Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday April, 28

Marc Lawrence

Tampa Bay Rays at Texas Rangers
Prediction: Texas Rangers

When the Rangers send Colby Lewis to the mound against the Rays in Arlington tonight Texas will do so knowing he is 9-5 in his career team starts during the opening month of April, including 4-1 his last five with a 2.09 ERA. Lewis, who is 2-1 with a 0.47 ERA in his three career team starts against Tampa Bay, is also in outstanding KW form with 24 strikeouts and only 1 walk this campaign. Sty at home with the Rangers here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Texas.

John Ryan

Detroit Tigers at New York Yankees
Prediction: New York Yankees

If the Yankees can attack one of the best starters in baseball, then they should not have a problem with today?s Detroit starter Smiley. The simulator shows a high probability that the Yankees will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 187-79 for 70% winners making 68 units per one unit wagered since 1997. Play against all dogs with a money line of +100 or higher and is a struggling AL offensive team scoring <=4.2 runs per game and with an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game and now facing a team with a good bullpen sporting a ERA<=3.75. The act of the matter is, the Detroit pen was used heavily last night in their late inning collapse and loss. Verlander went just 6 innings allowing 4 ER, and then Dotel, Coke, Benoit, and Villarreal were all used. Yankee starter Garcia has struggled, but he is a solid 14-2 (+12.5 Units) against the money line facing teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game over the last three seasons. Starters like Garcia are coined ?pitch to contact? types and have the added confidence knowing they one of the best offenses backing them up. Yankees have been a stellar 47-16 (+25.7 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons. Temps will be unseasonably cold in the Bronx, but I do not see this being a factor with game time at 4:05 PM ET. Take the Yankees

Steve Merril

Brewers vs. Cardinals
Play: Over 7.5

St. Louis looks to explode again on offense when they continue their series with Milwaukee on Saturday afternoon. They won't need many runs with the way Kyle Lohse is pitching so far. He's 3-0 with a 0.99 ERA in four starts striking out 16 while walking two. But Lohse hasn't been tested much facing the Marlins, Pirates, and Reds twice. He has had a rough history against the Brewers going 4-9 with a 4.95 ERA in 18 career starts against them. Ryan Braun (9-29), Alex Gonzalez (4-6), Jonathan Lucroy (3-8), Nyjer Morgan (3-9) and Aramis Ramirez (7-17) all hit the Cardinals’ starter well. Milwaukee is hitting right around .250 in their last eight games. Marco Estrada pitched well in his first start of the season although he only went five innings giving up 1 run and two hits. Estrada has struggled to go deep in games which means a Brewers’ bullpen with an ERA right around 5.00 will be coming into play. The Cardinals are scoring over 6 runs per game at home and they are hitting over .280 as a unit. They are putting up 5.6 runs per game in the daytime and they are playing better as of late. These two teams have gone Over the total in three of their last four games with at least one team scoring 5 runs in each game. We recommend playing this game Over the Total.

Guillermo Sanchez Perez

Mariners @ Blue Jays
PICK: Mariners +1.5

The Seattle Mariners and Toronto Blue Jays face each other on Saturday, both teams riding four game streaks. The Mariners have turned things around after a poor start to the season, winning their last four games in dramatic fashion, including a 10th inning comeback win in Toronto on Friday. The Blue Jays on the other hand have been on a four game losing streak, and in Friday's loss to the Mariners, Jays slugger Jose Bautista went 0-4, now hitting a terrible .184 on the season.

The Jays will turn to former Mariners right-hander Brandon Morrow, who has had a solid start to the season. He has also pitched well against his former team, going 2-0 with a 2.77 ERA as a starter against the Mariners in 2011.

The Mariners will counter with the 37 year old right-hander Kevin Millwood, who got roughed up in his last start, and has yet to win this season. On paper this sounds like quite a pitching mismatch, and this allows a value play on Seattle on the run line.

While Millwood has struggled of late, the veteran hurler is facing a Blue Jays lineup that isn't exactly instilling fear in anyone right now. The way the Jays bullpen has been playing lately, Seattle will have a chance to get back into the game, even if the Jays get out to a quick start, and that's a big if!

