John Ryan
Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals
Play: Atlanta Braves +143
The simulator shows a high probability that Atlanta will earn an important upset win. Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 38-17 mark for 69% winners since 2008. Play against any NL team (WASHINGTON) that was a struggling offensive team from last season scoring 62% of their games over the last 2 seasons. Strasburg had a no decision in Opening Day start allowing four ER. Strasburg has added a new pitch to his fastball, curve, and change arsenal. He threw a slider 11 times in the game against the Mets. The Mets were not prepared for that offering, but the Braves lineup now knows to expect it. Strasburg did not have elite fastball speed on Opening Day and has developed the slider as a pitch to keep hitter's from cheating on fastball deliveries. It was effective, but the lowly Mets still managed 4 ER off of Strasburg. The Braves are a much better and more disciplined hitting club and I do believe they will get to Strasburg early.
Steve Janus
Colorado Rockies -122
Colorado's Jorge De La Rosa struggled in his first start at Miami, allowing 5 runs in just 4 and 1/3 innings of work. That's created great value on De La Rosa and the Rockies at home, where he is 13-1 with a 3.09 ERA over the last 3 seasons. I'll definitely take my chances on the De La Rosa against Arizona starter Brandon McCarthy, who is 9-14 with a 4.37 ERA over the last 3 season on the road. McCarthy is also 0-1 with a 6.00 ERA and 1.556 WHIP over 3 career starts vs the Rockies. In his lone start at Coors Field, McCarthy was tagged for 4 runs on 8 hits in just 6 innings of work.
Harry Bondi
CHICAGO CUBS (+120) over Philadelphia
One of the ways our baseball handicapper, Frank Drake, makes so much money is by going " inside the numbers" and finding underrated and overrated pitchers. You can get away with a poor pitching performance if your team bails you out occasionally but not over time so let's go for our fourth straight FREE WINNER with a Chicago Cubs squad that sends it's young ace to the hill over an overrated veteran. Philadelphia's Cliff Lee really struggled in the season opener allowing eight runs on 11 hits and only striking out one in five innings of work. But he received 14 runs of support and won the game. For the Cubs, former Notre dame footballer Jeff Samardzija pitched the way an ace should in his season debut against Pittsburgh on Monday going seven shutout innings and giving up just 5 hits. But he lost as the Cubbies failed to give him any run support. Today, these two pitchers get the results they should have gotten in the season opener. Wrong pitcher is favored here take the Cubs.
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Cincinnati Reds -140FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Cueto got tagged with a loss on opening day only giving up one earned run. Look for another strong performance from him here to get his first win. The Reds have really enjoyed playing at the Mets since they have beaten them 7 of the last 8 times they have played them in the Big Apple. The Mets are struggling out of the gate this season and they will struggle even more against Cueto and the Reds here.
Wunderdog
Philadelphia vs. Chicago
Pick: Chicago +116
The Phillies have gotten off to a hot start at the plate, scoring 26 runs in four games, but it is an illusion, as they were the third worst run producing team last season in MLB. The Phillies will send Cliff Lee to the mound who will tun 36 this season, and his best innings are behind him as he was shelled in his 2014 debut. Cubs starter Jeff Samardzija is approaching his prime, and the last two seasons he has allowed fewer hits than innings pitched while being the staff ace and work horse. The Phillies are 6-21 in their last 27 vs. a right-handed starter, and face a good one today.
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Connecticut vs FloridaFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Florida -6FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Florida was the #1 overall seed in the Big Dance and no surprise to be here, while UCONN upset quite a few brackets. I like Florida in this one, as they have beaten teams just as good as UCONN to get this point. UCONN has played great, but didn't have to get through any powerhouses. UCONN already has a win Vs Florida this season, and I don't see them pulling off the sweep.
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Kentucky vs WisconsinFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Wisconsin +1.5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Kentucky has gotten hot at the right time to get here, while the Badgers have been battle tested but pulled it out. I look for the Badgers to get it done in this one. The Wildcats are coming off 3 emotional wins, and even though this is a big stage it's hard to keep that going. The Badgers have been underestimated throughout the tournament, and it rings true here. The odds makers are taken advantage of the public's perception of Kentucky. The public is heavy on Kentucky right now yet the line is starting to move the other way.
