MATT RIVERS
Your Saturday basketball comp play is to back the Miami Heat to just blast the Washington Wizards.
Miami is fresh off their home win and cover over the Derrick Rose-less Bulls on Thursday night, and still have a shot at catching the Bulls for the East's #1 seed.
No chance Miami drops this game outright, so the next question is will they cover this double-digit impost, and I believe they will. Miami has covered the last pair of times (blowouts of Charlotte and Detroit) they have been listed as the double-digit favorite, and they cover here.
Washington has actually won outright in four of their last six games, including a win over Chicago, so there is not a chance in the world Miami will overlook the Wizards at this point of the season.
Miami has won the last six meetings against Washington, with the last pair of wins coming by 17 and 16-points respectively.
I don't see the Wizards staying within 19-points in this one.
2♦ MIAMI
SCOTT DELANEY
I expect the Heat to move closer to the top spot in the Eastern Conference with a relatively easy game tonight against the Wizards. The Heat are now just one and a half games off the top spot after Thursday's win against the conference-leading Bulls giving them the right momentum to take over.
I look back to Feb. 10, when the Heat destroyed the Wizards in the only meeting between the teams this season, 106-89.
Washington has nothing to play for, and isn't going to get caught up in trying to do the impossible, and that is to beat Miami on its own court, when it's making a run to the Eastern Conference title. We may even see the Wizards empty the bench and let everyone get some playing time.
And don't you worry about the rumor of Dwyane Wade sitting out this game, he's sat out the last four games against teams with losing records. Wade has missed 14 games this season, and the Heat have won 13 of them. Hey, Chris Bosh might not play either.
That's probably why there is no official line up as of 8:30 a.m. eastern. Don't sweat it, the oddsmakers are waiting for official word, and the line will be set accordingly. Just go with the flow and bet the game when the spread is up.
Take the Heat.
2♦ MIAMI
CHUCK O'BRIEN
My free winner for tonight is going to be the Utah Jazz over the Orlando Magic, as I see Stan Van Gundy's career in O-town close to being over, now that Dwight Howard has packed it in for the season. That's a clear sign the Magic have packed it in as well.
I mean, don't get me wrong, I know the Magic are still going to the postseason, but there won't be any deep runs for this team. It's not getting out of the first round.
The Magic are now 3-5 without Howard, whose bad back requires surgery that will keep him out of the lineup through the postseason and also this summer's Olympics, after they lost to Boston, 102-98, on Wednesday.
The Magic, currently sixth in the Eastern Conference with a playoff berth clinched, play three of their final four regular-season games on the road, beginning tonight in the high altitude of Salt Lake City.
And since the Jazz having something to play for, given, they're tied with Phoenix for the Western Conference's final playoff spot, and have a date with the Suns on Tuesday, I think they're going to be up for this game.
The Jazz have won 11 of the last 15 home meetings with the Magic, and have covered four straight meetings. Take Utah.
2♦ UTAH
DEREK MANCINI
I know my Free Play tonight is going to incredibly unpopular, but I could care less. I didn't get to where I am today by shying away from making the tough calls when my analysis tells me to. Here we have a perfect example, as the Padres host the Phillies in what looks like a gimme. Not so fast.
Problem with this contest is the line makes no sense... Why aren't the Phillies with Halladay on the hill favored by more here? I'm well aware of how well he's pitched against the Padres in the past. I also know full well that the Phillies have dominated this series. Knowing all this, again I ask: Why are they not favored by more? It's almost as if the guys in Vegas are begging us to take Philadelphia, but that makes no sense because everyone was going to be on the Phillies any way.
The answer has to lie in Padres starter Cory Luebke, who's coming off an impressive win at one of the toughest places to pitch, Coors Field. He allowed just 1 run on 6 hits over 7 strong innings. His 12 groundouts were an excellent sign of things to come and should serve him well against this Phillies offense. He was unimpressive in his only career start against the Phillies last July, but it's a small sample size and that one was on the road. Look for him to step up to the challenge of coutering one of the best pitchers in the Majors tonight.
