Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, April 5

DUNKEL INDEX

MLB

San Diego at Miami
The Marlins look to follow up their win yesterday in the series opener against the Padres and come into tonight's contest with a 14-2 record in Jose Fernandez' last 16 home starts. Miami is the pick (-150) according to Dunkel, which has the Marlins favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Miami (-150)

Game 951-952: Cincinnati at NY Mets (1:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati (Cueto) 15.862; NY Mets (Gee) 14.315
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 1 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati (-140); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-140); Under

Game 953-954: Philadelphia at Chicago Cubs (2:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia (Lee) 14.145; Cubs (Samardzija) 15.032
Dunkel Line: Chicago Cubs by 1; 10
Vegas Line: Philadelphia (-135); No Total
Dunkel Pick: Chicago Cubs (+115); N/A

Game 955-956: San Francisco at LA Dodgers (4:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco (Bumgarner) 16.052; LA Dodgers (Maholm) 15.101
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1; 8 1/2
Vegas Line: San Francisco (-120); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-120); Over

Game 957-958: Atlanta at Washington (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta (Teheran) 15.866; Washington (Strasburg) 14.991
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 1; 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Washington (-175); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+155); Under

Game 959-960: St. Louis at Pittsburgh (7:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis (Kelly) 15.913; Pittsburgh (Liriano) 14.899
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 8
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh (-135); 7
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+115); Over

Game 961-962: San Diego at Miami (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego (Cashner) 14.455; Miami (Fernandez) 15.918
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1 1/2; 5 1/2
Vegas Line: Miami (-150); 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-150); Under

Game 963-964: Arizona at Colorado (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona (McCarthy) 15.310; Colorado (De La Rosa) 14.513
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 9
Vegas Line: Colorado (-135); 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+115); Under

Game 965-966: Minnesota at Cleveland (1:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota (Gibson) 12.996; Cleveland (Carrasco) 16.106
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 3; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Cleveland (-165); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-165); Over

Game 967-968: NY Yankees at Toronto (1:07 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Yankees (Pineda) 15.621; Toronto (Dickey) 14.708
Dunkel Line: NY Yankees by 1; 7
Vegas Line: Toronto (-120); 8
Dunkel Pick: NY Yankees (+100); Under

Game 969-970: Baltimore at Detroit (1:08 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore (Norris) 15.285; Detroit (Porcello) 16.604
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 1 1/2; 9
Vegas Line: Detroit (-150); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-150); Over

Game 971-972: Chicago White Sox at Kansas City (2:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: White Sox (Danks) 15.679; Kansas City (Chen) 14.811
Dunkel Line: Chicago White Sox by 1; 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Kansas City (-145); 8
Dunkel Pick: Chicago White Sox (+125); Over

Game 973-974: Seattle at Oakland (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle (Hernandez) 17.206; Oakland (Straily) 15.855
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line: Seattle (-130); 7
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-130); Under

Game 975-976: Texas at Tampa Bay (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas (Martinez) 16.358; Tampa Bay (Price) 15.728
Dunkel Line: Texas by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay (-180); 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+160); Under

Game 977-978: LA Angels at Houston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: LA Angels (Skaggs) 14.673; Houston (Keuchel) 12.825
Dunkel Line: LA Angels by 2; 10
Vegas Line: LA Angels (-145); 9
Dunkel Pick: LA Angels (-145); Over

Game 979-980: Milwaukee at Boston (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Milwaukee (Peralta) 15.804; Boston (Buchholz) 17.256
Dunkel Line: Boston by 1 1/2; 8
Vegas Line: Boston (-185); 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-185); Under

Ken ThomsonFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Fresno St. / Siena Under 138FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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I expect this line to go down several points.....I played it today and I am putting it up now because I know you want to get a good number....The game last night was a Fresno State blow out .....The Bulldogs mailed their three's early and often and the game was out of hand by halftime 43-24. Siena could not get closer than 16 until the final score and Fresno State coasted. This game is 11:30 AM EST local time start on Saturday. That's 8:30 AM body clock time for the Fresno State boys. They will have been there long enough to have adjusted to the time but this is for all the CBI marbles. The teams now know each other as well as this is third meeting in 6 days. Eight of Siena's last ten games have gone under that 138 total, most by 10 or more points. Six of Fresno State's last eight have also gone under that total. Unless one of the teams gets out early by double digits , expect a game where possessions are valued much more. I think game ends between 122-128 points TOTAL!

LT ProfitsFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Kentucky vs WisconsinFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Wisconsin +2FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Two teams that have probably passed the “eye test” better than the rest of the NCAA Tournament field meet when the Wisconsin Badgers face the Kentucky Wildcats in one of the Final Four matchups. With the momentum of these teams practically a wash, we turn to the numbers and underdog Wisconsin simply grades out better. Granted it is close as Wisconsin is ranked sixth overall on the Pomeroy Ratings, fourth in offensive efficiency and 45th in defensive efficiency while Kentucky is eighth overall, ninth in offensive efficiency and is slightly better in defensive efficiency at 40th. The key though is that Wisconsin seems better equipped to neutralize Kentucky’s biggest strength. Kentucky leads the country in offensive rebounding percentage, but Wisconsin is 13th defensively. Conversely, the Badgers are second in offensive turnover percentage but Kentucky is just 301st defensively! Wisconsin is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 non-conference games.

