Brandon Lang
Michigan State (+1) vs. BUTLER
For your early Final Four game, take Michigan State over Butler.
Been a great run for the Bulldogs, but part of me feels they caught a few breaks along the way, as they got to face Syracuse without their big man Onuaku, and then took full advantage of a Kansas State team that went through a double-overtime war against Xavier 48 hours before.
Tom Izzo is as good as they come, and Michigan State has been finding ways to win these close games. I expect this one will be close as well, but with State being the more-experienced of the 2 teams, and with State getting a solid 23 points from their bench in last weekend's win over Tennessee, I will go to the well one more time with the Spartans.
Chuck O'Brien
Detroit at ATLANTA
Free winner with the Bulls over the Wizards last night. Saturday’s complimentary selection also comes from the NBA, and I’ll back the Hawks at home against the Pistons.
Admittedly, this is a very tough spot for the Hawks, who are coming off last night’s disheartening loss at Cleveland. And if it were any other opponent, I’d shy away from Atlanta in such a letdown situation. But the Pistons are absolutely abysmal. With Friday’s 109-94 home loss to Phoenix, they’ve now dropped 10 games in a row overall, not only straight-up, but against the number. They’ve also suffered 10 straight road losses (2-8 ATS) by an average of 10.7 ppg. That includes a 112-99 setback in Atlanta as a 12-point underdog on March 13 (Detroit’s only previous visit to Georgia).
For the season, the Pistons are just 7-29 SU and 13-22-1 ATS on the highway, while the Hawks are 31-7 SU and 24-14 ATS at home. And with both teams playing the second night of a back-to-back, it’s interesting to note that while the Hawks are a modest 10-8 when playing on no rest this year (4-1 ATS in the last five), Detroit is a miserable 4-15-1 ATS this year on back-to-backs and 8-23-1 ATS going back to last year.
Speaking of pointspread records, this says it all: Atlanta, which covered by the hook last night, is 44-31 ATS on the season, the fourth best in the league. Detroit, which failed to cash Friday against Phoenix, ranks dead last at 28-45-2 ATS, and that includes just 14 covers in the Pistons’ last 52 games.
3♦ ATLANTA
Bobby Maxwell
Phoenix at MILWAUKEE (-2')
My FREE play hot streak sits at 75-52-3 and tonight I'm delivering an NBA winner as I lay the small chalk with the Bucks hosting the Suns in Milwaukee.
Phoenix brings a 10-game winning streak into Milwaukee after blowing out the Pistons on Friday night, but they have a quick turnaround to get ready for the Bucks, who have the young legs to run past the Suns tonight. Lay the chalk with Milwaukee.
The Bucks lost in overtime on Friday night in Charlotte, so they will be tired as well, but these kids can rebound quicker than the Suns. Milwaukee has cashed in four straight games, including two straight wins at home over the Clippers and Memphis (2-0 ATS). They are getting great play from John Salmons, who has brought a legitimate scorer to the backcourt, and dominant play in the middle from Andrew Bogut, who could cause problems for the Suns who will try to stop him with Jarron Collins.
Phoenix has won seven straight in this series, but January’s game in Phoenix was a thriller as the Suns edged the Bucks 105-101, failing to cover as a 9 ½-point favorite.
Milwaukee has been a money-making machine at the betting window, on ATS runs of 37-17-1 overall, 16-5 when they have to play on a back-to-back night, 7-0 on Saturdays, 8-2-1 against winning teams and 4-0 against Western Conference squads.
Phoenix has won those 10 straight games and is wrapping up a five-game roadie tonight. That last game of the road trip is usually the hardest to get as you are already looking forward to getting home. I’ll lay the chalk with the Bucks tonight.
4♦ MILWAUKEE
Stephen Nover
Phoenix at MILWAUKEE (-2')
The Bucks have really taken off since acquiring John Salmons going 17-5.
Although both teams were in action on Friday night, the Bucks catch Phoenix playing its fifth road game in seven days. That kind of load is tough on any team, especially one that runs and plays such a high up-tempo style as the Suns. It's too much to expect aged point guard Steve Nash to have fresh legs.
The Bucks are an impressive 22-14-1 (61 percent) ATS at Bradley Center this season. They are going to make the post-season for the first time since 2006. The Bucks have become legitimate thanks to Salmons, much improved center Andrew Bogut, rookie point guard Brandon Jennings and coach Scott Skiles.
Milwaukee's last two games have been on the road against Cleveland and Charlotte. Those two teams rank fourth and first, respectively, defensively. The Bucks are going to have a much easier time scoring against the Suns, who rank 28th defensively.
2♦ BUCKS
Chris Jordan
Phoenix (+2') at MILWAUKEE
Bit me to against the Bucks last night; tonight I'll take another shot by playing the visiting Suns.
