Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Mavs/Warriors OVER 212
Expect both teams to bounce back strong from poor offensive performances to take this one Over the number. The Over is 5-1 in the Mavericks' last 6 games following a SU loss, 13-5 in their last 18 road games and 20-8 in their last 28 games as a road favorite. The Over is also 7-1 in the Warriors' last 8 games as a home underdog and 5-1 in their last 6 home games in this series. We'll take the Over tonight.
Tom Freese
Oklahoma City vs. La Clippers
Play: Oklahoma City
The Clippers are 29-47 straight up this year. Los Angeles is 6-13 ATS their last 19 games as underdogs. The Clippers are 3-7 ATS their last 10 games vs. a team with a win percentage of over 60%. The Clippers are 0-5 ATS off a straight up loss. The Clippers are 1-8 ATS their last 9 games overall. Oklahoma City is 50-25 Straight up this year. The Thunder are 8-3 ATS their last 11 games. The Thunder 5-1 ATS their last 6 road games. The Thunder is 9-4 ATS on Saturday and they are 9-4-1 ATS their last 14 games as favorites.
Jack Jones
Chicago Bulls -14.5
The Chicago Bulls have taken their game to another level since getting in position to earn the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference. Chicago looks to extend its lead atop the conference Saturday night when it hosts last-place Toronto. With a victory, the Bulls (55-20) can pick up one-half game on Miami and Boston, which are both idle. They lead the second-place Heat by 2 1/2 games and the Celtics by three after beating Detroit 101-96 on Friday. Rose, who once again received chants of "M-V-P" throughout the game, scored a team-high 27 points and added seven assists. Rose is averaging 27.8 points and 9.8 assists over his last four games and has helped the Bulls win 14 of 16.
Chicago had won 14 in a row at home before a 97-85 loss to Philadelphia on Monday. Carlos Boozer, who scored 22 points Friday, had a season-high 34 points and 12 rebounds Dec. 15 in a 110-93 win at Toronto. The Raptors have dropped 12 of their last 16 overall and will be without starting point guard Jose Calderon tonight. Chicago is 32-5 at home this season, outscoring opponents by 10.5 PPG. Toronto is 6-31 on the road this year, getting outscored by 10.2 PPG. The Bulls are 23-6 ATS in their last 29 games following a ATS loss. Chicago is 18-7 ATS in their last 25 games overall. The Bulls are 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 home games. Take Chicago Saturday.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Minnesota Timberwolves +14
Minnesota has been poor on the road, but we can't ignore the numbers. The Timberwolves are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games as an underdog of 11.0 or more points. You might also like to know that Memphis is just 1-11 ATS in its last 12 home games as a favorite of 11.0 or more points. Minnesota played the Grizzlies to a 9-point game in the most recent meeting, and I expect a similar performance out of Kevin Love and company here. Take the points.
Sam Martin
Minnesota Twins at Toronto Blue Jays
Prediction: Minnesota Twins
Great spot to back the Twins behind Francisco Liriano here, especially after the embarrassing 10-run loss yesterday to the Blue Jays. The Twins will be in the hunt for the AL Central crown this season, and we look for a bounce-back performance with a huge pitching mismatch on their side here today. Jays starter Kyle Drabek is 0-3 in his career, and we don't expect much from him here today against one of the better teams in the league. 5* Play on Minnesota.
Lenny Del Genio
Minnesota Timberwolves at Memphis Grizzlies
Prediction: Memphis Grizzlies
The Grizzlies are 3-0 SU/ATS vs. Minnesota this season, winning by an average of 15.6 PPG. They are also 7-0 ATS the last seven times playing in the 2nd night of back to backs and are coming off a 93-81 win at New Orleans last night. The team is an incredible 12-2 ATS This season off a SU dog win + 27-9 ATS off a road game. Overall, they have cashed seven straight games. The Twolves have no answer here. Take Memphis.
Matt Rivers
Houston Astros (+225) at Philadelphia.
I never mind teams that are coming off of horrific losses and that is the case with the Houston Astros after blowing the 4-0 lead very late yesterday. Professionals just seem to bounce back a lot more than they don’t no matter the situation and at this quality take back why not back the visitors from Houston?
Of course Cliff Lee has the upside of any pitcher in the game today, save maybe Roy Halladay, and could twirl a gem against any team and that certainly includes the mediocre at the very best Astros. But there is something right now about Charlie Manual’s offense with Chase Utley out that I do not like. Ryan Howard and the boys did not look very good yesterday at all. They did win in the end thanks to a bunch of key singles but I do not believe this team is locked and loaded. We saw a bunch of ice cold hitting from the Phils last season as they struggled immensely at times. How they wound up winning 97 games or whatever truly was a miracle as they just weren’t that good a lot of the time.
