Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, April 23,2011

Marc Lawrence

Colorado Rockies at Florida Marlins
Prediction: Colorado Rockies

Javier Vazquez hopes to somehow find the plate when the Marlins take on the Rockies in Game Two of this weekend series at Sun Life Stadium Saturday night. Unfortunately for Vazquez the Rockies have plated five or more runs in 11 of their last 15 contests and bring the best record in the National League into tonight's fray. With Vazquez having issued 11 walks against only six strikeouts this season, look for his 7.43 ERA to take another hit here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Colorado.

Tom Freese

Oklahoma City Thunder at Denver Nuggets
Prediction: Oklahoma City Thunder

Returning home, down 0-2, we like the Nuggets to earn their first win of the series tonight. They are 11-2 ATS off a loss by 15 or more points and 12-2 ATS at home off a double digit road loss. They were 33-8 SU on their home floor during the regular season and this is a short number, so lay it. Take Denver.

VEGAS EXPERTS

New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles

After a fast start, the Orioles are really struggling right now and the last team they want to see come calling to Camden Yards is the division rival Yankees. New York took both games of a two game set earlier in the year & is now 28-10 vs. the AL East rivals the last three seasons. They will start ace CC Sabathia tonight, in search of his first win, and Baltimore simply isn't scoring right now against southpaws (2.0 runs/game). Lay the juice, it's worth it.

Play on: NY Yankees

Charlie Scott

Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets
Play: Oklahoma City Thunder +5

This line seems high to me and is due to the fact that the oddsmaker has already incorporated the zig-zag theory factor into the pointspread. OKC is up 2-0 in this series winning both of their Home games, and now the series goes to Denver. I like to bet the better team (OKC) to cover 1 of 2 games in Denver. A nice way to build up Player's bankrolls during the Playoffs is what I call Zag-Zig theory, Betting 1 unit on the beter team (OKC) to win or cover as a dog in game #3, if so we're done, if OKC loses by more than 5, we bet 2 Units on OKC Monday Night vs Denver.

Cajun Sports

Phillies vs. Padres
Play: Under 7

The Philadelphia Phillies and San Diego Padres square off for the third game of their four-game weekend set on Saturday night with the first pitch set for 8:35PM EST. Philadelphia averages 4.3 runs per game on the road with a batting average of .250 and an OBP of just .300. They are 2-5 Under their last seven games overall. Over their last ten games their batting average has fallen below .225 and that is key because it triggers a system that tells us to Play Under on MLB teams where the total is 7 to 8.5 with a team batting .225 or worse over their last ten games facing an opponent who is batting .240 or worse over their last fifteen games. These games have gone Under at a rate of 97-47 the last five seasons racking up over 43 units of profit in the process. San Diego is averaging a mere 2.6 runs per game when playing at home this season with a batting average of .207 and an OBP of .301. They have also averaged .225 or worse over their last ten contests and this qualifies the Padres in a system that tells us to Play Under on MLB teams with a total in this range batting .225 or worse over their last ten game facing a starter whose ERA is 7.00 or worse over his last three outings. Playing Under in this situation has produced a record of 52-15 Under including a perfect 3-0 Under already this season. Philadelphia is 31-16 Under versus an NL team with a team batting average of .250 or worse over the last 2 seasons and 46-25 Under versus teams averaging 0.75 or less homeruns per game over the last 3 seasons. The Phillies are 37-19 Under after batting .240 or worse over a 10 game span the last 2 seasons. San Diego is 13-3 Under versus an NL starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.550 to 1.650 the last 3 seasons. San Diego starter Tim Stauffer is 9-1 Under versus teams averaging 2.75 or less extra base hits per game over the last 2 seasons. Stauffer is 8-0 Under when the money line is +125 to -125 the last 2 seasons. Stauffer is 18-7 Under in all games the last 3 seasons and 15-4 Under when the total is 7 to 8.5 the last 3 seasons. San Diego is 17-4 Under when playing with a day off the last 2 seasons. With significant technical support for the Under we will play this one to fall below the posted total.

Jack Jones

Boston Red Sox +104

The Boston Red Sox are an underdog Saturday and I'll take full advantage. Rarely will you find this team as a dog all season, and at this price I can't pass them up. Daisuke Matsuzaka is 11-3 as a road underdog of +100 to +125 since 1997. Matsuzaka gave up just 2 base runners and no earned runs in 7 innings in his last start. Ervin Santana is 0-2 with a 5.26 ERA and 1.402 WHIP this season. This Red Sox line-up should have their way with Santana tonight.

The Red Sox are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. Boston is 21-8 in Matsuzaka's last 29 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. The Red Sox are 25-12 in Matsuzaka's last 37 road starts. The Angels are 9-20 in their last 29 vs. American League East opponents. The Red Sox are 11-1 in their last 12 meetings with the Angels, and the Red Sox are 5-0 in their last 5 meetings in Los Angeles. Take Boston Saturday.

