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3 UNIT PLAYFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Washington/ Cincinnati Over 8.5: Boy the Reds really put a hurtin on the Nats last night, winning by a 15-0 count. Well I feel that this Washington offense will look to come alive and put some runs on the board vs Mike Leake who struggles in this park. Mike Leake has an 18-12 mark in this park, but with a high 4.66 ERA, which would indicate allot of high scoring games. Mike also has a 7.59 ERA in his last 4 starts vs the Nationals and in his last 5 starts vs them there has been 9+ runs scored in each. The Nats do have a solid offense and should do some damage. The Reds showed last night that they have some good offense as well, even without Ryan Ludwick. The Reds pounded out 19 hits and 15 runs in the game. They also showed that the Nats pitching staff may have problems beyond the top three. Now Detwiler did have a good year last year, but he is facing a very good Reds offense and I expect him to have some problems today, plus he does have a career 4.34 ERA on the road. Not saying 15 runs will be scored in this one again, but I do expect the Reds offense to continue to hit well, while the Nats offense puts some runs on the board as well.
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TOP 5 TRENDS FOR TODAY
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The Miami Marlins are 2-10 in their last 12 games vs a left-handed starter.
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The Giants are 18-4 in Ryan Vogelsong's last 22 starts vs a team that scored 2 runs or less in their last game.
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The Under is 40-18-2 in the Braves last 60 games with the OU line set at 7-8.5
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The Rays are 13-2-1 UNDER in Cobbs last 16 starts as a favorite
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The Royals are 5-17 with Clark Kellogg behind home plate
Jack JonesFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Washington Wizards +4FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This is an excellent spot to back the Washington Wizards tonight. They come in on two days' rest since a loss at Toronto, so they'll be well-rested and ready to go as they host the Indiana Pacers Saturday.
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This is a great spot to fade the Pacers because they'll be playing the second of a back-to-back tonight. They're in a big letdown spot after losing to Western Conference power Oklahoma City last night.
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The Wizards have been playing well over the past couple months while going under the radar in the process. They have been way undervalued, especially at home where they are 23-8-1 ATS in their last 32 games. The Wizards are 33-16-2 ATS in their last 51 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
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This play falls into a system that is 64-31 (67.4%) ATS since 1996. It tells us to bet on home underdogs (WASHINGTON) - double revenge - 2 straight losses vs. opponent against opponent off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a home favorite. Bet the Wizards Saturday.
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Chicago White Sox +128FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Felix Hernandez is clearly one of the best in the game, but he can't be trusted at U.S Cellular Field, where the Mariners are 1-6 on the money line with him on the mound. He has an ERA of 4.75 in these seven starts, and that number is up to 5.30 in the last 3 - all Seattle losses. Dylan Axelrod had a solid spring (3.66 ERA) and should benefit from the fact the Mariners have never seen him. The White Sox are 24-5 in their last 29 against Seattle. Take Chicago.
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Detroit at MinnesotaFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Both the Detroit Pistons and the Minnesota Twolves are 5-2 to the under in their last 7 games overall. The under is 6-2 in the Twolves' last 8 games vs. NBA Central opponents, and 11-4-1 ATS in their last 16 home games. In recent meetings between these two teams, the under is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games. Play Pistons-Twolves under.
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Michigan -1½ over SyracuseFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Orange has beaten every offense they’ve seen into submission but this isn’t Marquette or California they’ll be playing. Sure, Syracuse held the potent offense of the Hoosiers to 50 points but when you watch that game, and we’ve watched it over and over, the truth is, Indiana just missed their shots. The Hoosiers were cold that day but had plenty of open looks the entire game. That’s not to take anything away from the Orange, as this teams’ defense has been nothing short of a stone wall, holding opponents in this tournament to a remarkable 39% on their 2s, and 15 % on their 3s. The Wolverines will not be as offensively inept and we’re not convinced that the Orange can keep pace.
