CHUCK O'BRIEN
On the heels of last night's free winner on the Atlanta Braves on the Run Line against the visiting Pittsburgh Pirates, I'm now on a 20-6 run with complimentary releases. Today I am laying the chalk with the Los Angeles Angels over the Cleveland Indians, as I expect the Halos to snap their five-game losing streak.
Don't sweat the pitchers in this game, as I'm not going to worry about Dan Haren and Jeanmar Gomez in this one. I'm more about the Angels here, as a team, and the fact it needs to get it together for once and start winning. In a word, it's getting ridiculous for the Angels (6-14), who are tied with the second-worst record in Major League Baseball.
The Angels are 2-8 on the road and hold the same record in their last 10 games. And yes, Cleveland is No. 1 in the Central Division, but its success has come on the road. The Indians, 10-8 on the year, is 7-2 on the highway, while they boast a 3-6 home mark.
Torii Hunter stirred it up a little at the plate last night, with two hits, including his first home run of the season. Now it's time for Albert Pujols to come alive., They brought him in to do big things, and it's about time he prove his worth.
Look for a big change today, as the Angels finally put together a big offensive game.
2♦ L.A. ANGELS
DOM CHAMBERS
For my free selection, let’s take a look at the Detroit Tigers to bounce back and beat the New York Yankees.
The Tigers are starting rookie Drew Smyly, who has been very sharp this season. In his three starts, he has not given up more than one run in any game. His ERA is 1.12 and his WHIP is 1.375.
His counterpart for the Yankees has not been sharp this season. Freddy Garcia has an ERA of 9.74 and is 0-1 in three starts. The Yankees are 2-1 in his starts, but that’s because New York has provided the offense to offset his lack of pitching. Garcia has not made it out of the sixth inning before getting rouged up and in his last start, he lasted only 1 1/3 innings as the Red Sox posted five runs. That was the infamous rally game that the Yankees came back from 9 runs down to win. Garcia was the reason they were down nine runs to start with.
Against Smyly, the Yankees will not be able to dig out of such a big hole again.
New York won the opener, and the Tigers gave the game as the winning run scored in the bottom of the ninth off a passed ball.
The Yankees will not be given such gifts today.
The Tiger bats should rough up Garcia and that will be enough for Smyly to get the win.
Take the Tigers.
2♦ TIGERS
CHRIS JORDAN
Last night my free winner took us to my second-favorite baseball stadium in the bigs, on 161st Street in the Bronx, Yankee Stadium. And not only did I give you the New York Yankees, I also said to list Detroit's Justin Verlander. That turned out to be a winner. Tonight I'm back in Yankee Stadium, and this time I want you playing the Detroit Tigers.
Another due theory has to come into effect at some point, and I'm thinking this is the right spot for the Tigers to snap a five-game losing streak to stun the Bombers.
I know the Delmon Young distraction didn't necessarily come at the right time, but even more reason to believe this team will come together and focus on the task at hand. I'm not going to list either pitcher, but I'm not going to lie, I like Drew Smyly much better than I do Freddy Garcia.
Detroit's 22-year-old left-hander has not allowed more than one run in any of his first three major-league starts. On the other hand, the Yankees' veteran has allowed at least four runs in all three of his starts and was the starting pitcher in last week's Boston marathon, which saw the Red Sox tag Garcia for five runs and seven hits in 1-2/3 innings at Fenway Park. He's 0-1 with a 9.75 ERA.
But forget about all that, look at last night's game, as the Tigers came real close to winning, and that was with their ace on the hill. The Yankees won in walk-off fashion thanks to a wild pitch in the bottom of the ninth.
Detroit might jump all over Garcia early on here, there's no telling. But I do like the Tigers to win this one big.
3♦ DETROIT
CRAIG DAVIS
Today's free play is on the Detroit Tigers to exact some revenge on the NY Yankees with Drew Smyly on the bump vs. the awful Freddy Garcia. Honestly, there's not much to write here because this game is a complete mismatch with Freddy Garcia on the mound.