Bottom line, I'm keeping this play small, but I'm confident we're in position to watch a public bloodbath today, as the entire betting world takes the loss on the Phillies. Luebke is underrated, while this number tells me that Halladay could be in for a little more trouble that bettors are anticipating today. As I've told you guys time and time again: oddsmakers aren't stupid, they set this line low (at least lower than expected) for a reason. Small play on the Padres with Luebke over the Phillies and Halladay.
1♦ SAN DIEGO
CHRIS JORDAN
If there is one thing I know about Jered Weaver, that maybe not too many others know at all, it's how hard his father is on him. Still. That's right, the L.A. Angel still hears praise and/or ridicule from his Pops after every home game. He waits for him after every start, at Angel Stadium, and they talk shop. I've heard, at times, Weaver the senior sounds as if he's chastising a little leaguer, not one of the best pitchers in baseball.
Good thing the Angels' ace right-hander is facing the visiting Baltimore Orioles, who will be playing their ninth-straight road game and come in on the heels of losing last night in Anaheim. Since opening up 3-0, the O's are 5-6. And even though that's good enough for first place in the American League East right now - they're tied with the New York Yankees - I don't think they're good enough for Weaver.
The crafty 29-year-old looked like his old self last Monday against the Oakland Athletics, firing 6-2/3 shutout innings, dominating his team's division rival by commanding his fastball and slider early on, then keeping the A's off-balance with his above-average change. He limited Oakland's hitters to just five singles while issuing one walk and striking out six. He already has 23 K's on the season, and is sporting a 2-0 mark and 2.18 ERA.
And make note, Weaver has an impeccable 10-0 record with a 1.85 ERA in 13 starts during the month of April, spanning the last three seasons. Hopefully he's made sure his ticket allotment during that time has always gone to his father, that way post-game chats have remained pleasant. I know tonight's conversation should be good, as I expect Weaver to shut the O's down.
Lay the run line with the Halos.
3♦ L.A. ANGELS -1.5
David Banks
Dallas Mavericks +5
The Chicago Bulls (47-16, 35-27-1 ATS) are suddenly not a lock to win the top seed in the Eastern Conference, as their head-to-head loss to the second seeded Miami Heat Thursday leaves the Bulls with just a one game lead in the loss column with three games to play. They could take one step closer to clinching that top spot here vs. the Dallas Mavericks (35-28, 32-31 ATS), who are currently in the sixth spot in the Western Conference, in this non-conference marquee affair on ESPN Saturday night from the United Center in Chicago, IL at 8:00 ET.
Derrick Rose has played in just three of Chicago's last 19 games and his latest foot injury has kept him out of the last three games, and he will most likely miss this game also. Yes, a lot of the Bulls' success this season has come without Rose in the lineup, but they will need him to make a championship run and considering how late in the year it is now, they may simply hold him out until the playoffs start unless they need to win their regular season finale to clinch home court advantage. They could have used Rose in the 83-72 loss to the Heat Thursday, as that game marked Chicago's season-low in scoring and it was also the first time the Bulls lost all year when allowing 85 points or less. Chicago now leads the NBA in scoring defense allowing only 88.5 points per game and it is ranked second in field goal percentage against at 42.3 percent, so that aspect of the Bulls' game is playoff-ready. However, the offense has been sporadic and that is where they will need Rose, especially if they draw the Heat in the Eastern Conference Finals as everyone expects. In fact, when the Bulls beat the Charlotte Bobcats 100-68 on Wednesday, the night before the Miami debacle, it snapped a 16-game streak where Chicago had failed to reach 100 points during regulation time.