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The Wolverines have what Syracuse doesn’t and that’s an NBA talent point guard that makes smart decisions. Mitch McGary becomes more beastly with each passing game and there should be opportunities available on the offensive glass for McGary and his teammates, where the Orange defense has been statistically normal in the tournament. Syracuse may control where they put their defenders in the zone but the Orange don't control where John Beilein's team gets its shots or whether they shoot contested shots. In Syracuse's 53-51 win over Michigan in the 2010 Legends Classic, the Wolverines moved the ball well and got good shots versus the zone. Michigan didn’t have the at least four future NBA players on the floor at the time as they do now. This Wolverines team shoots 38 percent behind the arc and now has Mitch McGary dominating inside. They’ve had time to prepare for this defense and Beilein has proved in the past that he can beat it with the right personnel. This time around he has precisely that.
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Kansas City +118 over PHILADELPHIAFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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John Lannan makes the switch from Washington’s Nationals Park and a great infield defense to Philadelphia’s Citizens Bank Park and a much lesser infield defense. Neither will work in Lannan’s favor. Lannan spent the majority of 2012 sputtering in Triple-A Syracuse, where he posted a 4.30 ERA in 24 starts with an ugly 86/50 K/BB. Lannan's only plus skill is his groundball tendency, which, combined with dashes of hit % and strand % fortune, have allowed him to out-pitch his xERA in each of his six major league seasons. There's nothing in his skill set that suggests long-term success but there’s plenty that suggests he’s going to implode at this park. Despite his good fortunes, Lannan still sports an ugly 1.51 WHIP in 64 starts over the past three years. This past spring, Lannan posted a 7.71 ERA in 21 innings over five starts. Those hard hit groundballs that were not finding holes in Washington will surely find them at this unforgiving park. The Phillies are 1-3 and the only reason they have one win is because Cliff Lee was able to shut down the Braves when the Phillies scored just two runs. They couldn’t win with Roy Halliday, Kyle Kendrick or Cole Hamels starting and with that awful pen, chances are they’re not going to win with this stiff going.
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The Royals have evened their record to 2-2 and have to be feeling pretty good after pounding out 19 hits yesterday in a 13-4 bashing of these Phillies. K.C. had just 17 hits in its previous three games in Chicago. It’s also worth noting that the Royals bullpen didn’t allow a single hit after Wade Davis gave up nine hits and four runs in the first four innings. Should this game be decided by the pens, one has to give a significant edge to the Royals. Luis Mendoza wasn’t terrible last season and that's saying a lot when you look at his history. 2H is where it all clicked, but even then he was only marginal. We’re not going to sugarcoat this and say Mendoza has breakout potential because he does not. His skills are mediocre and while his GB tendency offers a building block, it didn't help him all that much in '08 when he posted similar skills. It’s hard to see a path out of mediocrity for Mendoza but this isn’t about wagering on him. This wager is all about fading John Lannan, the Phillies bullpen and a struggling club that looks completely out of sync. The Royals bats woke up yesterday and Lannan is not likely to put them back to sleep.
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Arizona +115 over MILWAUKEEFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Diamondbacks are 3-1 and while it’s still early, we’d much rather be playing a team that’s won three of four and taking back a price than spotting a tag with a club that’s 1-3 and that has lost three straight. Losing is not easy to shake off, especially early in the year when losing can dig a hole that’s difficult to get out of. Mike Fiers (RHP - MIL) emerged as one of the NL's surprises in 2012 due to his quality off-speed stuff and deception in his delivery, but there are two things that make a repeat highly unlikely. His 88 mph fastball gives him very little wiggle room, especially as NL hitters adjust to his off-speed pitches. Second, his below average 8.3% swinging strike rate is correlated with the Aug-Sept beating he took (6.12 ERA, 1.6 hr/9). Fiers 2012 groundball/line-drive/fly-ball rate of 33%/28%/39% screams disaster. Fiers had a horrible spring too, pitching 19 frames and allowing 29 hits, 15 earned runs and walking eight for a spring ERA of 6.98. To suggest that Fiers is unappealing as the chalk would be an understatement.
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Patrick Corbin has earned the No. 5 spot in the Diamondbacks starting rotation and ended up claiming the job in convincing fashion, leading the staff in IP and averaging more than a strikeout an inning while compiling a 2.81 ERA in seven spring games. Corbin went 6-8 with a 4.54 ERA in 107 IP last year but don’t put too much emphasis on those numbers. There are some very good signs underneath the hood. Corbin’s control, strikeout rate and groundball % all improved in concert. His 2012 xERA of 3.72 combined with other skills confirm his readiness. Corbin is underrated with profit potential and in this spot against Fiers and the struggling Crew, that profit potential is likely to pay off right away.
