SPORTS ADVISORS
NBA PLAYOFFS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Orlando (2-0 SU, 1-1 ATS) at Charlotte (0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS)
The Magic try to extend their winning streak to nine and go up 3-0 on the Bobcats when they visit Charlotte Bobcats Arena for Game 3 of this best-of-7 Eastern Conference first-round series.
Orlando got Game 1 on Sunday 98-89, but came up just short as a 10-point home favorite, then the Magic crushed the Bobcats 92-77 in Game 2, easily cashing as a nine-point chalk and improving to 7-1 ATS during their eight-game winning streak. Orlando had all five starters score in double digits, led by Vince Carter’s 19 points. Defensively, they held the Bobcats to 43.9 percent shooting and allowed just three players to reach double figures in points.
The Magic are 25-16 on the highway this season (22-18-1 ATS) and have won eight of their last 10 on the road (7-3 ATS) The Bobcats are 31-10 at home (23-18 ATS) this season but they are a stellar 11-2 in the last 13, including 9-4 ATS. Charlotte did drop its regular-season finale at home, losing 98-89 to the Bulls as a 1½-point underdog, but it was a meaningless game to the Bobcats, but one with playoff implications for the Bulls.
This is the first trip to the postseason for this Charlotte franchise in its sixth season in existence. Meanwhile, the Magic are in the playoffs for the fourth consecutive year. Last spring, they eliminated the Sixers 4-2 (2-4 ATS) in the opening round, then went on to take down the defending-champion Celtics in the conference semifinals (4-3 SU and ATS) and beat the top-seeded Cavaliers (4-2, 5-1 ATS) to reach the NBA Finals for just the second time in franchise history. However, the dream ended in five games against the Lakers (1-4 ATS).
Orlando has beaten the Bobcats nine of the last 10. The Magic are 5-3 ATS in the last eight meetings, but the road team is 5-1 ATS in the past six series clashes.
Orlando is just 1-4 ATS in its last five as a playoff favorite, but it is on positive pointspread surges of 7-1 overall, 6-2 on the road, 48-23-1 on Saturday, 20-7 against the Eastern Conference, 19-6-1 as a favorite, 6-0 as a road favorite and 4-0 after getting two days off. Charlotte is just 2-5 in its last seven overall, 1-4-1 ATS in its last six as a ‘dog and 1-4-1 ATS in its last six on Saturday, but it is on positive ATS streaks of 7-1-1 against the Southeast Division, 6-2-1 after a straight-up loss, 7-3 after a spread-cover and 11-5 at home against teams with winning road records.
The Magic have topped the total in seven of 10 on Saturday and five of seven after a spread-cover, but they are on “under” runs of 28-13-2 as a favorite, 10-4-1 against Southeast Division teams, 8-3 after getting two days off and 3-0-1 as a playoff favorite. The Bobcats are on “over” streaks of 7-3 at home, 3-1-1 after a non-cover and 5-2 at home against teams with winning road records, but they are also on “under” streaks of 13-6-1 against the Eastern Conference, 11-3-1 against teams with winning records and 10-1-1 as an underdog.
In this series, the under has cashed in 10 of the last 14 meetings, including five of six in Charlotte, and Wednesday’s Game 2 easily stayed low.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Atlanta (2-0 SU and ATS) at Milwaukee (0-2 SU and ATS)
The Bucks return home to the Bradley Center in a must-win situation for Game 3 of this best-of-7 opening round series against the Hawks, who have won six in a row dating to the regular season.
Atlanta posted a pair of 10-point victories in Games 1 and 2, taking the opener 102-92 as an 8½-point favorite last Saturday, followed by Tuesday’s 96-86 victory as a 7½-point chalk. Joe Johnson (27 points, 6 assists), Josh Smith (21 points, 14 rebounds) and Al Horford (20 points, 10 rebounds) carried the weight in Game 2 for the Hawks, who have cashed in five straight during their current six-game win streak.