The defending champion Mavericks have had a bit of a down year, but at least it looks like they will get a chance to make another great playoff run as they lead the ninth place Utah Jazz by two games with three games left. It has still been a tough and busy week for Dallas though, as it lost back-to-back road overtime games to the Los Angeles Lakers and Utah Jazz on Sunday and Monday before returning home and beating the fading Houston Rockets 117-110 on Wednesday. They also have a home date with the terrible Golden State Warriors on Friday, meaning that this game with the Bulls will be Dallas's fifth game in seven days. The play of the Dallas defense during this busy stretch has to be alarming as the Mavericks have allowed over 100 points in five of their last six games entering the Golden State contest, and they are allowing 108.4 points per game on 45.4 percent shooting in the last five contests. This is a team that still ranks seventh in the league in field goal percentage allowed for the entire season at 43.4 percent, but you would not know that by its recent play.
This will be the first and only meeting of the season between these teams, but the Bulls won and covered both meetings last season in low scoring affairs, winning 88-83 in Dallas and 82-77 head at the United Center.
Jimmy Boyd
Los Angeles Angels -1.5 +115
The Angels -1.5 get the call as our free play today with ace Jered Weaver getting the ball. He has been ridiculous in both of this season's home starts, going 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA. The Angels won those two starts by scores of 5-0 and 6-0. The Angels are 43-15 in Weaver's last 58 home starts. In addition, the Halos have won 4 in a row at home against the O's by scores of 8-3, 9-8, 7-1 and 6-3. LA's offense came alive Friday, scoring 6 runs on 11 hits, and it stands a good chance of getting to Arrieta, who has allowed 4 runs in each of his last two starts. If the Halos can muster 4 runs for Weaver, they should cover the run line easy.
Ross King
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres
Play: Philadelphia Phillies
Poor San Diego currently 1-10 in night games and it gets no easier on Saturday as here comes Roy Halladay who is 3-0 against them and 3-0 to start the season with an e.r.a of 1.90.Philadelphia look to extend their 13 game road winning streak Saturday against them and look for their 10th consecutive win in San Diego.Philadelphia is 24-4 in San Diego since that parked opened in 2004.Philadelphia is 62-38 versus left handed starters the last 3 seasons.While San Diego hopes mother nature will help them Saturday i can't see the Phillies without Howard and Utley letting them of the hook as the Doctor looks and should start the season 4-0.T
Jeff Alexander
LA Dodgers -1.5 -115
Don't expect the Astros, who are batting just .209 against lefty starters this season, to get much of anything against arguably the best lefty in the game Saturday. Dating back to last season, Kershaw has held the opposition to 2 earned runs or less in 19 of his last 22 starts. Another strong outing from Kershaw gives the Dodgers an excellent chance to cover the run line as Houston's Weiland is 0-2 with an ERA of 8.43. The Astros have lost both of his starts by at least 2 runs. Take the Dodgers on the run line.
Jack Jones
Philadelphia 76ers +5
The Indiana Pacers have already locked up the No. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference playoff race. They can't improve, and they can't fall down any lower. As a result, the Pacers will have a hard time getting motivated to play any of their last three games, including tonight against the Philadelphia 76errs.
Philly has a lot still to play for heading into this one. The 76ers can finally wrap up the East's last available playoff spot Saturday night. While the 76ers have been struggling, I'll gladly back the team that actually has something to play for in this one.
The Pacers are 1-12 ATS after covering 4 or 5 of their last 6 against the spread this season. Indiana is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5. Philly is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game. Bet the 76ers Saturday.
Dave Price
Toronto Blue Jays -120
We'll fade the Royals, who have lost 8 in a row, at a great price. 7 of those losses have come at home, where the Royals are now 10-26 in their last 36 games as an underdog. The Blue Jays have more pop at the plate and I believe they are putting the more talented starter on the hill as well (Hutchison went 14-5 with a 2.53 ERA and struck out 171 over 149 1-3 innings while walking 35 in the minors last year).