Wandy Rodriguez gets the ball for the Astros and the lefty at times can be awesome. He was not that good in the first half of last season but this kid has high quality stuff and certainly can neutralize Howard, Raul Ibanez and whatever lefty is in the Philadelphia lineup.
If Lee is lights out and just too good then I will tip my cap. But Rodriguez can match him with some zeros of his own and after yesterday’s rough beat and at this big-time take back I am fine with Hunter Pence, Michael Bourn and the Astros today.
Scott Delaney
Milwaukee at PHILADELPHIA (-1)
For Saturday's complimentary play I'm taking the Sixers anywhere from a pick to laying a point and a half. The line will all depend on whether or not Andrew Bogut is in the lineup, but it won't matter, cause Philly is going to work Milwaukee pretty good tonight.
This is going to be a cheap price to pay for the Sixers as they remain in must-win mode to hold off the Knicks, while maintaining their sixth spot in the Eastern Conference standings. Sure, they've clinched a playoff berth, but they don't need any lapses right now, and certainly don't want to drop any lower.
Thus, Philly needs as many wins as it can get.
It comes in after a pair of offensive outbursts that resulted in home wins over Houston and New Jersey, by 11 and 25, respectively. The Sixers have now won three straight overall, as they also scored an impressive road win at Eastern Conference-leading Chicago, 97-85, to start the week. That's an average winning margin of 16 points during this streak.
Meanwhile, the Bucks will be playing their fourth game in six nights after playing three road games the past five. The Bucks lost a tough one last night in Indiana, 89-88, and could be drained emotionally and mentally, knowing their playoff hopes are just about dashed with seven games left, and sitting four games back of the Pacers now.
No doubt in my mind, physically, Milwaukee will be weary in playing its sixth game in nine days, five of them being on the road.
Lay this cheap price with the Sixers.
4♦ PHILADELPHIA
Stephen Nover
Dallas (-5) at GOLDEN STATE
The Mavericks had their five-game winning streak halted this past Thursday night in a rough 110-82 blowout road loss to the Lakers.
The Mavericks are trying to catch the Lakers for the second-best record in the Western Conference and will be taking this game very serious.
Despite the loss to the Lakers, the Mavericks still easily have the best road mark in the league at 27-11. They have covered 63 percent of their away matchups this season, including going 4-0 straight-up and ATS in their last four road contests.
The Mavericks are 3-0 versus the Warriors this season winning by a combined 39 points.
Golden State lacks the defense and big bodies to rebound and play solid defense against Dallas, ranking second-to-last in scoring defense allowing 106.3 points per game.
The Warriors have been particularly bad in their last 10 games defensively surrendering an average of 112.1 points per contest.
3♦ DALLAS
Derek Mancini
Oklahoma City at LA CLIPPERS (+4')
For tonight's Free Play, I'm focusing on the pro Hardwood and one match up in particular: Thunder at Clippers. A lot of bettors loving the Thunder here, and I can understand why, given the Clippers recent play SU and ATS. However, that being said, I expect a much closer game than the public is anticipating.
Why? Several reasons, but fatigue is main culprit. Both teams played last night, and while the Thunder's numbers without rest (9-5 ATS) are solid, I still like the younger, more athletic Clippers in this spot. LA is not only desperate for a win, but it seems like the only place they bring their "A" game is at Staples, where they're 21-18 SU and 19-20 ATS.
Next is the match ups. This is a different looking team than the last time these two played, when OKC blew out the Clippers by 23 points back in February. I see Griffin getting plenty of help from Williams and Gordon, who's playing great ball right now. Not only that, but with Perkins still underachieving, the Thunder are vulnerable in this spot.
Finally, did you know the Thunder are just 7-16 ATS in their L23 meetings with the Clippers?! That's a trend that's extremely tough to ignore, especially if the Thunder's defense fails to be sharp due to tired legs. Long story short, fade the public and take the Clippers plus the points here.
2♦ LA CLIPPERS
Bobby Maxwell
VCU (+2') vs. Butler, at Houston
For my comp selection, the first national semifinal is the battle of the mid-majors. VCU brings its incredible run into tonight against the repeat team in the semifinals from Butler. There is just something about the kids from VCU that make you think they can get it done. I’m going to grab the points with VCU tonight and ride this team right into the national title game.
The Rams use some dead-eye shooting and tough defense to get here, even going through their First Four game against USC. They were forced to play an extra game and it hasn’t slowed this team down.
VCU has hit a remarkable 44 percent from three-point land in the tourney and they’ve hit 12 three-pointers in three of their five wins. They have guys that aren’t afraid to take any shot in Brandon Rozzell and Bradford Burgess and their point guard controls the flow in Joey Rodriguez. They also pose a problem because their big star inside, Jamie Skeen, can get the job done inside or outside. He’ll hit a three-pointer or post up.
