Dan Bebe
FLA (+100) vs PHI
Almost no write-ups today, since I need to leave for the airport, but hey, the card's all free, so beggars can't be choosers, right?
Hah, but I kid.
The "Jamie Moyer Effect" had been weaving a magical web around the Marlins for many years, but Florida has "grown up." These wild, flailing, strike-out kings of yesteryear now include a highly skilled leadoff man in Chris Coghlan, a more mature Jorge Cantu, a more patient Dan Uggla, and of course, Hanley Ramirez.
Jamie Moyer had dominated Florida throughout his career, but he's just not a Major Leaguer any more, I don't care what folks say.
On the other side, Nolasco has nasty stuff, and I think he steps up and gives the Fish a decent starting performance. The bullpen is an issue, but I happen to think the Marlins can continue to score off the Philly pen, as well, so that's nearly a wash.
Play the Fish.
BOS (-125) vs TAM
Another ultra-brief write-up before I catch a flight back to Detroit.
Clay Buccholz is ready to have his breakout full season in the Boston rotation.
James Shields is a solid pitcher, but the Red Sox absolutely give him fits. Look for Boston to put up 3-4 runs off Shields, and take a lead into the late innings.
The Boston pen should be better than the Rays', though, on any given night, weird things can happen, but I trust Boston FAR more in a close game than Tampa, and I think Boston has the lead late, anyway, so it's sort of a double boost in our direction.
If you need more numbers to back this play up, check out the daily blog, with the comprehensive list of all the Sox batters that are hitting over .400 against Shields, and not in limited action, either.
Play on Boston.
DEN / UTA Under 208
This total is wildly inflated because of the two teams involved.
Again, leaving for the airport, so all plays today are FREE (and have short write-ups), but the long and short of it is that teams generally don't start the playoffs by raining in buckets.
I like that the 1st quarter should be relatively low-scoring, by these two teams' standards. The 2nd quarter, when the guys get warmed up, might feature more points than we'd like, but the second half is when we're going to see some traditional Playoff basketball, so look for a bit of a slowdown there, as well.
This total should come in right around the 200 mark, so play the Under for our 3rd and final Freebie of the day, and when I check scores from Wayne County Airport, I expect to see that we won all three!
And yes, the rhyming was by accident.
Play the Under.
vegas-runner
LOS / SFG Under 7.5
MLB on FOX FREE PICK
I was really hoping to see the books toss an 8 up as the total...And if they did, I don't think we would have had any problems getting an Official Confirmation to make this a Premium Play...But since they went ahead and offered it at 7.5....we'll go ahead and use it in a handful of exotics and also as a courtesy bet as well...Based on last night's final, we are getting some Value here...And according to my Line, this should have been offered at 7, with the Under still the Favorite...But with it being a "Prime-Time" TV Game...and so much Over money coming in from the betting public..the oddsmakers seemed to have inflated it some...VR
John Ryan
Florida Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Philadelphia Phillies
3* graded play on the Phillies as they take on the Marlins in game 2 of the three game series slated to start at 7:05 EST. The age-less wonder Jamie Moyer takes to the hill for the Phillies and is the only team in the NL that can support his pitching. He rarely throws over 82 MPH and uses movement and assortment of different break and change ups to keep batters off balance. He is not going to dominate any team very often, but with this Philly offense he does not have to pitch to perfection. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that the Phillies will win the game. Phillies are 22-9 (+12.5 Units) against the money line versus NL teams scoring 4.8 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons. Moyer is also a solid 120-55 (+34.7 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -110 or higher since 1997; 59-32 (+22.8 Units) against the money line after giving up 2 or more home runs last outing since 1997. Phils are batting 315 and scoring 7.7 RPG on the season. Take the Phillies.
Wunderdog
Utah Jazz vs. Denver Nuggets
Play: Over 208
The intensity on defense usually picks up in the NBA playoffs, but with a game that features a pair of teams built on the offensive end, I'm not expecting to see that here. The Jazz, discounting the season finale, went for 110.8 points per game over their last 23. The Nuggets went for 110 or more points in half their home games, so they are going to score here as well. In the four meetings on the season, they averaged 218 ppg between these clubs. The Jazz have gone 20-7 to the OVER in their last 27 vs. the NBA Northwest. I look for this one to soar OVER the total.
Freddy Wills
New York Mets vs. St Louis Cardinals
Play: Under 7.5
Mets I like the under here a lot as the Mets continue to struggle and so do the Cardinals at least against Johan Santanna. With Holliday questionable with the flu and the Mets bullpen pitching so well I really like this total. Cardinals send Garcia to the mound a guy the Mets have never seen. Garcia looked sharp in his recent outing and I believe he will be dominant here tonight. Don't miss out on my 5-dime MLB POD and other top picks! I am 16-3 in my last 19 MLB guaranteed picks
Sean Murphy
Los Angeles @ Vancouver
PICK: Los Angeles +1.5
The Los Angeles Kings were outplayed by the Canucks in Game 1, but still managed to make things interesting, dropping a 3-2 decision in overtime. If it wasn't for a miraculous save by Roberto Luongo in the extra frame, the Kings would be leading this series 1-0.
"It's kind of a good feeling knowing we didn't play our best and still went to overtime," said Kings defenseman Drew Doughty. "It was a really physical game. That's how the playoffs are."
Getting some playoff experience under their belt was key for many Kings players who were making their first postseason appearance on Thursday night. I expect to see a much sharper effort from them on Saturday and so does head coach Terry Murray.
"I think we were a little bit nervous at times. There were some young guys tasting this level of play for the first time and it showed. I thought we were chasing the puck a little bit too much in the offensive zone, trying to get the forecheck going, trying to get it stopped. We're not able to do it so we'll be better next game."
It's not as if the Canucks have been dominating opponents here at home. Over their last nine games at GM Place, they've won only three by more than a single goal.
Even with their loss in Game 1, the Kings remain a solid road team, posting a 24-18 record. The fact that they took the Canucks to overtime here in Vancouver was a step in the right direction, as they dropped both regular season meetings here by a combined 7-2 score.
I expect another tightly contested affair on Saturday, so I'll grab the puck-and-a-half as insurance with the Kings. They have plenty of room for improvement, and based on how these playoffs have gone, I wouldn't be shocked if they pulled the upset and sent this series back to Los Angeles tied at one. Take Los Angeles +1.5 goals (-180).
Info Plays
3* on Milwaukee Bucks +8.5
Reasons why the Bucks cover:
1.) The Bucks are 51-28 ATS in all games this season. This team remains underrated entering the playoffs as the "experts" are making too big of a deal out of the Bogut injury. Milwaukee has still managed to win 5 of their last 7 games entering the playoffs. 5 straight games in this head-to-head series between Milwaukee and Atlanta have all been decided by 8 points or less. We are expecting a sixth straight close contest in this series in Game 1 tonight. Bet the Bucks on the road showing great value.