The Real Animal
NY Knicks +8.5
New York enters the playoffs having covered 19 of their last 26 games and obviously a different team under Coach Woodson. They are certainly much more legitimate than a year ago when they were swept by Boston in the first round and refused to play any defense under Coach D'Antoni. The Knicks have a Defensive Player of the Year candidate in Tyson Chandler in the middle and a stopper on the perimeter in Iman Shumpert, which has helped transform the team on that end of the floor. Anthony asserted himself in April after Jeremy Lin and Stoudemire went down, averaging 29.8 points in the month. Stoudemire is back as a second scoring option, having played at least 24 minutes in each of the final four games and stayed healthy. The Knicks also have a huge edge off the bench with Steve Novak and J.R. Smith. Miami shot 42 percent or less in each of their last five games. The Heat eclipsed the 100-point plateau in just one of their last eight contests. Once again Miami’s hopes rest on LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh. Just like last season, the supporting cast leaves something to be desired. Coach Eric Spoelstra moved Udonis Haslem into the starting lineup late in the season, giving the team some toughness up front to help deal with Chandler. Bosh missed the final six games of the regular season to rest a minor hamstring issue and both Wade and James took time off to rest minor injuries. There are some fairly impressive numbers to support the Knicks. New York is 5-0 ATS in their last five Saturday games; 10-4 ATS in the last 14 facing teams with winning records; plus 9-4 ATS after scoring 100 or more points last time out. The only thing that disturbs me is Miami went 3-0 against New York this year with all wins by eight points or more. The Knicks are 1-4 ATS in their last five as a road underdog of 5-10 1/2 points. Miami is 3-10 ATS with one day of rest recently but 4-1 ATS as a home playoff favorite between 5-10 1/2 points. The Heat failed to cover their playoff opener a year ago beating the 76ers by eight but laying 10 1/2. They were 1-2 ATS in that series against the 76ers but then went 6-2 ATS in remaining home playoff games in 2011. Tough call but the Knicks were a money-making machine down the stretch while the Heat had countless lineup changes in the final month.
OC DOOLEY
Dallas Mavericks +7.5
Uneven play down the stretch cost Oklahoma City the overall top seed in the Western Conference and the “non” reward is having to go up against the defending NBA championship with a rich playoff pedigree and veteran talent. It is unusual to see a league titlist like Dallas be cast as an underdog especially since the corps of the squad led by superstar Dirk Nowitzki is still together. Among the exiting players from last year’s championship squad were the likes of Tyson Chandler and J. J. Barea along with the recent “ejection” of the troubled Lamar Odom. While their has been some turnover in the roster the fact remains that in last year’s playoffs Oklahoma City has problems slowing down Nowitzki who averaged 32 points per game against them while hitting all but a pair of free-throws in 62 overall attempts. What was so troubling about the Thunder down the stretch of the regular season was their defensive deficiencies especially in the opening quarter of the most recent contests where they surrendered 40 and 36 points respectively. Most reading this analysis will remember when FBZ was a relevant forum and Oklahoma City guard Russell Westbrook received national criticism for shot selection and he did NOT play well in the 2012 stretch run. There is also a big question mark for Oklahoma City regarding sixth-man James Harden who led all NBA reserves in average points scored per contest (16.9) as he is still shaking off the effects of a “concussion elbow” so to speak delivered by the former Ron Artest. My research indicates that this is an excellent percentage wager as Dallas is 17-4 ATS the past two years in the PLAYOFFS. The Mavericks also have successfully COVERED the spread 15 of the past 20 times against opposition from the Northwest Division. In the past couple of campaigns when facing an explosive offensive opponent who on average scored 103 points per contest, Dallas has been near automatic (10-1 ATS) in the second-half of the season. To add even more fuel to the fire Dallas has COVERED the spread in 7 of the past 8 visits to Oklahoma City
Joe D'Amico
Pittsburgh Pirates at Atlanta Braves
Pick: Atlanta Braves
Atlanta is rolling. Today they get to face the league's worst scoring team. With Friday's 6-1 victory over the Pirates, the Braves have now taken 13 of their L16 meetings. Pitt has scored a mere 42 runs in 19 games. As a visitor, they are averaging a laughable 2.00 RPG. They rank 28th or worse in HRs, OPS, BA, and RPG. No power, only two players with 20 or more hits, and they can't steal. Erik Bedard gets the nod today. The LH is 0-4 TY and has an 0-1 record vs. Atlanta in his career. The Braves are posting 7.00 RPG at home and have beaten the Pirates 45 of their L64 contests played in Atlanta. Atlanta has a solid offense that move the runners around the base pads. Today, Randall Delgado is throwing. The RH is 2-1 on the season. The red-hot Braves have the Pirates number. The Pirates are 13-34 their L47 games played at the Braves, 64-152 their L216 games played on the road, and 0-4 in Bedards L4 starts. The Braves are 13-3 their L16 games played as a favorite, 6-0 their L6 games played against the NL Central, and 5-0 in Delgado's L5 starts as a favorite. Take Atlanta.
Lenny Del Genio
Detroit Tigers @ New York Yankees
PICK: New York Yankees
We won with the Yanks yesterday and considering the (again) unusually low price on the Pinstripes (at home, no less!), we have no choice to back them yet again Saturday afternoon. The Tigers are reeling right now, having been swept earlier in the week at home by Seattle and if they can't win with Justin Verlander on the bump, then one would have to figure they are poised to be swept right out of the Bronx this weekend. Overall, Detroit has dropped five in a row and seven of its last eight. Southpaw starter Drew Smyly has looked good in three starts thus far (1.12 ERA), but considering he faces a Yankees lineup averaging nearly SEVEN runs per game vs. lefties this season, it looks like he's "up against it" here. Not only is New York 40-18 vs. lefties going back to last season, but they are also 47-16 in day games. Therefore, we are willing to look past the early season woes of starter Freddy Garcia. Don't forget about that Yankees' bullpen (1.35 ERA at home)!
Jeff Alexander
Chicago White Sox +101
The White Sox have taken it on the chin in the first two games of this series, but they have still won 10 of their last 15 versus Boston. They are certainly showing value at this price with Peavy on the bump. He is 3-0 (4-0 on the money line) with an ERA of 1.88. Going back to last season, the Red Sox are only 1-7 in Lester's last 8 starts. We'll take the South Siders.
Red Dog Sports
Mets / Rockies Over 9½
These two played an 18-9 game on Friday night. One team had 19 hits and the other had 17. The Mets had 6 errors and both teams used many pitchers from its bullpen. The game is being played in Denver, Colorado, which is known as the Mile High City. The ball tends to travel well in the thin air.
The Mets bullpen has an ERA of 7.94 and the Mets are averaging 5.1 runs per game on the road while Colorado averages 6.8 runs per game at home. The Mets and their opponent have scored 27, 20 and 12 runs in their last 3 on the road. New York road games average 12.6 runs per game while Rockie's home game get to 12.8.
Moscoso starts for Colorado today and he has been pitching in AAA, which is just below the major league level. He is 1-3 with an ERA of 7.91.
The Mets are led by David Wright and outfielder Scott Hairston hit for the cycle (single, double, triple, homer) yesterday. Colorado is known for hitting and led by shortstop Troy Tulowitzi.
We could see a low scoring game but I think we have a good shot for over 9.5 runs. GL!
NYM/Colorado over 9.5 runs