The Mariners lineup is full of confidence right now, with several players swinging a hot bat. Michael Saunders homered twice, and the Canadian drove in five runs on Friday. Saunders is on fire with nine RBIs in his last six games.

Play Seattle as the underdog here on the run line.

Rob Vinciletti

Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins
Play: Miami Marlins

The Marlins will look to snap their losing stream and Qualify in a nice system that has won 10 of the last 12 times and plays on home teams off a home favored loss by 5 or more runs and scored 2 or less runs on 4 or less hits. vs an opponent off a road dog win by 5 or more runs with no errors and 10 or more men left on base. Arizona has dropped 3 of 4 as a road dog from +100 to +125 and are hitting .227 on the road thus far. Arizona has I. Kennedy going and he was average in allowing 5 runs in 8 innings here in his only start. The Marlins counter with A. Sanchez and he is 7-2 in home April starts and 4-1 vs Arizona. Look for the Marlins to snap their 6 game losing streak tonight.

Jack Jones

Oklahoma City Thunder -7.5

The Oklahoma City Thunder are the real deal this season. I expect them to make easy work of the Dallas Mavericks in Game 1 Saturday.

OKC is well-rested after packing it in these last few games with nothing to play for. This team is coming off a loss, which certainly works to their benefit over the past few seasons.

The Mavericks are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The Thunder are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games playing on 2 days rest. The Thunder are 58-27-1 ATS in their last 86 games following a S.U. loss. Bet Oklahoma City Saturday.

Dave Cokin

Detroit Tigers vs New York Yankees
Pick: Detroit Tigers

The Tigers are having a very bad week, but here's a chance for the Bengals to get healthy. Freddy Garcia is getting lit up and I'm impressed with rookie southpaw Drew Smyly. The Tigers are worth a play here as road dogs.

Jim Feist

Oakland Athletics vs Baltimore Orioles
Pick: Baltimore Orioles

Oakland is a long way from home, 3,000 miles, and the Athletics are 2-5 in their last 7 road games vs. a left-handed starter. They face Baltimore southpaw Wei-Yin Chen, who has a 2.60 ERA and they've never seen him before. The Orioles are 9-3 in their last 12 home games vs. a right-handed starter and 12-5 in their last 17 home games. Play the Orioles!

JR O'Donnell

Philadelphia +9

Saturday's Early Call NBA Members Rocket here on the 35-31 Sixers + 9 as this 1:05 Tip Power Play goes to the Doug Collins lead boys who will play hard vs the 50-16 Bulls....... These banged up Bulls went 8 out 13 down the stretch and all reports that we have ....have All World D Rose at 60% at best .... Bulls allow 88 ppg and the Sixers check in high on D with a smooth top 10 defense .. These Chi checks in @ 17-15-1 ATS @ home.. We have this Power Rated @ Chi Bulls - 5.21 points

SPORTS WAGERS

Seattle +162 over TORONTO

The Blue Jays have dropped four and have hit .211 over that span while being outscored 19-8. Brandon Morrow has never lived up to expectations. He has outstanding stuff but his focus and mental toughness remains in question. Morrow is easily rattled and he’s been horrible at home for two years running. Known as a strikeout pitcher, Morrow has just 12 strikeouts this season in 27 frames. The Jays are 0-2 in his two home starts against Baltimore and Tampa Bay in which he’s surrendered 14 hits, five jacks and 10 runs in 13 innings. In those 13 home frames, he’s walked four and struck out six. Morrow has an ERA of 3.71 and that’s a result of an unsustainable 83% strand rate. This is a fragile pitcher throwing for a fragile team. Meanwhile, the Mariners have won four straight including a three-game sweep in Detroit. They rallied from two down in the ninth last night to tie it and scored four in the 10th to put it away. The M’s have scored 30 runs during this current streak. Kevin Millwood has a 7.04 ERA. He’s way past his prime but Millwood's 4.17 xERA says that he hasn't been nearly as bad as his 7.04 ERA over 15 IP suggests. The price and current form dictates the play and it’s not in the Jays favor. Play: Seattle +162 (Risking 2 units).