John Salmons (21 points) was the only player to crack 20 points for Milwaukee on Tuesday, which hit just 37 of 90 shots (41.1 percent) and was 8 of 14 from the free-throw line (57.1 percent), while Atlanta got to the charity stripe 20 times and made 17 (85 percent). The only edge for the Bucks came on the glass, as they outrebounded the Hawks 47-40. Both teams struggled from long distance, with Milwaukee a meager 4-for-24 on 3-pointers (16.7 percent) and Atlanta 3-for-11 (27.3 percent).
Atlanta improved to 36-7 SU at home this year with the two wins in this series, but on the road, the Hawks went just 19-22 SU (23-18 ATS) in regular-season play, averaging 98.8 ppg on 46.4 percent shooting, while allowing just a tick less at 98.0 ppg (46.5 percent). Milwaukee was 28-13 SU (24-16-1 ATS) at the Bradley Center, averaging 99.9 ppg on 43.9 percent shooting and giving up 96.6 ppg on 45.6 percent shooting. However, The Bucks lost their final two regular-season home games SU and ATS – to Boston and Atlanta, respectively – following a 12-2 SU and 9-4-1 ATS run at home.
Atlanta is 5-1 SU and ATS in the last six meetings with Milwaukee, cashing in the last four in a row (3-1 SU). The chalk is on an 11-3-1 ATS tear in this rivalry, and the SU winner is 13-3-1 ATS in the last 17 meetings. Also, in Atlanta’s last 20 playoff contests, the SU winner is a torrid 19-0-1 ATS.
Along with their current 5-0 ATS run, the Hawks are on pointspread sprees of 9-1 against the Central Division, 9-1 against winning teams, 12-2 following a SU win, 6-1 after a spread-cover and 5-1 in first-round playoff games. However, Atlanta is also in ATS ruts of 0-4-1 as a playoff pup and 5-12 as a road ‘dog of up less than five points.
The Bucks are on a 1-8-1 ATS freefall in first-round playoff games (0-4 last four) and are 1-5 ATS in their last six against Southeast Division foes. Still, they led the NBA at the betting window in the regular season (52-28-2 ATS) and remain on positive pointspread streaks of 34-15-2 overall, 9-2 after a road trip of seven or more days, 8-2 on Saturday, 20-8 after a SU loss and 20-8-2 laying points (4-1 as a home chalk).
Tuesday’s game went stayed the posted price of 188, snapping a nine-game “over” surge in this rivalry. Still, the total has gone high in the last four Milwaukee clashes between these two. Atlanta is on “over” runs of 15-4 after a SU win, 6-1 against winning teams, 6-1 as a pup (all on the road) and 5-1 after three or more days off, but the under is 6-2 in the Hawks’ last eight against the Central Division and 7-1 in their last eight as a playoff pup.
Milwaukee is on “over” streaks of 5-2 overall, 8-1 against winning teams, 13-4-2 in first-round playoff games (5-1 last six), 5-0-1 at home, 8-1 against winning teams and 37-15-1 after three or more days off. On the flip side, the under is 10-4 in the Bucks’ last 14 against the Southeast Division.
ATS ADVANTAGE: OVER
WESTERN CONFERENCE
L.A. Lakers (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) at Oklahoma City (1-2 SU, 2-1 ATS)
The eighth-seeded Thunder will try to even this best-of-7 Western Conference opening-round series when they take on the Lakers inside the Ford Center for Game 4.
The Thunder used a 58-46 second half to get the Game 3 victory, winning 101-96 as a 3½-point favorite in the city’s first NBA playoff game. Oklahoma City got 29 points and 19 rebounds from regular-season scoring champ Kevin Durant, and 27 points and eight rebounds from point guard Russell Westbrook. The Thunder outrebounded the Lakers 53-39, just two days after getting drilled on the boards in Game 2 in Los Angeles, 49-37. Also, Oklahoma City outscored L.A. 27-10 at the foul line.
The Lakers are 23-19 (17-24-1 ATS) on the road this season, but they’ve dropped five of six (SU and ATS) overall on the highway. Inside the Ford Center, the Thunder are now 28-14 (23-19 ATS), including an ongoing 12-3 SU run (9-6 ATS).
