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Houston +1FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Houston plus the point (+1) as the Okie Thunder will have their hands full and these Rockets are playing for pride and moxy.. WAY TOO EASY TOO ride the road team. The Rockets are off a 3 point loss as the Thunder blew a 15 point lead... Harden goes off for 36 as the One Man show... Rockets had that 22-2 run and they will remember that... let's play the Lin less Rockets plus the 1.
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Philadelphia vs. NY MetsFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: PhiladelphiaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Phillies have won 8 of their last 11 games at Citi Field and we give them a good chance to do it again on Saturday afternoon.
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Shaun Marcum makes his debut for the Mets on Saturday afternoon as he comes back from nerve inflammation in his neck. Marcum made a few starts in extended Spring Training, but he will be on an 85-90 pitch limit. He has not faced the Phillies since 2011 when he saw them twice. Overall, the righty is 2-1 with a 3.51 ERA in five career starts versus Philadelphia. Ryan Howard (4-8), Jimmy Rollins (3-10) and Chase Utley (3-7) have had good success against the former Brewers’ starter. The Phillies are hitting .303 in four day games and they found some offense on Friday night in a win over New York. The Mets’ bullpen has an ERA over 5.00 and figures to get some work with Marcum on a pitch count.
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Jonathan Pettibone made a nice debut for the Phillies. The righty got a no-decision, but he only allowed 2 runs and six hits in just over five innings striking out six while walking none. The Mets are hitting right around .200 in their last eight games and they are not putting up big numbers offensively as of late. They have scored just 13 total runs in their last five games. The Phillies have won 8 of their last 11 games at Citi Field and we give them a good chance to do it again on Saturday afternoon.
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Montreal vs. TorontoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: TorontoFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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These teams have played each other four times this year and the Leafs have prevailed in three: 2-1 in Montreal on January 19th; 6-0 in Montreal on February 9th; 5-1 in Toronto on April 13th. The Habs are 28-14-5 overall and 14-7-2 on the road. They're coming off a 4-2 win at Winnipeg on Thursday. Toronto is 26-16-5 overall and 13-8-2 at home. It's coming off a 4-0 win at Florida on Thursday. The Canadiens secured home ice throughout the first round with their last victory. The Leafs need a single point to ensure that they don't drop into the sixth seed in the East. Toronto has been extremely sharp in front of the home town crowd of late winning seven of its last nine in friendly confines; one player you'll want to track is Toronto's Phil Kessel who has nine goals over his last nine games (he also has five assists and seven points vs. the Habs this season). In what is likely a first round playoff matchup, I feel that the home side offers plenty of value in this situation.
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Tampa Bay vs. Chi. White SoxFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Tampa BayFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Understand that I won yesterday going against the Rays. I noted how they haven't been a very good road team so far in 2013 (now 2-9), and sure enough they fell 5-4 after blowing an early 3-0 lead. But tonight they have something going for them in that Matt Moore is starting. I used Moore earlier in the week at home vs. the Yankees and he came through building on his already strong start.
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Here are my keys to the game:FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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1. Matt Moore - After having to face Chris Sale and Jake Peavy in the first two games of this series, now it's the Rays that can throw out their ace. Moore has been outstanding this year, winning all four starts while posting a 1.04 ERA. He has already won at both Baltimore and Texas. After not allowing a single run in either of his first two starts, he allowed just two at Baltimore and then was even better vs. the Yankees Monday, holding them to one run over eight innings on two hits. Incredibly, he has allowed just 10 hits all season in 26 innings of work.
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2. More Moore - In two starts last year vs. the White Sox, he posted a 1.46 ERA. He didn't allow any runs in the team's 10-4 win here at US Cellular Field in September. Keep in mind the White Sox are averaging just 3.3 runs/game in their home park so far this season.
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3. X-Factor - The Rays are 4-1 this season playing with double revenge.
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Detroit vs. DallasFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: DetroitFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Red Wings don't have to win per se, but they don't dare lose. They come into Saturday with a one-point lead on both Minnesota and Columbus in the fight for the final two playoff spots out West. If the Red Wings did lose here, and the other two teams won, they'd be left on the outside. Considering the Wild plays the Avs and the Blue Jackets host Nashville, the pressure is on Detroit here...