Boston +106 over CHICAGO

The Red Sox are seeing beach balls right now. They’re coming off back-to-back 10 run outbursts at U.S. Cellular Field and have belted 11 bombs over their past five games while batting .363. The reason Boston is being offered a tag here is because Jon Lester’s ERA is 6.00 while Jake Peavy’s ERA is 1.88. There are corrections forthcoming in both of those ERA’s and chances are great that the corrections begin here. Lester is still among the elite pitchers in the game. His high ERA is the result of one horrendous outing in Texas in which he allowed eight runs in two innings. In his first two starts of the year in Detroit and Toronto, he allowed just nine hits in 15 innings. Lester entered 2012 having compiled four consecutive seasons of sub-3.50 ERA with skills that support the performance. He’s still one of the premier pitchers in the league and one bad outing doesn’t change that. Jake Peavy has been lights out with four walks and 26 K’s in 29 frames. He’s 3-0, the South Side is 4-0 in his starts and he has a BAA of .172. Great numbers indeed but also unsustainable one's and that allows us to step in and take back a tag with the hottest offense in the game with one of the best lefties in the game. Play: Boston +106 (Risking 2 units).

Detroit +106 over N.Y. YANKEES

If Freddy Garcia were pitching for any other team other than the Yankees, there is no chance he would be favored over the Tigers here. Garcia has a pair of brutal starts in three tries this year and faces a dangerous and surging Detroit team that owns a .935 OPS in their last seven games. Had Michael Pineda not been injured, Garcia would be out of a job and still might be once Andy Pettitte joins the club. Garcia has allowed 20 hits in 12.2 innings for a BAA of .385. He's lost velocity each of the past three years, the quality starts are dwindling and line-drive % is creeping up. Those are signs that this is a guy to avoid when laying a price. Drew Smyly is a name that a lot of folks are going to know how to spell real soon. Smyly was a second round pick in the '10 draft and earned Detroit's Minor League Pitcher of the Year award in his first pro season in '11. In two starts and one early relief appearance, he’s struck out 15 batters in 16 frames with a strong 51% groundball rate. It’s no fluke either. Smyly has a good repertoire and mixes speeds like a veteran. His fastball velocity is fine for a lefty at 87-93 mph and it shows excellent movement. The Yanks have never seen this promising rookie and that too should work in our favor. Garcia favored here is a marketplace misconception. Play: Detroit +106 (Risking 2 units).

SPORTS WAGERS

New York +8½ over MIAMI

Ever since Mike D’Antoni stepped down, the Knicks have been a serious factor. The biggest difference in this team the last few weeks is that Mike Woodson is holding them accountable on defense. Tyson Chandler is the leader in that department. He defends, he dives for loose balls, he hustles, he takes charges, he rebounds and he covers up a lot of mistakes. Chandler has helped transform New York's defense from a mediocre unit to one of the top five in the NBA. For Miami, anything but a championship would be considered a failure. This first round series is one that could see them having to come from behind because its weakness is defending the triple and that’s one of the Knicks’ strengths. All the pressure is on Miami and some are suggesting that the regular season was just a dress rehearsal for them. This is the moment they’ve been waiting for. That’s quite possible but as we’ve learned from the past, there is no off/on switch in sports. The Knicks are in good form and they’re confident. They’ll come into this series loose and with mild expectations. Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh both have nagging injuries and with 8½-points on our side and with a chance to steal game 1, we’ll gladly step in and play against a team that is always overpriced. Play: New York +8½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).

SERIES New York +681 over MIAMI

There’s a term used in sports betting that is often used in boxing and it’s called a throwaway bet. It refers to a bet that can’t win unless the unthinkable happens and it was applied to Buster Douglas when he beat Mike Tyson on that fateful night many, many moons ago. We’ll throw away a bet here because the unthinkable could happen again. Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh are both a single play away from being out for the series. The Heat are vulnerable in a few areas and if LeBron James starts to miss some shots, he could get gun shy real fast. He’s been a complete bust in the biggest games of his NBA career and that’s a mental problem that rear its ugly head again, especially of his pals are struggling too. The Knicks are dangerous with an abundance of shooters and now they’re playing great defense. We don’t expect the Knicks to win but it also wouldn’t surprise us if they did, as this series could be scary close and with a take-back of nearly 7-1, it’s worth “throwing away”. Play: New York +681 (Risking 1 unit).