This is the Thunder’s first playoff series since 2005 when the franchise was the Seattle SuperSonics and they reached the Western Conference semifinals, losing to the Spurs 4-2 (3-3 ATS), after beating Sacramento 4-1 (3-2 ATS) in the opening round. The Lakers’ march to the title last season included a 4-1 (2-3 ATS) series win over the Jazz, 4-3 (SU and ATS) over the Rockets, 4-2 (3-3 ATS) over the Nuggets and then 4-1 (SU and ATS) over the Magic in the NBA Finals. L.A. has reached the postseason five straight times and 15 times in the last 16 years.
The Lakers have still won 14 of the last 16 (6-10 ATS) in this rivalry. However, the Thunder have cashed in five of the seven meetings this season, including all three games played inside the Ford Center.
Los Angeles is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a playoff underdog, but it is on several ATS skids, including 1-5 on the road, 2-8 as a road ‘dog of less than five points, 3-13-1 after one day off and 1-5 against Western Conference rivals. Oklahoma City is 1-4 ATS in its last five after a spread cover, but it is on positive pointspread runs of 6-1 after one day off, 13-3 as a favorite of up less than five points, 20-9 against winning teams and 4-1 on Saturday.
The Lakers are on a plethora of “under” streaks, including 7-3 overall, 18-7 against the Western Conference, 11-3 as an underdog, 23-7 against Northwest Division foes and 11-3 as road ‘dogs. The Thunder have topped the total in 10 of 15 as a favorite and 12 of 17 after a spread-cover, but they are on “under” runs of 4-2 as a favorite and 18-8-1 at home against teams with winning records.
In this series, the under has been the play in four of the last six in Oklahoma City, four of the last six overall and two of the first three games in this series, with Game 3 hurdling the 192-point total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: UNDER
Phoenix (2-1 SU and ATS) at Portland (1-2 SU and ATS)
The Suns look to take a commanding 3-1 advantage in this best-of-7 Western Conference first-round series when they meet the Trail Blazers for Game 4 inside the Rose Garden.
After a stunning defeat in Game 1 in Phoenix, the Suns have throttled the Blazers in the last two contests, winning 119-90 on Tuesday as an 8½-point home favorite and then rolling to a 108-89 road win in Game 3 on Thursday, cashing as a 1½-point underdog. Phoenix shot 52.9 percent from the floor Thursday and got 42 points from Jason Richardson on 13-for 19 shooting. Amare Stoudemire chipped in 20 points and Steve Nash added 13 points and 10 assists, as the Suns opened with a 34-16 first quarter and never looked back.
Phoenix is 23-19 (24-18 ATS) away from home this season and has won eight of its last 10 on the road (6-4 ATS). The Blazers are 26-16 in the Pacific Northwest (19-22-1 ATS) and they’ve still won seven of their last 10 at home (5-5 ATS).
Phoenix is back in the postseason after missing out last year, and this is the Suns’ 19th postseason appearances in the last 22 years. Portland ended a six-year playoff drought last year, but went one-and-done, falling 4-2 to the Rockets (3-3 ATS) in the opening round.
The season series is now tied 3-3 (3-2-1 ATS for Portland), but the road team has won three of the last five meetings, including two of three (SU and ATS) in this series. The chalk has cashed in 19 of the last 29 battles between these two, and the home team is riding a 6-3-1 ATS streak in the last 10.
Phoenix is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine as a playoff favorite of up less than five points and 0-6 ATS in its last six on Saturday, but it is on ATS surges of 27-10-1 overall, 13-5 on the road, 36-17-1 after a day off, 14-5-1 after a spread-cover and 11-3 on the road against teams with a winning home record. Portland is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight at home against teams with winning road records, but it is on positive pointspread streaks of 4-1 after a straight-up loss, 31-4 as a home underdog and 22-10 as a home pup of less than five points.
