Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, April 27

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

Milwaukee at LA Dodgers
The Brewers look to bounce back from last night's 7-5 loss to LA and build on their 5-1 record in their last 6 games after scoring 5 or more runs in the previous game. Milwaukee is the pick (+110) according to Dunkel, which has the Brewers favored by 1/2 a run. Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+110)

Game 901-902: Philadelphia at NY Mets (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Pettibone) 14.417; NY Mets (Marcum) 15.199
Dunkel Line: NY Mets by 1; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Mets (-140); 8
Dunkel Pick: NY Mets (-140); Under

Game 903-904: Cincinnati at Washington (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Leake) 14.366; Washington (Haren) 15.057
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Washington (-110); 8
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-110); Over

Game 905-906: Pittsburgh at St. Louis (4:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh (Burnett) 16.822; St. Louis (Westbrook) 16.307
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1/2 8 1/2
Vegas Line: St. Louis (-130); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+110); Over

Game 907-908: Chicago Cubs at Miami (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cubs (Wood) 15.015; Miami (Sanabia) 14.062
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Chicago Cubs (-135); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (-135); Under

Game 909-910: Colorado at Arizona (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado (Francis) 15.346; Arizona (Miley) 16.959
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1 1/2; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Arizona (-170); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-170); Under

Game 911-912: San Francisco at San Diego (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Zito) 15.590; San Diego (Stults) 15.988
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-125); 7
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+105); Over

Game 913-914: Milwaukee at LA Dodgers (9:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Peralta) 15.704; LA Dodgers (Fife) 15.141
Dunkel Line: Milwaukee by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: LA Dodgers (-130); 8
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (+110); Over

Game 915-916: Baltimore at Oakland (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Tillman) 14.307; Oakland (Griffin) 15.380
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Oakland (-145); 8
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-145); Under

Game 917-918: Toronto at NY Yankees (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto (Happ) 14.503; NY Yankees (Sabathia) 15.512
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 2; 7 1/2
Vegas Line: NY Yankees (-170); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (-170); Under

Game 919-920: Texas at Minnesota (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Holland) 15.083; Minnesota (Hernandez) 15.498
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Texas (-150); 8
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+130); Over

Game 921-922: Houston at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston (Peacock) 14.202; Boston (Doubront) 13.869
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Boston (-260); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+220); Under

Game 923-924: Tampa Bay at Chicago White Sox (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay (Moore) 16.517; White Sox (Floyd) 15.386
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-125); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-125); Over

Game 925-926: Cleveland at Kansas City (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland (Kazmir) 14.435; Kansas City (Santana) 16.267
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 2; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 927-928: LA Angels at Seattle (9:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Blanton) 13.340; Seattle (Hernandez) 14.911
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Seattle (-170); 7
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-170); Over

Game 929-930: Atlanta at Detroit (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Medlen) 16.880; Detroit (Porcello) 15.641
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Atlanta (-125); 8
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-125); Over

Alf MusketaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Michael Bisping vs. Alan BelcherFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Michael Bisping -175FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This fight is co-main event of the evening and has been on the minds of fight fans ever since they announced this card. At UFC 159, Saturday night on Pay Per View, these two 185 pound middleweight contenders, Michael Bisping (23-5) versus Alan Belcher (18-7), finally enter the octagon. It has become obvious they do not like each other and have bashed each other through the media, most notably on YouTube.
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Belcher made the fight even more interesting when last month his friend Cincinnati Bengal's defensive end Wallace Gilberry offered to put up his Phantom Rolls Royce worth $300,000 if Bisping could knock out Belcher in the first round. Bisping did not bite. Belcher then made another offer to get a tattoo of the flag of England on his chest if he lost and said if Bisping lost he would have to get a tattoo of Johnny Cash, the same one which is on Belcher’s left arm. Bisping believes he will use these childish offers as additional motivation.
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Belcher won four fights in a row including a stunning TKO over Rousimar Palhares with odds of +215 before losing his last match to Yushin Okami. In fact that was the second time Belcher lost to Okami. Belcher can win this contest if he stays on his feet and tries to make this fight a stand up war. He has great hands and solid high kicks.
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Bisping also lost his last fight but has never lost two fights in a row. I would compare his style to that of Okami, but Bisping has better cardio and performs well under pressure. He'll use his Ju Jitsu on the ground and he's by far the superior wrestler in this match. We see this fight going the three full rounds and Bisping dominating in the clinch and on the canvas and winning a unanimous decision.

