Derek Mancini
Florida at COLORADO (-110) 1st Game
Four consecutive Free Play winners with the Thunder Tuesday, Dodgers on Wednesday, Thunder again Thursday, and Spurs last night! My original play
on the Rockies Friday got rained out, but we're still on them (and Greg Smith) in Game 1 of today's doubleheader!
Home sweet home. The Rockies had a tough road trip, sprinkled with some impressive effort from ace Jimenez. Returning to Coors couldn't have come at a better time, for both the team, and especially Greg Smith (1-1, 4.67 ERA).
Smith has shown improvement from start to start, albeit his tendency to issue free passes is disconcerting. It was an inconsistent effort at Atlanta in his last start, but you've got to be encouraged by his only home start this season. He was superb vs the Mets April 13th, surrendering 2 runs in 7 innings, striking out 8. and issuing 2 walks. Florida is averaging just 2.8 runs/game vs lefties on the road, and a refocused Smith spells trouble tonight.
Seemingly plenty of value by taking Nolasco (1-0, 3.74 ERA) at this price, but don't be fooled. Colorado is hitting righties well at Coors, scoring 4.8 runs per game. And when you look at the price, I can't help but think it's a little fishy (no pun intended). Also, although it's a factor that cannot be measured, I expect the Rockies to be plenty focused after the unexpected passing of president Keli McGregor. It's the Rockies (Smith) over the Marlins (Nolasco) Saturday.
3♦ COLORADO
Stephen Nover
Minnesota at KANSAS CITY (+115)
I'm not in the habit of getting involved with the Kansas City Royals unless the price is right on Zach Greinke.
But I'll make a small exception in this case and give Luke Hochevar a shot. I like the way the 26-year-old righty is pitching so far this season. He's 2-0 with a 2.89 ERA.
Hochevar beat the Twins last Sunday at Target Field despite not having his best stuff, giving up two earned runs on six hits in six innings. I see Hochevar pitching better at home against Minnesota.
Hochevar shut out Detroit in his lone home start this season, giving up five hits in 7 2/3 innings.
Twins pitcher Nick Blackburn, on the other hand, has been shaky during his last two starts. The Royals got to Blackburn in his last start this past Saturday for five earned runs on seven hits in five innings.
Blackburn has been surrendering the long ball, allowing six homers in less than 20 innings this year. One reason for his ineffectiveness is elbow soreness
Even when Blackburn was 100 percent, the Twins rarely won on the road with him on the mound losing in 19 of his past 26 away starts. This includes a 2-7 road mark versus teams with a losing record.
1♦ ROYALS
Jeff Benton
Back on track Friday as the Angels scored late to take down the Yankees. I'm now on runs of 63-33-2, 50-26-2 and 24-11 with plays that I’m giving away! For Saturday, let’s shift gears back to the NBA playoffs and take the Lakers in Game 3 of their series at Oklahoma City.
Why would I turn my back on the Thunder now after they made me a fortune in Games 2 and 3 of this series? Several reasons, and the first is Oklahoma City had to expend a ton of energy in mounting that furious comeback in Game 3, and they could be running on fumes tonight. Secondly, I’m man enough to admit we were pretty damn lucky to get that win and over Thursday night, as the Lakers got lackadaisical after halftime and allowed Kevin Durant and the Thunder crowd to get going. You won’t see L.A. make that mistake again – because Kobe Bryant won’t let it happen.
Speaking of Kobe, you won’t see him get exactly ZERO free-throw attempts again, either. That’s right: The second best player in the league didn’t get to the line once in Game 3. In fact, L.A. shot just 12 free throws in all, while Oklahoma City shot 34! The point differential from the charity stripe: 27-10 in favor of the Thunder (and yet OKC still only won by five points).
I’ll bet my life that free-throw gap gets narrowed, and narrowed significantly tonight. I’ll also bet my life that a pissed-off Bryant takes over this game in a big way. Remember, last year on the way to the championship, L.A. didn’t once suffer back-to-back losses. In fact, their average margin of victory after a defeat was 15 ppg.