The Suns have topped the total in four of five as a chalk and 7-3 in playoff first-round games, but they are on “under” runs of 7-2-1 as a road underdog, 4-0-1 on the road and 9-3-1 on Saturday. The Blazers have gone over the total in four of five overall and four of five against the Western Conference, but they are on “under” streaks of 12-5 at home, 5-1 after a straight-up loss and 8-1 at home against teams with a winning road record.
In this rivalry, the over is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings in Portland, 5-3 in the last eight overall and 2-1 in this playoff series, with Game 3 coming up just short of the 204-point total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: PHOENIX
NATIONAL LEAGUE
St. Louis (10-6) at San Francisco (9-7)
Adam Wainwright (3-0, 1.50 ERA) goes after his fourth victory on the young season when he leads the Cardinals against Barry Zito (2-0, 1.86) and the Giants in the middle game of a weekend series at AT&T Park.
Behind yet another dominating pitching effort from ace Tim Lincecum, San Francisco rolled to a 4-1 victory Friday, snapping a four-game losing skid. The Giants offense, which was averaging 6.2 runs through the first 11 games of 2010, has generated a combined nine runs during their 1-4 slump. Bruce Bochy’s squad has also dropped five of six on Saturday, but it is on positive streaks of 9-2 at home, 7-1 against the N.L. Central and 10-4 versus right-handed starters
The Cardinals had arrived in the Bay Area on a 3-1 roll, tallying 25 runs in the process. However, St. Louis has now lost six of eight to N.L. West foes, five of seven against left-handed starters and four straight on the road versus southpaws.
The Giants barely won the season series from St. Louis last year, taking four of seven meetings, and San Francisco is 7-3 in the last 10 clashes (3-1 in the last four at AT&T Park).
Wainwright is coming off his first complete game of the season, knocking off the Mets 5-3 at home on Sunday. The veteran right-hander allowed three runs (two earned) on four hits and two walks while striking out nine. Going back to early September, Wainwright has delivered nine straight quality starts – at least six innings pitched and three earned runs or fewer allowed – and he’s surrendered two earned runs or less in eight of those nine contests. During this stretch, Wainwright has amassed 72 strikeouts against just 13 walks in 67 innings.
With Wainwright on the mound, the hill, the Cardinals are on incredible runs of 40-16 overall, 21-6 on the road, 25-5 against winning teams and 9-3 on Saturday. In his only road outing this season, he pitched St. Louis to a 6-3 win at Cincinnati, allowing two runs on three hits in seven innings, and he’s now allowed five earned runs in his last four road starts covering 30 innings (1.50 ERA). Also, Wainwright is 1-2 with a 3.71 ERA in five lifetime appearances (three starts) against the Giants, but the one victory came at home last July when he scattered six hits and three walks while striking out 12 in a 2-1 triumph.
Zito pitched a gem on Sunday in Los Angeles, holding the Dodgers to a run on four hits in 7 1/3 innings, and though he departed with a 1-0 lead, the bullpen immediately squandered it, surrendering a two-run homer to pinch-hitter Manny Ramirez, and the Giants fell, 2-1. All three of Zito’s starts have been quality efforts this season, including a 9-3 win over the Pirates in his only home outing (three runs allowed in six innings).
San Francisco has won five of Zito’s last seven starts overall, six of his last eight at home and 14 of 17 when he pitches in the second game of a series, but the Giants are 7-19 in Zito’s last 26 against the N.L. Central. That includes four losses to the Cardinals, against whom Zito is 0-4 with a 5.56 ERA in five starts (four with San Francisco, one with Oakland). The Cardinals are batting a robust .339 all-time against the Las Vegas native.
The Cardinals remain on “under” runs of 10-4 overall, 4-1 against left-handed starters and 3-0-1 on Saturday. However, with Wainwright pitching, the over is on surges of 5-2 overall, 13-6-2 on the road and 8-3-1 on Saturday.
The Giants also carry “under” trends of 5-0 overall, 19-7-3 versus the N.L. Central, 6-1-1 when Zito faces N.L. Central opponents and 3-0-1 when Zito works on Saturday. However, San Francisco is also on “over” runs of 5-2-1 at home and 7-3-2 against right-handed starters.