He's seriously one of the worst pitchers in all of baseball and it's a shame for the Yankees they have to use him. The only other pitcher who might be worse is Phil Hughes... who also starts for the Yankees. It's amazing they have a winning record with two of five starters as bad as those.
I don't even really need to discuss Drew Smyly because his ERA speaks volumes about how good he has pitched so far this year... regardless of his record. All he needs to do is show up, pitch decent, and the Tigers should win by a few... at the very least.
Again, to reiterate, Freddy Garcia stinks and will likely only last through the 4th inning before the Tigers flip the lineup and have pummeled him for at least five runs. All Tigers today boys... take the Tigers as your free play of the day.
3♦ DETROIT
SCOTT DELANEY
Last night's free winner was laying cheap road chalk with the Boston Red Sox, who continued their series on the South Side of Chicago against the White Sox, and followed Thursday's series-opening blowout win, with another victory last night. Tonight I want you playing the White Sox, returning the favor as the cheap chalk.
Don't worry about listing either pitcher, even though it's a plus we have Jake Peavy on the bump, as I think the due theory is in effect with this one, and we'll see the Red Sox's five-game win streak come to an end.
This hitting cannot keep up, believe me. There has to be a stopper somewhere along the way, or the Red Sox simply stop hitting the ball like this.
On the flipside, Chicago's losing streak is at four games after the Athletics took two of three from them in Oakland, but I think the South Siders have the advantage in today's pitching matchup. I still won't be swayed to insist on listing pitchers, because I'm not limiting myself to whose on the hill. No matter what, I still think the White Sox are rolling in this game.
After all, Chicago seems to like Saturdays, as it's 16-5 on Saturdays dating back to last season, and in contrast, the Red Sox are mired in a 1-5 slide on Saturdays. Also, Boston is on losing streaks of 3-9 as an underdog and 2-6 when installed as the road pup. Play the Pale Hose in this one.
3♦ CHICAGO WHITE SOX
Steve Janus
Dallas Mavericks +7½
As bad as the Mavericks have been down the stretch, I think a lot of people are overlooking this team. They still have one of the best players in the NBA in Dirk Nowitzki, and when he gets it going he is pretty much unstoppable. I'm not saying I think Dallas will go on the road and steal Game 1, but I expect them to keep this game close right down to the final minutes.
Dallas went just 1-3 against the Oklahoma City in the regular season. Only one of those losses came by more than 7-points. In fact, the Thunder won their two home games in the series by a combined six points. I wouldn't be surprised at all if Dallas preferred to play the Thunder over the Lakers, as the Mavericks don't have the size inside to matchup with LA.
Dallas is 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 playoff games as an underdog, 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 (2012 regular season), and 10-1 ATS in road games versus explosive offensive teams - scoring 103+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
Jimmy Boyd
San Francisco Giants -160
Lincecum looked more like himself last time out, allowing just 1 run on 4 hits in a 6-1 victory over the Mets. I expect him to build on that effort here against a team he has dominated.
