JR O'Donnell
Phillies/D BacksOver 10.5
Let's break this baby down.
The Arizona D Backs are crushing the rock right now and last night they pound Phillies C. Hamels for 4 dingers in a 7-4 win and 5 homers in all. Can you say gas cans tonight with these 2 hurlers. Nelson Figueroa & Ian Kennedy are a combined 21-10 to the Over as we are not strictly stats and trend players, but tonight's Over is in a rock solid spot.
We feel that the struggling Phillies will get to Ian Kennedy who is (0-1, 5.65), and has not won a ball game since 2007.
No extra hype needed on this play as hits and runs dominate the game tonight
SPORTS WAGERS
Atlanta +1.05 over MILWAUKEE
Conventional NBA wisdom says the inferior home team usually wins game three and then loses game four. It’s a popular “system” that has had some success, with the most recent example being Game three of the Lakers/Thunder series. However, the Thunder are miles better than the Bucks and have the record, talent, and coaching to prove it. The Bucks drew a terrible matchup with the Hawks when Miami won their regular season finale and the result has been two straight losses by 10 points in games a neutral observer never really felt they could win. Milwaukee shot 30% from three in game one and 41.1% from the field in game two, not a big surprise considering their main scoring threats since the loss of Andrew Bogut are Brandon Jennings and John Salmons. Jennings, a rookie, shot under 38% on the season and Salmons blew up after a trade, but he is still a career 44% shooter and has never been the main scoring option on a team before. Simply put, the Bucks don’t have the scorers to consistently put the ball in the basket against a super-athletic Hawks team. Smith, Horford, Johnson and Williams are all above average defenders that also finished the season ranked 3rd in offensive efficiency. The Bucks are undoubtedly going to come with immense intensity but once the game slows down as it always does in playoff basketball the Hawks will start to prevail. The beauty of the playoffs is that teams play hard the entire 48 minutes and very rarely does the team with better talent lose. Milwaukee lost it’s only post presence on offense and defense and isn’t worth your cash simply because they’re playing at home. Look for Atlanta to take a stranglehold on the series. Play: Atlanta +1.05 (Risking 2 units).
L.A. Lakers +1.11 over OKLAHOMA CITY
Sometimes it’s not about momentum or who plays better. No, sometimes outside influences have a real impact on the outcome of a game and the Thunder eliminating the Lakers would be a financial disaster for the NBA. Should the Lakers lose here the series would be tied 2-2 and that’s a little too close for comfort for the NBA. A Lakers/Cav’s (Kobe/LeBron) Final would be a financial dream come true for the NBA and sometimes dreams do come true. Kobe Bryant did not get to the free-throw line even once in game three and you can mortgage your home that will not happen again. They breathe on Kobe today and the refs might call a technical. When you take that into consideration and you throw in the Lakers huge size and rebounding advantage over the Thunder and the writing is on the wall for this resilient and determined host. The interesting thing here is that game three started to turn around for the Thunder when Scott Brooks put Kevin Durant on Kobe. If he starts the game that way here, there’s a great chance that Durant gets into early foul trouble because everything is going to be called when Kobe drives the lane. With Durant on the bench for significant minutes, the Thunder have no shot and if Durant is not on Kobe, then he could go off for a ton of points. Either way, it’s a no win situation for the Thunder and again, it can’t be stressed enough how everything is going to be called. It’s tough enough to beat the Lakers but under these circumstances, the NBA and refs make it near impossible. Play: L.A. Lakers +1.11 (Risking 2 units).