SPORTS WAGERSFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Edmonton +162 over LOS ANGELESFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The Kings are still the champs and they just might be as difficult to defeat in this year’s playoffs as they were in last year’s. From our perspective, they are still the team to beat. That said, the Kings are just not winning enough games and Jonathan Quick has been too shaky for them to be in this price range over this dangerous guest. Los Angeles is just 4-4 over its past eight games. Returning home from a five-game road trip in their last game, the Kings beat Minnesota 3-0 but managed just 14 shots on net. L.A. has the Ducks on deck in Anaheim tomorrow and after taking three out of a possible four points from the Oil this season, there are no scores to settle here. The Kings are in the middle of the pack in the NHL standings. In that regard, they are in the same place as many other teams including Detroit, Toronto, Ottawa, Minnesota and St. Louis. The Kings are not in playoff mode yet and until that switch is turned on, a tag like this one against them is worth taking.
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The Oilers are three points back of the Blues for the final playoff spot in the West. They can’t afford to take a shift off, let alone a game. This young and talented group is determined to make the playoffs, meaning a strong effort from every player is very likely. There is more to like about the Oilers also. Edmonton is 4-0 in their last four games playing on one day’s rest and that applies here. The Oilers also scored four goals or more in four straight games, totaling 22 goals over that span before being shutout in Vancouver on Thursday. They’ve also allowed two goals or less in four of their past six. Frankly, the Oilers are playing too well to ignore taking back a tag like the one offered here in a game they most certainly are capable of winning.
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Tampa Bay +112 over N.Y. ISLANDERSFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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What a difference a goaltender makes. You can break down all the X’s and O’s you want in the NHL but when it comes right down to it, the club that receives the better goaltending is going to win way more times than not when only four to six goals are scored on a regular basis. Not only does goaltending impact the outcome more than any other factor, it also affects the mindset of the entire team. A soft goal will deflate a team while great goaltending lifts a team and instills confidence in everyone else. Case in point is the Tampa Bay Lightning. Here’s a team that has had awful goaltending for two years running. At the trade deadline, Steve Yzerman goes out and picks up Ben Bishop for Cory Conacher and the Bolts promptly respond by going into Carolina and beating the ’Canes 5-0. Carolina fired away 45 shots on Bishop and the outstanding young netminder threw a shutout. It lifted the entire team and that momentum and new found life is very likely to carry over to Bishop’s second start.
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The Islanders are in a serious playoff race. They are in eighth place right now with 40 points but there are four teams right behind them in striking distance. Should the Bolts win this one, they will be in striking distance too. The Islanders are playing well but this is a team that has proved over and over that they can’t be trusted when they’re expected to win. The Isles have defeated the Lightning twice in two games this season but the feeling this time around in the Bolts locker room is entirely different and it starts with confidence in their new goaltender and new found hope. The Bolts no longer will be required to score five goals to win a hockey game and that’s huge.
Brett Atkins
The defending World Series champs are off and running, as they've won three straight now, and don't appear to be slowing down anytime soon. The Giants raised their second World Series banner in three seasons Friday afternoon, and now they can celebrate with the home crowd by treating them to a Saturday afternoon win.
There's a bit of pride to this series, too, as the Giants (2010, 2012) and Cardinals (2011) have won the last three World Series.
I'm not going to list the pitchers in this one, cause I just think San Fran is the better value in its own field. But I will note Giants' starter Ryan Vogelsong threw seven scoreless innings against the Cardinals in his lone regular-season appearance against them last season, and then went 2-0 with 1.29 ERA with 13 strikeouts against them in last season's NLCS.
That should provide the confidence he'll need.
Take the Giants.
3♦ SAN FRANCISCO
Brad Wilton
Your comp play for Saturday is the Over in this afternoon's Yankees-Tigers contest at Comerica Park.
Detroit slugged their way to a home-opener 8-3 win and Over versus the Yankees on Friday afternoon.
The Over put the Tigers at 2 in a row Over the total after opening the new season with a pair of Unders. Chances of a third straight Over appear pretty good, as Detroit will get to face Phil Hughes who had been sidelined with his most recent back injury, but will give it a go for the Yankees this afternoon.