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
St Louis -125 over PITTSBURGH: Another game that I feel will move before game time and it already has, that's why i got it out early. Jake Westbrook was a big pickup for the Cards back in 2010, but prior to this year he had gone just 16-13 with a 4.32 ERA in his first 45 starts as a member of the Cards. This year, so far, he looks like the pitcher they were expecting all along. So far in the ear;y going Jake has a 2-0 mark with an 0.64 ERA and he has allowed just 7 hit in 14 innings of work. Now he gets to face an Inept Pittsburgh offense that has averaged just 2 rpg an has hit just .181 at home on the year. Jake has not fared well at all vs Pittsburgh as he is 0-3 with a 7.06 ERA in 4 career starts vs them, but this is a different Jake this year and he should have a good showing vs this bad Pittsburgh offense. Jake also has a very good offense behind him, as the Cards are 4th in scoring (5.5 rpg) and 2nd in hitting (.287) and they will be taking on a pitcher that really struggles at home. For Some reason Kevin Correia just doesn't pitch well at home. Kevin has 16 appearances(14 starts) at PNC park and he is 4-8 with a 6,58 ERA in those games, while last year he went just 2-8 with a 7.83 ERA in his 12 home starts. He is 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA on the year so far but both starts were on the road and he has faced the Cards once in this park and he allowed 7 ER in 4.2 innings of work. Pittsburgh is improved this year, but their offense is just doesn't have enough here to get the win and with the way Correia struggles at home this should be an easy Cards win.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Miami/ Washington Under 6.5: The Nats have done it with pitching this year, as they are 2nd in the league in ERA (2.38) and 2ind in WHIP (1.06), plus they lead the league in K's. Today's starter, Stephen Strausburg is the best of the bunch. He may not have the best ERA on the team,, but he is clearly their ace. Stephen comes in with a 1.42 ERA in 3 starts so far and he has allowed just 13 hits in 19 innings. Stephen also has a 2.82 ERA in 4 starts vs the Fish, including a 0.75 ERA in 2 starts vs them last year. This guy is tough. He will be taking on a Miami offense that had been going strong of late, but that was due to playing at home. On the road this team has struggled to score as they have hit just .221 away from home and have averaged just 3 rpg on the road, while in their last 3 away from home they have scored just 2 total runs. As I said at the top, the Nats have done it with pitching this year as they are 24th in the league in scoring (3.67 rpg), while at home they have put up just (3.33 rpg). It won't get any easier for them today vs Anibel Sanchez, who has a 2.92 ERA on the year. Anibel has also dominated this team, going 7-0 with a 2.06 ERA in 17 starts vs them, including posting a 1.35 ERA in his last 5 starts vs them, while in 5 starts at Nationals Park he has a skinny 0.83 ERA vs them. This game will be all about pitching and it could be one of those classic pitching duel. The Fish can't hit or score on the road and the Nats have the same problems at home I don't expect more than 4 runs in this one.
Philadelphia -144 over SAN DIEGO: I got this play out early, because it's not often that you will find Roy Halladay at this cheap a price and I expect it to go higher by game time. The Phils are clearly the better team and they have a huge advantage on the mound in Halladay over Luebke. Roy Halladay has been dominant once again to start the year as he is 3-0 with a 1.17 ERA in his 3 starts so far. He has also has an 0.78 WHIP and the Phils as a team have allowed just 1 rpg in his starts. Roy is also 3-0 with a 1.90 ERA in 3 starts vs the Padres and in 1 start here last year he allowed just 1 ER in 8.2 innings of work. His numbers should not take a hit at all vs this sorry Padres offense. The Padres come in 28th in hitting (.211) and 27th in runs scored (3.27 rpg), but at home they are hitting .177 (29th) and have scored just 2.44 rpg (29th). Not very good numbers when your taking on a staff that has allowed just 2 runs in their last 32.33 innings (0.56 ERA). The Phils offense does struggle to score as they are 29th in scoring (2.93 rpg), but their hitting is coming around as they have hit .261 in their last 10 games. Now really in this park, with as bad as the Padres have hit with the pitching that the Phils have on the mound, Philly really only needs to score 2 or 3 runs in this one. I expect them to get at least 3 vs Luebke, who has a 3.67 ERA on the year, while Halladay and company should hold the Padres to 1 or less.