Rob Vinciletti

Bulls vs. Pacers
Play: Over 187½

This game fits a a totals system that has cashed 17 of 22 time since 1990. What we want to do is play the Over for dogs of 3 or more that are down 3-0 in a series if the posted total is 179 or higher. These two teams both come off poor shooting performances both shooting under 40% in the Bulls 88-84 game 3 win. The Bulls in fact have shot less than 40% in back to back games for just the second time all season. In road games where they have shot 40% or less in a prior road game they have played over 7 of 8 times. The Pacers are averaging 217 points in home games off a home game where they shot 40% or less. Indiana has also played over 3 of the last 4 times at home when the posted total is 185 to 190. Look for this one to play over the total here today.

Jim Feist

Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres
Play: Philadelphia Phillies

A big difference in offense with these teams. The Phillies have power and speed, 10th in baseball in runs scored, 5th in batting average. This is a big park in San Diego, which will help starter Joe Blanton, who gives up hits but doesn't walk anyone, which is a huge edge in this park. Last place San Diego has a terrible offense, 29th in runs scored and a paltry .217 batting average. The Phillies have mauled Tim Stauffer, who has a 16.39 ERA giving up 32 base runners in 9 innings against them. Play the Phillies.

Black Widow

1* on Oakland A's -116

We'll side with the Oakland A's Saturday with a big edge on the mound. Trevor Cahill is 2-0 with a 2.49 ERA and 0.947 WHIP in four starts this season, picking up right where he left off last year. Jason Vargas is 0-1 with a 4.37 ERA this season, including 0-1 with a 5.62 ERA in three home starts. Cahill sports a 2.80 ERA in six lifetime starts versus Seattle. Take the A's on the Money Line.

Steve Merril

Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers
Play: Texas Rangers -1½

Texas' offense blew up in a big way on Friday night scoring 11 runs in an 11-6 victory over the Royals. They figure to do more of the same on Saturday night with Kyle Davies on the mound. The Kansas City starter is 1-1 with a 7.20 ERA this season. In two starts on the road, the righty has given up 10 runs and 16 hits in just 8.7 innings of work. Davies has yet to defeat the Rangers in seven career starts going 0-4 with a 6.38 ERA and a WHIP of 1.91. His last two starts in Arlington have been bad giving up 12 runs and 12 hits in 10 innings pitched. Michael Young (5-16), Ian Kinsler (6-14), Nelson Cruz (3-8), Andres Blanco (3-4) and Mike Napoli (2-7) hit Davies well. Kansas City's bullpen has been a mixed bag this year picking up five wins, but blowing three saves. The Rangers are averaging over 6 runs per game at home this season.

Alexi Ogando had a blip on the radar his last time out giving up 5 runs and six hits in 6.3 innings pitched at Yankee Stadium. Those were the first runs he gave up this season after shutting out the Tigers and Mariners over 13 innings. Not a single Royals’ hitter has seen Ogando which should help the Rangers’ starter. Kansas City isn't in good form offensively right now as they are hitting just around .245 in their last eight games while losing four of their last six games. Texas' bullpen has struggled at times this season, but they shouldn't be needed much tonight with Ogando on the mound.

EZWINNERS

Philadelphia Phillies -105

The Phillies starting pitcher Joe Blanton struggled in his first two starts this season, but pitched well in his last start against Milwaukee. Blanton picked up the no-decision, as he allowed just two earned runs on seven hits with one walk and four strikeouts in seven innings. I expect him to pitch well against the offensively challenged Padres lineup. San Diego sends Tim Stauffer to the mound for this start who is 0-1 with a 3.27 ERA this season and is coming off of a nice start against the struggling Cubs. I do expect the Phillies offense to get going in this game. Stauffer has one of the highest batting averages against for a starting pitcher in the major leagues at .314 and he relies on batters putting the ball into play as his walk to strikeout ration of 1.83 is one of the worst in the major leagues among starting pitchers. Play on Philadelphia.

Tom Stryker

Colorado Rockies @ Florida Marlins
PICK: Colorado Rockies

Colorado's bats were shockingly silent in Friday's loss at Florida. Rest assured, the Rockies will bring their sticks on Saturday night.

Right-hander Javier Vazquez gets the call for the Marlins this evening and he's struggled a touch on the mound. Against the Mets, Astros and Phillies, No. 23 was slapped around for 14 earned runs 19 hits in only 13.1 innings of work. That's bad enough for a 1-1 record and a woeful 7.42 ERA.

Colorado will counter with Greenville, South Carolina product Jason Hammel. With three starts against the Dodgers, Mets and Cubs in the bank, Hammel has pitched well allowing nine earned runs and 19 hits through 17.0 frames. That adds up to a 1-1 record and a respectable 4.76 ERA. As chalk with Jason on the bump, the Rockies have cashed nine of their last 11.

Technically speaking, this is a great spot for the visiting team. Colorado has nailed seven of its last 10 against a right-handed starter, six of its last seven on foreign soil and nine of their last 13 as a favorite. In comparison, Florida has dropped 37 of its last 54 as a pup inside the friendly confines of Sun Life Stadium.

