Charlie Scott
Connecticut vs. Florida
Play: Over 126.5
How times have changed ! Less than 10 Years ago an Over bet in the Final 4 was generally viewed as a square play. The Old rule used to be Big games played in Football stadiums = Unders. However, Oddsmakers adjusted and lowered the Totals as the public got smarter. While both Teams play good defense, they both will run when given the opportunity, and both Teams have skill players that can score. UCONN Guards go to the basket & draw Fouls + they make their Foul shots. When playing a total this low, I estimate if Both Teams have a Terrible day on Offense, Total points is still somewhere around 110 minimum, with that said, Teams playing their worst Offensively and we're only 9 Baskets combined away from cashing ? OVER !Hopefully the Ref's call a tight game. Throw in Fouls at the end of the game +low Total and I played OVER !
Stephen Nover
NY Yankees vs. Toronto
Play: NY Yankees +110
After not pitching for nearly two seasons, Michael Pineda is finally ready. I expect a strong game from Pineda now that he's finally healthy. He went 2-1 with a 1.20 ERA in four spring training games. He had a 16-to-1 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 15 innings.
Toronto has lost 15 of 20 games to the Yankees going back to last season. The Blue Jays are batting just .143 with runners in scoring position so far this season and RA Dickey pitching.
Dickey is a knuckleballer who has been a huge disappointment since returning to the American League last season. He had a 4.21 ERA last year while surrendering 34 homers and is 0-1 with a 10.80 ERA this season.
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Wisconsin +1.5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Kentucky has without a doubt had the most impressive run to the Final Four with wins over K-State and three of the teams that were in last seasons Final Four in Wichita State, Louisville and Michigan. However this is a very tough match up for this young Kentucky team. Wisconsin is a very experienced team and they are a bit different from Badger teams of the past as this years team can play an up-tempo pace. Wisconsin also has size to counter the huge advantage that the Wildcats usually have over most opponents on the offensive glass. Wisconsin's bigs can also shoot the ball which makes this matchup a very tough one for Kentucky. I do have a 10-1 future on Kentucky to win the national championship that I placed when I was in Vegas in January so this is a bit of a hedge, but even if I didn't have that wager pending I would be on the Badgers in this game. This Wisconsin team is capable of winning it all as they already have proved with wins this year over the other two teams in the Final Four. Take the points with Wisconsin.
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SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS AT LOS ANGELES DODGERSVlSlT THESPREAD.COM
PLAY: SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS -115VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Can one bad apple spoil the whole bunch? Maybe that’s not the right terminology for Yasiel Puig, as his problem is more immaturity than anything else. But it really takes only one problem to put the domino principle into motion, and Puig is absolutely a problem at this point. His latest faux pas was showing up later than he was supposed to for yesterday’s game and that forced Dodgers skipper Don Mattingly to bench Puig against the Giants.
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Puig is incredibly talented, but he’s also becoming a major pain in the butt. If you don’t think this can become a distraction for the entire team, think again. Puig is quickly becoming the latter day version of Manny Ramirez. That is, an extremely gifted ballplayer whose eccentricities can be tolerated when things are going well. But when bumps on the team road appear, the behavioral issues become magnified and they can quickly tear a roster apart.
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I don’t know what the right move for the Dodgers is as regards Puig. Whatever message the organization is trying to send seems to be falling on deaf ears. It’s apparent that this is going to have to be remedied from within, and that’s where questions about dugout leadership come into play.
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As for today’s game, there’s a clear edge on the hill with Madison Bumgarner throwing against Paul Maholm. MadBum was not scintillating in his 2014 debut, although he emerged from that game with a 0.00 ERA. But the lefty is establishing himself as a legit staff ace, and he has some very impressive numbers against the Dodgers he’s likely to face today. Maholm is the quintessential back end starter. He’s generally going to give his team something along the lines of six innings and three runs. Not great, not terrible. But this is a #1 vs. a #5 and there isn’t munch doubt about which pitcher is more likely to put together the good game.