Phoenix had an easier time last night than the Bucks, who lost in overtime to the Bobcats. The Suns, meanwhile, were busy trouncing the Pistons by 15 points.
And because of the blowout, only one player played more than 36 minutes (the equivalent to three quarters), and that was Grant Hill, who tallied 37:52 minutes.
On the other hand, three Bucks starters played more than almost 41 minutes apiece before having to travel home after the disappointing loss. And to have to take on a team - not to mention lay points to it - that has won 10 straight overall and seventh straight against them, I don't trust the Bucks one bit.
Phoenix checks in on ATS runs of 4-0 against the Eastern Conference, 11-3 on the road, 16-5 after an ATS cover, 4-1 after a straight-up win and 22-8 overall.
Even further, the Suns have covered seven of their last nine in Milwaukee, while the road team is on a 4-1 ATS run.
Take the road pup here.
2♦ SUNS
Karl Garrett
Portland (-6) at SACRAMENTO
Portland, Portland, and more Portland this Saturday night in Sacramento.
The Blazers got pancaked at Denver the other night, but will be up for the challenge tonight against a Kings team that has lost 6 in a row with a 2-3-1 spread mark in those 6 losses.
Portland is in the midst of some serious playoff positioning, and with the Kings tonight, and the Clippers on deck before a date with the Mavericks, this is a game the Blazers should, and will win.
The Blazers have won the last 6 series meetings, going 3-2-1 against the spread in that span.
Portland is also enjoying some money-making success on the road this year at 23-14-1 for the season.
Have to lay the chalk here, as Portland rolls.
3♦ PORTLAND
Brett Atkins
Tonight's free winner comes on the NBA hardwood as I go ahead and lay the chalk with the Bucks at home taking on the streaking Suns.
Milwuakee is a very good basketball team with a lot of young players that will thrive in this situation tonight. They are going up against a team that doesn't play defense, and who is coming in with old legs on the second night of a back-to-back.
Meanwhile, the Bucks also played Friday, but they are a huge 16-5 ATS when they play the second night of a back-to-back because they are all young and can get up and down the court. Since adding John Salmons to the roster, this team has become a force in the Eastern Conference.
Milwaukee is on ATS surges of 37-17-1 overall, 7-0 on Saturdays, 4-0 against Western conference teams and 8-2-1 when they face a winning team. Go ahead and lay the small chalk with the Bucks in this one.
4♦ MILWAUKEE
Joel Tyson
24-14-1 comp play run the last 39 days. Friday winner on Chicago.
Time to get on my "lumberjack shirt", and chop some wood with the Nuggets.
Denver is fresh off a Thursday pound-job of Portland, and now they host the lowly Clippers who are on a 7-19 spread skid their last 26 games.
The Nuggets have won 8 of the last 9 meetings against the Clippers, and they are also a solid 6-3 against the spread in those 9 showdowns.
Too much at stake for the Nuggets to have a slip up, expect Denver to pull away for the blowout cover.
3♦ DENVER
Jeff Benton
That’s now 13 of 14 freebie winners as the Heat (6♦) got the job done in overtime at Indiana last night. In addition to that, I’m on runs of 52-23-2, 42-18-2 and 33-13-2 with plays that I’m giving away!
For Saturday, I’ll go for my fourth straight NBA free-play winner by taking the Thunder plus the points at Dallas. Big shocker that I’d be fading the Mavericks at home again, huh? I mean, I’ve only been doing just that for two solid months now and reaped a bunch of winners, including Thursday’s freebie on Orlando laying 2½ points in Dallas.
With Thursday’s loss, the Mavs are now an astonishingly poor 5-27-1 ATS in their last 33 home games, including 4-26-1 ATS as a home favorite. Obviously, the oddsmakers have finally stopped beating their heads against the wall, as they’ve made Dallas only a slight favorite in this game. And that’s the only reason I’m giving it out as a free play instead of a premium selection.
One of the Mavericks’ non-covers at home this year came against these Thunder back on Jan. 15. In that one, Dallas held on for a 99-98 win, but Oklahoma City got the cash as a five-point pup. Kevin Durant and Co. then scored the outright win over the Mavericks a month later at home, a 99-86 beat-down as a 4½-point favorite. In fact, the Thunder have covered in seven of their last games against Dallas, going 4-0-1 in their last five trips to Big D.
Oklahoma City is 4-1 SU and ATS in its last five games, including back-to-back road wins Tuesday and Wednesday at Philadelphia (111-93) and Boston (109-94). The Thunder are also on ATS runs of 16-5 on the road against teams with a winning home record, 15-6 versus winning teams overall and 6-2 against Southwest Division opponents (Mavs, Spurs, Hornets, Rockets). Finally, their 44-30 overall ATS mark completely dwarf’s Dallas’ 32-43-1 ATS record.