7♦ L.A. LAKERS
DUNKEL INDEX
LA Lakers at Oklahoma City
The Lakers look to bounce back from their 101-96 loss in Game 3 and take advantage of an OKC team that is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games after scoring 100 or more points in the previous game. The Lakers are the pick (+2) according to Dunkel, which has LA favored by 2. Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (+2)
Game 507-508: Orlando at Charlotte
Dunkel Ratings: Orlando 123.073; Charlotte 122.471
Dunkel Line & Total: Orlando by 1; 180
Vegas Line & Total: Orlando by 2 1/2; 184 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Charlotte (+2 1/2); Under
Game 509-510: Phoenix at Portland
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 127.911; Portland 120.810
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 7; 209
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix by 1 1/2; 202
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-1 1/2); Over
Game 511-512: Atlanta at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 121.612; Milwaukee 120.319
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 190
Vegas Line & Total: Milwaukee by 1; 187
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+1); Over
Game 513-514: LA Lakers at Oklahoma City
Dunkel Ratings: LA Lakers 122.375; Oklahoma City 120.556
Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 2; 190
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 2; 194
Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (+2); Under
MLB
LA Dodgers at Washington
The Dodgers look to bounce back from last night's loss in the series opener and take advantage of a Washington team that is 0-8 in Craig Stammen's last 8 starts in Game 2 of a series. LA is the pick (-165) according to Dunkel, which has the Dodgers favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-165)
Game 951-952: LA Dodgers at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: LA Dodgers (Kershaw) 15.342; Washington (Stammen) 14.174
Dunkel Line: LA Dodgers by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-165); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Dodgers (-165); Under
Game 953-954: Atlanta at NY Mets
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Jurrjens) 14.108; NY Mets (Niese) 15.142
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-145); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (+125); Under
Game 955-956: San Diego at Cincinnati
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (LeBlanc) 15.555; Cincinnati (Cueto) 15.247
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-130); 9
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+110); Under
Game 957-958: Pittsburgh at Houston
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Jakubauskas) 13.441; Houston (Rodriguez) 14.570
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Houston (-160); 9
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-160); Over
Game 959-960: Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Lilly) 14.988; Milwaukee (Davis) 16.451
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1 1/2; 10
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-115); 9
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-105); Over
Game 961-962: Philadelphia at Arizona
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Figueroa) 15.145; Arizona (Kennedy) 14.490
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 1/2; 11 1/2
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-110); 11
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-110); Over
Game 963-964: Florida at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Robertson) 14.736; Colorado (Cook) 16.242
Dunkel Line: Colorado by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Colorado (-150); 10
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (-150); Under
Game 965-966: St. Louis at San Francisco
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Wainwright) 15.976; San Francisco (Zito) 14.807
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 6
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-150); 7
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-150); Under
Game 967-968: Cleveland at Oakland
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Carmona) 15.773; Oakland (Anderson) 14.765
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Oakland (-150); 8
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+130); Under
Game 969-970: Seattle at Chicago White Sox
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Fister) 15.422; White Sox (Garcia) 14.703
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1/2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Chicago White Sox (-115); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-105); Over
Game 971-972: NY Yankees at LA Angels
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Pettitte) 16.003; LA Angels (Pineiro) 15.707
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-115); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-115); Under
Game 973-974: Toronto at Tampa Bay
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Romero) 15.904; Tampa Bay (Niemann) 17.516
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-140); 9
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-140); Under
Game 975-976: Baltimore at Boston
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Matusz) 13.886; Boston (Lackey) 15.377
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Boston (-200); 9
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-200); Under
Game 977-978: Minnesota at Kansas City
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Blackburn) 15.373; Kansas City (Hochevar) 16.101
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Minnesota (-135); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+115); Over
Game 979-980: Detroit at Texas
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit (Willis) 15.035; Texas (Feldman) 16.278
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Texas (-165); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-165); Over
Game 981-982: Florida at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: Florida (Nolasco) 15.830; Colorado (Smith) 15.326
Dunkel Line: Florida by 1/2; 10 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
NHL
Pittsburgh at Ottawa
The Penguins look to close out the series and build on their 5-1 record in their last 6 playoff games as a favorite between -150 and -200. Pittsburgh is the pick (-160) according to Dunkel, which has the Penguins favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-160)
Game 73-74: Nashville at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Nashville 11.865; Chicago 11.420
Dunkel Line & Total: Nashville by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-250); 5
Dunkel Pick: Nashville (+210); Under
Game 75-76: Pittsburgh at Ottawa
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 11.156; Ottawa 10.972
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-160); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-160); Over
Game 77-78: San Jose at Colorado
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose 11.054; Colorado 11.318
Dunkel Line & Total: Colorado by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-175); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+155); Under
John Ryan
Atlanta Hawks vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Play: Atlanta Hawks +1
3* graded play on Atlanta as they take on Milwaukee set to start at 7:05 EST. First, I had a huge day in MLB and I encourage you to make a full week commitment to my releases and I promise you that you will not be disappointed with the research provided and the results attained. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that Atlanta will win this game and take a 3-0 lead in this first round matchup. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 30-6 for 83.3% winners since 1996. Play against all teams where the line is +3 to -3 and is an average defensive team allowing 43.5-45.5% shooting facing a poor defensive team allowing 45.5-47.5% and after 3 straight games allowing a shooting percentage of 47% or higher. Milwaukee lives and dies by the three pointer and a perimeter game. Atlanta has done very well against similar teams sporting a 24-13 ATS (+9.7 Units) versus teams who attempt 18 or more 3 point shots/game on the season this season. Atlanta is also 32-13 ATS (+17.7 Units) after playing 2 consecutive games as favorite this season. Take the Hawks.