Marc LawrenceFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Boston Celtics at Detroit PistonsFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: Detroit PistonsFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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When the Pistons battle the Celtics in a battle of also-rans in the Motor City Saturday evening, Detroit will take the floor knowing they are 7-1 ATS the last eight games in this series. The Pistons will also be looking to avenge a 10-point loss suffered a month ago in Beantown. With Boston eyeing up a bigger battle with Atlanta, look for the Celtics to fall to 0-5 ATS in games before battling Boston here tonight. We recommend a 1-unit play on Detroit.

Jimmy BoydFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Connecticut vs. FloridaFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Connecticut +6½FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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I'll gladly take the points with the Huskies in Saturday's Final Four matchup. Connecticut beat Florida during the regular season 65-64 and will have the best player on the floor in Shabazz Napier, who is averaging 23.3 points, 6.0 rebounds, 4.5 assists and 2 steals in the Huskies four tournament games.
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It's not just Napier the Gators have to be worried about, DeAndre Daniels and Ryan Boatright combined are averaging 30.8 points and 9.8 rebounds. I think Connecticut is going to surprise a lot of people with how well they score the basketball against Florida.
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The biggest key to why I like the Huskies is the defense of Napier and Boatright, who I believe will make life miserable for SEC Player of the Year Scottie Wilbekin. In the regular season matchup, Wilbekin had 15 points, but was just 6 of 14 from the field with just two assists to three turnovers. Keep in mind that Wilbekin is the only player for Florida that's averaging more than 10.5 points/game.
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Connecticut is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games away from home 15+ games into the season against teams who are outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game. They are also a perfect 7-0 ATS in their last 7 contest 15+ games in against teams who are outrebounding their opponents by 4+ rebounds.
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We also see that the Huskies are 19-8 ATS in their last 27 when listed as an underdog or pick on a neutral setting and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog overall. Florida on the other hand is just 1-7 ATS in their last 8 when they come in having covered the spread in 2 of their last 3.

Jim FeistFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Boston Celtics vs. Detroit PistonsFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Detroit Pistons -6FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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It's the second of a back to back spot for both teams, which is not good for a traveling Boston squad that is short on depth. The Celtics are 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. the Eastern Conference. Boston is also short on height, 16th in the NBA in rebounds, 27th in scoring. That will be a major problem against this big Pistons frontcourt, one ranked 2nd in the NBA in rebounding. Detroit put up a good fight against another of the East's top teams Wednesday, never trailing by more than eight points in a 101-94 loss at Indiana. Josh Smith scored 24 points while Greg Monroe and Drummond combined for 30 and 30 boards, but the Pistons were held to a season-low 36.6 percent shooting. Monroe has posted three straight double-doubles, averaging 21.7 points and 13.3 boards. The home team is 5-1-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings and the Celtics are 1-6-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings, including 0-5 ATS in the last 5 meetings in Detroit.

Red Dog SportsFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Winnipeg vs. TorontoFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Over 5½FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Toronto has 43 overs and just 32 unders this year and their last five scores have reached 7, 5, 6, 6 and 8 goals combined with the opponents. Winnipeg has seen its last five games tally 6, 3, 9, 6 and 7 goals. They played once this year and it ended 5-4 back on January 25, 2014. The over has won the money in 4 of the last 5 meetings in Toronto. Hopefully, we see a 4-2 final score and over.

Scott Spreitzer

St. Louis vs. Pittsburgh
Play: Under 7

The Pirate bats busted out last night, but Joe Kelly comes to the Cardinal rescue in this one. The Cardinal righty was tremendous in 2013, including his three appearances at PNC where he allowed just 1 earned run and 14 base runners in 14 IP. Franscisco Liriano takes the mound for the Bucs for the second time this season after a dominating effort against the Cubs. The lefty was nothing short of fantastic at PNC last season and completely shut down the Redbirds in three starts against them. Pirates' home games are on a 38-19 Under run when the total is 7 or less, which is the case in this one. And after an un-Cardinal-like performance from the bullpen last night, I expect a return to form when needed in this one. I'm recommending a play on the Under between the Cardinals & Pirates on Saturday.

Timothy Black

Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Mets
Play: Cincinnati Reds -128

The Reds are 6-1 in their last 7 games in New York and 9-4 in their last 13 overall meetings with the Mets. Also, the Reds are 4-1 in Cueto’s last 5 starts vs. the Mets. Overall, the Reds are 36-15 in Cueto's last 51 starts as a favorite and 39-19 in his last 58 starts vs. a team with a losing record.