Not so sure Hughes is going to work more than 5 frames in this one, and the New York bullpen has been used plenty this spring already.
The Yankees have played Over the total in 3 of their 4 games already this season, and while their offense is certainly lacking without their injured sticks (ARod, Jeter, Granderson, and Teixeira), they have been able to come up with just enough to help aid their totals plays and tip them into the Over column.
I will stick with the percentages, and play the Yanks to make it 4 of 5 Over to start the season.
3♦ N.Y. YANKEES-DETROIT OVER
Jeff Benton
Saturday freebie is the Washington Wizards to upend the Indiana Pacers at the Verizon Center.
Bad spot for the Pacers who just played last night in a "marquee" game versus the Oklahoma City Thunder, and got beat like a drum.
They may not win on the road, but Washington has won their last 8 games at home, and that includes wins over playoff-bound Chicago, Memphis and Milwaukee.
The Pacers have been playing some streaking basketball - 5 of 6, and still 8 of 10 overall wins after last night's dud - and they have also won 9 in a row over the Wizards coming into this Saturday night showdown, but Washington had proven a challenge with the points, covering 2 of the last 3 meetings, and 4 of the last 6 overall versus Indy.
Upset alert here as Washington looks to protect their house and move to 9 in a row on their home hardwood.
1♦ WASHINGTON
Craig Davis
Today's free play is on the NY Yankees at plus money with Phil Hughes on the mound.
This free play is nothing more than a value play, because getting the Yankees at this price, even though they've dropped three of their first four games of the season.
The only pitcher who has earned his money thus far is the oldest guy on the roster... lefty Andy Pettitte.
He pithced the Yanks to a 4-2 the other night vs. Boston... New York's one and only win of the season thus far.
I expect Hughes to get his first win of the year and the Yankees second as they battle without half their starting lineup.
No Jeter, no A-Rod, no Teixeira, no Granderson. What you've seen from the Yankees over the past week is NOT what we'll see, but there's still enough talent on this roster to get the job done... as long as Hughes does his job.
New York is losing games every way possible, but that stops today. Detroit is a great team and probably better, overall, at this point in the season, but even the good teams lose now and then.
Today is just as good as any for the Tigers to slip up with an erratic Max Scherzer on the mound.
Take Hughes and the Yankees as your free play of the day.
2♦ N.Y. YANKEES
Scott Delaney
My free winner is on the Cincinnati Reds laying a cheap price to the Washington Nationals, as I think the National League favorites may still be hungover after being pummeled in the series opener last night. I was pretty shocked to the see the Nationals get manhandled like that, and well, now the Reds have won three in a row and are hosting a matinee that plays into their favor.
I won't list the pitchers in this one, but you have to be confident with right-hander Mike Leake on the bump, as I think is the better pitcher in this clash, with the Nats handing the ball to Ross Detwiler.
Leake will be out to prove something, since he started last season 0-5 with a 7.71 ERA. His 3-2 lifetime mark against the Nationals should help raise the confidence level. With Detwiler, the Reds will take a crack at a southpaw who was 2-6 with 4.38 ERA on the road last season. And even though he sports a a respectable 3.13 ERA vs. Cincinnati, he's also 0-3 against it.
But again, I'm not listing the pitchers cause I think the momentum is in Cincinnati's favor. Remember, this is a team that won 97 games last season on its way to a National League Central title.
And with the Nationals stealing the preseason headlines this year, the Reds will be out to silence most of those raving, by trying to sweep their first series of the season.
Take the Reds.
2♦ CINCINNATI
Chris Jordan
I've read every article you could possibly imagine, and I've listened to Louisville coach Rick Pitino spout off about Wichita State's defense over and over. But the fact remains, the Cardinals are the predominate team here, and it'll be the one to push the pace and force the Shockers into a shootout.
But I'm not ready to lay double digits in this game, so I'm going to play the Over in this one, and look for the total to land on at least 137 points.
It's so hard to keep up with Louisville's speed, and it's not only with the guard play, but how quick to its bigs move to the ball. The Cardinals utilize stellar foot movement in the paint, and they're able to utilize a strong drive-and-kick offense with any lineup on the floor.