Finally, nine of the last 14 battles between these teams, including five of the last seven in San Francisco, have jumped over the posted total.
ATS ADVANTAGE: SAN FRANCISCO and OVER
Marc Lawrence
Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee Brewers
Prediction: Chicago Cubs
The Cubs send veteran Ted Lilly to the mound in Milwaukee against Doug Davis and the Brewers as Chicago looks to improve on its winning ways in this park. Lilly has cashed each of his last three starts in this series with a 2.87 ERA. Meanwhile, Davis enters at 2-1 in his starting efforts this campaign despite the fact he's posted an 11.25 ERA. Look for Chicago to improve to 12-6 in its last 18 games on this field here tonight.
Charlie Scott
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Oklahoma City Thunder
Play: Los Angeles Lakers +2
All the NBA playoff handicapping systems apply tonight, such as lost last or zig zag. However the most important factor I believe is that by playing on the Dog Lakers, we're getting one of the best teams in the NBA focused after Thursday nights loss getting points. I have to feel when the Lakers went on this road trip they would have settled for one win out of the 2 road games, Lakers WIN tonight ! Play early as I feel this line will move !
Rob Vinciletti
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: Toronto Blue Jays
The Jays are off a nice big dog win last night in Tampa. Tonight we will look for them to do it again. They have superb lefty Romero on the mound tonight and he has a solid 1.57 era so far this season. He has allowed just 4 runs and 11 hits in 23 innings of work. Tampa counters with J.Nieman tonight and he has a 4.87 career era vs Toronto. In the battle of the bullpens the Jays have a huge edge as they have a 1.88 road era compared to the Rays 7.78 home mark. Toronto is 3-1 as a road dog in this range and 7-1 when the posted total is 8 to 8.5. With Tampa hitting just .214 vs Lefthanders this year we will back the Jays here tonight.
DAVID CHAN
Seattle Mariners @ Chicago White Sox
PICK: Seattle Mariners
Sure, I understand. Doug Fister’s numbers (2-1, ERA 1.42, WHIP 0.84) aren’t going to hold up all year. When the season started, he was the most likely guy to get bumped from the rotation when Cliff Lee returned. But at least he’s doing something this year, and the Mariners are finding a way to win games.
The White Sox are finding ways to lose games: 5-11 headed into Friday night. Chicago starter Freddy Garcia has never really recovered from ’07 shoulder surgery. It’s great that his old club is giving him a shot here, but he’s not major-league ready. In two starts this year he was drilled by the Jays and edged by the Twins. The headline stats against the Twins are good (7 IP, 2 ER) but he coughed up a tater and issued five walks. In ten innings total this season he’s fanned seven while walking eight—a bad ratio.
The Mariners’ offense isn’t really clicking, but Seattle should be -130 or so in this one. Best of luck in all your bets, DC.
BIG AL
Florida Marlins @ Colorado Rockies
PICK: Florida Marlins
Perhaps Ricky Nolasco's slow start will be over much quicker than it was in 2009. Last season the righthanded ace of the Marlins rotation got off to such a bad start in April and May that he was sent to the minors at the end of that stretch to try and work things out. Nolasco came back up to the big leagues in early June and for the most part he pitched lights-out from that point forward. This season, Nolasco may have kicked his slow start after only his third start. Nolasco's first two outings were below average, especially for a guy as talented as he is who completely tore up the grapefruit league in spring training. But in his third and latest start, Nolasco went into one of the most dangerous places in baseball - Citizen's Bank Park - and almost threw a complete game shutout. He held the powerful Phillies lineup in check until the final out when Nolasco let a pitch get away and Jason Werth hit a two-run homer. Nolasco of course got the final out minutes later and although he would have loved to shut out the defending champs, a complete game, five-hitter is not too shabby. Coors field may be one of the most dreaded parks for most Major League pitchers, but Nolasco seems to like it there very much. In two career starts there, Nolasco is 2-0 with a 1.93 ERA and 12 strikeouts with just two walks in 14 innings. Take the Marlins.
