Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, April 2,2011

MTi Sports

Seattle Mariners at Oakland Athletics
Prediction: Oakland Athletics

The Athletics are 8-0 as a favorite after a loss in which they drew 1 or fewer walks and 8-0 as a favorite after a loss in which they were shut out in the last 6 innings. The Mariners are 0-8 when Jason Vargas starts. Consider the Athletics.

Marc Lawrence

Dallas Mavericks at Golden State Warriors
Prediction: Golden State Warriors

The Warriors host the Mavericks in a Western Conference clash at Golden State Saturday evening they will take the court knowing they are 11-3 SU and ATS the last 14 games in this series when Dallas arrives off a loss of 15 or more points in its last game, including 8-1 ATS at home. With the Warriors looking to avenge a trio of losses in this series this season, look for the Warriors to come up golden tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Golden State.

Matt Fargo

Arizona D-Backs vs. Colorado Rockies
Play: Colorado Rockies

Colorado lost its opener last night in extra inning but I expect the Rockies to bounce back strong tonight. In a wide open division, Colorado is one of four teams that should be competing for the N.L. West crown and it will be doing with a strong offense and solid pitching. The Rockies have not won since last September 25th as they closed the regular season with eight straight losses and while that means nothing for this season, it is safe to say the Rockies players are hungry to get back into the win column. While Colorado is a contender in the division, the Diamondbacks are likely the only team not in the mix. Arizona was 65-97 a year ago no thanks to the second worst pitching in the National League in terms of ERA. There is not a whole lot of confidence heading into this season and we saw last night a preview as six Diamondback pitchers allowed 13 hits. Arizona finished 25-56 on the road last season which was the second worst road record in all of baseball which included a 2-7 record in Colorado. Rockies ace Ubaldo Jimenez was shelled pretty hard on Friday and they are hoping for a better performance from number two guy Jorge De La Rosa. His season a year ago was cut short by injuries and Colorado really needs him to stay healthy. He pitched strong down the stretch of 2010 and he has been especially effective against Arizona throughout his career as he has a 2.21 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in nine starts with six of the last seven being quality outings including both last season. Daniel Hudson has a huge upside and he was very effective last season after coming over from Chicago as he went 7-1 with a 1.69 ERA and 0.84 WHIP in 11 starts with the Diamondbacks. All 11 of those starts were quality outings so going against him here may seem questionable but he was somewhat shaky this spring with a 1.68 WHIP and allowing baserunners in Colorado is a recipe for disaster. The loss last night by the Rockies sets up a good situation for a bounceback tonight. 3* Colorado Rockies

Charlie Scott

Kentucky vs. Connecticut
Play: Under 140.5

Two High- profile public teams Kentucky/U Conn in a Big game with lots of action. On offense U Conn only has 2 legitimate threats, but do play good defense and have had a week to prepare for Kentucky's simplified offense. Kentucky is 3-0-1 UNDER, while U Conn is 3-1 Under in this years NCAA Tournament play. Young players in Big Games in strange huge arenas.

Ben Burns

Thrashers @ Bruins Apr
PICK: Under 5.5

All three of this season's meetings between the Bruins and Thrashers have stayed below the total. Each produced exactly five goals. Going back a bit further finds the "under" at 5-0 the last five times that these teams faced each other. With an O/U line of 5.5, I feel the "under" is again worth a second look.

The Bruins gave up four goals last time out, dropping a 4-3 decision vs. a desperate Toronto club. However, prior to that game, they'd allowed only three goals in their previous five games. Note that the "under" is 13-8 this season, when the Bruins have played a home game with an O/U line of 5.5.

The Thrashers are off a 1-0 victory in their last game. That brings the "under" to 4-1 their last five games. All four of those "unders" finished with four or fewer combined goals.