San Diego/CINCINNATI over 9 +1.09
Wade LeBlanc gets the start here only because Chris Young is not ready and as soon as he is, LeBlanc will be either in the minors or the last man in the pen. LeBlanc has a decent looking pitching line in his season debut but when you look inside the pitching line it reveals trouble. First, the game was at pitcher-friendly Petco Park and although he allowed just one run in five innings, LeBlanc still surrendered seven hits and two walks for a 1.80 WHIP and a .350 BAA. Then there’s the GB/FO ratio, which saw LeBlanc retire just three outs via the groundball while 10 hitters flew out and most of those were deep. A fly-ball pitcher at Great American Ballpark is a complete disaster waiting to happen. Johnny Cueto is all over the place. In three starts his pitch count has been 109, 110 and 103 and he’s pitched five innings twice and six innings once. He’s walked eight batters while striking out just nine and he’s always pitching from behind in the count. He’s already given up nine runs and has been hit hard every game thus far. In two starts vs the Padres, Cueto is 0-1 with a 7.36 ERA over 11 frames and that’s when he was pitching well. Also consider that the Padres are scoring runs and often turn singles into doubles via the stolen base. In fact, the Padres own a league-leading 18 stolen bases, and have only been caught three times. Play: San Diego/Cincinnati over 9 +1.09 (Risking 2 units).
Seattle +1.00 over CHICAGO (1st 5 innings)
The White Sox bats managed to come alive last night but so what. Every time they’ve come alive this season they’ve slipped right back to nothing the following day and why should we trust today will be different. The South Side is still batting an AL low of .219 and they still have the second worst record in the AL. Freddy Garcia is pitching on eight days rest but he might need eight weeks rest. Garcia has to be considered one of the most hittable and unappealing favorites in the business. He’s already 0-2 with an 8.10 ERA and he’s already walked eight batters in 10 frames. He didn’t make it into the fourth inning in his last start when the Jays got to him for seven runs in three innings. Doug Fister is on a bit of a roll with two straight wins and 1.42 ERA. He has but one start against the White Sox in his career, tossing six shutout innings last season and this season he’s inducing a lot more ground ball outs. White Sox favored here is completely incorrect and with Garcia being a complete stiff we’ll try to eliminate the pens. Play: Seattle +1.00 (Risking 2 units).
KANSAS CITY +1.12 over Minnesota (1st 5 innings)
The Royals have loads of trouble holding onto leads so there’s no reason to play them for the whole game when this choice is based on the starting pitchers. Nick Blackburn faced the Royals a week ago in Minnesota and was rocked pretty hard. He surrendered two bombs and five runs in five innings but received a no-decision. The White Sox also hit him pretty hard and reports are that he’s battling a sore elbow. In three starts thus far, Blackburn has a BAA of .305 and an ERA of 6.05. The Royals have the league’s second best OPS (on-base plus slugging %). Luke Hochevar is 2-0 with a 2.89 ERA in three starts covering 18 frames. He’s faced the Tigers twice and went six solid innings at Target Field last week. No edge here to the Twinkies and chances are pretty strong that the Royals score a few in the first five. Bye, bye Blackburn. Play: Kansas City in the first five innings +1.12 (Risking 2 units).
Toronto +1.33 over TAMPA BAY
In three starts, Jeff Niemann is 1-0 with a 2.93 ERA and that looks pretty sweet on paper. It also looks pretty sweet pitching for the Rays and the result of that is an inflated line here. Make no mistake, Jeff Niemann is an average pitcher at best and he’s been very fortunate thus far. He’s faced the feeble Orioles twice and in his last game he faced the Red Sox at Fenway. In that game at Fenway the Red Sox stranded 11 runners and a bunch of balls just missed going out. In fact, Niemann only retired six batters via groundout while 15 were hit in the air. That’s playing with fire and the Jays can go deep with the best of them. Niemann has just seven k’s in 15.3 frames. It’s also worth noting that Aaron Hill is off the DL and went deep last night. Hill back in the line-up is huge for te Jays and they instantly got to previously unhittable Matt Garza for four runs in the first inning last night en route to a 7-6 victory. Then there’s Ricky Romero. The Rays are 0-2 at home vs lefties and Romero is a good one. He’s had three quality starts, pitching at least seven full in all three. Romero has an eye-opening 0.74 WHIP, a BAA of .143 and an ERA of 1.57. No pitcher in the AL is throwing better than this guy and in terms of value, Romero and the Jays offer it up here. Play: Toronto +1.33 (Risking 2 units).