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The Giants are off to an excellent start, and while five games is obviously a very small sample, this team simply looks better already than they did perhaps at any point last season. Again, small sample, but the Giants have hammered the southpaws they’ve looked at thus far, which bodes well for them having success against Maholm today. I also have to believe that the Giants arrived in Los Angeles looking to serve notice that they’re going to be a force to be reckoned with this season, and winning this series is very important to them.
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Bumgarner at a cheap price is enticing, and the Dodgers could be a distracted entry right now. That makes them a little ripe for the picking and I’m willing to take a bite today. I’ll side with the Giants to grab a second straight win over their arch rivals.
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Wisconsin +1.5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Wisconsin is everything that is great about college hoops and Kentucky in my opinion is everything that is not great with college hoops. If you are going to go to school then go for 4 years. One and done players obviously have great talent, but they never graduate and they only are being used to win a title. Kentucky can go as far as their talent will take them, but remember they are just freshman and they will be going against an experienced Wisconsin team that is not going to let them walk right into the paint and get easy layups. This Badgers team plays great defense and unlike in the past they actually have a great offense. These guys have played with each other for a long time and this lineup has been the same all season. I think this game goes down to the wire and will be thrilling, but I think a well-coached experienced team will have the upper hand in this one in the final minutes. Take the Badgers.
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Florida/ UConn Under 127: C'Mon now, this is a classic Jeff Scott under looking play. We have two teams that play solid defense and slow the pace on offense, in a huge tournament game. All a recipe for a low scoring game. Both teams do shoot the 3-ball well but both also defense the Arc very well and only one team can hit FT's. The Gators have allowed just 56.6 ppg on neutral courts this year, including just 56 ppg in their last. The Huskies have played a few run and gun teams in the tourney, so their games have been a bit higher scoring, but still they held a strong Michigan State offense to just 54 points in their last game and have allowed just 66.1 ppg on neutral courts this year. Neutral courts usually mean tournament ball and that mean slower more deliberate paces and with two teams that play defense like these two can, its hard to see the offenses getting much going, especially in a cavernous place like Texas Stadium. I don't see this one hitting 120 points.
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Siena/ Fresno State Under 135.5: Saints games have gone 25-9-1 to the Under this year and they play good enough defense to keep this Fresno State team at bay. The Saints have allowed just 66 ppg at home and have given up just 60.4 pg in their last 5 overall. Fresno state has been playing solid defense of well as they come in allowing just 62.4 ppg in their last 5 games and the saints have scored just 63.4 ppg in their last 5 games. This is for all the marbles in the CBI Tournament and that should lead to a pretty slow pace and more defense down the stretch. Look for this game to be played in the 120s.
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Reds -130FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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We really like the Reds today in this bounce back game with Cueto on the hill. We expect Cueto to have a big comeback year for Cincy and he has had enjoyed some real success over these Mets, going 2-0 with a 2.37 ERA in three starts over the last two seasons versus New York. Gee wasn't super sharps for the Mets in his first outing and we expect the Reds to get to him early and often today.
Ben Burns
Miami Marlins -138
With Fernandez on the mound, I believe this price is quite reasonable.
Many kept waiting for Fernandez to come back to earth last season. It never happened. He ended up winning the NL Rookie Of The Year award, finishing the season with at 12-6 with a 2.19 ERA, in 28 starts.
That included a 7-1 record with a 1.34 ERA over his last 11 starts. Not bad considering that the Marlins lost more than 100 games!
On Monday, Fernandez picked up right where he left off. He struck out nine over six innings, en route to a 10-1 Marlin win over the Rockies.
That prompted Colorado manager Walt Weiss to comment: "He's really good. It's hard to think of anybody better in this league."
While Cashner admittedly has some impressive stats against Miami, they don't compare to Fernandez's 10-0 record and 1.21 ERA in 16 home starts.
The Marlins have beaten the Padres four straight times (and 6 of 7) here at Miami, outscoring them by a 25-5 margin. That includes an 8-2 win yesterday. As I said, I believe the price could be even higher. Consider Miami.