Info Plays
3* on Tampa Bay Rays -141
Reasons the Rays win:
1.) System Play. We'll Play Against - Any team (TORONTO) - off an upset win vs. a division rival as an underdog of +130 or higher, with a hot starting pitcher- WHIP <= 0.800 over his last 3 starts. This is a 32-11 ML System hitting 74.4% since 1997 profiting +22.3 units.
2.) The Blue Jays will not be stealing the first two games of this series against Tampa Bay after a 1-run win last night. The Rays are the best team in baseball and they are 10-4 against division opponents this season. Jeff Niemann gets the ball tonight and he's 1-0 with a 2.94 ERA through 3 starts this season. Niemann is perhaps the most underrated starter in all of baseball.
3.) The Rays are 15-4 in 19 home meetings with the Blue Jays over the last 3 seasons. Tampa Bay should be a much heavier home favorite tonight. Bet the Rays at home.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on NY Yankees -115
Bottom Line: The Yanks have struggled against the Angels on the road in recent years, but they are worth a shot at such a nice price behind Pettitte today. The Yankees are 6-0 in Pettitte's last 6 starts and 23-8 in his last 31 starts as a favorite. The Yankees are 40-12 in their last 52 games as a favorite, 16-5 in their last 21 games as a favorite of -110 to -150 and 8-3 in their last 11 games as a road favorite. Meanwhile, the Angels are 3-7 in their last 10 games as an underdog. Take the Yanks in this bounce back spot.
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Oakland A's -146
Oakland crushed Cleveland 10-0 yesterday and I like the A's to pick up another "W" over the Tribe this afternoon. Oakland has been no place for the Indians as they are just 7-23 in the last 30 meetings there. Plus, the Tribe has dropped 6 in a row in this series. The Indians face a couple more daunting trends as well. They are only 4-23 in their last 27 road games and 0-8 in their last 8 road games vs. a left-handed starter. That left-handed starter is Brett Anderson and the A's are 8-3 in his last 11 starts vs. a team with a losing record. Carmona is off to a decent start this season, but I can't overlook the fact that the Indians are 1-5 in his last 6 road starts. Take the A's.
Jack Jones
New York Yankees -115
Off back-to-back losses, I'll take the Yankees to get back on track tonight behind the left arm of Andy Pettite. This guy just keeps getting the job done despite his age. Pettite is 2-0 with a with a 1.35 ERA this season. In 3 starts, he has allowed a mere 3 earned runs in 20 innings. Pettite is 2-0 in his last 2 starts against the Angels, giving up just 1 earned run in 12.1 innings while also striking out 12.
This play also falls under a system that is 49-13 (79%) over the last 5 seasons. It tells us to bet on all favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (NY YANKEES) - with a starting pitcher who gives up 5.5 or less hits/start, with a well rested bullpen - threw 4 innings or less over last 3 games. I simply cannot see the Yankees losing 3 in a row tonight with Pettite on the mound. Take New York.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Atlanta Hawks at Milwaukee Bucks
Atlanta is already up two games to one in this best of seven series against Milwaukee. Each game was won by 10 points in Atlanta. Now they are playing Game Three in Milwaukee as a small road favorite. The Hawks have taken nine of the last 13 meetings between these two clubs. Atlanta has been very good after back-to-back double digit wins as they are 14-4 ATS in this situation. Milwaukee is just 1-7 ATS in Game Three’s in the NBA playoffs since 1996. Go with Atlanta and lay the small number.