The Mets are just 1-5 in their last 6 games as an underdog and only 1-5 in Gee's last 6 starts as a home underdog. Also, the Mets are just 2-12 in their last 14 games as an underdog of +110 to +150.

Art Aronson

Charlotte Bobcats vs. Cleveland Cavaliers
Play: Cleveland Cavaliers -2½

Despite the poor showing from Cleveland last night, the team has been playing some good ball and I expect it to get a big win here at home over the Bobcats this evening. Cleveland has still won five of seven coming into this game as it makes a last ditch charge at a playoff spot. The Cavs have confidence on their home court as they have won two straight there over two of the East’s best in Toronto and Indiana. Dion Waiters’ play has been huge in the team’s recent run. Waiters has averaged 23.1 points in his last nine games. Charlotte also played last night, a 91-80 blowout win at home over Orlando. Al Jefferson continues to give the team a big push as he had 29 points and 16 rebounds. I expect a bit of a letdown here as the team has to travel to Cleveland the very next night. The Bobcats are just 15-22 on the road this season. While Charlotte comes in having won three straight over Cleveland, note that the Cavs are still 3-1 SU and ATS against the Bobcats when hosting. The revenge factor on home court added with the playoff desperation should give the Cavaliers plenty of motivation. Cleveland is also 21-16 on home court. Consider taking a close look at the Cavaliers in this situation.

Rob Vinciletti

Giants vs. Dodgers
Play: Over 7½

This game fits a solid totals system that has played to the over the last 9 times. We want to go over the total for road favorites like the Giants with a total that is 8 or less, if these teams are off a road dog win and scored 5 or more runs, vs an opponent that is off a home favored loss, scored 4 or less runs, but still managed to get 10 or more hits. The Giants have flown in 15 of 20 as a road favorite off a road win if they scored 5+ runs. They have gone over in 4 of the 5 games already this season. The Dodgers are more potent with Kemp back in the lineup and they have played over the last 6 times as a home dog off a home favored loss. M. Bumgarner has pitched over in 4 of his last 6 road starts and Malholm for the Dodgers has gone over in 6 of 9 vs the Giants. Take the over here today.

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Nick Parsons

Boston vs. Detroit
Play: Under 206

Both teams comes into this game on losing streaks. The Celtics lost their seventh in a row in yesterday’s 111-102 loss to the 76ers. A brutal and deflating setback for the team as the lowly 76ers entered that contest on a 13-game road losing streak.

Detroit can empathize as it lost to Philadelphia last Saturday, a humiliating 123-98 setback.

Boston has been a disaster this season and its lost five road matchup with the Pistons while averaging a measley 84.2 points in the process. Note that Rajon Rondo will not be in this game today as he does not play in back-to-back contests after his knee surgery.

Detroit lost 116-104 in Brooklyn last night and has allowed a miserable 112.2 PPG in losing four of five; note though that Detroit has seen the total dip below the number in six of 11 as a home fav in the 3.5 to 6-points range this season.

And note that Boston has in fact seen the total go “under” the number in 23 of 43 vs. good offensive teams which score 99 plus points per contest this year.

A couple of tired, injured and disinterested clubs at the end of the season; this one has all the makings of a lower-scoring affair.

Bruce Marshall

Senators at Rangers
Pick: Over

The Sens are getting a bit sloppy as their playoff hopes float out the window, and defensive resolve was lacking in Friday's 7-4 loss to the Canadiens when Ottawa squandered an early three-goal lead. Goaltending looks to be a major concern, especially after Craig Anderson allowed seven goals on 23 shots vs. Montreal , which could mean Robin Lehner will start the second of the back-to-back games. He's 2-0-1 with a .933 save percentage in his last three starts, but he allowed five goals on 28 shots in a relief role in taking the loss last month to the Rangers.

Mr. Masterline

Avalanche vs. Blues
Play: Under 5.5

We have our clients on this daytime under play today. The stats are solid, jump on this high speed train to the cashing window! Under is 3-1-1 in the last 5 meetings in St. Louis. Under is 6-2-3 in the last 11 meetings. Under is 4-0 in Avalanche last 4 games playing on 1 days rest. Under is 4-0 in Avalanche last 4 overall. Over is 4-0 in Avalanche last 4 when their opponent scores 2 goals or less in their previous game. Under is 4-0 in Avalanche last 4 games following a win. Under is 4-0 in Avalanche last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. Under is 4-1 in Avalanche last 5 when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game. Under is 7-3 in Avalanche last 10 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game. Under is 5-0 in Blues last 5 vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Under is 7-0-1 in Blues last 8 when their opponent allows 2 goals or less in their previous game. Over is 5-1 in Blues last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. Under is 4-1 in Blues last 5 after scoring 2 goals or less in their previous game. Under is 6-2-2 in Blues last 10 after allowing 2 goals or less in their previous game. Over is 15-5-1 in Blues last 21 Saturday games. Under is 5-2-2 in Blues last 9 vs. Central. Under is 9-4-2 in Blues last 15 overall.