Tony George
CHI -2.5 vs CHL
Quietly the Bulls are surging and playing well, which has gone un-noticed, winning 5 out of their last 7 games and catching Charlotte on the road here off an OT game at home against the Bucks on a back to back scheduling spot on a holiday weekend. The Bobcats are money at home, but have won just 11 games on the road all season. I lean to the Bulls at home here.
JR ODonnell
MIL / PHO Over 208
Our camp is backing the Over 208 here tonight as a dog tired Milwaukee Bucks club will be a slower team on the defensive side.We note that the Phoenix Suns are on fire right now, winners of 10 in a row and still in a major fight with the Denver Nuggets for a top spot and home court advantage. The Suns have put up close to 118 per game and the addition of J Salmons powers some O punch to the Bucks! Over is 10-2 in Bucks last 12 vs.a team with a winning S.U. record & 10-2 Over the last 12 times these 2 have battled. We're on the OVER here big time tonight.
Harry Bondi
OKLAHOMA CITY (+3.5) over Dallas
Dallas has been an overrated team all season long and is one of the few clubs in the NBA with a home court "disadvantage" as seen by its deplorable 9-28 record against the spread when playing in Dallas. The Mavs traded for Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood at the trading deadline, but the team has actually played worse since that deal. Oklahoma City is coming on and in position to earn a playoff spot. The Thunder have also been scrappy as a short underdog this year, going 5-1 ATS on the road when getting 5 points or less. Dallas falters once again at home.
VEGAS EXPERTS
Charlotte Bobcats at Chicago Bulls
Both the Charlotte Bobcats and Chicago Bulls are battling to stay in the Eastern Conference playoff race. Charlotte is sitting in seventh place, 2.5-games ahead of Toronto. Chicago is on the outside looking in as they are currently in ninth and 1.5-games back of the Raptors. So tonight’s game in Chicago has big implications for both teams. These two have gone Over the total in the last three games against one another by an average of 20 points per game. We say go with the Over here once again.
Play on: Over
John Ryan
New York Rangers vs. Florida Panthers
Play: New York Rangers -122
3* graded play on the Rangers as they take on Florida set to start at 7:05 EST. Our proprietary sports handicapping model and simulator shows a high probability that the Rangers will win the game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 54-28 making 36.7 units since 2004. Play against home teams against the money line off a road win by 1 goal and is a tired team playing 6 or more games in 10 days. Florida is just 0-7 against the money line (-7.2 Units) against good starting goalies that are saving >= 91.5% of shots against in the 2nd half of this season. Thanks to the Flyers losing to Montreal and making it 9 losses of the past 11 games, the Rangers are knocking on the door to get that final 8th spot. They have a very strong goalie, who is playing very well. Henrik Lundqvist has saved 92% of 1972 shots faced for the season. Over his last 4 games, he is 3-1 and has saved 93% of 128 shots faced. Model projects that the Rangers will allow 2 or fewer goals. in past games allowing 2 or fewer goals they are 31-12 making 19.6 units this season, 107-32 making 71.3 units spanning the past 3 seasons, and 361-95 making 279.2 units since 1997. Take the Rangers.
Tom Freese
Portland Trail Blazers at Sacramento Kings
Prediction: Portland Trail Blazers
Sacramento is 24-52 this year. Point guard Tyreke Evans scores 20.2 points a game. Point guard Beno Udrih scores 12.8 points a game. Center Jason Thompson scores 12.4 points and 8.4 rebounds a game. The Kinks score 99.9 points a game and they allow 104.2 points a game. Sacramento is 2-8-1 ATS their last 11 games when playing with two days of rest and they are 0-6-1 ATS their last 7 Saturday games. Portland is 46-30 this year. Brandon Roy scores 21.9 points a game. Power forward La Marcus Aldridge scores 17.5 points and 8 rebounds a game. Point guard Andre Miller scores 14 points a game. The Trailblazers score 98.3 points a game and they allow 94.9 points a game Portland is 11-1 ATS their last 12 games after allowing 100 or more points in their last game and they are 9-3 ATS their last 12 games vs. a team with a losing record. PLAY ON PORTLAND -
Nelly
Charlotte + over Chicago
The Bulls appear to be playing better of late with a handful of recent wins to stay relevant and within striking distance of the playoff chase. Don’t be fooled however as the five wins in the last seven games have all come against non-playoff teams, beating Philadelphia, Houston, New Jersey, Detroit, and Washington. The Bulls have lost eleven out of the last twelve against winning teams with only the win over the 38-37 Rockets counting as a somewhat quality win. On the season the Bulls are being out-scored by over two-points per game and now must go against the best defense in the NBA. Charlotte enters this game off a hard fought OT win over Milwaukee but the Bulls had to work just as hard to hold off the Wizards on the road last night. While Charlotte is 11-26 S/U on the season in road games, the Bobcats are 5-1 ATS over the past six road contests. The road team has covered in six of the last eight in this series and Charlotte has covered in five of the past six meetings. Charlotte is a winning ATS team in road games despite the poor S/U numbers and the Bobcats have also been one of the best teams in the league coming off no rest, going 14-5-1 in the second of back-to-back games.