The mighty righty is 9-4 (13-5 on the ML) with an ERA of 1.96 in 18 career starts versus San Diego. He's won each of his last 3 and 5 of his last 6 starts against the Padres, giving up no more than 1 earned run in each of those 5 victories. The Giants are 9-2 in their last 11 games as a home favorite and 38-13 in their last 51 games as a home favorite of -151 to -200. Also, they've won 6 of their last 8 against the Padres. Take San Francisco.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Kansas City -119 over MINNESOTA: (ADDED) The Twins have been horrible in day games this year, going just 1-6 and they have been outscored by 2.3 rpg in those games. Today they look for Jason Marquis to get their 2nd day win of the year, but it will not be easy as he has been bad so far, with a 7.15 ERA and a 1.76 WHIP in his 2 starts. Making matters worse for him is the fact that the Royals bats have waken up, averaging 6.3 rpg in their last 3 games and those numbers should continue vs a Minnesota team that has an ERA of 6.20 at home this year. Minnesota has put up 6 runs in each of their last 2 games and they hit .293 at home, but they will take on a tough pitcher in Bruce Chen today. Chen has has some bad luck as he has a 2.52 ERA and a very good 0.92 WHIP, but he is 0-2 in his 4 starts, while the royals are 0-4 in those starts. The Royals have averaged just 1.5 rpg in his starts, but that should change today vs this bad twins staff that has a 7.3 ERA in their last 5 starts overall and a 6.20 ERA at home on the year. Oh yeah the Minnesota starters have an ERA of 9.49 in their last 5 games. Getting away from home has really helped this Royals team as they are starting to play like they were supposed to this year. They have dug themselves a big hole, but with the teams ahead of them struggling there is still time and winning games like this are a must. Look for Chen to get his first win of the year are the Royals run their win streak to 4 games.
3 UNIT PLAYS
ST LOUIS -145 over Milwaukee: The Cards flexed their muscles again last night with with a 13-1 win and today they sent their top hurler out to face the Brewers. Kyle Loshe is 3-0 with a skinny 0.99 ERA in his 4 starts, plus a nice and tidy 0.66 WHIP as well. Kyle has gone just 1-3 with a 3.90 ERA in his last 5 starts vs the Brewers, but in 2 regular season starts vs them here last year he was 1-1 with an 0.64 ERA. Today he will take on a team that has struggled offensively on the road this year. The Brewers come in having hit just .219 and have scored just 3.8 rpg on the road this year, while in their last 6 away from home they have averaged just 2.7 rpg. The Cardinal offense really hasn't had offensive problems this year. The Cardinals have hardly missed Pujols at all and now they have John Jay back in the lineup. They are hitting a solid .295 at home and have scored 7 rpg at Busch, while overall they have scored 5.2 rpg and hit .272. Today they take a crack at Marco Estrada who is making just his 2nd start of the year after spending some time in the pen. He is 0-0 with a 2.25 overall and in his lone start he allowed 1 ER in 5 innings vs Colorado. His numbers are solid, but this Cards offense is much better and will put more than enough runs on the board vs him to get the win here.
CINCINNATI -1.5 (+115) Over Houston: Johnny Cueto is finally pitching like an Ace, as he comes in with a 2-0 mark and a 1.75 ERA (1.11 WHIP) in his 4 starts this year. At home the Reds are 2-0 in his starts and have outscored their opponents 2.5 rpg in his home starts. The Astros have lost all three of Lucas Harrell's road starts this year and he has a 5.74 ERA in those starts. Both offenses have been very good of late, but te Houston offense can be slowed by Cueto, while Lucas will not be able to hold down this Cincinnati offense that plays much better at home than on the road. The reds also have the much better back end of the pen with Marshall and Chapman, so if the Reds are up by 2 late they should be able to hold it. All three of Harrell's road starts have been decided by 1 run each, but today will be different as the Reds get some payback behind their Ace.
PHILADELPHIA -140 over Chicago: Interesting stat here. I know the theory that teams don't play well in their first game back off a long road trip and i should have heeded that angle last night when i had the Phils on the RL over these Cubbies, but I didn't and Philly lost the game after their long trip. Teams are now 3-4 off a 9+ game trip, but the interesting thing is that they do seem to get back on track in their 2nd game back, going 5-1. Not only should the Phils be more focused due to this being their second game back, but they should also be in full desperation mode to finish the last 3 in this series strong, especially knowing that they have a 6 game trip to Atlanta and Washington on deck. The Phils offense took a step back last night, but I look for the to get going vs Wells tonight. Randy has just 1 start on the year and he has a 3.60 ERA and a 2.20 WHIP in that start. In his only start here (last year) he allowed 3 ER on 3 hits and 2 walks in just 2.1 innings of work. Joe Blanton has not been bad this year, despite his 1-2 mark and 4.00 ERA. He does have a decent WHIP (1.33) and in 4 career starts vs the Cubs he has an 0-0- mark with a 3.04 ERA, while he has a 2.57 ERA in 2 starts vs them here. The Cubs offense is not great and the Phils offense should bounce back strong here and help them to a win they most desperately need.