SPORTS WAGERS

Los Angeles +144 over ST. LOUIS

The price here, just like the series price, is too generous to pass up on. This is the NHL’s two stingiest teams and as a result, the first goal will be gigantic in each game. These two mirror each other in so many ways. Both coaches like a gritty, physical style of play that punishes opponents and makes them pay for every inch of ice. Heading into this series, both clubs are playing with confidence. Both have outstanding goaltending while both allowed a total of eight goals against in the first round over five games. Frankly, it’s near impossible to predict which team will score first or which team will score in OT if it should get to that. What we do anticipate is that every game will be close and with that in mind, we’ll play the value where offered and it is in abundance here. Play: Los Angeles +144 (Risking 2 units).

SERIES Los Angeles +152 over ST. LOUIS

Line dictates the play here. The Blues are a strong team and showed that strength by neatly disposing of the Sharks in opening round. However, these Kings are not the playoff-choking Sharkies. Los Angeles not only eliminated the top team in the West, they did it in five games with balanced scoring, outstanding goaltending, a strong defense and some true grit. Those are all the characteristics of a championship team and the Kings could certainly be one this season. Of course, the Blue Notes have many of those same traits but they’re not the club taking back +152. This series figures to be close. The last two regular-season encounters between the two might have provided a glimpse of things to come with the Blues beating the Kings 1-0 on Feb. 3 and the Kings returning the favor, 1-0 in a shootout, March 22. The Kings are an 8-seed and that’s likely the reason for this generous offer. However, L.A isn’t your typical eighth seed, as they were leading the Pacific Division before slipping from third to eighth in the conference in the regular season's final days and with many of its players playing their best hockey of the season, they’re peaking at the right time. Win or lose, we’re taking back a price that shouldn’t be offered here with a very capable and dangerous squad. Play: Los Angeles +152 (Risking 2 units).

JEFF BENTON

I will back the host Miami Heat (-8') to open their postseason with the blowout win and cover over the New York Knicks.

The Big Three (Wade, James, and Bosh) will try one more time to get that championship ring, and I expect them to set the tone early and often against a Knicks team they had little problem defeating this season.

In three meetings this year, Miami was 3-0 SU (2-1 ATS), winning by margins of eight, 14 and 10 points.

Overall Miami has won eight of the 10 against New York, covering six times.

Yes, the Knicks are capable of making this game/series semi-interesting, but with Miami on a quest for a title, I don't think this opening contest is going to be close come the final buzzer.

I smell double-digit win and cover for the Heat this afternoon.

4♦ MIAMI

MATT RIVERS

Saturday NBA free play for you will be to take the underdog Dallas Mavericks plus the points as they begin their quest to repeat as NBA champions.

Don't expect the Mavericks to get the repeat, but do expect them to be a tough out for the #2 seeded Thunder.

Oklahoma City was ousted in five games last May by Dallas in the playoffs, and they are certainly looking for some redemption. It won't be easy - at least not in this game! - because while the Thunder did win three of the four games straight up, they failed to cover in three of those four.

The underdog covered ALL four series meetings between the teams this year, and is 17-4-1 against the spread the last 22 times the teams have met.

Also consider the road team is 24-8-2 the last 34 series meetings.

Last I checked, the Mavs were both the road team and the underdog.

Grab the points and stick with the established series trends, as Oklahoma City escapes with the win but not the cover.

3♦ DALLAS

Saturday baseball free play is to take the Tigers-Yankees game to go Over the posted total.

If Justin Verlander and Ivan Nova could not hold the bats in check last night, rookie Drew Smyly and Freddy Garcia sure as hell ain't gonna hold the bats down either!

With last night's Over, Detroit has now gone Over the total in four in a row, and six of their last eight, while New York sports a 6-2-1 Over run for their last nine contests.

Series numbers show four of the last six meetings between the teams having eclipsed the posted price, and with Freddy Garcia's ERA hovering near 10...that's right 10! for the season, I just don't see how these teams don't combine for another high-scoring affair this afternoon in the Bronx.

The Yankees have played four in a row at home Over the total. Make that five in a row after this one is all said and done.

4♦ OVER