Wunderdog
Seattle at Chicago White Sox
Pick: Chicago White Sox
Felix Hernandez gets the ball for Seattle in this one, and he has been locked-up by the Mariners with a nice long term contract. He always generates interest from gamblers, so he is quite frequently over-priced. He has been a marginal pitcher on the road, where he is just 62-59 in his career. The Mariners are also negative money when he pitches on the road as a favorite. Dylan Axelrod will face the Mariners for the first time, and the pitcher usually has the advantage as the hitters have not seen him yet. The Mariners have not been good vs. a winning team at just 7-20 in their last 27, and are just 1-6 in Hernandez' last 7 starts on the road vs. a winning team. Go with the White Sox.
Harry Bondi
ARIZONA (+125) over Milwaukee
The Milwaukee Brewers may be without their two best hitters tonight against Arizona. Even if they play, Ryan Braun and Aramis Ramirez are really banged up and a long way from 100%. Braun did not play Friday because of spasms on the right side of his neck and Ramirez left last nights game with a sprained left knee in the fourth inning. Mike Fiers takes the hill for the Brewers and after a good start last year the right hander was 3-6 with a 6.99 ERA over his final 10 outings. Fiers was not even suppossed to be in the Brewers' rotation but Chris Narveson was a disaster this spring forcing Milwaukee to go with Fiers. Arizona sends out lefty Patrick Corbin who has looked great in the spring. Diamondbacks make it two in a row over the Brew Crew tonight!
Jeff Scott Sports
4 UNIT PLAY
Dodgers/ Pittsburgh Under 6: With Clayton Kershaw on the mound I only see one team having any shot at at putting more than 1 run on the board. This Pittsburgh offense has struggled out the gate, ranking last in rpg (1.50) and last in BA (.127). Now they take on Clayton Kershaw, who threw 9 shutout innings at the Giants in his opener. Clayton now has an 0.90 ERA in his last 7 starts dating back to last year and he has a career 2.32 ERA in this park. Let's also note that the Dodgers are huge favorites in this game and Clayton has a 1.19 ERA in his 62 career wins. Pittsburgh may have horrible offense, but their pitching has been solid, ranking 4th in ERA and 1st in WHIP. AJ Burnett did allow 3 ER's in his first start and he has allowed 6 ER's in each of his last 2 starts vs the Dodgers, but he will be taking on a team that is 25th in runs scored and 27th in hitting. In a pitcher's park with with two bad offenses and one of the best pitchers on the planet you can expect no more than 4 runs in this one.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Washington/ Cincinnati Over 8.5: Boy the Reds really put a hurtin on the Nats last night, winning by a 15-0 count. Well I feel that this Washington offense will look to come alive and put some runs on the board vs Mike Leake who struggles in this park. Mike Leake has an 18-12 mark in this park, but with a high 4.66 ERA, which would indicate allot of high scoring games. Mike also has a 7.59 ERA in his last 4 starts vs the Nationals and in his last 5 starts vs them there has been 9+ runs scored in each. The Nats do have a solid offense and should do some damage. The Reds showed last night that they have some good offense as well, even without Ryan Ludwick. The Reds pounded out 19 hits and 15 runs in the game. They also showed that the Nats pitching staff may have problems beyond the top three. Now Detwiler did have a good year last year, but he is facing a very good Reds offense and I expect him to have some problems today, plus he does have a career 4.34 ERA on the road. Not saying 15 runs will be scored in this one again, but I do expect the Reds offense to continue to hit well, while the Nats offense puts some runs on the board as well.
ATLANTA -165 over Chicago: Last night I won with Atlanta on the run-line, but today I will go with a straight ML play. The Atlanta offense didn't tee-off on Feldman like I thought they would, but I expect a better showing from them today. Carlos Villanueva had a good start to last year for the Jays, but in his last 7 starts he went 1-4 with a 6.59 ERA. He is also just 16-21 with a 4.36 ERA on the road in his career. The Braves offense had a very good spring and have continued that as they rank 7th in runs scored (5 rpg) and should be able to get to Carlos in this one, after their lackluster showing last night. Offensively the Cubs are one of the worst, scoring just 1.75 rpg (29th), while hitting just .133 (29th) and will have troubles putting up run on Julio Teheran, who had just 1 starts last year, but looked very good in the spring, posting a 3-1 mark with a 1.04 ERA. I just don't see Chicago coming up with enough offense to win this one.
TOP 5 TRENDS FOR TODAY
The Miami Marlins are 2-10 in their last 12 games vs a left-handed starter.
The Giants are 18-4 in Ryan Vogelsong's last 22 starts vs a team that scored 2 runs or less in their last game.