SPORTS WAGERS
CHICAGO –3 over Charlotte Pinnacle
The overachieving at home Bobcats are coming off a very intense, OT win last night in Charlotte against the Bucks. They ended up winning by a penny and both teams challenged every possession. It was a good game but it sure wasn’t a pretty one. Now the Cats will take its 11-26 road record to Chicago to play its third game in four days and the tail end of back-to-backs. Furthermore, Stephen Jackson is a bit banged up and is not 100% and if he doesn’t go off, the Cats virtually have no shot of winning on the road. Good luck to them. The Bulls are fighting for their playoff lives, as they continue to chase the Raps for the final playoff spot. Toronto plays a matinee game in Philly so the Bulls will know the result of that one when this one begins. Regardless of the outcome the Bulls need to be 100% focused here and why wouldn’t they be. They have Luol Deng back, Noah is once again playing significant minutes and Kirk Henrich is back in the starting lineup. The Bulls are healthy and they’re a dangerous and very streaky team. They, too, played last night and came away with a win in Washington. The Bulls have now won three of its last four and under these circumstances against this abhorrently challenged offense, they might just put this intruder away very early. Get in on this one early, as there’s a very good chance this line will rise. Play: Chicago –3 (Risking 2.18 units to win 2).
Nashville +1.80 over DETROIT
2:00 PM EST start. We’re pretty sure that nobody wants to play the Red Wings come playoff time and who could blame them. This team is red-hot at a crucial time and they’re proving once again that when the chips are down they’re a team to fear. Detroit controlled its on destiny and is cruising into the playoffs now instead of fighting to get in after its current seven-game winning streak. They can even leapfrog over the Preds this afternoon with a win here and surely that’s a distinct possibility. However, in terms of value, the Preds have to be considered a decent play. Nashville is rarely out of a game and is almost always in a position to win. They play a tough, disciplined, physical style and they play it for 60 minutes. Furthermore, it’s not like the Preds are in a funk either. Like the Red Wings, Nashville is hot too, winning four in a row on the road and winning nine of its last 12 overall. Lastly, in a year in which goaltending is a big concern for most teams, it’s not for the Preds because Pekka Rinne and Dan Ellis might be the best goaltending duo in the business. Overlay. Play: Nashville +1.80 (Risking 2 units).
Buffalo +1.06 over MONTREAL
The Sabres can finish as high as the #2 seed in the East, a position they hold right now but they’re also just a single point ahead of Pittsburgh and New Jersey, thus, they can also finish as the #3 or #4 seed. The Habs meanwhile, picked up a huge win last night, 1-0 in Philly, and once again they won, not because they were the best team on the ice but because Jaroslav Halak bailed them out. Of the 126 teams going to the playoff the Canadiens will be the 16th best team and once again, as I pointed out in this week’s blog, Jaroslav Halak is the league’s MVP. The pressure is by no means off the Habs, as the Rangers are coming hard and both Philly and Boston are just two points behind them. After a playoff-like game last night Montreal will get right back at it here to play its third game in four nights and the tail end of back-to-backs. The Habs have just two wins over its last seven games and those wins came against the sinking Flyers and the dead Panthers. Enter the Sabres and they’re the inferior team is every aspect. For sure they’ll be jacked up playing in Montreal on Hockey night in Canada and they’re also very aware that they’re in a position to make life miserable for the Habs while helping themselves out. So, any take-back on the Sabres against the Habs is a worthwhile one and you can double that under these circumstances. Play: Buffalo +1.06 (Risking 2 units).
Stan Lisowski
Mich St / Butler Over
Spartan tournament games average 138.5 points, the highest of the 4 teams in the Final 4. This year, the average total score in Michigan State games against non-conference opponents is 146. In road/road neutral matchups, Butler and their opponents have combined for a 129 point average.
O.C. Dooley
Michigan State / Butler OVER 126
This total has been kept in check due to the fact that Butler’s defense has not allowed more than 59 points the entire tournament as they have held the opposition to just 41% shooting overall from the floor and just 31% from “three point” range. Going back a bit further the Bulldogs have allowed an opponent to reach the 59 point mark just ONCE in the past dozen outings. On offense Butler continues to work the shot clock by executing a multitude of passes and patience which is why they constantly have played below the spot. This total is also low to account for the fact that Michigan State continues to play without their #1 offensive weapon as Kalin Lucas (achillies) is done for the season. But the fact of the matter is that during the regular season the Spartans were the best “fast break” team in the entire Big 10 conference. Due to the Lucas injury Butler as some stages of tonight’s national semifinal will be employing a “four guard” offense which gives us a window for a higher scoring game than most would think. It was exactly one year ago in the NCAA Final Four that Michigan State played OVER a posted total (135) that was relatively low as they got into a 82-73 shootout with Connecticut. The Spartans also played OVER the total (153) in last year’s 89-72 national championship so there is a recent track record to tap. It may be hard to believe considering how low scoring their tournament games have been but according my database research Butler is in a good spot to exceed this particular spot. First of all the Bulldogs are 8-1 OVER if their prior pair of games stayed below the spot. In the past three years Butler has gone an amazing 8-0 OVER in “neutral court” setups when the posted total has been less than 130 points. Do I hear 9-0 OVER anyone?!