LEE KOSTROSKI
Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals
PICK: Kansas City Royals
Nick Blackburn was about as consistent as it gets in 2008 and 2009, featuring identical 11-11 records and nearly identical season ERA numbers. Blackburn was very sharp early last season, even garnering some attention as an all-star candidate before fading for a few months and then delivering a strong September in the playoff push for the Twins. So far in 2010, Blackburn has looked like the struggling mid-season pitcher, laboring through three unproductive starts. Blackburn has allowed 23 hits and six home runs in his three outings and he has walked six batters while striking out just seven. Walking two batters per game seems like a normal figure but Blackburn walked just 41 batters in over 205 innings last year. Blackburn has clearly been off in the early going and he again faces a Royals lineup that hit him hard last week.
The Royals are 3-0 behind Luke Hochevar this season and it has been no fluke. Hochevar was a highly regarded prospect for years and he appears to finally be living up to his vast potential. After posting terrible numbers in 2008 and 2009 thrown in as a starter with lousy support, Hochevar appears to have gained from the experience, allowing just six earned runs in three starts so far this season. Hochevar has allowed just 17 hits in three games and he has allowed just one home run. Hochevar beat the Twins on the road last week, limiting a red hot offense to just two earned runs over six innings. The Kansas City bullpen has struggled but Hochevar has been able to go deep into his starts this season.
Minnesota has won every series so far this season but there have been no sweeps as the Twins seem to put a bad game together every so often. Minnesota started the year as a red hot offensive team but the Twins have cooled off considerably over the last six games and the team average has fallen to .264. In road games this season the Twins have hit just .208 against right-handed pitching and keep in mind four of the eight road games played by the Twins took place in a high scoring park in Anaheim.
The Royals are a losing team in the early going but this is a team that has delivered a huge improvement on offense. The early season pitching has not been as sharp for the Royals compared with last season but Kansas City is hitting .296 as a team. Kansas City has scored at least three runs in all but one game this season and the Royals should have some confidence in this series after holding their own on a very difficult nine-game road trip and also having success against Blackburn the last time out. Blackburn was pushed back a day in his start with an elbow issue and he clearly is not in top form at the moment with a rough early start, creating an opportunity to go against him with underdog value.
STEVE MERRIL
Tigers @ Rangers
PICK: Tigers (RL)
Detroit tries to begin a new winning streak in Arlington on Saturday night as they take on the Rangers. Texas provided Dontrelle Willis with his first Tigers victory in his short career with the team last May when Willis went 6.3 innings giving up just one hit while striking out 5 and walking two against the Rangers. In 2008, Willis gave up just three runs and two hits in five innings to the Rangers in a no decision.
Willis has been solid so far this season going 0-1 with a 4.24 ERA in three starts. He took the loss in his last start, but he gave up only four hits and two runs in six innings of work against the Angels. Josh Hamilton (0-3), Nelson Cruz (0-3), Elvis Andrus (0-3), David Murphy (0-2), Chris Davis (0-2) and Taylor Teagarden (0-2) are all looking for their first hits off the lefty. Texas, as a team, is just 1-5 against left-handed starters scoring only 2.7 runs per game while hitting .186 against them. Over their last eight games, Texas is hitting below .200 as a team.
Texas’ Scott Feldman had his start pushed back one day as he's dealing with a stomach virus. Feldman is 1-1 with a 4.41 ERA and is coming off a short outing in New York against the Yankees. Feldman is 0-1 with a 9.72 ERA in two starts against Detroit including a horrible outing in July where he gave up six runs and 10 hits in 2.3 innings of work. Adam Everett (3-8), Carlos Guillen (3-6), Miguel Cabrera (2-5) and Ryan Raburn (1-3) have had good numbers against the righty.
BEN BURNS
Dodgers @ Nationals
PICK: Under 9.5
Yesterday's series opener stayed below the total with the Nationals earning a 5-1 victory. The projected starters for this afternoon's game are Clayton Kershaw for LA and Craig Stammen for Washington. Both were very good to me in their last game.