Passing NHL
Wunderdog
Atlanta Hawks vs. Milwaukee Bucks
Play: Milwaukee Bucks -1
The Atlanta Hawks breezed through the first two games of this series with a pair of 10-point wins. That isn't what the story is about here however. The Hawks have an elongated history of struggling on the road in the playoffs. Going back to 1990, the Hawks have been dreadful on the road at just 8-29 and that includes 1-13 in their last 14 road playoffs games. The Bucks have really been dealing the cash as a small favorite as they have put together a mark of 29-5-1 ATS in their last 26 as a favorite of 4.5 or less. The Bucks are a strong 34-15-2 ATS overall in their last 51 and have been under the radar all year. I'll go with Milwaukee in this one.
Craig Trapp
Lakers vs. Thunder
Play: Over 194
OKC can't win a game in the low 90's they must push the pace to get easier scoring oppurtunities. Lakers three point shooting finally has been found in game 3, which they will need to win tonight. Kobe played poorly in game 3 which usually means watchout for next game. Kobe vs Durant today might score 100 between them. This one going to be a close game late and should help with some late fouls to get this one to the low 200's!
Teddy Covers
Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona Diamondbacks A
PICK: Philadelphia Phillies
Arizona got off to a good start this year in large part due to a favorable opening week schedule, drawing Pittsburgh and San Diego at home. Since winning those two series, the D-backs have gone 3-7, and they look very much like a team that could go 3-7 in their next ten games as well. Yet, the betting markets overvalued this team right from the get-go, giving us ample opportunity to fade the D-backs here against superior competition.
Arizona starter Ian Kennedy won his first big league start, back on September 1, 2007. He’s failed to notch a single victory since that game. The Yankees gave up on him this past offseason, and his first two starts of 2010 were not pretty: nine earned runs allowed in 9.1 innings of work.
Even a solid showing against the light hitting Padres in Kennedy’s last outing didn’t equate with a victory for the D-backs Arizona’s struggling bullpen, ranked dead last out of 30 MLB teams in ERA, blew yet another late inning lead. Manager AJ Hinch: “It takes 27 outs, not 21, not 24. It’s no fun down there right now. It’s going to take some resilience from us to get through this.” Facing a potent Phillies lineup (top 5 in MLB in runs scored this year), look for the D-backs woes to continue on Saturday. 2* Take Philadelphia.
Black Widow
1* on Suns/Blazers OVER 202
This total has been set too low in Game 4 in a game that will see both the Suns and Blazers top the 100-point mark. The Suns have scored 100 or more in 6 straight games, and they are averaging 109.0 points/game in this series. Portland has slowed down the last two games, but in this all-important Game 4 look for the Blazers to be much more aggressive in trying to get to the free throw line. 6 of the last 8 meetings in this head-to-head series have resulted in 205 or more combined points. So you can see there is some really nice value with this OVER tonight. The OVER is 4-0 in Suns last 4 games as a favorite of 0.5-4.5. The OVER is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings in Portland. Portland is 21-11 OVER as an underdog this season. Take the OVER 202 points here.
Mike Rose
San Diego Padres vs. Cincinnati Reds
Play: San Diego Padres
The Padres have been quite the surprise to start the season, as they enter today’s battle with the Reds winners of seven in a row. They hold a one-game lead over the San Francisco Giants after just sweeping them at Petco Park.
As for the Reds, they stand three-games under .500 heading into this afternoon’s game after getting rocked in the series opener.
Wade LeBlanc will get his second starting nod of the season from manager Bud black after he churned out a decent showing against Arizona after most recently getting called back up from Triple-A.
