Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday April, 21

Marc Lawrence

Atlanta Braves at Arizona Diamondbacks
Prediction: Atlanta Braves

When the Braves send Tommy Hanson to the hill against Joe Saunders and the Diamondbacks in Arizona Saturday night Atlanta will do so knowing Hanson has cashed in two of his three career team starts in this series. On the flip side, Saunders has dropped eight of his last 10 team starts during the opening month of April. With that look for the Braves to continue their winning ways in this series here this evening. We recommend a 1-unit play on Atlanta.

Ross Benjamin

Sharks vs. Blues
Play: Under 5

In the last 7 meetings between these two clubs this season only one has gone over the total. In the last 8 meetings between these two clubs played in St. Louis only one of those contests went over the total. The Blues are 26-10 under the total this season when facing an opponent that averages 29.5 or more shots on goal per game. The Blues are also 18-4 under the total this season when coming off 2 or more wins in a row. The Blues goalie Brian Elliot is 10-3 under at home this season while his team in front of him was #1 in scoring defense in the NHL during the regular season. The Sharks are 13-3 under when facing an opponent they have lost to in the last two meetings this season. This will be another low scoring affair so go with the under as my free play of the day.

Matt Fargo

Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres
Play: Philadelphia Phillies

After dropping their series in San Francisco, a visit to San Diego is just what the Phillies needed and so far they are taking advantage. They have won the first two meetings in this series behind great pitching performances and they continue to own the Padres. Philadelphia had won 10 straight meetings before losing the season finale last year and playing on the road has been more than kind as the Phillies will be going for their 15th straight victory at Petco Park tonight. The Padres are struggling as we all expected to see. They have dropped their last four games and have lost eight of nine while getting off to a 3-12 start, currently the worst record in baseball. They dropped seven of their nine games at home and the offense has been a train wreck as San Diego is hitting a mere .174 at home and its .211 overall average is the third lowest in all of baseball. The Padres are 15-41 in their last 56 games as an underdog between +110 and +150. We are getting some solid value with Roy Halladay in this situation as not only have the Phillies dominated the Padres, but Halladay has as well. He is a perfect 3-0 in three career starts against San Diego, posting a 1.90 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in the process. He has gotten off to an exceptional start this year as he is 3-0 with a 1.17 ERA and 0.78 WHIP so any lack of offense that the Phillies have had is no problem here. The Phillies are 11-3 in Halladay's last 14 road starts against teams with a losing record. San Diego send Chad Luebke to the mound and he has not been too bad this year. After allowing six runs in 4.2 innings against the Dodgers in his season opener, he has settled down by giving up only two runs in his last two starts, covering 12.1 innings with the most recent one being a quality outing. Those have been few and far between however and despite a solid 2011 season, the Padres went only 8-9 in his 17 starts and they are 1-4 in his last five starts as an underdog between +110 and +150.

Carolina Sports

Yankees vs. Red Sox
Play: Over 11

The Yankees have been smacking the ball around the last 5 games and the power surge has been great. Today they go up against a pitcher, Felix Doubront, who is not in good pitching form allowing 13 hits and 6 runs in 10 innings. Freddie Garcia goes for the Yanks and throws meatballs to batters. So look for Boston to break-out with the bats today in a big way. Garcia can't get anyone out and has a 6.96 ERA in 2 starts Should be an offensive explosion with the game being televised on FOX.

Rob Vinciletti

Minnesota Twins vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Tampa Bay Rays

Tampa is too high a favorite for unit rated status, however for a free play they are worth a look as we note that Home favorites with a total of 8 or less that are off a 1 run home favored loss at -140 or higher are 12-1 if they scored 4 or less runs and their opponent is off a road dog win by 1 run and scored 5 or more runs.. Tampa has won 3 of 4 in game 2 of a series, while Minnesota has lost 3 of 4 in the 2nd game of a series. Tampa has the Pitching edge with J. Shields over C. Pavano and The Rays are averaging 6 runs per game and hitting over .300 here at home. Look for Tampa to bounce back here tonight.

Guillermo Sanchez Perez

Orlando @ Utah
Pick: Under 194

Orlando is 36-26 (16-14 on the road). Utah is 33-30 (22-8 at home). These team's haven't played against each other since December 2010.

Without Dwight Howard in the lineup for the first time since learning he'd be out for the rest of the season, I expect the Magic to stumble offensively here. Orlando is just 3-5 without Howard on the floor, most recently a 102-98 setback to Boston on Wednesday. In that game, Glen Davis had 27-points, while Jameer Nelson chipped in 21 (note as well that the Magic are still without Hedo Turkoglu, who has missed the last seven games with injury).

Orlando has a playoff spot already clinched, and three of its last four games of the year are on the road. While this team will obviously not just roll over and quit, it goes without saying that a collective effort on the defensive end of the floor is more important than ever if it has any shot whatsoever at making a postseason run.

