past and we see them taking Game 1 of this series vs. the Denver Nuggets down to the wire in enemy territory.
Besides, one train of thought was that they tanked their last game, feeling that losing home court advantage was not as important as avoiding a first round matchup with the red hot and playoff savvy San Antonio Spurs. This thought gains plausibility when you consider that they never showed up in the finale after going 32-8 in their first 40 home games.
Conspiracy theories aside, the Jazz finished over .500 on the road this season at 21-20 straight up, a giant leap from recent seasons when Utah had quite possibly the biggest home vs. away disparity in the NBA. Granted, the Nuggets are 6-0-2 against the spread in the last eight head-to-head meetings, but the two Pushes did come in the last two encounters including a safe 10-point win by the Jazz in Utah in the last meeting.
Besides, Denver finished the season on a wallet draining 4-11-1 ATS run, and they are still without their head coach George Karl, as he continues to receive cancer treatments. The Nuggets got outhustled by the likes of the New York Knicks and the Andrew Bogut-less Milwaukee Bucks down the stretch, and interim coach Adrian Dantley has made some very questionable in-game decisions.
So what we have here is one of the best coaches of all time in Jerry Sloan going up against what is essentially a rookie coach that probably does not even want the job, so we look for Sloan to devise a game plan here that at the very least allows the Jazz to cover this spread, with an upset not at all unlikely.
Pick: Jazz +5
LT PROFITS
The Boston Celtics finished at 50-32 this season, but this is not the same great team of the last two seasons as they were very inconsistent in the second half of the year, and they are in real danger of getting knocked out in the first round here by Dwayne Wade and the Miami Heat.
The Heat were an excellent road team this year, going 23-18 straight up and 24-17 against the spread away from home, actually outscoring their opponents on the road by +1.2 points per game. This included covering the spread in their only trip to Boston, albeit in a 107-102 loss. Miami also enters this series with some good momentum, as they went 12-1 straight up in their last 13 games overall and they have won eight straight games on the road!
Meanwhile, the Celtics finished only 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games and they went a very un-Celtic-like 24-17 straight up and a horrible 12-28-1 ATS at home for the entire season. Most distressing is the collapse of a once proud Boston defense, as the Celts have allowed over 100 points in eight of their last nine games. That makes for a nightmarish matchup vs. a Heat team that is averaging 102.0 points over the last five games.
It appears that Miami is peaking at the perfect time, and we look for them to go into TD Banknorth Garden and steal home court advantage in Game 1 here.
Pick: Heat +4