Freddy Wills
Chicago White Sox vs. Kansas City Royals
Play: Chicago White Sox +136
The White Sox have been hotter with their offense and I'll back them today and I think we get decent value because of Bruce Chen's success at home and against the White Sox as he posts a 3.06 ERA at home last year and has a 3.12 ERA the last 3 years vs. the White Sox over 12 starts. However, he will get the nod for a day start where he has not pitched well posting a 5.20 ERA over the last 3 years and 28 starts. John Danks will look to rebound from a bad year last year, and I think he will as he feels pressure in the #5 slot I think he's finally healthy and due for a bounce back year. He has pitched well vs. the Royals posting a 2.10 ERA over the last 3 year including a 1.29 ERA at Kaufmann Stadium over 3 starts. Danks is 19-7 in his last 26 starts on Saturday and he'll have the offense to support him this afternoon.
Patrick Webb
Colorado Avalanche vs. St. Louis Blues
Play: St. Louis Blues -194
St. Louis has dominated Colorado this season (3-0 and outscored the Avalanche 13-5) and although they will be without two key regulars (Steen and Jackman) they have a ton to play for as a win today can clinch their division and help them give them a game on Boston for the overall best record in the NHL. This game will feature two contrasts in styles as St. Louis is a puck-dominating machine (3rd Fenwick/ 6th Corsi) against a Colorado team that is routinely out-shot but has a very strong PDO number (Save% + Shot%).
I generally prefer to play favorites on the puck line, but Colorado's Semyon Varlamov has been insane over his last 5 games allowing only 2 goals in his last 4 starts for an insane 94.1% save percentage and the Avalanche have killed 14 of their last 16 penalties. The Blues' Ryan Miller should be well rested for this game and is coming off of a shootout shutout versus the Flyers. With goaltending being basically even give me the stronger 5/5 team which is St. Louis by a mile.
Jesse Schule
Cincinnati Reds at New York Mets
Pick: Cincinnati Reds
One might have expected the New York Mets would start the season 1-3, but it's perhaps a surprise to see Cincinnati with a 1-3 record after it's first four games. The Reds will look to bounce back in Game 2 of their series in New York, after dropping the opening game by a score of 4-3. Johnny Cueto (0-1, 1.29 ERA) will toe the slab for the visitors, still in search of his first victory. He pitched well against the Cardinals, allowing a single run on three hits, while striking out seven over seven innings. Cueto's numbers in day games over the last three seasons are nothing short of eye popping, he's 19-4 with a 2.00 ERA in 30 starts in the afternoon since 2011. The Mets hand the ball to Dillon Gee, who didn't factor in the decision in a loss to the Nats on Opening Day. He surrendered four runs on as many hits over 6 2/3 innings, and Adam Laroche hit a home run in the second inning of that game. Four games into the season, the Mets offense ranks near last in the majors with a .184 batting average, and while it's a small sample size, this comes as no surprise.
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Dallas +134 over TAMPA BAYFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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OT included. Kari Lehtonen was pulled in the Stars loss to Carolina on Thursday after allowing three goals on 16 shots (.812) but we suspect he’ll be back between the pipes today. We refuse to back Dallas when Tim Thomas is in net so therefore we will WAIT to pull the trigger on this one until the goaltender is confirmed. We’ll update this when that occurs.
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Tampa is coming off a 4-1 loss to Calgary one game after clinching a playoff berth. The Bolts will now try to gain home ice advantage in their likely first round matchup with the Canadiens but we’re not impressed with their play of late. The Lightning have three wins over their past seven games and two of those victories occurred against the Islanders and Sabres, both in OT. Conceivably, Tampa could be on a run of six losses in seven games and they’re not going to face a hungrier team than the Stars.
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Dallas is a point behind Phoenix for the last Wild Card spot but they have two games in hand on the Coyotes and this is one of those games. Outside of a four-game losing streak from March 14 to March 20, Dallas has been one of the NHL’s toughest outs. It’s a rare night when this determined bunch is outworked.The Stars goaltending has been shaky all year but at least Lehtonen is capable of playing well and when he does, Dallas rarely loses. That makes the Stars very worthy of a wager at his price. They continue to play hard every shift of every game as they fight for their playoff lives and with at least a 50% chance of winning or better if Lehtonen is adequate, Dallas holds all the value in this one.