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I'm taking the Wings here. Fortunately, they have played well down the stretch. They have won three straight, one of those was a signature 10* Ultimate Power release for me over the LA Kings on Wednesday. They followed that up with another home win, beating Nashville 5-2. Here they draw a Stars team that's ending its season pretty poorly as they have lost four in a row, including 3-1 here at home vs. Columbus Thursday night.
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This will be Detroit's 1st visit to Dallas this season. But they haven't had much problem here in the past, winning four of the last five. This boils down to the simple fact that Detroit must have the game and the Stars are playing for nothing.
Jeff Benton
Your Saturday freebie is Atlanta-Detroit under the total in their matinee at Comerica.
Atlanta got their ya-yas out at Coors Field earlier this week, while Detroit and Kansas City put some runs on the board in their abbreviated set at Comerica Park.
Then last night the Tigers continued raking, while the Braves bats fell dead silent.
I do not think that the Tigers high-scoring trend will continue this afternoon.
With this being a day game after a night game, you get the feeling the bats will be a little "sleepy" for this matinee.
Kris Medlen has been hard to scratch out a run against, as the righty stands at 1-2 through his first 4 starts this year, but his ERA is a solid 2.16 for the year, and he has not allowed more than 3 earned runs to score in any of those assignments.
True, Rick Porcello is the flip side of that coin, as Porcello has been shellacked for 16 runs in his 13 innings of work - 9 of them coming his last time out which lasted a grand total of 2/3rds of an inning.
Still, Porcello is facing Atlanta for the first time, so he at least has the element of surprise working in his favor. I think you can count on Porcello working deeper into this game with minimal damage.
Lets call this one 7 runs tops between the teams, and an Under in the Braves-Tigers game.
1* ATLANTA-DETROIT UNDER
Scott Delaney
My free winner for tonight is on the San Diego Padres over the San Francisco Giants and I want you listing pitchers in this game, as we have ourselves a little revenge-game theory taking place with Eric Stults over Barry Zito.
Stults will be looking to avenge his last start, in which he allowed a season-high five runs against these same Giants. Since firing five shutout innings in his first start, on April 4, against the New York Mets, the left-hander has allowed 25 hits over his last three starts. Now at home, in pitcher-friendly Petco Park, I expect him to be at his best to earn revenge.
While Zito is hoping to take his AT&T Park success on the road, I'm not sure he actually can. He's thrown in four games this season - three at home and one on the highway. He's 3-0 in Frisco and 0-1 in Milwaukee, where he lasted all of 2-2/3 innings and was tagged for eight hits and nine earned runs. This one is going to be a rough one for him, mark my words.
List both and take the home team here.
2* SAN DIEGO
Chris Jordan
My free winner is on the St. Louis Cardinals, who have played just seven home games so far, fewest among National League teams. They made the most of their return to Busch Stadium with a rout of the Pittsburgh Pirates in last night's series-opener.
Tonight I see the line is a bit cheaper, but that doesn't faze me, this should be higher, as the Cardinals are now on a little roll, and they have sweep and winning run on the brain.
The Redbirds have won four in a row, and tonight they're handing the ball to Jake Westbrook, who had a start against Pittsburgh rained out earlier this month, and here's why I'm not llisting either hurler - he's opposing A.J. Burnett - because the Pirates have always given the Westbrook fits.
The St. Louis has only one win in 13 appearances against the Bucs, and I think he's in a good spot to reverse the trend here. I know Burnett has been stellar to start the season, but I don't know if he can handle this red-hot lineup right now.
Again, I don't care about listing either pitcher, so let's make money with the Cardinals.
3* ST. LOUIS
Brad Wilton
For your free play on Saturday, I think it is a safe assumption that there will be some points scored in the Pacers-Hawks tilt at the Philips Arena.
Both games played in Indianapolis easily topped the total to make it 5 straight series meetings between the teams landing in the Over column.