The Bulldogs have been the cardiac kids in this tourney, winning four games by an average of three points. The key is they’ve gotten everyone to play their style and letting this team execute in the half-court set is playing right into their hands. VCU will kick up the tempo and force Butler star Matt Howard to defend outside and that will spell foul trouble for him.
VCU is on ATS surges of 6-0 in non-conference action and 9-0 in the big dance, all as an underdog. I’m going to grab the points with the Rams, but won’t be surprised when they shoot lights-out and win it outright. Play VCU.
5♦ VCU
Craig Davis
VCU (+2') vs. Butler at Houston
Today's comp play is on the VCU Rams over Butler.
One Cinderella story has to come to an end today, right? I know, I know, I also wish that these two teams weren't meeting in the semi-final, but it is what it is. And as much as I respect the heck out of what Brad Stevens has done the past two years at Butler, I think his season comes to an end tonight.
Would I be surprised if the Bulldogs won this one? Absolutely not. But this VCU story is too incredible to stop here. For their "lack of top flight talent", this sure is one smart team. They have adapted to every single team they've played thus far and still came out on top.
Vegas has listed Butler as the small favorite here because of their "tournament experience," if you can call it that. Vegas is hoping that most players jump on Butler because of their last two runs through this tournament and the fact that they are 4-0 ATS so far in the Big Dance.
Not so fast.
VCU is 5-0 ATS and I believe their run through this tournament has been tougher than Butler's. Not only that, but they're shooting at an incredible rate right now, hitting 44 percent from two-point land and 43 percent from three-point range.
Not only that, but VCU is holding their opponents in this tournament to just 23 percent from beyond the arc and forcing a ton of turnovers. Shaka Smart has these guys changing up defensive looks nearly every time down the floor, which is wreaking havoc for their opponents. Just ask Kansas.
This should be a fun game, but in the end I see VCU moving into the title game Monday.
3♦ VCU
Karl Garrett
V.C.U. vs. BUTLER at Houston, TX
Now for your comp play this Saturday, and I will look for the VCU-Butler contest to hold under the posted total.
VCU is on a 9-4 under run their last 13 games when listed as the underdog, and that includes 3 of their 5 Big Dance games this March. The Rams are also on a 8-4 overall under run their last 12 games dating back to the regular season.
As for the Butler Bulldogs, 7 of their past 9 Big Dance games dating back to last year's improbable run have stayed low.
With some expected opening game jitters to be coming from both teams, and with both sides capable of locking you down on defense, I will look for this opening semifinal game to stay just a shade under the posted total.
Play the low in this VCU-Butler contest.
2♦ UNDER
Chuck O'Brien
Arizona (+145) at COLORADO
Saturday’s complimentary selection comes in baseball (and I’m on a 7-1 run with MLB free plays after Friday’s 3♦ winner on the Rangers), as I’ll take the DBacks as a road underdog at Colorado.
I’m a BIG fan of young Arizona right-hander Daniel Hudson, who was acquired in a trade with the White Sox last July and proceeded to go 7-1 with a 1.69 ERA in 11 starts with the DBacks, and all 11 were quality outings. In fact, he gave up more than two runs in just one of those 11 contests. And if you include three starts with Chicago before the trade, Hudson recorded 84 strikeouts against just 26 walks in 95 1/3 innings.
One of Hudson’s post-trade starts came against the Rockies, and Hudson dominated Colorado’s potent lineup, allowing just four hits and two walks while striking out nine in seven shutout innings. Unfortunately, he didn’t get any run support, and Arizona fell 1-0.
Admittedly, Colorado is sending a quality pitcher to the hill tonight in Jorge De La Rosa, who has a 2.21 ERA in 13 career appearances (nine starts) against the DBacks. But if yesterday’s offensive outburst against Colorado ace Ubaldo Jimenez is any indication, the DBacks appear to be much better offensively this season.
With yesterday’s loss to Arizona, the Rockies are now just 3-14 in their last 17 games (including nine straight losses) going back to September, and they’re 1-11 in their last 12 against right-handed starters. Well, tonight they’re facing a right-handed starter who was virtually unhittable over the final two months of last season, and I’m looking for that right-hander to pick up right where he left off last year and lead Arizona to a 2-0 start.
2♦ ARIZONA
hris Jordan
Detroit at N.Y. YANKEES (-1', +130)
So, about them Bronx Bombers...
After opening the season with a 6-3 win on Thursday, they had the night off.
Now it's back to business, and with A.J. Burnett up against Brad Penny, this one won't even be close.
I honestly can't imagine what Penny has left to offer the Tigers. Perhaps they were impressed with his early success in St. Louis last season, as he posted seven straight quality starts, but I don't know if he's ready to jump into the American League after missing the final four months of the season with a lat injury.