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Detroit +140 over MONTREALFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Regulation only. Montreal defeated Ottawa last night by a score of 7-4. Like many of Montreal’s recent wins, the final score was much more flattering than the product on the ice and there is no way that the Habs should be this big a price over the Red Wings. Montreal scored 7 goals last night on 23 shots on net. Prior to that, Montreal lost in Tampa 3-1. The game prior, the Canadiens defeated Florida after being outshot 37-19 in that game. The Canadiens are not outplaying or outworking anyone these days. Their record of late says otherwise but it’s all smoke, mirrors and Carey Price. The Habs now return home from a four-game trip, having the NHL’s most misleading record over the past 11 games (9-2) which in turn has them overpriced.
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There’s always a chance of getting beat by good goaltending and losing a game because of poor goaltending and that applies here but it’s a risk worth taking. Detroit has Pavel Datsyuk back in the lineup. The Wings have won four straight and seven of its last 10. With better goaltending, the Red Wings record over that span would be even better. A win here and Detroit can pretty much punch their ticket to the playoffs. Playing outstanding hockey and with a will to win that is unmatched recently, Detroit is the better team that offers up too much value here to ignore.
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Ottawa +231 over N.Y. RANGERSFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Regulation only. The Senators are mathematically alive but everyone in that locker room knows that they can safely book tee-off times after their 82nd game because this team is not going to the playoffs. What’s interesting is that Ottawa has played their best hockey when it matters least and worst when it matters most. Now that they’ve been unofficially knocked out, Ottawa has some tremendous value here because they have nothing to lose and they’re actually playing well. Ottawa has recent wins over Tampa Bay, Chicago, Calgary and Carolina and they outshot Montreal last night by a wide 43-23 margin. The Sens also have a great history at this venue and they’re in a very good situational spot here as well.
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You see, the Rangers haven’t clinched yet but that’s a formality because they may not even need another point the rest of the way to make the playoffs. That’s not to say they’re going to lie down here but New York does return home from a tough four-game trip through Calgary, Edmonton, Vancouver and Colorado. The Rangers are also aware that they have winnable home games on deck against Carolina and Buffalo and could easily get caught a little flat here.
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N.Y. Yankees +117 over TORONTOFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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R.A. Dickey was throttled in his first start of the year in Tampa and while that’s just one game, there were some significant warning signs once again. Dickey’s groundball/fly-ball rate in that first start was 25%/69%. He also walked six batters and the Rays were attacking his first pitch and hitting it hard every time he was anywhere near the strike zone. We can assure you the Yankees will take a similar approach here. Furthermore, one has to wonder about Dickey’s confidence level coming into his second start after a shaky 2013 and after getting whacked in his first start. Remember, Dickey posted an ERA of 4.80 at the ACC last season and his ERA in April and May at home was 5.16. Dickey’s 2012 skills now look like a black swan and he’s most certainly a dicey proposition as he approaches age 40. Coming in as the favorite here, Dickey is not worthy of support.
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Meanwhile Michael Pineda is the Yanks fifth starter but could be their best when it’s all said and done. Pineda’s ceiling is so high that’s it’s sick and he comes in as our most undervalued pitcher to start the year. Pineda had the pedigree of a top prospect and he showcased those skills way back in his MLB debut in 2011. In 28 starts since he first came on the scene, Pineda has thrown 171 major-league innings and allowed just 133 hits for a BAA of .211. Major league hitters have never adjusted well to Pineda and that’s because he has filthy stuff that he throws with confidence. Pineda’s career has been derailed by injuries and he has not pitched at this level since 2011 so he does come with some risk. However, he has looked fully recovered from his chronic shoulder problems, having posted a 1.20 ERA in 15 IP this past spring and his skills have been fantastic. 9.6 K’s per nine with outstanding command and control. This kid could be the real deal but has become the forgotten man in the shadows of Masahiro Tanaka. We haven’t forgotten him.