The Pacers have now played 6 of their last 7, and 8 of their last 10 overall OVER the total, and the Hawks have not shown that they can stop Frank Vogel's team from cracking the century, as Indy has topped 100 points in 5 straight series meetings.
As for the Hawks, they are on a 6-1 Over run of their own.
This is the largest priced total in the series, but I don't think the teams will have any trouble shattering it.
Pacers-Hawks to go Over.
5* INDIANA-ATLANTA OVER
Craig Davis
Atlanta hasn't lost to Indiana at home since 2008, and that was a two-point game. Since then the Hawks have averaged winning by nearly double digits, including two wins this year of three and nine points. Last year it was 10 and 12 points.
Either way you slice it, the home team has dominated this series winning 9 of the last 10 and 15 of the last 17... that's pretty impressive.
The Hawks definitely didn't end the regular season the way they wanted, but they did have a stretch in March/April where they won 7 of 9 including five double digit wins.
They know the desperation of having to win a Game 3 when down 2-0... it's happened to them recently in the playoffs and they always seem to bounce back with the answer.
You'll see a better effort from Josh Smith and Jeff Teague and the defense will have to play better for the Hawks to make this a 2-1 series and take it back to Indiana.
They will.
I like the Hawks by seven today as your free play of the day.
3* ATLANTA
Brett Atkins
My free play is on the Los Angeles Clippers tonight, against the Memphis Grizzlies, as I think with Oklahoma City losing Russell Westbrook, you're going to see the Clippers respond. Sound weird? Not really, follow me...
I'm a firm believer the NBA Playoffs are more mental than anything else, and as long as you're a contender in this game, you're stuck on what every one else is doing as much as what you're putting on the floor. So knowing the Clippers would get the Thunder in the second round, Los Angeles' chances to make it to the Western Conference Finals just increased with Westbrook headed in for knee surgery. Get it?
The facts remain the same overall, too, in that one L.A. road win here would put the Clippers in a commanding position. The Clippers failed to do so in Game 3, and have to know if Memphis wins this game, well, there's a serious fly in the ointment and we'll have a series on our hands. The Clippers cannot let Memphis nab Game 4, cause that'll simply shift momentum, even going back to Los Angeles, especially since the road team has covered 4 of 6 in this series.
Take the points in this one.
1* CLIPPERS
Matt Rivers
Saturday's comp play is the Clippers-Grizzlies game to stay Under the total.
These teams are definitely no strangers to one another, having played in last May's postseason, and with such familiarity with one another, the baskets just aren't easy to come by.
Thursday night's game at the FedEx Forum managed to hold Under the total, making it 4 of the last 6 games played between the teams that have rewarded the Under backers.
I like the Under one more time on Saturday, as it is hard to overlook the fact the Low has been the play now in 7 of the last 10 overall meetings, and each of the last 5 played in Memphis.
The Grizzlies have been quite defensive-minded, with 10 of their last 13 games dating back to the regular season holding Under.
One more Under won't hurt. Clippers and Grizzlies to make it 6 straight at Memphis on the Low side.
2* L.A. CLIPPERS-MEMPHIS UNDER
Jeff AlexanderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Arizona D-backs -150FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Colorado's Jeff Francis is 0-2 with a 12.60 ERA in his last 3 starts. Arizona's Wade Miley is 2-0 with a 2.77 ERA in 4 starts this season. Miley is also 4-0 with a 3.37 ERA in 5 career starts versus Colorado. Francis is 3-6 on the money line in his last 9 starts versus Arizona. The Rockies are 3-7 in Francis' last 10 starts, 1-4 in his last 5 road starts and 1-7 in his last 8 starts as an underdog. The Diamondbacks are 7-2 in Mileys last 9 starts as a favorite of -110 to -150. Bet Arizona.