With the "under" also at 3-0 the last three times that the Thrashers were off a shutout, I won't be surprised if we see another relatively low-scoring affair. Consider the UNDER

Ray Monohan

Houston Astros vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Play: Philadelphia Phillies -1½

Lee will make his second debut with the Phillies on Saturday against Houston in the second of a three-game series. The Astros will go with Wandy Rodriguez (11-12, 3.60 in 2010), who had a shoulder problem down the stretch of spring training, but apparently he says he is fine and came through his final bullpen session with no problems. The Astros can’t afford to lose Rodriguez, who would be their No.2 starter behind former Phillie Brett Myers, but Houston is giving him more time to get healthy. The veteran southpaw is 2-1 in five appearances (three starts) with a 3.05 ERA against the Phillies, and he is 1-0 in three games (one start) with a 3.12 ERA in Philadelphia. Lee (12-9, 3.18 ERA in 2010) split his time between Seattle and Texas, and was up and down in the spring, but Lee has always been a good early-season pitcher, and remember, this is his first full spring with the Phillies as he was brought in to make 12 regular-season starts in 2009, going 7-4 with a 3.39 ERA, and he was 4-0 in five postseason starts with a 1.56 ERA as the Phillies lost to the New York Yankees in the World Series. I'm on the Phillies -1.5 on Saturday in what will be their second game of the season. Lee will get his act together against the Astros for this game, and we’re skeptical on the health of Rodriguez, who wasn’t having a great spring anyway. The Phillies will want to jump out of the gate quickly, and they will be led by Lee. Go with the Philadelphia Phillies big.

Jordan Haimowitz

Seattle Mariners vs. Oakland A's
Play: Oakland A's -1½

Jason Vargas goes for Seattle and Brett Anderson goes for Oakland. You have two teams who can not hit well but the A's sport the much better pitcher. Oakland was a lot of people's sleeper team due to some off season additions and a young but very talented pitching staff. Anderson is one of those guys. Seattle will not score more then 2 runs tonight which should easily cover the -1.5.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Minnesota Timberwolves +13

The T-Wolves led the Heat at the break last night but were outscored 25-1 to start the third quarter. As if that embarrassing performance isn't enough to get the blood boiling, the Wolves will draw extra motivation from 3 losses to Memphis this season. It's tough to defeat any team 4 straight times in the same season because teams don't like to be swept. Minnesota should show up with a little something extra for this one. It will also be to Minnesota's benefit that Memphis is coming off a big win over the Hornets that moved it into a tie for 7th in the West. That win sets the Grizzlies up for a bit of a letdown this evening. While I don't think Minnesota can pull this one out, it should be able to keep it closer than the odds makers have projected. Consider that the Timberwolves are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog of 11.0 points or more and the Grizzlies are 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games as a home favorite of 11.0 or more points. This game is about pride for the T-Wolves. They'll fight hard tonight, keeping this one within the number as a result. Take the points.

Jim Feist

Padres vs. Cardinals
Play: Over 8

Clayton Richard of the Padres had an ERA of 3.15 at home last year and 4.41 on the road. Richard hurt his shoulder in spring training and in his last outing he got hammered for ten hits and seven earned runs in 4 2/3 innings. Richard limped a bit to the finish in 2010, as well, with a 4.33 ERA and 1.50 WHIP after the break. 10-year veteran Jake Westbrook goes for the Cardinals. He is a notoriously slow starter and last season went 0-2 with a 5.53 ERA in April (4.75 ERA before the All Star break). Look for more runs than oddsmakers expect; Play the Padres/Cardinals Over the total.

Brent Brooks

Brewers +110

Saturday's MLB Pick of the Day is MIL over CIN. Most of the Reds hitters have never faced Marcum who had a great first half last year for Toronto. Questions surround young lefty Travis Wood after his relatively high IP total last year. Grab the value with the Brew Crew as a 1* Freebie.

Brad Diamond Sports

Baltimore over Tampa Bay

I am unaware of the Friday result in game #1 of this series, but I have a hunch the struggling Orioles have a chance to steal game #2. I think the world of RHP Shields of Tamp Bay, but I fully expect Baltimore’s left-hander Brian Matusz to have a huge year. In his short two year career the youngster has put together a 15-14 record with a 4.37 ERA. Life time versus the Rays, lefty Matusz is 3-1. Veteran hurler Shields of Tampa Bay is coming off a difficult campaign issuing a 13-15 record and a horrid 5.71 ERA. Technically, the Rays are on a run of 0-6 versus LHP and 0-4 in Shields’ last four starts. The Orioles have won 5 straight versus RHP and show with a super 4-0 mark in the last four starts made by Brian Matusz. Take the Orioles as a valued UNDERDOG. In other baseball games, favor the Cardinals and Dodgers.