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CHICAGO +111 over PhiladelphiaFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Cubbies were rather unappealing yesterday spotting a tag and the same holds true today for the visitor. Cliff Lee is almost a household name in this sport and deservedly so. Lee has been consistently good for years. He was vintage again last season while showing little decline. Lee did miss some second half starts with minor issues, like neck stiffness, the All-Star break, trade talk caution and a team going nowhere. But his only blemish was that 2H win total, the result of hr/f luck and poor run support. Velocity downtick and age will eventually factor in and he was whacked in the opener by Texas. We’ll certainly give Lee a Mulligan for that start but chances are he’s not going to get much run support here and if the winds are blowing out today at Wrigley, he could be in for another short outing. The Phillies have almost no value spotting a tag on the road, even with Lee going because the Cubs’ pitcher is just as good with even more upside than Lee.
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After a successful transition from bullpen to rotation in 2012, Jeff Samardzija had higher expectations entering 2013. He delivered in the first half with a 3.34 ERA but then tanked down the stretch (5.47 ERA, 1.51 WHIP after July). Should we be worried about Samardzija's second half swoon? We say no. Despite the 2H fade, Samardzija owns pretty impressive skills. Samardzija's excellent strikeout rate highlights his potential. He also made significant gains in his groundball rate last year to 48%, up from 45% in 2012. His ugly 2H ERA was in large part due to a nasty trifecta of hit%/strand% and hr/f bad luck. Samardzija has now joined the select class of starters with back-to-back outstanding skills seasons. He's also shown the ability to handle the increased workload and should continue to pile up Ks. The 2H slide was exaggerated by some bad luck, nothing more and it has caused him to be undervalued. In short, this is two straight years of excellent skills and that makes us buyers in this one.
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Milwaukee +174 over BOSTONFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Everything was positively tea and crumpets for Clay Buchholz in the first half of 2013. He started the season 9-0 with a sub-2.00 ERA. But a strained trapezius muscle put him on the DL in late June, shutting him down for most of the rest of the season. While he made four September starts, he dealt with shoulder fatigue in the playoffs. Because of his on-the-surface dominance a year ago, Buchholz comes into this season as one of the leagues most overvalued starters. Even if he's fully healthy, don't expect similar results for Buchholz in 2014. He was rather fortunate with his hit% and strand%. His xERA of 3.64 shows that he didn't have the skills of a sub-2.00 ERA pitcher. His hr/f was also depressed. Buchholz didn't give up a single HR in 63 IP at Fenway and that's not going to continue. He boosted his strikeout to a level not seen since 2008. Other than using his cutter a bit more (25%, compared to 20% in 2012), he didn't change his approach much, so expect some K rate regression as well. Even with these warnings, Buchholz posted solid gains on previous years; he keeps the ball on the ground and has decent command. But with long DL stints in two of the last three years, Buchholz has definitely earned his "F" health grade. While some will expect a repeat of his first half performance, Buchholz’s injury history and regression make him a very risky play in 2014.
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On the surface, control gains offset by strikeout rate loss leaves Wily Peralta a rather unknown commodity but he’s been on our radar for a couple of years now. Peralta’s late strikeout surge a year ago, along with his 95-mph four-seamer gives hope for so much more, especially with his consistent 50% groundball rate. Right-handed bats absolutely hammered Peralta’s change-up but that’s not a big concern because a simple repertoire tweak could make a huge difference. With a mid-90s fastball and dominant slider, Peralta has the raw tools to become a dominant pitcher and he and the Brewers are absolutely worth a play at this inflated price.