Colorado/ NY Mets Over 9.5: Normally when pitchers face a team that has never seen them the Advantage goes to the hurler, but that didn't happen last night as both starters allowed a combing 8 runs in just 4 innings of work. Then two shaky pens came in and allowed the other 19 runs in the game. Tonight we have again two starters that have never faced these teams, but it shouldn't matter again vs these two offenses. The Mets can't score a lick at home, but get them out on the road and they have been solid, averaging 5.1 rpg and hitting .286. The Mets have also hit .310 and have scored 6.2 rp/9 off right-handed pitching on the road. The Rockies are the opposite, as they don't score nearly as much on the road as at home. Colorado averages 3.2 rpg on the road, but at home they hit .303 and have put up 6.8 rpg. The Mets have a 7.94 pen ERA on the road, while Colorado has a 6.28 pen ERA in their last 5 games. Dillion Gee has a 5.21 ERA on the year , while Guillermo Moscoso will be making his first start of the year, so we could see a lot of pen work here. Met road games have averaged 12.6 rpg, while Rockie home games have averaged 12.8 rpg. I can see this one hitting at least 13 as well.
2 UNIT PLAYS
LA Angels/ Cleveland Under 8: The Cleveland offense has been pathetic at home this year, as they have averaged just 3.44 rpg and have hit just .210 at Progressive Field thus far. It may not get better today vs Dan Haren, who has a 1.73 ERA in his last 5 meetings with the Tribe. Jeanmar Gomez has a solid 1.93 ERA in his 2 starts so far and he should be able to keep that gpoing vs a slumping LA offense that comes in hitting just .185 and scoring just 1.8 rpg in their last 5 games. Niether offense should have a good time in this one as we see no more than 6 here.
Detroit/ NY Yanks Over 10.5: The Tigers were struggling to score, but a trip to Yankee Stadium helped them out last night, as they collected 13 hits and put up 6 runs in the game. Today they face Freddy Garcia, who has a 9.75 ERA in his 3 starts so far. Drew Smyly has been tough, with a 1.12 ERA in his 3 starts, but he should struggle today vs the Yanks offense in their own park. The Yanks have hit .293 and have score 5.9 rpg in their own park this year, with their home games averaging 10.9 rpg. Both offenses should have a good showing in this one.
Atlanta/ Pittsburgh over 7.5: Pittsburgh doesn't score much, but they should have som good success vs the Braves worst starter. Randal Delgado has a 5.74 ERA on the year with his games averaging 10.3 rpg, while his lone home start has put up 12 runs. The Braves bats have been hot at home, as they have averaged 7 rpg and have hit ..278 at Turner so far this year. They will be facing Erik Bedard, who does have a 2.63 ERA on the year. Still I feel that Atlanta will get their fair share of runs, while Pittsburgh will tag Delgado for a few as well. Look for around 9 in this one.
Vegas Experts
Dallas at Oklahoma City
Play: Dallas
Too many points here as the Mavericks have all the makings of a classic underdog laying in the weeds. They went 3-1 ATS vs. the Thunder during the regular season and they are 7-1 ATS their last eight visits to Oklahoma City. Dallas finished last year's championship run by going 17-4 ATS their last 21 games and OKC curiously closed the regular season by going 4-6 ATS their final 10 games at home. Take the dog.