He ended up tossing five innings of one run ball and allowed seven hits (3 to Mark Reynolds) while striking out seven and walking a pair. The southpaw went 3-1 with a 3.69 ERA and allowed just 35 hits and 19 ER’s through nine starts for the Padres a season ago.
Though he’s yet to figure in a decision this season, the Reds are just 1-2 in Cueto’s three overall starts. He owns a 5.06 ERA & 1.69 WHIP and has allowed nine ER’s and 19 hits through just 16 total innings of work. Opponents are batting .292 against him to date.
The power righty has thrown 100+ pitches in each of his first three starts, but has only managed to get through six innings once. He allowed five hits and three ER’s with a K/BB ratio of 4/4 his last time out against the Pirates; a game the Reds lost 5-4.
The Padres are a rock solid 19-7 the L/26 times they played in the second game of a series, and they’re 4-1 in LeBlanc’s L/5 road starts.
Something is wrong with Cueto right now, and that’s not good news for Reds fans or their betting backers. He’s instrumental towards helping the team earn its first winning mark in years.
With neither starter figuring to go more than six innings, I have to side with the team with the better bullpen in this one. San Diego’s unit currently ranks 7th overall with a 4-0 record and unit ERA of 3.04. Closer Heath Bell has also only blown one save in five chances.
The Reds unit ranks 25th overall and is 6-4 with a bloated 6.02 ERA. It also has three blown saves in nine tries.
Look for the Padres to cash as slight underdogs once again today. Their a feel good story right now, but watch it if this young squad continues to win games.
O.C. Dooley
Orioles +180
Baltimore continues what has been a disastrous start (2-15) to brand new campaign but last night they came within ONE run of pulling off a massive upset against a divisional opponent who has owned them for years. The bottom line is that Baltimore has one of the game’s most talented young pitchers on the mound and between this year and last season Brian Matusz has a WINNING (7-2) overall record. Taking a look a mere statistics Matusz has a big edge over John Lackey (5.63 ERA) who like so many Boston players is off to a slow start. Going into last night’s contest the Red Sox as a team were off to their worst start in FOURTEEN YEARS due in part to a myriad of sluggish starts by veteran players (Victor Martinez, David Ortiz, J.D. Drew) along with injuries that have sidelined another pair of veteran performers including 2009 stolen base champion Jacoby Ellsbury. Another problem involving Boston has been very poor defensive performances from their catchers who have thrown out a grand total of only ONE runner on base. The Orioles are lacking speed with veteran Brian Roberts currently on the disabled list, but Adam Jones last night snapped out of an “0-for-16” slump swatting a two-run homer and he just happens to posses serious speed. The bottom line is that for a second consecutive night the oddsmakers have been forced to “over price” the Red Sox (3-6 past nine games) who have actually been the worst performing squad in the entire American League East in respect to the overall talent available to the manager. My database research indicates that the newest member of Boston’s rotation (John Lackey) is actually a very poor “2-7” at HOME the past two years against an opponent with a very poor “on base percentage” of .330 or worse and the light hitting Orioles certainly fit that bill
Jimmy Moore
LA Lakers @ Oklahoma City
Pick: LA Lakers +2
Oklahoma City had their fun in game 3 getting the win but things will be different in game 4 as the Lakers will be fully focused to take control of this series. There is no way Kobe will be losing 2 in a row to Durant and the Thunder.
Dan Bebe
MIL (+100) vs CHC
As talked about at great length on the podcast today, pitchers coming off back injuries are always a dicey proposition, and that's exactly what we have with Ted Lilly today.
He is going to struggle. his pitch count isn't going to be very high, and the Cubs bullpen, as we know, has been a tad shaky.
The Brewers couldn't get the engine started against Ryan Dempster yesterday, but they'll back Doug Davis (who has been surprisingly successful against the Cubs in his career) with some runs, and we'll see the Brewers take game two in this divisional rivalry set at home.
It might not be easy, and the final out might be caught on the warning track (thank you, Trevor Hoffman), but Milwaukee gets it done.