7♦ OKLAHOMA CITY THUNDER
MTi Sports
Los Angeles Clippers at Denver Nuggets
Prediction: Denver Nuggets
The Clippers are 0-11 ATS (-11.7 ppg) when seeking revenge for a double-digit loss and 0-6 ATS (-10.6 ppg) after a road loss in which they allowed at least 55% from the field. The Nuggets are off a blowout 109-92 win over Portland in which they were only 5-of-22 from the arc. This qualifies them for an intriguing system that is perfect over the past five-plus season. It reads, ?The League is 9-0 ATS (+8.2 ppg) at home with at most one day of rest after a double-digit home win in which they shot at least twenty three-pointers and made less than a 25% of them. Lay the big number.
Brad Diamond Sports
Phoenix
Red hot Suns continue to take apart the NBA in the month of March and despite the tight schedule should have no problem here. The Suns have covered 7 of 10 in the series, while the UNDERDOG is hot at 12-5 ATS. With Phoenix rolling at 11-3 ATS in road games this stop over should be no problem.
Scott Delaney
Charlotte at Chicago
The Bobcats are in after a tough overtime affair with Milwaukee, and I'll side with the home team in this one, as Chicago can enhance its postseason hopes with a win over them.
Chicago is four games behind seventh-place Charlotte in the Eastern Conference standings, and pulled within 1 1/2 games of Toronto for the eighth and final playoff spot with a 95-87 win at Washington last night.
Now the Bulls catch a team they've had little trouble with at home. They’re 8-2 all-time at home against the 'Cats including a pair of wins in the teams’ last two meetings in Chicago.
The Bulls have also covered eight of their last 10 overall. Lay the home chalk.
2♦ BULLS
Craig Davis
Tonight's free play is on the OKC Thunder over Dallas. First off, the Mavericks don't cover at home. Secondly, they absolutely sucked Thursday night vs. Orlando at home... please tell me how you score only 82 points in a 48-minute game?? The Thunder have covered two straight vs. Dallas and seven of the last eight, winning outright two of the last four games. The thing I like about the Thunder is that they shoot free throws so well for a young team. Dallas is still the best FT shooting team in the NBA, but OKC is #2 and that's what has helped them tremendously to their 46-28 record. I guess I like the younger legs of the Thunder vs. an older Dallas team that seems to be tiring as the season comes to a close. Take OKC to get the outright win.
2♦ OKLAHOMA CITY
Derek Mancini
Phoenix at MILWAUKEE (-2)
Be careful with this one guys, because the line on this contest reeks of a trap. Of course, based on the Suns dominance over the Bucks AND their 10-game win streak, taking them as a dog here seems like a no-brainer... Big mistake.
Who needs this game more? Sure, the Suns would like to maintain their lead over the Nuggets, but Milwaukee is playing with fire after losing 4 of their L6 games (incl. 2 straight), and must get back on track tonight. Bucks have lost focus down the stretch, but a return to the Bradley Center should do a lot of good, where they're 26-11 SU and 22-14-1 ATS.
Another clear reason to fade the Suns is they're playing without rest, where they're just 7-11 ATS this season. Their defense is already bad, but when playing tired, they're terrible. The absence of Robin Lopez is also a huge blow to this Suns team, because the combo of Frye (too foul prone) and Collins is going have major problems with Bogut tonight. Bucks offense revolves around Bogut, because when he gets going, it opens up the floor for scorers Salmons and Jennings.
Lay the points, as a tired Suns team is vulnerable, especially without Lopez to challenge Bogut. Milwaukee already has enough motivation to snap their 7-game losing streak in this series, but add in playoff implications (Bucks have to start winning games again), and Milwaukee is the play here.
2♦ MILWAUKEE
Larry Ness
NJN +2.5 vs NOH
The Nets won a week ago Wednesday at home vs the Kings, then last Friday at home vs the Pistons. After losing last Saturday at Chicago, the Nets upset the Spurs in New Jersey this past Monday, earning their 10th win of the season, thereby surpassing the 1972-73 76ers for futility in one NBA season (Philly went 9-73 that year, the worst single-season record in NBA history). The Nets can be excused for falling to the Suns on Wednesday, as Phoenix is the league's hottest team, entering Saturday's play on a 10-game winning streak, posting a 19-4 mark since the break. The Nets led by three at the half vs the Suns but were outscored 13-0 in the opening minutes of the third quarter, on the way to getting outscored 38-23 in the quarter (lost the game, 116-105). The 35-42 Hornets will finish with a losing record this year for the first time since going 39-43 in the 2006-07 season (year team played home games in Okla City due to Hurricane Katrina). They have lost four straight and 11 of 12 on the road entering this game and let's remember the Nets had won three in a row at home, prior to running into the red-hot Suns. Expect the Nets to get lucky win No. 11 tonight.