I like my chances in him getting pummeled today, while Burnett is going to prove he can rebound from a season in which he set career highs in losses, runs allowed, earned runs, ERA and hit batsmen.
Burnett is 3-1 in six career starts against the Tigers, so the confidence should be there.
I'm counting on him also having plenty of run support today.
Lay the run line.
1♦ N.Y. YANKEES -1.5
Joel Tyson
Boston (+115) at TEXAS
Free play winner now for Saturday is to side with John Lackey and the Boston Red Sox to bounce-back from yesterday afternoon's loss to the Texas Rangers.
All of the preseason talk was of the Rangers being a "one-hit wonder", and of the Red Sox being the team that will win the World Series. Texas must have listened, because they came out with a huge chip on their shoulder yesterday and dialed up the offense in a 9-5 win.
I will look for Boston to turn the tables tonight, as John Lackey looked sharp this spring, and he has had past success pitching at the Ballpark in Arlington.
Colby Lewis announced himself in the playoffs last year, but was pretty non-descript at 12-11 for the regular season.
Boston is the play tonight as the small underdog, as Tito's team gets the "W" in this meeting.
2♦ BOSTON
Tony Karpinski
Dallas Mavericks vs. Golden State Warriors
Play: Dallas Mavericks -5½
The Warriors have been putting a hurting on the scoreboard lately, lighting them up over the last several games. They can knock down the deep ball extremely well at 39% as a team on the season. The Warriors have 4 very legitimate scorers on the team in Monta Ellis, Steph Curry, David Lee, and Dorell Wright, all of whom can put up 20-25 on any night of the week. But their defense has also gotten worse, as they have opened up the court play.
The Mavs, who a very good road team, have done the opposite, they have tightened it up on defense recently, holding the Lakers to only 96 and the Suns to only 83 points. Also a very good deep ball shooting team led by “Jason Vorthrees”, Jason Kidd and Jason Terry. Last meeting, Dallas hammered them 101-73 behind Tyson Chandler’s monster 17 rebound night, including 5 offensive. I think the Warriors will keep in mind that game and get retribution at home. Golden St is very respectable at home and I like them tonight.
PREDICTION: Golden St Wins 108-104
Rob Vinciletti
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Play: Philadelphia 76ers -2
The Sixers play this one with 28 point loss revenge tonight. They are 13-3 straight up vs Teams with losing records in the second half, while the Bucks are just 3-10 straight up vs Winning teams in the second half. The Only thing that keeps this play from being unit rated is the Bucks fantastic record vs The Atlantic conference as they are 14-0 ats if they shot 45% or less and 22-2 ats if they scored 90 or less and then take on an Atlantic Conference team. The Sixers though are on a mission and are beating teams much better than the Bucks so we will make then the free Play tonight.
JR O'Donnell
Detroit Tigers +135
The Detroit Tigers and Brad Penny steal one here today... Jr O goes 3-0 on the diamond last night & today we will successfully stand in front of the "Vaunted Yankees" and Aj Burnett. The Tigers are a strong ball club and they will get to Aj.. The Battle of the 2004/2005 teammates as Aj/Penny were at Fla. We are super high on Tigers young stud Brennan Boesch who killed it in AAA. The Tigers got a nice effort out of JJ Velander last game, but the bull pen let them down. The Tigers get the sharp JR O call here. The Tigers go as the Big Guy goes... M Cabrera has tore up the Yanks hitting safely in 23/ 24 games against the Yankees. a sweet .365 (31-for-85) BAA with eight home runs and 20 RBIs.
Craig Trapp
Kentucky vs. Connecticut
Play: Connecticut +127
Oddsmakers have the wrong team favored. UCONN is the better and deeper team that has already beat them head to head. Walker is unguardable and in first matchup UK tried everyone on him and no one stopped him as he went for 29 pts. UK's lack of depth on the interior will also cost them as UCONN's bigs are quietly very good. This one is too good to pass up UCONN M/L.
Hollywood Sports
Minnesota Timberwolves at Memphis Grizzlies
Prediction: Minnesota Timberwolves
The Timberwolves (17-59) will be without Kevin Love, Darko Milic and Sebastian Telfair for this contest due to injuries (and a personal matter regarding Telfair). While shorthanded, the line has adjusted to this situation too much as Minnesota is now a 14-point underdog for this contest. That is too much wood to lay for a Memphis team that played the night before. The Grizzlies are red hot having now won six of their last seven games. But they have failed to cover the spread in 11 of their last 12 games at home as a favorite of at least eleven points. The T-Wolves, on the other hand, has covered 6 straight games on the road as an underdog of at least eleven points. Grab the points and take Minnesota tonight.