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Toronto +140 over N.Y. YANKEESFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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For the first time this season, the Blue Jays are undervalued. Projected as the team to beat in the AL, the Blue Jays have stumbled out of the gate and the oddsmakers (and betting public) have finally abandoned ship. Now we get an opportunity to buy low and that’s usually the best time to step in. C.C. Sabathia has a 3.34 ERA and 1.23 WHIP after his first five starts. It seems like business as usual for Sabathia but it comes with a warning sign in his fastball velocity. No starting pitcher has lost more velocity on his fastball between April 2012 and April 2013 than Sabathia (91.8 mph vs. 89.6 mph). He had off-season surgery to remove a bone spur from his elbow so this drop shouldn't come as a complete surprise. But if Sabathia only has a 90 mph fastball to work with, it will be 3-4 mph lower than his career norm, meaning he'll need to rely completely on location and movement to remain elite. That's a risky proposition and his groundball/fly-ball split of 40%/40% is also a career worse. Sabathia has been tagged for four bombs over his past two starts and will face a Blue Jays team that has gone yard 31 times in 24 games.
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Three years of a near-5.00 ERA and 1.40+ WHIP will keep J.A. Happ’s stock low for the time being but there's something interesting here. Concurrent control and strikeout rate improvement were kept hidden by an abnormal hit percentage jump. xERA of 3.98 last season confirm that he's got skills worth speculating on. Happ has 19 K’s in 22 frames this season to go along with a much-improved 1.14 WHIP. He’s already faced some strong hitting clubs in Kansas City, Baltimore and Boston and has allowed just 16 hits in 22 frames for a BAA of .198. Happ now gets the benefit of facing an injury plagued lineup that will be without starting catcher, Francisco Cervelli. Cervelli joins a long list of Yankees on the disabled list that may soon also include Kevin Youkilis, who was not available for the sixth straight game last night because of lower back tightness and reports are that Youkilis will not be available today either. Undervalued for the first time and expected to lose, the Blue Jays are in a good spot to pull off the upset.
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Pittsburgh +108 over ST. LOUISFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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After losing five of their first six games, the Pirates have the league’s best mark at 12-5 since. Included among those victories were three-game sweeps over both Atlanta and Cincinnati. Over the past 15 games, the Pirates lead the NL with a .274 batting average and a .344 on base %. Current Pirates have had great success against Jake Westbrook with 69 hits in 229 career AB’s against Westbrook for a BA of .314. Westbrook is 1-1 with a 1.25 ERA in three starts but his early skills insist an implosion is forthcoming. Westbrook’s xERA is 5.05. He’s walked 14 batters in 21.2 innings while striking out just eight. In three starts, Westbrook has thrown 327 pitches with 54% of those being out of the strike zone and called balls. Westbrook survives on an elite groundball rate of 63% that induces double plays but with all those walks and hard hit balls, he simply can’t continue to outpitch his xERA by four runs. Jake Westbrook is about to get lit up big time and the Pirates are seeing the ball well right now. This could be the day he implodes.
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A.J. Burnett has been downright dominating this season. He has an elite strikeout rate of 42 K’s in 29 frames, which leads the majors in that category. Burnett also comes in with a .208 oppBA, a 1.14 WHIP and an ERA of 2.79. Burnett’s xERA of 2.52 is even lower than is actual 2.79 ERA and there is nothing fluky about his success. Burnett is getting lots of K’s, he has an elite groundball rate of 58% and a normal strand rate of 77%. Burnett has just one win in five starts but deserves at least four wins and probably five. No pitcher in baseball has been sharper than Burnett. Taking back a tag against Westbrook here offers up some pretty sweet value and hopefully Burnett will get some much deserved justice in the form of a win.
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Baltimore +129 over OAKLANDFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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In the first two games of this series the A’s have managed nine hits and two runs with the two runs scored coming in the first inning of the opener and both runs were unearned. That suggests that Buck Showalter and the Orioles staff have a very good read on the weaknesses of the Athletics’ hitters. Now Chris Tillman gets his shot. Tillman went 9-3 with 2.93 ERA in 86 innings for the O’s last season. Last year, Tillman found his way out of the woods, guided by velocity gains, newfound control and great progress against lefties. Tillman has two very good starts in four tries this year. He’s coming off a 6.2-inning, four-hit, one run gem against the Blue Jays and he also threw a beauty against the Red Sox on April 11th. Tillman’s xERA doesn't buy that he's a sub-4.00 ERA pitcher just yet, but the skills say he's right on the cusp. That said, this one is more about playing against the A’s suddenly lifeless offense with A.J. Griffin on the mound.