Play on: Atlanta Hawks
Tom Freese
Blue Jays at Rays
Prediction: Under
Toronto starter Ricky Romero has allowed 4 runs total in his 3 starts this year. The Blue Jays are 11-5-1 UNDER their last 17 games as road underdogs of +110 to +150. The Blue Jays are 5-1 UNDER their last 6 games. Romero is 5-2 UNDER his last 7 road starts. Tampa Bay starter Jeff Niemann has allowed 5 runs total in his 3 starts this year. The Rays are 6-1 UNDER their last made by Niemann. Tampa Bay is 7-2 UNDER their last 9 games as favorites and they are 35-17 their last 52 ganes vs. Toronto. PLAY ON 'UNDER'
LARRY NESS
Florida Marlins @ Colorado Rockies
PICK: Colorado Rockies
This is the first game of the doubleheader, making up for yesterday's postponement. I intended to play the Rockies last night and the pitching matchup is the same, so I'll go with Colorado again on Saturday. Here's what I wrote yesterday (nothing has changed).
The Rockies return to Colorado after completing an emotional road trip. Ubaldo Jimenez pitched the first no-hitter in the franchise’s 18-year history in Atlanta on Saturday night but a few days later, team president Keli McGregor (just 48 years-old) was found dead in his hotel room in Salt Lake City. McGregor was a popular guy, who had been with the team since 1993. "McGregor wore No. 88 in college, we scored eight runs in the third inning on Tuesday and we're going home with an 8-8 record," manager Jim Tracy said after Thursday’s 2-0 win over Washington. I expect an outstanding effort by the Rockies, tonight. Jimenez pitched another gem yesterday, limiting the Nationals to just five hits in 7.1 innings in Colorado's 2-0 win. Tonight's starter for Colorado is lefty Greg Smith and while he's no Jimenez, he has allowed just four ERs over his last two starts over 12.1 innings (2.92 ERA) with 13 Ks. He should have gotten two wins in those starts but the Braves rallied for two runs in the bottom of the ninth off Colorado's bullpen on Sunday, handing the Rockies a 4-3 loss. Ricky Nolasco beat the Phillies last Friday 5-1, throwing a CG but note that he struggled in his first two starts of 2010, allowing eight ERs in 12.2 innings (5.68 ERA). He'll face a Colorado lineup which was 32-20 at home vs righties last year, averaging 5.4 RPG. Go with the home team.
Hollywood Sports
St Louis Cardinals at San Francisco Giants
Prediction: St Louis Cardinals
The money line with the St. Louis Cardinals (10-6) presents a good situation in relation to its price. Adam Wainwright has not missed a beat from his breakthrough '09 campaign where he was 19-8 with a 2.63 ERA and a 1.21 WHIP. This season, Wainwright is a perfect 3-0 with a 1.50 ERA and a 0.75 WHIP. What is even more impressive about Wainwright is his strikeout to walk ratio of 22:5. In two starts last year against the Giants, Wainwright enjoyed a 2.61 ERA with a 1.31 WHIP in two starts. On paper, the Giants (9-7) Barry Zito may look to be a tough for for Wainwright given his 2-0 record with a 1.86 ERA and 0.88 WHIP this season. But two of Zito's three starts this season have been against the light-hitting Pittsburgh Pirates and Houston Astros. In two starts last season against Albert Pujols and the Cardinals, Zito was 0-2 with a 6.55 ERA and a 1.82 WHIP. Behind their ace Tim Lincecum last night, the Giants won 4-1. But the Giants have lost four of their last five games after a win while the Cards have won six straight games coming off a loss. The Giants have also lost four straight games as an underdog. But the final nail on the coffin for this game is that St. Louis is 21-6 in their last 27 road games with Wainwright taking the ball. Play the money line with St. Louis over San Fran listing both pitchers Wainwright and Zito.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Tampa Bay Rays -142
First off, the Blue Jays are just 2-7 in the last 9 meetings in this matchup. Secondly, they are only 1-9 in Romero's last 10 starts vs. the American League East. Lastly, the Rays are in good hands with Niemann as they are 5-0 in his last 5 starts as a home favorite of -110 to -150 and 11-1 in his last 12 starts during game 2 of a series. Take the Rays.
EZWINNERS
Houston Astros -160
Last Sunday at Wrigley Field against the Cubs was "Magic" Wandy's best start of the season so far. Wandy went seven innings and only allowed two runs on six hits while striking out three. Wandy is still winless on the season becuase the Astros but did not score until he had already left the game. Rodriguez went 1-1 with a 3.29 ERA against the Pirates last year and Pittsburgh has struggled against lefties for a few seasons now. The Pirates are only 1-3 against Southpaws so far this season and they are only 12-39 in their last 51 road games against a left handed starter. Wandy always pitches much better at home and the Astros are 9-2 in his last 11 home starts. The Pirates have not had a lot of success in this series as they are only 6-16 in the last 22 meetings with the Astros. Look for Wandy to pick up his first win of the season today. Play on Houston.