NHL Predictions
Los Angeles Kings +145
It was no fluke that the 8th seed Kings beat the 1st seeded Canucks in 5 games in the first round. Darryl Sutter has had this Los Angeles team playing well ever since around the trade deadline. Jonathan Quick is one of the best goalies in the NHL and the Blues saw that first hand this season. The Kings took 3 of the 4 meetings between these two teams this season, and Quick allowed just 1 goal against in those three starts with a .989 SV%. In the first round Quick allowed just 8 goals against over the 5 games, and went a perfect 3-0 on the road. The Blues were also impressive winning 4 straight after dropping the first game of the series in overtime to the Sharks. Brian Elliott has also been sensational this season and we can most likely expect a low scoring, tight checking game with goals hard to come by. These two teams match up very well and because I think this will be a one goal game either way I like the underdog price we're getting on Los Angeles to win. Take the Kings to stay undefeated on the road this postseason tonight.
WUNDERDOG
Game: Dallas at Oklahoma City
Pick: Oklahoma City -7.5
Dallas begins defense of their NBA Championship from a year ago by facing the Oklahoma City Thunder. You can bet the Thunder will be ready to exercise some demons here as they lost to the Mavs last year four games to one to get eliminated from the playoffs without much of a fight. Oklahoma City was very good last year, but simply did not have the experience to get over the top. Things should be different this year as the Mavs are not as good and the Thunder are much better, finishing 47-19 and earning the #2 seed in the West. Dallas barely made the playoffs finishing 36-30, the same record as Utah as they were the last two in. The Mavs have had a lot of problems with very good teams finishing up at 1-6 ATS vs teams over .600. The Thunder are right where they have been their best, after a loss, where they are now 58-27-1 ATS. Big revenge and an even bigger statement game. Play on Oklahoma City.
Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons
Orlando Magic +9
This opening line is inflated due to Indiana's Hot 8-2 run to close the regular season, and the fact that the face (or maybe temporary face) of the Orlando franchise in Dwight Howard is gone for the playoffs, Olympics and possibly the start of next season. The lines-makers have made this such a huge line to entice the public to get behind the red hot pacers, however we see right through this game of can and mouse. This is a new season, the Magic have put Howard behind them and have actually taken 8/10 straight up over the Pacers, including both games @ Indiana this season (both games @ Indiana Orlando were only 5- and 3-point dogs).
When comparing 3-point shots in correlation to all FG attempts, 34.6% of Orlando's shots come from behind the arc, while Indiana only takes 19.58% of their shots from downtown. Orlando has a platoon of 3-point shooters and finished third in the league going 37.5% from behind the 3-point stripe.
With a potent 3-point shooting club like the Magic, take the inflated points, roll to the easy victory and back the Magic.
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Oklahoma City/ Dallas Over 193.5: Dallas has been bad defensively down the stretch as they have allowed 100 ppg in their last 7 non-OT games. The Mavs allow 96.8 ppg on the road this year, while in their last 6 away from home (regulation) they have allowed 97.1 ppg. The Thunder are one of the better offensive teams in the league, as the average 103.1 ppg overall, while at home they have put up 106 ppg on 49% shooting. The Thunder, though, have been inconsistent on defense, as they have allowed 96.9 ppg overall, 96.3 ppg and 103.6 ppg in their last 5 games. That average defensive play should allow a Dallas offense that has put up 101.7 ppg in their last 7 non-OT games, to put at least somewhere in the mid 90's here. Mid 90's from Dallas would be great, cause I expect the Thunder to easily crack the century mark here. This should be a wide open fun game with plenty of scoring as this game hits the 200 point mark.
3 UNIT PLAY
Miami/ New York Under 187: Thanks to some strong defensive play the Under is now 21-5 in Miami's last 26 home games. The Heat have allowed a mere 89.5 ppg at home this year and while their offense has struggled down the stretch, due to resting starter starters, their defense has not struggled as they have allowed just 85 ppg in their last 9 games overall and just 80 ppg in their last 5 at home. They have been resting starters of late and it has resulted in them scoring just 80 ppg in their last 5 games. The Knicks have won 18 of their last 24 and it started with defense, as they have allowed just 91.3 ppg over that stretch, while the Knicks have allowed this Miami team just 93.6 ppg in the last 5 meetings, which were all Unders. Both teams hve been playing very good defense of late and this year year as a whole and that has me not expecting more than 180 in this one.