Cleveland/ Oakland Under 7: Jeanmar Gomez has just 1 start on the year, but he allowed 1 ER on no hits in 4 innings in that start. Tonight he will face an Oakland team that he had good success vs last year as he had an 0.79 ERA in 2 starts vs the A's in 2011. He shouldn't have a problem keeping up with those numbers vs an Oakland team that has hit just .203 and has scored just 3 rpg at home. Cleveland has bee a scoring machine on the road (6.86 rpg), but they come in struggling a bit as they have totaled just 7 runs in their last 3 on this current trip. Part of the reason for their offense slump has been that were missing Asdrubal Cabrera in their last 3 games and he will be out today as well. Brandon McCarthy has not had a great start, but he has pitched well with a 3.60 ERA., but his teammates have not helped him as they have put up just 2.7 rpg for him in his 4 starts. Brandon does have a 3.60 ERA in his last 5 starts vs the Tribe and a 3.27 ERA overall in this park. Dating back to 2010 just 1 of the last 10 in this series has put up more than than 7 runs and I don't see it happening here either.
LA Dodgers -1.5 (-120) over HOUSTON: Now the Astros are playing like the team I thought they would be... Bad. After starting the year 3-1, the Astros have since gone 2-8 and have really struggled on offense for the most part of late, as they have hit just .246 and put 3.4 rpg on the board in their last 10 games. Even that 3.4 rpg is a bit deceiving as they put up 11 runs on Washington in 1 game during that stretch. It won't get any easier for that offense tonight as they face Clayton Kershaw, who is still looking for his first win, despite posting a 2.25 ERA in his 2 starts, plus let's also not the LA Pitching has limited Houston to just 2 total runs in the last 5 meetings, while LA has taken the last 3 by 2 runs or more. Claton is 2-0 with an 0.85 ERA in his last 3 starts vs Houston and in the two wins the Dodgers covered the RL in both. The LA Offense has been a surprise and it has been led by Matt Kemp, who is on another planet right now, as he is hitting .481 with 8 HR's so far in the early going. Tonight he really has a chance to pad his stats vs Kyle Weiland, who is 0-5 with an 8.63 ERA in 7 career starts and he has been outscored by 2 runs or more in 4 of the 5 losses. Classic mismatch pitching matchup and this is another bad team that LA has faced and they are10-1 on the year vs teams not named Milwaukee. I look for LA to make is 6 in a row over that Stros in easy fashion tonight.
2 UNIT PLAYS
New York Yanks/ Boston Over 11: I had the OVER in this game yesterday and the disappointed me, but I will come right back with it. Freddy Garcia has not pitched well out the gate as he has a 6.97 ERA in 2 starts and it should not get much better today vs a Boston team that is desperate and hits very well at home. Boston has hit .285 and scored 5.57 rpg at home so far this year and Garcia does have a career 4.32 ERA in this park. The Yankee offense is clicking right now as they have hit .318 and have scored 5.80 in their last 5 games and they will be taking on Felix Doubront, who has just 5 career starts, including 2 this year with a 5.40 ERA in his 2 starts so far. Both offenses should have a good day as this one sneaks over the total.
TAMPA BAY -1.5 (+110) over Minnesota: I know a bunch here are on the Twins, but I will head the other way. Although teams have a plus .500 mark this year when playing their 1st home game off a long trip, it is still a good rule that those teams will struggle in that situation and that's just what the Rays did last night as they lost to the Twins after an 11 game trip. Well I expect them to bounce back in a big way tonight. Part of the reason that many are on the Twins is because of the numbers that Morneau, Mauer and Willingham (20-for-57 with 1 HR and 10 RBI's) have put up on Shields, but Morneau is out and he has that lone HR and 4 of the 10 RBI's off of Shields. The Rays offense is struggling but should get going vs Pavano, while Shields, who is 14-4 with a 3.07 ERA in March/ Aptil and 39-26 with a 3.42 ERA at the Trop, should cool off this hot hitting Minnesota team. Rays bounce back here.