"What we're saying right now is that this is our team in the regular season and in the playoffs," Magic coach Stan Van Gundy said. "This is the team that we have and we have to do the things that allow this team to play well. It's made us have to make some changes and made us strong but our group has been focused on making the adjustments we have to make to be good together."

Utah is pretty much in desperation mode. Tied with the Suns for the Western Conference's final playoff spot, it actually hosts Phoenix on Tuesday.

The Jazz have won their last two-games, in triple OT on Monday over the Mavericks and a 112-91 victory over the Blazers on Wednesday.

"We feel great. We're in the mix," coach Tyrone Corbin said yesterday. "We're just going to continue to take care of our business. We can't afford to watch and see what anybody else is doing. We've got to make sure we win our games and whatever happens from there on happens."

The Jazz are 10-2 at EnerySolutions Arena since the break, and have the advantage of finishing out the regular season in front of the home town crowd.

Because of the positions that each team finds itself in, I believe that tonight's contest will be a tight, defensive affair, and will therefore recommend a play on the "under".

Jim Feist

Denver Nuggets vs Phoenix Suns
Pick: Denver Nuggets

Denver has plenty of motivation, trying to hang on to the No. 7 seed and they have a shot at overtaking Dallas for the No. 6 spot. The Nuggets are 27-9 ATS in their last 36 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and 35-16 ATS in their last 51 road games. The Suns are off an emotional, last second win over the Clippers and they are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a win. The Nuggets are 4-0-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Play the Denver Nuggets.

Dave Cokin

Cleveland Indians vs Oakland Athletics
Pick: Cleveland Indians

The Indians are still hot and the A's still aren't hitting. Brandon McCarthy is not looking like the pitcher he was in 2010 and whole it's a very small sample, Jeanmar Gomez seems to have improved. I'll give the Indians a play at the underdog odds.

SPORTS WAGERS

Atlanta -123 over ARIZONA

The absolute best pitchers in the game will win between 15 and 20 games and there aren’t many of them that fall into that category. The good pitchers win somewhere in the neighborhood of 10 and then there’s everyone else, including Joe Saunders. Saunders is 2-0 after two starts and there’s very little chance of him sustaining any prolonged winning streaks. Saunders barely made the team out of spring after allowing 25 hits, 13 runs and posted a 7.98 ERA in 14 spring innings. Only twice in his seven year career has his ERA been below 4.25. Saunders first two victims this year were the Pirates and San Diego, not exactly the cream of the crop. Things get much more difficult here against the red-hot bats of the Atlanta Braves. Atlanta has scored nine runs or more in four straight. They’ve scored six or more in eight of its past 10. They have thrived in the first two games of this series with 19 runs on 28 hits. They’ll be licking their chops to get back to the park and get at Joe Saunders. Tommy Hanson makes his fourth start of the year. He’s 1-2 and one of those losses was the season opener to the Mets by a score of 1-0. He’s struck out 16 batters in 15 frames and he’s considered to be the ace of the staff. Hanson over Saunders combined with the way the Braves are swinging the bats screams for a wager on the Braves and we’re happy to oblige. Play: Atlanta -123 (Risking 2 units to win 1.62).

Texas +101 over DETROIT (GAME 1 of DH)

The Rangers look unstoppable with some sick numbers right across the board. To beat this intruder, you’ll usually require five runs or more because of their offensive prowess. Texas is 6-0 on the road. Overall, they’ve won seven in a row. Over that span, the team is batting .367. Over their past five games they’ve hit 11 jacks, scored 44 runs and have walked 22 times. They came in here last night and whacked the Tigers 10-3. That was a flattering score to Detroit, as the Rangers had seven hits and two walks in the first two innings and scored twice. Current Rangers batters have hit .372 over Tigers starter today, Rick Porcello. Meanwhile, Matt Harrison has raced out to a 2-0 record with a glistening 0.64 ERA. He has yielded just one run over 14 innings pitched while recording seven strikeouts and establishing himself as another solid starter in the Texas rotation. It makes a huge difference on the mound for pitchers knowing that if they allow runs, the offense can get them back in a hurry. This is a Texas club without any easy outs in the lineup and they’re having fun flexing their muscles at the moment Play: Texas +101 (Risking 2 units).