2 UNIT PLAYS
OKLAHOMA CITY -7.5 over Dallas: Gotta expect the Thunder to come out and make a statement vs the team that knocked them out of last years playoffs. Last year’s experience was invaluable for OKC and now this young team is ready to dominate an erratic Mavs squad that ended the season losing four of its final six contests, allowing a whopping 106.3 PPG (47% FG, 41.4% threes) during this slump. This season’s series is 3-1 in favor of Oklahoma City, which is clearly the more consistent and deeper team in this matchup. The Thunder also have the league’s top scorer in SF Kevin Durant (28.0 PPG), and PG Russell Westbrook has matured greatly since his poor 2011 West Finals performance (36% FG, 20% threes, 4.8 TOPG). Westbrook has pumped in 23.6 PPG on 46% FG clip this season, including 22.8 PPG against Dallas. Oklahoma City is much younger and more determined after an amazing season and should start the series off with a nice DD win.
Philadelphia/ Chicago Under 175.5: Both of these teams are very defensive minded team and they don't look to run that much either. The Bulls come in having allowed just 87.8 ppg on 41.8% shooting at home this year, plus down the stretch they have been even tougher, allowing just 79.2 ppg on 37.2% shooting in their last 5 games. Now that's playing some defense. The Sixers have played some higher scoring games down nthe stretch, but that is not their game. They do come in having allowed 89.4 ppg overall and 93 ppg on the road and they know that their only chance in this series is to just grind out the game and win it with their defense. Not sure they can win it, but they should be able to slow it down. Too much defense in this game to think that it can reach 176. This one might not make the 170's.
Dave Price
Texas Rangers -160
Texas has the edge here with Lewis on the hill. He's 2-0 (3-1 on the money line) with an ERA of 2.02 on the season and 3-0 (4-1 on the money line) with an ERA of 2.89 in 5 career starts versus Tampa Bay. The Rays' Niemann is 0-2 with a 4.50 ERA on the road this year and 0-2 with an 11.17 ERA in a pair of career starts versus the Rangers. We'll take Texas.
The Canadian Crew
Chicago White Sox +100
The Boston Red Sox are hoping that sometime in the Windy City will help lift them above .500 before their season slips away completely. Chicago is simply looking to return to their winning ways after a four game losing streak this week.
Starting out the rotation for Chicago is veteran pitcher Jake Peavey (3-0). Peavey is off to a good start this season after a less than memorable (7-7, 4.92 ERA) effort last season. He threw a shutout against Oakland on Monday which helped take his ERA down to a very pleasant 1.89. On the season so far, he’s pitched 28 innings, and given up only six runs, all earned. As long as he stays healthy, he’s going to be a serious force on this team.
On the other side of the plate, the White Sox aren’t lighting up the skies, but they’re not doing badly either. First baseman Paul Konerko is leading the team’s hitting with an impressive .367 batting average, four HR’s and 14 RBIs. Look for his fireworks to continue into today’s games.
Taking the mound for Boston is left hander Jon Lester (0-2). Despite his record, Lester is beginning to find his way this season and struck out four batters in the team’s 6-5 win over Minnesota on Monday. Over seven innings, he gave up six hits and five runs. But things can slip away from him quickly, hence the 6.00 ERA.
Boston is working very hard at pulling out of their early season slump and could, potentially, put up some runs today. On Thursday they walloped Chicago 10-3 in a game that included a Kevin Youkilis grand slam. That’s exactly the kind of momentum maker that Boston needs if they’re going to make something out of this season.
While we like the direction Boston is heading in, we don’t think that a similar score fest is on the books for today.