SPORTS WAGERS

Kentucky –2 over Connecticut

Nobody has been more instrumental in his team's productivity and success than Kemba Walker has been. He has accounted for 176 of UConn's 289 points in the NCAA tournament or 61%, which is the most of any player in the tournament. Jeremy Lamb is also dangerous and has emerged as a clutch shooter. The Huskies are a good defensive team, they’re an excellent rebounding team and they’re going to be a tough out. However, they rely heavily on two guys to score and the more half-court sets UConn is forced to run, the less effective its offence will be. Frankly, they’re not really a good shooting team. Walker torched Kentucky for 29 in the Maui Classic back in late November. It wouldn't be the last time Walker would wreak havoc on a quality team. John Calipari has experience with "great player" defence from his days in the NBA and this time around he’ll make adjustments and you can bet that DeAndre Liggins will be involved. One could argue that Kentucky has already defeated two teams (Ohio State, North Carolina) that are better than anyone it will face in Houston. Does that mean the Wildcats are the best team at the Final Four? Perhaps not but it could certainly mean UK is the most prepared to win two more games. Play: Kentucky –2 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).

Butler –2½ over VCU

There’s a right time to step in and step out on a team and this could be the right time to step out on the Rams. VCU was a 9½-point pooch against Purdue and an 11-point dog against Kansas and not only covered but won both of those games straight up. Obviously, they were grossly undervalued. Against FSU, the Rams were lined up in a lower range as a 4½-point dog and won again. The party is over, as the Rams are no longer undervalued. That doesn’t mean they’re overvalued here, as they can win this game, it just means that it’s not the right time to play them. Butler defence has proven throughout this tourney that its stellar defensive play can limit its opposition’s best player and they will likely succeed in this one. VCU relies heavily on guard Joey Rodriguez doing his thing. The Rams like to create havoc with its offensive pressure, while Butler looks to create a half-court game. VCU has had trouble with teams that force them into the half-court game. The only way to "explain" VCU’s upset over Kansas is that VCU played better. VCU did not cause Kansas to miss 13 free throws and miss so many open field goal attempts. The Rams have also been extremely successful from 3-pt land. Butler’s solid defensive play and its experience ends this year’s Cinderella story. Play: Butler –2½. Play: Butler –2½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).

SPORTS WAGERS

Dallas +139 over LOS ANGELES

4:00 PM EST. This is the Stars last chance of making the playoffs. A loss here and they can start booking tee-off times, as they sit five points behind Chicago with a game in hand. This is that game in hand and they can get to within three with a win. The Stars are in a funk at the worst time and they’re also coming off a 6-0 loss at San Jose. However, that loss came one game after they outshot Phoenix 45-27 and lost 2-1 so frustration was a factor. The Kings meanwhile, don’t look so good since losing Anze Kopitar and Justin Williams. Since losing that pair the Kings are 1-1 but scores just twice on Edmonton and just one on Vancouver. L.A. has labored all year offensively and one also has to wonder about its state of mind heading into the playoffs. It absolutely puts a damper on things, as Kopitar is the Kings most important player. Furthermore, the Stars and Kings always play tight games and it’s always a toss-up as to who will win. The last six games have been split 3-3 and with a take-back like this against a weaker Kings club, the Stars are very live. Play: Dallas +139 (Risking 2 units).

Toronto -½ +149 over OTTAWA

The Leafs are on the road here but it’s not going to have the feel of a road game, as there’s likely to be just as many Leaf fans in the joint as Sens fans. More importantly, however, is the way the Leafs are playing. In the second half of the season they have the NHL’s fifth best record and recently have two wins over the Bruins and scored nine goals in the process. Incidentally, 10 of the Leafs last 11 goals have come from 10 different players. The Maple Leafs have a swagger about them that hasn’t been seen in Toronto for a very long time and they have a goaltender that instills nothing but more confidence. The Leafs are not out of it yet and they’re not going down without a fight. They’ll be ready again tonight and the Sens are certainly beatable. The Sens are without its two best rearguards in Erik Karlsson and Sergei Gonchar. They’re coming off a 4-1 win over the offensively challenged Panthers in a game they were badly outplayed in and outshot in by a count of 38-23. Prior to that they had dropped two straight and allowed five goals against in both games. Yeah, Ottawa would love to knock the Leafs out of it but they don’t have the personnel and the Leafs are too determined right now to lose to this inferior host. Play: Toronto -½ +149 (Risking 2 units).