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COLORADO -1½ +165 over ArizonaFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Some things never change. The Rockies opened the year by losing three of four in Miami and as soon as they get inside their own barn they go nuts with 17 hits and 12 runs scored. There’s likely more of that today against Brandon McCarthy and a very fragile Diamondbacks squad. McCarthy is the antithesis of the term "model of health" pitching 135 and 111 innings the last two seasons. He heads to Coors Field, which is hardly ever a good recipe for starting pitchers, after giving up five runs in 6.2 innings to the Giants in his first start. Though McCarthy showed impeccable control last year (K/BB of 1.4), he struggled in the strikeouts department (5.1 K/9) and served up a career high home runs on average. There's very little reason to trust McCarthy against the Rockies, given he won't get many strikeouts and the propensity for a disaster start looms large (12 ER in 18 IP vs. Colorado last year).
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Before missing almost all of 2012 while recovering from Tommy John surgery, Jorge De La Rosa fell into the category of pitchers who were "one skill away" from turning the corner and becoming true assets. That one skill in De La Rosa's case was control. De La Rosa then went out and won 16 games last season with an ERA of 3.49 and his control most certainly improved. His groundball rate jumped last year to 47%, up from 34% in his previous season and that’s a significant improvement. In his first start this year, De La Rosa was hit hard by the Marlins but there were some positives signs that included six strikeouts in four innings and a 70% groundball rate. He’ll now face a D-Backs team that is hitting .200 against lefties in 58 plate appearance this year and that has one win in seven games. Losing is contagious, especially early in the year and right now the D-Backs with McCarthy on the hill and an already spent bullpen are clear fade material.
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Brandon Shively
Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals
Play: Washington Nationals -159
The Nationals have a score to settle with the Braves as this is a divisional rivalry and the Braves got the best of Washington last year. The Braves came away with a 2-1 win last night, but the Nationals out-hit the Braves 8-6.
The Braves are hitting .183 as a team over their first 4 games scoring 2 runs a game. They clearly do not have the bats to hang around in this game vs. Strasburg who I expect to be dialed in. After a dominant spring, Strasburg gave up 4 runs in the first inning before settling down vs. the Mets on opening day. He still fanned 10 batters in 6 IP and I like him to pick up where he left off in this game tonight.
The Nationals are hitting .295 on the season and are ranked 6th in the Majors with 72 total bases. Their .493 SLG% is ranked 3rd and they will get to Teheran tonight and get enough runs across the plate to secure the win for Strasburg. Bryce Harper is 5-for-10 vs. Teheran with 2 homeruns. Dernard Span and Anthony Rendon are the #1 and #2 hitters in the lineup and they are a combined 8-for-18 vs. Teheran as Span as a couple of triples of Tehran. I like the Nats to get an ample amount of baserunners on base and to cash in for us EASILY.
With Washington going 13-3 in their last 16 during game 2 of a series and going 4-0 in Strasburg's last 4 starts as a favorite dating back to last season, I have no problem laying the chalk in this game. The Braves are 9-24 in their last 33 games as a road underdog of +151 to +200 and are 0-4 in their last 4 games when the total is set at 6.5 or lower.
MLB Predictions.
Braves / Nationals Under 6.5
This will be the second starts for Julio Teheran and Stephen Strasburg as we begin to see teams going through their rotation once already. Both had starts worth forgetting, especially Strasburg. Strasburg got hit hard for 6 runs in his first start and finished with a WHIP of 1.17. This was on the road though, and if I learned anything from last season it was that Strasburg is not the same pitcher on the road than he is at home. On the road he can be hit and miss, but at home he can shut offenses right down. In 2013 he held a 1.73 ERA compared to 4.50 on the road. He also held opposing batters to a low batting average of .193. Washington is a pitchers' park, so it makes sense he has had found success here. He'll have the opportunity to get back on track against a Braves' offense that has been fluttering to start the year off, which corresponds to them hitting 4 straight UNDERs. Teheran participated in one of those games, allowing 3 runs in 6 innings pitched with a 1.33 WHIP. A fairly average start for Teheran. He finished with a 3.20 ERA in 2013 and was fairly consistent throughout the year. This ballpark always sets up nicely for a low scoring game when it's two capable pitchers on the mound. Strasburg always bounced back strongly last season after poor starts and always earned his money at home. I'll take the UNDER 6.5 at + money for Saturday night.