Wichita State has a lineup of good athletes to challenge the Cardinals, I know that. But as much as the Shockers use their talented guards to attack their opposition, but at some point their athleticism will induce the confidence this team plays with, and you watch what happens when they start draining 3s against Louisville.
Wichita checks in on Over runs of 10-4 after a straight-up win, 5-1 in non-conference play and 4-1 in neutral-site game. With Louisville, the high road is on winning runs of 10-1 on neutral courts, 7-0 after an ATS cover, 8-0 after a straight-up win and an identical 8-0 overall.
This one goes high.
4♦ OVER
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Louisville -10 over Wichita State: I feel that Cinderella is done here. Wichita has had a nice run and really pulled some shockers (Pun intended) along the way, but this Louisville team is the best team in all of basketball and they will prove it here. Louisville is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games and they should have covered vs Oregon. They have outscored their opponents by 21.8 ppg in the tourney and 8 of their last 9 wins overall have been by at least 12 points. This is a dominating team with very few flaws, if any. Wichita State comes from the Missouri Valley conference and just havent played may games of this caliber through the year. Yes the beat Pitt, Georgetown and Ohio State in the tourney so far, but how much does this team have left. I also give a big coaching edge to Pitino. He has had 5 days to breakdown game film of this team and you give him that much time and he will have his team more than ready. We also have to look at the Ware situation. This game is in his home town and you can bet that his mates will be going all out for him, just like the 2nd half of the Duke game. Not just the talent gap is working against the shockers, but the coaching gap and emotional gaps as well. Look for the Cardinals to win by 17 + here.
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Michigan/ Syracuse Over 130.5: The Wolverines may just be one of those teams that can solve the Syracuse zone. One of the was they will look to do that is by pushing temp, so that the Orange don't have a chance to set up defensively. Michigan had that same game plan vs Florida and in their uptempo style they were able to put 79 points on the board vs that tough Gator defense. The Wolverines are also one of the best shooting teams in the Nation (6th) and they are 18th in 3pt shooting and that means they should be able to shoot over that Zone. The Cuse have allowed 45.8 ppg in the tourney, but no team they faced is as good a shooting team as the Wolverines. Defensively Michigan has been tough this year, but they have allowed 70.3 ppg away from home and 66.7 ppg in their last 10 games overall, so a good Syracuse offense in an uptempo game should be good for at least the high 60 in this one. I do expect an uptempo pace here. I also expect the wolverine to shoot well vs this zone, while their defense also gives up plenty vs a good scoring Syracuse offense. Look for his one to be played in the upper 130's.
MLB Predictions
Chicago / Atlanta Braves Under 8
Since sending this out last night the total seems to have dropped to 7.5 runs. The Braves took the first game last night by a score of 4-1. There were only 11 hits in the game combined form both teams. The Cubs have dropped to 2-2 on the season, and so far they’ve scored just 7 runs over 4 games (1.75 runs per game). The Braves are 3-1 now and scored 16 runs in their first two games, but just 5 runs over their past two. The Cubs will be sending Carlos Villanueva to the mound to make his Chicago debut. The ex Blue Jay went 7-7 last year in 38 appearances (16 starts) with a 4.16 ERA. He had a great first 11 or so starts before falling off in September. In Spring Training he had a 3.57 ERA over 22.2 innings pitched. The Braves will go with Julio Teheran as their 5th starter tonight, and there are high hopes for him after a terrific spring training. Teheran went 3-1 with a 1.04 ERA, .082 OBA, and 0.62 WHIP in 26 innings of work. Although it is just spring training allowing just 3 earned runs over 26 innings of work and striking out 35 batters is very impressive. He has had limited big league action, but in AAA in 2011 he went 15-3 with a 2.55 ERA. He followed that up last year with a very rough season going 7-9 with a 5.08 ERA. He has shown potential but it will be interesting to see how he does this year. With his first start coming at home vs a Cubs team that hasn’t had much success offensively after the spring he had I think we will see him get off to a good start. The UNDER is 4-0 for the Cubs this season, and dating back to last season the UNDER is 42-20-2 in the Braves last 64 overall. The UNDER is also 8-3 in these two teams last 11 meetings. I’m on the UNDER 8 here tonight.