Marlins hurler Vazquez has been a weak link in Florida's rotation. Matched up against a Rockies lineup that is hungry for hits after yesterday's dismal performance, Javier will struggle again. Take Colorado with listed pitcher Hammel.

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Colorado Rockies -108

Hammel has lost his 3 previous starts against Florida but I believe this is where he breaks through. The Rockies have won 6 of their last 7 on the road and are 4-1 in their last 5 following a loss. They are an impressive 15-3 in Hammel's last 18 starts during game 2 of a series, 9-2 in his last 11 starts as a favorite and 7-2 in his last 9 starts versus a team with a winning record. The Marlins have been a pleasant surprise so far but find themselves in a tough spot with Vazquez on the bump. He was absolutely lit up in his only home start and carries a 7.43 ERA an 2.251 WHIP into this one. Also, Florida has been a terrible investment in the home underdog role, winning just 17 times in its last 54 games in this situation. Take the Rockies.

SPORTS WAGERS

Cleveland +107 over MINNESOTA

Fausto Carmona gets a start in pitcher-friendly Target Field against the lowest scoring team in the AL, a team against which he owns a decent career line. Carmona is a groundball specialist. His rate this season is 61% and that might be the best mark in baseball. He also has 20 K’s and has issued just seven walks in 20 innings of work. Carmona is showing the skills he displayed in his 2007 career year and he’s just 27 years old. The Indians are 13-6 and have been crushing left-handed pitching (AL-best .885 OPS). They’ll see a southpaw here in Brian Duensing. Duensing posted a 2.62 ERA and 1.20 WHIP last year. A favorable 82% LOB% produced his ERA. His base skills were middling at best and while the Twins insist he’ll remain in the rotation, his skills do not warrant such confidence. This season his strand rate is still high at 76% and once that normalizes his ERA will head south in a hurry. The banged-up Twins have yet to have a three-game winning streak. They haven’t yet put together any semblance of the type of offense and pitching that last year led them to a 53-28 (.654) record at home. They’ll be hard-pressed to score against Carmona and will come into this game with the inferior team and starter. Play: Cleveland +107 (Risking 2 units).

Chicago –106 over DETROIT

The oddsmakers have pretty much made this a pick’em game, suggesting that Brad Penny vs Edwin Jackson is a toss-up and that is somewhat ludicrous. After a 2010 lost to a strained lat, Penny is trying to shake the injury-prone tag. He also missed a big portion of 2008 due to a shoulder problem and his numbers in the past five years have been inconsistent. In his nine-start stint in 2010, Penny actually experienced a bit of a skills reprieve--but it was short-lived. In general, he continues to carry a high risk factor outside of health concerns. At this point in his career, Penny has been reduced to waiver-wire fodder until proven otherwise. Penny was also under the tutelage of Dave Duncan (2010, STL) and his legendary survival course for veteran pitchers. Now he’s on his own and in four starts he’s walked 12, struck out 13, has an ERA of 8.44 and a WHIP of 1.69. Meanwhile, Jackson’s return to the AL Central went better than anyone could have predicted. Credit CHW pitching coach Don Cooper. Jackson threw twice as many changeups and cut fastballs last season than he did the year before while maintaining mid-90s velocity on his fastball. This approach in the 2H not only resulted in elite base skills but also a strong GB/FB tilt (51%/30%). In 25 frames this season, Jackson comes in with an ERA of 3.51 and a xERA of 3.38. He’s struck out 27 batters and it’s not like he’s facing an elite offense. The Tigers have been held to three runs or less in half of their 20 games and they may have to triple that output here to bail out Penny. Play: Chicago –106 (Risking 2.12 units to win 2).

TEXAS –1½ +101 over Kansas City

Kyle Davies and his below average stuff has logged nearly 500 IP over last three years, which is a testament to just how bad the Royals starting pitching has been over the past few years. Davies is a disaster waiting to happen and there should be no waiting at this venue. Davies has allowed 30 hits in 20 IP and comes in with a BAA of .361, an ERA of 7.36 and a WHIP of 1.90. His groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate is 32%/26%/42% and those numbers are nothing short of alarming. Davies remains one of the most hittable and ineffective starters in the majors and nothing suggests a turnaround. Alexi Ogando went 4-1 with a 1.30 ERA in 42 innings last year as a reliever. He's a converted outfielder that came up in mid- June and pummeled hitters. He’s carried that over to this year. In his first two starts he went a combined 13 full innings and did not allow a single run before pitching in New York against the Yanks. He comes into this game with a 2.33 ERA and a 0.72 WHIP. One can’t expect him to sustain that pace but he won’t need to here. This one is all about playing against Kyle Davies. Make no mistake, Davies has less than a 5% chance of success here, as he’s that bad. Play: Texas –1½ +101 (Risking 2 units).

*In skills, we look at a pitchers control (bb/9), dominance (k/9), command (k/bb), opposition on base avg (OOB), groundball/line-drive/fly ratios (G/L/F) and expected ERA (xERA).