I played on the Dodgers in Kershaw's last start and the LA ace delivered a gem, allowing one run through seven complete innings. He gave up just four hits while striking out nine. He didn't get the victory but the Dodgers still won, defeating the Giants by a 2-1 score.
In case anyone thought his performance vs. the Giants was a fluke, let's not forget that Kershaw had a 2.79 ERA last season and that he allowed a mere 6.3 hits per nine innings. That was the best mark in all of baseball! He also had more K's than inning pitched last season and that's been the case through this season's first three starts, as well. Clearly, he's got "great stuff."
Stammen was also good to me in his last start, as he helped me cashed my ticket on the Nationals and Rockies to finish below the total. Stammen had struggled in his first two starts. However, as I noted on Monday, those starts were both against Philadelphia, currently the highest-scoring team in the league. Facing a slightly less potent offense, Stammen bounced back in a big way. Indeed, he went eight very strong innings and gave up just five hits and two runs. He only walked one batter and had five K's. He earned the "W," with the Nationals winning by a score of 5-2.
That great outing should give Stammen some much-needed confidence. He should also benefit from the fact this is his first appearance vs. the Dodgers, so the LA hitters aren't familiar with him.
Note that Kershaw allowed just one run (in five innings) in his lone 2009 start vs. the Nationals. With 10 of Kershaw's last 13 starts staying below the total and with both pitchers coming off such a well-pitched game, take a look at the UNDER.
Jim Feist
Cubs vs. Brewers
Play: Over 9
Reason: Milwaukee has been an over team, on a 6-3-1 run over the total, putting up 8 or more runs in 6 of those 10 games, even hanging 20 on the Pirates. Milwaukee is an easy home run park, too. The Brewers outscored the Pirates 36-1 in a three-game series! The Cubs come to town with a pitcher who has been rehabbing in veteran Ted Lilly. His ERA is 4.43 against the Brewers. Milwaukee goes with soft throwing Doug Davis, who has frightening numbers with an 11.25 ERA, allowing 24 hits and 30 base runners in 12 innings. The Cubs have already faced him, blasting 6 runs off him in 3 innings. Play the Cubs/Brewers over the total.
Nelly
Toronto + over Tampa Bay
Few pitchers have been better than Ricky Romero so far in 2010. Romero has allowed just four runs and eleven hits over 23 innings of work. His walks have been under control and he has allowed just one home run while striking out 22. Romero has been a big reason why the Jays have enjoyed a solid start to the year and he has also contributed to Toronto’s strong bullpen showing early in the year by going deep into games and allowing for rest on days when he starts. Tampa Bay has been a red hot team but the Rays are hitting just .209 against left-handed pitching. Tampa Bay has not been a strong hitting team so far this season despite the ability to score runs in the early going. Tampa Bay's great early season record has been built on feasting on struggling teams as well, playing Baltimore six times while also catching Chicago and Boston while those teams are not playing well. Against the Yankees, the Rays went 1-2, the only winning team they have faced at this point. Jeff Niemann is a solid groundball pitcher but all indications are that a set-back year could be in order this season after a great rookie year. His early numbers are strong but somewhat phony as he has allowed a great deal of hits and his control has not been overly sharp. The Rays have also survived despite a shaky bullpen so far this season, featuring a 4.50 ERA for the year including a 7.78 mark at home. Toronto's lineup received a boost with Aaron Hill back in action and the Blue Jays have been a consistently productive team on offense. The edge on the mound should be significant for Toronto in this match-up and the Rays will be greatly overvalued after this hot start.
James Patrick Sports
Indians vs. A's 4:05
Fausto Carmona will be in our opinion the most improved hurler in the American League this season. The Tribe is (4-1) in Carmona's past (5) starts and the big right-hander has gone at least (6) innings in all (3) starts to date this season. Big Game James Patrick's Major League Baseball selection in Saturday action is Cleveland Indians.