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Connecticut vs FloridaFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: Under 127FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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We think that defense will dominate when the Florida Gators take on the Connecticut Huskies in the Final Four Saturday. Florida is allowing just 57.6 points per game over the whole year, thanks to leading the country in defensive efficiency while ranking 22nd in field goal percentage allowed and 25th in defensive turnover percentage. That defense has fueled a 30-game winning streak and it has continued in this NCAA Tournament with only UCLA getting out of the 50s in the four Florida wins. The Gators allowed only 19 field goals the entire game vs. Dayton in the Elite Eight! Do not sleep on Connecticut defensively also however, as the Huskies are 10th in the country in defensive efficiency and are actually ranked ahead of Florida in effective field goal percentage allowed in 17th at 44.7 percent. The ‘under’ is 25-10 in the last 35 Florida games vs. teams with a winning percentage above .600.
Ross Benjamin
Boston vs Detroit
Play : Over 207
This is an ideal situation to see a high scoring entertaining game. History has shown there's very little attention to detail being paid on the defensive end of the floor this late in the season, when the contest involves two teams far removed from playoff contention. The Celtics have gone over the total in 4 of their last 5, and 6 of the last 8-games. The Pistons have seen their last 6-games average a combined score of 215.6 points, and have gone over the total 66.7% of the time on the season. The Pistons have gone over the total in 23 of 28-games this season when playing their 6th game or more in the last 10-days. The last 2 meetings between these team this season have resulted in scores of 118-11 and 107-105.
Any team (Boston) with a total of between 200.0 to 209.5 that's coming off a home favorite straight up loss, versus an opponent coming off a road game in which both teams scored 100-points or more, has seen 44 of those 63-games (69.8%) go over the total during the last 5 seasons.
Sam Martin
Charlotte Bobcats at Cleveland Cavaliers
Prediction: Charlotte Bobcats
The Cleveland front office gave the Cavs a number of opportunities to make the playoffs - being "buyers" instead of "sellers" at the trading deadline and really wanting to make a push for that final playoff spot. It has to be that much more disappointing, then, that the Cavs fell short despite playing in one of weakest Eastern Conferences in memory.
That disappointment showed in last night's 19-point loss at Atlanta - a game that Cleveland could have pulled within one game of the Hawks for that #8 seed, but as it stands they are three games back with only five games to play and are virtually eliminated. Expect a huge letdown here tonight at home against Charlotte, and the travel, lack of rest, and having to deal with the disappointment might very well result in another blowout loss for the Cavs against a quality Bobcats team.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAY
Florida/ UConn Under 127: C'Mon now, this is a classic Jeff Scott under looking play. We have two teams that play solid defense and slow the pace on offense, in a huge tournament game. All a recipe for a low scoring game. Both teams do shoot the 3-ball well but both also defense the Arc very well and only one team can hit FT's. The Gators have allowed just 56.6 ppg on neutral courts this year, including just 56 ppg in their last. The Huskies have played a few run and gun teams in the tourney, so their games have been a bit higher scoring, but still they held a strong Michigan State offense to just 54 points in their last game and have allowed just 66.1 ppg on neutral courts this year. Neutral courts usually mean tournament ball and that mean slower more deliberate paces and with two teams that play defense like these two can, its hard to see the offenses getting much going, especially in a cavernous place like Texas Stadium. I don't see this one hitting 120 points.
2 UNIT PLAY
Kentucky -1 over Wisconsin: I feel that their wins to get here have been a bit more impressive and this team has really gelled over the last few weeks as well. I feel that the Cats length on the arc will not allow Wisconsin to to go crazy from long range, which is a big part of their game. Still overall the Cats have allowed just 41% shooting and 66.7 ppg, so they can play solid defense. The Badgers also play solid defense, as they allow just 63.7 ppg, but offensively I don't see them as having the fire power to stay with the cats here, especially if they are not able to hit the 3-ball. Look for the Cats to win by 5 or more here.