Jim FeistFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Baltimore Orioles vs. Oakland A'sSERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Baltimore OriolesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Baltimore heads West with a winning record both home and away. This offense is one of the best, 6th in baseball in runs scored and slugging, 10th in on base percentage. Chris Tillman has dominated the A's with a 2.08 ERA against them. The Orioles are 6-1 in their last 7 vs. the AL West. The Orioles are also 21-9 against a right-handed starter. Oakland is home from a 6-game road trip in the East (and a bad trip), at Tampa Bay and Boston. Starter A.J. Griffin (4.50 ERA) has been struggling with an ERA of 5.00 his last three starts. Play the Orioles.

Marc LawrenceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Pittsburgh Pirates at St Louis CardinalsFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: Pittsburgh PiratesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Pirates and Cardinals meet in Game Two of this three-game series Saturday afternoon in St. Louis where A. J. Burnett matches serves with Jake Westbrook. Burnett toes the slab in solid KW form with 23 strikeouts and 6 walks in his last three starts knowing he has cashed in 7 of his last 11 teams starts against the Cards. On the flip side Westbrook is in lousy KW form with 8 strikeouts and 14 walks in his last three efforts and just 2-7 with a 5.79 ERA in his career team starts against the Bucs. With that we'll back the visiting Pirates here today. We recommend a 1-unit play on Pittsburgh.

Jimmy BoydFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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San Diego Padres +113FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Barry Zito was crushed in his last game on the road to the tune of 9 earned runs in 2.7 innings pitched. While Zito may have responded well in his last start at home, it is now obvious he prefers the comfort of throwing in front of his home crowd. Zito is 5-9 in his career against the Padres with a 4.56 ERA.
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The Padres picked up a win last night against Giant's ace Tim Lincecum and today's game against Zito should play out the same way. When Eric Stults has been the starting pitcher his team is 6-4 against San Francisco. Considering how inconsistent Zito has been this season and the fact that the Padres are batting .257 against division opponents we have to make a lean to the home team.

Stephen NoverFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Pittsburgh vs. St. LouisFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Over 7½FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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On the surface this total seems right based on how well A.J. Burnett and Jake Westbrook are pitching. But Burnett never has been consistent and Westbrook is pitching way above his head. He's been very lucky so far.
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The last time Burnett pitched at Busch Stadium he surrendered a career-high 12 runs on 12 hits in just 2 2/3 innings during a 12-3 loss last May 2.
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The Cardinals have a very efficient offense ranking fourth in runs scored with 45 percent of their baserunners scoring. Unlike other teams, the Cardinals know how to plate baserunners.
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Pittsburgh is going to get its share of runs against Westbrook, whose 1.25 ERA is highly misleading considering he's allowed 32 baserunners in 21 2/3 innings. Westbrook is walking close to six batters per nine innings while striking out less than four per nine innings. Westbrook has a career ERA of 4.26 and a career WHIP of 1.40. He's due to get lit up.
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The Pirates have a strong history versus Westbrook, who is 1-7 against Pittsburgh with a 5.91 ERA in nine starts. The over is 18-7-2 during Westbrook's last 27 home starts. Westbrook can't rely on his inconsistent bullpen either.
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Note, too, that the over is 9-1-1 the past 11 times these teams have met in St. Louis. Scheduled home plate umpire Mike Winters has a tight strike zone, but the over has cashed in three of his four home plate appearances this season.

Rob VincilettiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Cincinnati Reds vs. Washington Nationals
Play: Cincinnati RedsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Reds are a small road favorite here and fit an 80% System that plays against home dogs like Washington that are off a home favored win,while scoring 2 or less runs, vs an opponent off a road dog loss also scoring 2 or less runs on 2 or less hits. Washington is a mediocre 5-8 vs winning teams and is hitting just .202 in day games, The Reds have Leake on the mound and his overall era at 3.81 is better that Dan Haren and his 7.36 era. The Reds have been inconsistent at the plate of late and have struggled to score consistently. Look for them to bounce back after getting just 2 hits last night. Take the Reds.

Jack JonesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Tampa Bay Rays -115FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Tampa Bay Rays have a big edge on the mound tonight with Matt Moore over Gavin Floyd. After losing the first two games of this series to the White Sox, I look for them to bounce back with a Game 3 victory behind their dominant left-hander.
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Moore is 4-0 with a 1.04 ERA and 0.923 WHIP through four starts this season. He has allowed just 3 earned runs and 10 hits while striking out 29 batters over 26 innings this year.
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Gavin Floyd had really struggled for Chicago, going 0-3 with a 4.99 ERA and 1.616 WHIP through four starts this season. Moore is 1-1 with a 1.46 ERA and 0.649 WHIP in two career starts against the White Sox.
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The Rays are 6-0 in Moore's last 6 starts overall. Tampa Bay is 4-0 in its last 4 games as a favorite of -110 to -150. The White Sox are 2-8 in Floyd's last 10 starts as an underdog. Bet the Rays Saturday.