Cleveland +122 over OAKLAND

The Indians are quietly 7-5 with a 6-1 record on the road. They took the opener 4-3 last night and there’s no reason that success can’t continue here. The Indians are fifth in the league in runs scored behind Atlanta, Texas, St. Louis and the Yankees. They’re hitting .290 away from Progressive Field and current Cleveland hitters have had 115 AB’s against Brandon McCarthy. McCarthy has made four starts already and has yet to record a win. That first win suddenly becomes very illusive when you don’t have one after four starts and then you try and become too fine. In 25 innings, McCarthy has allowed 30 hits, three jacks and a BAA of .300. His command remains solid but numerous arm and shoulder issues over the years, including a DL stint in 2011 and large workload increase last season are caution flags. He threw 171 innings last year while never pitching more than 102 previously. Jeanmar Gomez has thrown just four innings this season. He pitched out of relief in his first appearance and was ejected in his second after plunking a batter. Gomez is just 25 years old and has not shown much in his limited major league action. However, a big groundball profile is emerging and there could be something good here. He had a 53% groundball rate in 2011. His GB rate this year is 89% and while it’s a small sample, this is a pitcher-friendly park in which Gomez has a great chance to succeed in. Current A’s batters have only seen Gomez for a combined 27 AB’s and that, too, favors the visitor. Play: Cleveland +122 (Risking 2 units).

EZWINNERS

Los Angeles Dodgers -188

The Astros starting pitcher Kyle Weiland took the loss in his last start against the Nats and Stephen Strasburg and his margin for error is very low once again as the Dodgers send the reigning NL Cy Young winner to the mound in Clayton Kershaw. Weiland has an ERA of 8.44 so far this season and has allowed eighteen hits in just 10 2/3 innings of work. I look for the Dodgers to put a few runs on the board and that should be enough support for Kershaw. The Dodgers ace has not pitched his best yet this season and still has a 0-0 record, but his ERA is only 2.35 and I look for him to pick up his first win of the season in this game. Play on Los Angeles.

Stephen Nover

Minnesota +180

The Twins are playing well. They are averaging 14 baserunners during their last five games.

Tampa Bay starter James Shields has a 4.69 lifetime ERA versus Minnesota in nine starts. Joe Mauer, Josh Willingham and Justin Morneau all have good career numbers versus Shields.

Twins starter Carl Pavano has a 3.47 lifetime ERA versus Tampa Bay. He was solid in his last outing, holding the Yankees to three runs in seven inning this past Monday.

This is too big of a number. So I'll take the value and take a shot with Minnesota.

JR O'Donnell

Philadelphia -154

We don't normally like this big of a favorite -154, but this is the best members move Saturday has to offer, & we want to roll out a winner give you a WINNER! The Phillies are a surprising 6-7 while San Padres are just 3-11. Tonight's Phila starter has half of their victories at 3-0. Righty Roy Halladay has been just expected this season, with a 3-0 record, 1.17 ERA & a .78 WHIP. Halladay has averaged just short of "8" innings per outing, even though his velocity has dropped some from the last two years. He shows no arm problems, and seems to just need a couple runs to bring home a win! His mound opponent Luebke (lefty) is 1-1, 3.71 ERA and a 1.47 WHIP. He features his changeup, which he threw every "6' pitches in his last outing. He seems to have settled in after two shaky outings, but the Padres are 2-6 vs. RHP, and 1-9 as a DOG! Luebke's only strong performance has been at Colorado where he was superb, but he lost at home to Arizona & the Dodgers. In his "23" innings pitched, Halladay has surrendered "3" runs total, and relys on his cut fastball almost 50% of the time.

DOM CHAMBERS

For my free selection, let’s take a look at the Denver Nuggets to cover against the Phoenix Suns.

Both teams are trying to secure a playoff spot, but this matchup does not fare well for the Suns. The Nuggets have won the last five meetings between the teams, including twice this season.

The Suns have alternated wins and losses for its last seven games and is coming off a 93-90 win over the Clippers.

The Nuggets are playing well, winning four its last six games.

These teams are very similar, statistically, with the Nuggets averaging 102.8 points game over its last five games, while the Suns average 103.6. I expect this to be a fast-tempo game and to be a close game.

Getting points in this spot is attractive, especially with the team that has dominated the matchup.

Take the Nuggets.

2♦ NUGGETS

JEFF BENTON

Your Saturday freebie is the Denver Nuggets in the road dog role at Phoenix.

The Suns are clinging to a thin reed as they try and hold on to the #8 spot in the Western Conference, and Thursday's home win and cover over the playoff-bound Clippers improves Phoenix to a righteous 14-4 against the spread their last 18 home games. That is the good news.

The bad news is Phoenix has had no luck the last five times they have faced playoff-bound Denver, as the Nuggets not only have won the past five series meetings straight up, but they have also gone a money-turning 4-0-1 against the spread in those five meetings.

My feeling is this line is a little inflated and that the Suns will be happy with any win they can get against a team that has beaten them five straight. That being the case, the points are very valuable today with a Denver team that has cashed three of their last four in the underdog role, and owns a 19-11 road spread mark for the year.

Phoenix will not play again until Tuesday in Utah, and the Jazz are one of the teams vying with the Suns for that final playoff spot. Obviously the Suns can help their cause with the "W" today, and they may indeed get that win, but it will not come by the required impost.

Denver is a live-dog today boys!

2♦ DENVER