1 UNIT PLAYS
DETROIT -103 over Texas: (1st Game) Matt Harrison is off to a great start, but how long will an 0.64 ERA last, plus this is a team he has struggled with, as he is 0-4 with a 7.43 ERA in 5 career starts vs the Tigers. The Tigers never saw Darvish till last night so he got the advantage over them and held them to a season low 5 hits. This offense is too strong for that to happen on BB game, especially in their own park, where they have averaged 6.1 rpg so far. Rick Porcello is off to a fine start for Detroit, with a 1-0 mark and a 1.84 ERA in 2 starts and he just could be the one to slow this offense down here. Coming into the year Detroit was favored by many to win it all and after getting beat bad at home last night, you can expect them to be fully focused for this one and get some revenge. Detroit hits Harrison hard again and bounces back nicely here.
KANSAS CITY +104 over Toronto: The Royals have hit the Skids, but they should bounce back today Drew Hutchinson will be making his 1st career start for the Jays, so they do get the advantage there, but a Royals offense that has struggled should be able to tag him for a few here. Luis Mendoza has struggled out the gate, but he has has a decent ERA (3.75) in 2 career starts vs the Jays. He is 1-01 in those starts. Look for the Royals to end their 8 game losing streak here.
WUNDERDOG
Miami at Washington
Pick: Miami +160
The Miami Marlins put together a pitching staff and lineup so they could make the difference in big pitching matchups. They will get a chance to test that against one of the best as the Nationals send Stephen Strasburg to the mound. The Nats offense is ultimately going to be their demise. Right now it is starting to show its inefficiencies as they have scored just ten runs in their last four games and have scored four or less 11 times this season already. Anibel Sanchez has not allowed more than three earned runs in each of his last eight starts back to the end of last season and just two in each of his 2012 starts. He is more than capable of matching Strasburg here. The Marlins are now 4-1 in his last five starts on five days rest. The Marlins are also 26-10 in their last 36 here, including 5-1 behind Sanchez. Play on Miami.
SEAN MURPHY
Minnesota Twins @ Tampa Bay Rays
PICK: Tampa Bay Rays
We won with the Twins in the opener of this series last night, but we'll switch gears and lay the chalk with the Rays on Saturday.
Minnesota took advantage of some weak Tampa Bay pitching on Friday, but I don't expect that to be the case again tonight. The Rays will send their ace, James Shields to the mound in search of his third win of the season.
Shields has been lights out since a rocky season debut, allowing only 10 hits and two earned runs over his last two outings, spanning 16 1/3 innings of work. Keep in mind, he's run into three very tough opponents in the Yankees, Tigers, and Red Sox, and has come away unscathed, posting a perfect 3-0 team record. He'll be taking a major step down in class tonight.
The Twins will counter with Carl Pavano. He had a resurgence in 2010, winning 17 games while posting a 3.75 ERA. However, that's really been the lone bright spot since 2004. Last year, Pavano fell back to earth, going 9-13 with a 4.30 ERA. He hasn't picked it up here in 2012, posting a 1-1 record to go along with an ugly 5.23 ERA through his first three starts.
After Pavano exits things could get messy for the Twins. Their bullpen is worn out thanks to their last four starters topping out at 5 2/3 innings pitched.
The Rays were in a tough spot last night, after getting into St. Petersburg at 4 am, and coming off three straight tough road series' against the Tigers, Red Sox, and Blue Jays. Their focus was clearly lacking early on, something I don't suspect will be an issue tonight.
NHL Predictions
Blackhawks / Coyotes Under 5
The Coyotes hold a 3-1 lead heading back home and would love to avoid going back to Chicago for a Game 6. All 4 games of this series have gone into OT, with 3 of the 4 finishing right on tonight's total at 5. In each of those games we have seen some late third period goals that forced what would be a "push" with the total set at 5. I think tonight we see one of these two teams close it out without blowing a late lead. Being an elimination game both teams are going to be focused on their defensive play just a little more than the previous games, and I look for both Mike Smith and Corey Crawford to be on their "A" games. Take note that we've only seen 3 powerplay goals this entire series. I like the value on the UNDER tonight, as we hope Phoenix can close it out in a low scoring game to cash both the UNDER and the series play on Phoenix.