SPORTS WAGERS

Pittsburgh +173 over CHICAGO

Over the past three seasons Carlos Zambrano has fared worse at Wrigley Field than on the road and his numbers have been on a steady decline every year. Zambrano is just not good anymore and there’s plenty of proof. A look at Zambrano's xERA (expected ERA) the last four years and you will see a very mediocre pitcher and a disturbing downward trend. It went from 4.41 in 2007 to 4.55 in ’08 to 4.57 in ’09 and last year his xERA was 4.89. Zambrano used to be very adept at keeping runners off the bases, used to being the operative words. You want to lay big juice on a guy with a 1.50 WHIP over the last couple of years? Carlos Zambrano is mediocre and he isn't likely to get better. It's hard to believe that Carlos Zambrano is just 29 years old, but we need look no further than the IP column to know that he is an old 29. Remember: this is the same guy getting paid like a #1 starter who got relegated to middle relief duties last season. His spring stats don’t instill optimism either, as he walked 11, struck out 12 and surrendered 24 hits in 22.2 frames. Paul Maholm is a shoo-in for lots of IP and probably another inconsistent season. Maholm’s saving grace is that he does a good job of keeping the ball on the ground. He’s occasionally dominant and occasionally disastrous with a whole lot of “meh” in-between. In fact, that pretty much sums up Maholm’s career – he’s consistent, but unspectacular. His strong groundball tendency could lead to success in any game and certainly he and the Bucs are very worthy of a bet against Zambrano and the Cubbies. Cubs picked up where they left off last season with a horrible showing in the opener and there’s nothing that suggests today will be different. Big overlay. Play: Pittsburgh +173 (Risking 2 units).

Boston +107 over TEXAS

The bottom line here is that you always have to consider the Red Sox when they’re taking back a tag. We might also be backing a very undervalued John Lackey. Lackey ranked as one of the AL's most obvious disappointments in 2010, as he finished with a 4.00+ ERA for the first time since 2004. Lackey switched teams entering last season after spending his entire career prior to 2010 with one organization. Whether the change in venue to a home ballpark that is less advantageous to pitchers, a move to an unfamiliar setting, or whether there may have been a first-half minor injury that was concealed, there was something clearly different during last season's first half. His return to form in the second half is reassuring as we look toward 2011. Lackey’s skills returned in second half and he’s coming off a very decent spring in which his ERA was 3.43 in 21 IP. He also walked just three batters in the spring. Lackey is somewhat of a forgotten man but could be a big sleeper to start the year. While Lackey was a big disappointment in 2010, the performance of Colby Lewis was arguably one of the year's biggest surprises, especially given his spotty MLB past. Another concern regarding Lewis is his groundball/fly-ball profile, which was 37%/46% and this park is not kind to fly-ball pitchers. In any case, the Red Sox lineup is so lethal that they’re always worth a bet at a price, as surely they can win this game. Play: Boston +107 (Risking 2 units).

CLEVELAND +128 over Chicago

Carlos Carrasco quietly showed signs last year that he might be ready to emerge. He was called up late in the year and posted some great skills including a 57% groundball rate and a 97 BPV (for explanation of BPV see bottom of this page). He already showed a high dominance and command profile in parts of three seasons in Triple-A. It’s also worth noting that Carrasco has faced current South Side hitters 32 times and all they have is five hits against him for a BA of .132. By contrast, Indian hitters have 34 hits in 115 AB’s against Edwin Jackson for a BA of .296. Jackson is also coming off a rough spring in which he allowed 29 hits and 12 ER in 17.1 frames for an ERA of 6.23. The White Sox pen got whacked yesterday, nearly blowing a 14-0 lead and that’s not a good way to start a season. Jackson is streaky, he always has been and he’s definitely worth keeping an eye on because of some very nice umbers upon his return to the AL last season. However, this is about investing in Carlos Carrasco, who undoubtedly is going to win more games for the Tribe this season than any of their other starters. Play: Cleveland +128 (Risking 2 units).