Alex SmartFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Detroit Red Wings -127FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Detroit who suffered through a season with numerous injuries in their lineup now needs to earn just one point to avoid missing the playoffs for the first time since 1989-90 and will leave everything on the ice tonight.The Red Wings have won five of their last six meetings with the Stars.

Dave PriceFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Washington Nationals -101FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Cincinnati Reds have fallen to 1-7 on the road with losses in the first two games of this series. They have now dropped six of their last seven at Washington. Dan Haren has an elevated 7.36 ERA but has shown signs of settling down as he's given up just three earned runs in each of his past three starts. The bulk of his ERA stems from a terrible showing against the Reds in his first start of the season. Something tells me a veteran like Haren, who has won at all of his stops, isn't going to allow the Reds to spray him all around the yard again. Plus, that game was in Cincinnati. The Reds haven't swung the bat nearly as well on the road. Mike Leake has lost his last two starts versus Washington with one of those coming Apr. 6, during which he gave up four earned runs in six innings. He has been touched for 15 runs in his last 15 1/3 innings against the Nats. Take Washington.

Bruce MarshallFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis CardinalsSERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Pittsburgh PiratesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Don't expect the Cardinals to have it as easy tonight as they did on Friday. when the Redbirds took advantage of the soft spot in the Pirates' rotation, Jonathan Sanchez, to jump all over the Bucs with back-to-back homers to begin the game en route to a 9-1 romp. Remember, Pittsburgh had won 12 of 16 games previously, and its staff had posted a 1.89 ERA in the preceding seven games, so a return to the recent norm could be expected at Busch Stadium from the Pirates. Especially since the Buccos will be going with vet starter A.J. Burnett, who has posted a 2.79 ERA in April and held St. Louis to just one hit in 7 IP of a 5-0 win at PNC Park on April 17. Meanwhile, though Cards starter Jake Westbrook has been hot in the early going, note that he has had all sorts of trouble vs. Pittsburgh in his career, as a 1-7 record and 5.91 ERA in previous encounters vs. the Pirates would attest.

Dave CokinFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Baltimore Orioles at Oakland AthleticsSERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Baltimore OriolesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Not a great deal of focus on the two pitchers here. I basically have Chris Tillman and AJ Griffin right about even. Griffin has slightly better base numbers, some of Tillman's peripherals would garner him a slight edge. Obviously, Tillman gets a current form advantage as he's off a solid effort while Griffin was absolutely bombed last time out. But a one-game sample doesn't mean a whole lot. I know the A's have a ridiculous record whenever Griffin starts, particularly at home, but scanning across all the columns it's pretty easy to see there's been some pretty good fortune along the way. But that's offset by my never really knowing what to expect out of the erratic Tillman, and he's not exactly the type to put one in a comfort zone.
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So if the pitching is a wash, there's a little value on the Orioles, but not really enough to get excited about. The impetus for me is more on the offense here. The A's had been killing the ball, but the attack has ground to a halt the last couple of games.It looks to me like they're finally really starting to miss Yoenis Cespedes. He'll be back shortly, but not today. It's not like Cespedes was killing the ball before he got hurt, as he was only 8/40, although he did have three long balls. But this is clearly not nearly as dangerous a lineup sans Cespedes. He enables the guys around him to see better pitches. Instead, we're now seeing pitchers really attack this batting order and with increasingly good results.
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Sometimes we all complicate what's really simple. Today, I'll rely on the most basic of all analysis to hopefully produce a winner. The Orioles just keep on winning and they're in excellent form right now. Oakland has gone the other way over the last ten games and they're on an 0-3 skid right now. Add in a plus sign on the price and the Orioles appear worth a play today.

Vegas ConnectionFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles DodgersSERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Los Angeles DodgersFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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LA got very lucky Friday when OF Gonzalez dropped the ball in CF after getting a bad start. Brewers were on tear but have dropped a few since streak was snapped by Padres a few days ago. The Dodgers grab another win at Chavez Ravine. Take LA Dodgers

Joe GavazziFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Brooklyn +3FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Chicago showed again Thursday night why they have been NBA's worst home favorite and why they have been such a poor positive momentum team. They blew a double digit lead failing to cover by ½ point in an eventual 79-76 win. That win, no cover also dropped their record to 15-29 ATS this season following a victory. Now Chicago enters Game #4 leading the series 2 games to 1 following back-to-back wins in which they allowed Brooklyn to score just 79 PPG on 35% shooting. Game #4 road dogs at 1-2 in the series /BBL are a high percentage play vs. sub .667 home teams. But Chicago's edge in making adjustments with HC Thibodeau vs. HC Carlisimo is so dominant that one must reduce the situational play on the Nets.