DUNKEL
Portland at Sacramento
The Blazers look to rebound from a 109-92 loss to Denver and build on their 11-1 ATS record in their last 12 games after allowing 100 or more points in their previous game. Portland is the pick (-6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Blazers favored by 9 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Portland (-6 1/2)
Game 801-802: Toronto at Philadelphia
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 114.595; Philadelphia 113.699
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 1; 208
Vegas Line & Total: Toronto by 4 1/2; 204
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+4 1/2); Over
Game 803-804: Detroit at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 107.898; Atlanta 126.344
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 18 1/2; 196
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 14; 196 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-14); Under
Game 805-806: New Orleans at New Jersey
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 115.041; New Jersey 109.251
Dunkel Line & Total: New Orleans by 6; 204
Vegas Line & Total: New Orleans by 2; 201
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-2); Over
Game 807-808: Miami at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 123.365; Minnesota 114.476
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 9; 195
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 5; 190 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-5); Over
Game 809-810: Charlotte at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Charlotte 116.708; Chicago 120.854
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 4; 190
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 3; 186 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-3); Over
Game 811-812: Oklahoma City at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma City 119.221; Dallas 123.763
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 4 1/2; 192
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas 3 1/2; 195 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-3 1/2); Under
Game 813-814: Phoenix at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 124.395; Milwaukee 122.474
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 2; 214
Vegas Line & Total: Milwaukee by 2 1/2; 208 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (+2 1/2); Over
Game 815-816: LA Clippers at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: LA Clippers 110.277; Denver 119.804
Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 9 1/2; 202
Vegas Line & Total: Denver by 14 1/2; 207 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LA Clippers (+14 1/2); Under
Game 817-818: Portland at Sacramento
Dunkel Ratings: Portland 124.170; Sacramento 114.707
Dunkel Line & Total: Portland by 9 1/2; 198
Vegas Line & Total: Portland by 6 1/2; 194 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Portland (-6 1/2); Over
NCAAB
Michigan State vs. Butler
The Spartans look to take advantage of a Butler team that is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games as a neutral site favorite. Michigan State is the pick (+1 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Spartans favored by 2. Dunkel Pick: Michigan State (+1 1/2)
Game 819-820: Michigan State vs. Butler
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan State 71.763; Butler 69.873
Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 2
Vegas Line: Butler by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Michigan State (+1 1/2)
Game 821-822: West Virginia vs. Duke
Dunkel Ratings: West Virginia 72.899; Duke 78.428
Dunkel Line: Duke by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Duke by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Duke (-2 1/2)
NHL
Boston at Toronto
The Maple Leafs look to take advantage of a Boston team that is coming off a 1-0 loss to Florida and is 1-7 in its last 8 games after allowing 2 goals or less in the previous game. Toronto is the pick (+110) according to Dunkel, which has the Maple Leafs favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+110)
Game 1-2: Atlanta at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 10.840; Pittsburgh 11.898
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1; 7
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-230); 6
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-230); Over
Game 3-4: Nashville at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Nashville 12.241; Detroit 12.148
Dunkel Line & Total: Nashville by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit (-200); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Nashville (+170); Under
Game 5-6: Ottawa at NY Islanders
Dunkel Ratings: Ottawa 11.934; NY Islanders 11.492
Dunkel Line & Total: Ottawa by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Ottawa (-130); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (-130); Over
Game 7-8: Buffalo at Montreal
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 11.899; Montreal 11.123
Dunkel Line & Total: Buffalo by 1; 5 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Buffalo (-110); 5
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (-110); Over
Game 9-10: Washington at Columbus
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 11.083; Columbus 11.602
Dunkel Line & Total: Columbus by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-175); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Columbus (+155); Over
Game 11-12: NY Rangers at Florida
Dunkel Ratings: NY Rangers 12.410; Florida 11.320
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Rangers by 1; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: NY Rangers (-130); 5
Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (-130); Under
Game 13-14: Boston at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 11.391; Toronto 12.543
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-130); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+110); Over
Game 15-16: New Jersey at Carolina
Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 10.976; Carolina 12.340
Dunkel Line & Total: Carolina by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Carolina (-125); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (-125); Over
Game 17-18: Dallas at St. Louis
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 12.213; St. Louis 12.550
Dunkel Line & Total: St. Louis by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: St. Louis (-155); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-155); Under
Game 19-20: Edmonton at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: Edmonton 10.828; Phoenix 12.287
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Phoenix (-320); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-320); Under
Game 21-22: Anaheim at Los Angeles
Dunkel Ratings: Anaheim 11.604; Los Angeles 13.015
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles (-200); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-200); Under