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Griffin is a pitcher in trouble. His ERA is somewhat respectable at 4.50 but it’s been all luck and very little skill. Griffin faced three struggling offenses in his first three starts (Seattle, L.A.A and Houston) before running into the Red Sox in his last start. Boston went off for nine hits and eight runs against Griffin in four frames. Griffin has a putrid profile that shows a 27%/32%/42% groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate. That’s serious and tells us that Griffin is not fooling anyone. Balls were hit hard in Griffin’s first three starts but they were hit right at people. It caught up to him in his fourth start and is likely to continue here. In his rookie campaign last season, Griffin put up some nice surface numbers but his under the hood numbers also suggested it was all smoke and mirrors. The films on Griffin have been studied by major-league hitters and his days of quality starts will soon be a thing of the past. Griffin is major fade material, as major leaguers have caught up to him and it says here he will be out of the rotation and back in the minors before the end of June. Huge overlay.
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Carolina +182 over PITTSBURGHFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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OT included. What a season it has been. Playing the most grueling schedule in the history of this league, all playoff positions in the East have been solidified and that includes the Penguins #1 seeding. With playoffs scheduled to start on Tuesday, the only question remaining is who the Penguins will face. Pittsburgh will either face Ottawa, New York Rangers or New York Islanders with the latter two being the most likely. In any case, the Penguins have nothing to play for here. Expect the third and fourth lines of the Pens to get most of the playing time here. The Penguins cannot afford any more injuries and they figure to lack motivation as well.
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The ‘Canes have nothing to play for either but unlike the Penguins, they are packing it in after this game and they have something to prove. Carolina is without question, the best team in the league to miss the playoffs. In fact, this Carolina squad led the NHL in shots on net per game. They possess a wickedly strong offense but the injury to Cam Ward early in the year left them with a major hole in net. The ‘Canes did not receive the quality goaltending it takes to make the post-season but they may not need it here, as Pittsburgh is unlikely to have its gas on the pedal here. With an offense like this one and playing an unmotivated host just looking to stay healthy, this price on the Hurricanes makes them one of the most appealing dogs of the year and we’re not about to miss it.
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DALLAS +120 over DetroitFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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OT included. If you think the Stars are going to be pushovers tonight, you’re dead wrong. Dallas is not going to the playoffs but they have huge motivation to bring this hated rival down with them. With a chance to knock the Red Wings out of participating in the post-season for the first time in 20 years, the Stars figure to play their hearts out in an attempt to do just that. In a season with no satisfaction, Dallas will get plenty of satisfaction if they can make life miserable for the Red Wings. Added motivation also comes from the Red Wings dressing room in that some of Detroit’s players have “vowed” that missing the playoffs won't happen on their watch. That’s not the right thing to say. Detroit should have said, “Dallas is a tough team and we’re going to have to be at our best to defeat them”, or something along those lines.
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The interesting thing here is that Detroit needs just one point to secure a playoff spot so they will be playing for that one point should the game be tied late. Once the third period ends and Detroit is tied, OT will be just a formality and completely anti-climactic. Additionally, the Red Wings have put themselves in this position by losing far too many games to teams they used to beat with regularity. Against Nashville at home on Thursday in a must win situation, Detroit fell behind 1-0 and 2-1 against the league’s worst offense before rallying. Detroit also took too many penalties in that important game. That should not happen. Against Phoenix in that 4-0 win this past week, Detroit was outshot 34-22 and they also have a recent loss against Calgary. Many believe the Red Wings will seal their own fate with a win here against a beatable team. We’re not buying that for a second. Sports history is lined with teams that had to win in the final game of the regular season to make the playoffs but failed to do so because the opposition does not want to allow that to happen on “their watch”. Dallas plays like it’s the seventh game of the Stanley Cup Finals here.