Bobby Maxwell
L.A. Lakers (+1') at OKLAHOMA CITY
FREE winner Friday night with the Jazz as they pounded the Nuggets in Game 3 of their series. The win improved my comp play record to 84-63-3. Tonight I have another NBA playoff freebie for you as I go with the Lakers to get the win in Oklahoma City against the Thunder.
When this series was announced, you ask just about any expert out there and they were saying that the Lakers would win this thing in five games. Well, just because the Thunder won Game 3 at home on Thursday, things haven’t changed. The Lakers are still on pace to win it in five games and with a big win here tonight, they are on their way.
Los Angeles got outrebounded and outhustled on Thursday, not completely shocking considering the way the Lakers have been playing lately. Oklahoma City got 29 points from Kevin Durant and 27 points from Russell Westbrook and outrebounded the Lakers 53-39. The Lakers have been getting very little production from either Ron Artest or Derek Fisher and they need another outside shooter to step up and free things up inside for Pau Gasol and Andrew Bynum.
Kobe Bryant hasn’t been his usual self in this series yet either. He hasn’t gotten that look in his eye that tells the world that he isn’t going to lose. But you’ll see it tonight. He’s not letting the Lakers go back to Los Angeles tied 2-2.
The Lakers have won 14 of the last 16 meetings with Oklahoma City and they are 4-1 ATS in their last five as a playoff underdog. The Thunder are just 1-4 ATS in their last five after a spread-cover and they were lucky to cover the number in Thursday’s 101-96 win as 3 ½-point favorites.
Remember, the Lakers are the defending champs and what you’ll see tonight from them is a lockdown defensive effort as they try to manhandle the younger Thunder. Play Los Angeles tonight as the Lakers go up 3-1.
3♦ L.A. LAKERS
Chuck O'Brien
Atlanta at N.Y. METS (+125)
Saturday’s complimentary selection comes from baseball, and I’ll take the surging Mets as a home underdog against Atlanta.
The Mets lost 13 of their last 16 meetings with the Braves last year – including the final eight in a row – but they ended that skid last night with a 5-2 victory. New York has now won four of its last six games and six of its last nine, and the key in all six wins has been pitching (a total of six runs allowed, including last Saturday’s 20-inning, 2-1 win at St. Louis). This afternoon, the Mets send young lefty Jonathon Niese back to the bump, and so far in two home games this year Niese has posted a 2.31 ERA with 10 strikeouts against five walks in 11 2/3 innings.
New York’s offense is starting to come around, too, scoring 23 runs in the last five games. Today, that offense goes up against Jair Jurrjens, and while the Atlanta right-hander dominated the Mets last year (4-0, 1.60 ERA in five starts), he also got destroyed in his first road start this season, yielding eight runs in 3 1/3 innings against the light-hitting Padres (Atlanta lost that one 17-2).
Atlanta is just 3-8 in Jurrjens’ last 11 starts as a road favorite of up to minus-150, and with last night’s loss, the Braves have now dropped nine of 10 games to N.L. East rivals going back to last season.
2♦ N.Y. METS
Karl Garrett
NY Yankees at LA ANGELS
Friday night winner on the Celtics, as I am now 15-8 the last 23 days with my comp plays.
Here comes a good-old-fashioned pitchers duel at the Big "A" on Saturday.
It will be Andy Pettitte against Joel Pineiro, and it will be plenty of goose eggs on the scoreboard.
Pettitte has been stingy to say the least on the rubber this year, going 2-0 in his 3 starts with an ERA of 1.35. Included for Pettitte is a 6 inning, 6 strikeout, 5 hit, no run effort against the Angels on April 13th in a win.
Pineiro is not far behind at 2-1 with an ERA of 1.77. Included for Pineiro is a 7 inning, 7 strikeout, 1 run win over the Yankees the next day - April 14th.
I know it is a quick turnaround for these pitchers facing familiar bats, but both teams have been plaing them under the total of late - both under the total in 6 of their last 10 - and with this being an afternoon start, I see the pitchers doing more damage once again.
G-Man on the under baby.
4♦ UNDER