The Under is 40-18-2 in the Braves last 60 games with the OU line set at 7-8.5
The Rays are 13-2-1 UNDER in Cobbs last 16 starts as a favorite
The Royals are 5-17 with Clark Kellogg behind home plate
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Minnesota/ Detroit Under 197: These teams met once this year and 187 points were scored in that game. I don't expect much more in this one. The Detroit offense has really been struggling of late as they have averaged just 90.3 ppg in their last 8 games. On the road the Pistons have struggled to score all year long, averaging just 93.1 ppg on just 43.3% shooting. Not sure that Detoit will put more than 93 on the board vs a Minnesota team that plays good defense at home, allowing just 95.1 ppg there. The Minnesota offense has been playing better of late, but still the average just 95.9 ppg at home and Detroit has allowed 97.9 ppg in their last 6 games. Should not really be an uptempo game and feel with 2 week offenses we should have no more than 190 scored here.
Brooklyn/ Charlotte Under 196: This is a very big game for the nets and I really expect them to bring the defensive intensity here. It hasn't bee hard for the Nets to play defense against Charlotte anyway of late. In the two meeting this year Charlotte has scored just 78 and 81 points vs the Nets, while dating back to last year they have averaged just 80 ppg in their last 4 meetings in this series. Overall this year Charlotte has averaged just 90.6 ppg on the road, while the Nets have allowed just 95 ppg at home. The Bobcats don't play much defense on the road, but the Nets only score 96.8 ppg a home. Brooklyn should have a huge lead in the 4th quarter, which should have them taking it esay down the stretch. I see a 102-84 type of game here.
2 UNIT PLAY
BROOKLYN -14.5 over Charlotte: Charlotte is not in a good spot, coming off the Miami game at home last night and now traveling to take on the Nets the next day. This Charlotte offense has struggled to score for much of the year and have put up just 78 and 81 points in their two meetings with the Nets this year. The Nets won those games by 21 and 16 points. Brooklyn is off a loss to the Bulls, but that home loss was on the Heels of a very long trip and teams usually do much better in their 2nd game back than their first. Brooklyn still has playoff seeding to fight for so they should be fully focused here and coming off a loss should have them even more focused. Nets by 17+ here.
Michael Alexander
Detroit Pistons vs. Minnesota Timberwolves
Play: Minnesota Timberwolves
Minnesota has won the last five straight against the Pistons by an average of 12.6 points, including a 105-82 victory at Detroit 11 days ago. That began a relatively impressive 4-2 stretch for the Timberwolves. Minnesota HC Adelman is 25-16 lifetime against the Pistons, who are 1-2 thus far on a four-game road trip.
Timberwolves are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. loss, 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400, and 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Ross Benjamin
San Antonio -7.5
Atlanta is a dismal 0-9 ATS this season with a -11.8 point per game differential versus opponents averaging 103 or more points per game. This will be the Hawks 3rd game in 4 days, their 8th game in 12 days, and come off a humiliating home loss to Philadelphia last night. In spite of not having stars Manu Ginobli and Tony Parker tonight the Spurs are still a very deep team that will expose a very tired opponent.
Any favorite with a winning record on the season versus an opponent that comes off a home favorite of 6.0 or more straight up loss by 10 points or more, and that opponent has a winning percentage of between .510 to .600 is 24-5 ATS (82.8%) since the start of the 1996 season. Play on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points.
Teddy Covers
Arizona vs. Milwaukee
Pick: Arizona
The Milwaukee Brewers have opened up the new season the same way they closed out the 2012 campaign – losing games at home in large part due to a dismal bullpen that can’t close out games without trouble. The results don’t lie. Milwaukee is 1-3 through their first four games of the season here at Miller Field. Their bullpen has been lit up, allowing runs in all four games.
And to make matters even worse for Milwaukee, their lineup is ice cold and banged up already. They’re playing without Corey Hart, who opened the season on the DL. Slugging third baseman Aramis Ramirez hurt his knee last night, downgraded to ‘Out’ for this game. And former MVP Ryan Braun has a very stiff neck, a question mark to play this evening as well. For a squad that has scored only 13 runs through their first four games, the injury situation certainly isn’t going to help.
Arizona is finding ways to win, just as they did under Kirk Gibson two years ago when they shocked the baseball world by winning the NL West title. Last night, it was two runs scoring on a wild pitch, snapping a tie game late. The previous night, the Diamondbacks overcame four separate deficits to beat St Louis in 16 innings. Look for a strong season debut from promising D-backs southpaw Patrick Corbin tonight, leading to another Arizona victory.
Sean Murphy
Atlanta vs. San Antonio
Pick: San Antonio
The Spurs are coming off a disappointing double-digit loss in Oklahoma City on Thursday, but I fully expect to see them bounce back against a soft road team in the Atlanta Hawks on Saturday night.
Tony Parker is expected to miss tonight's game, and of course, the Spurs are already without Manu Ginobili, but this is an extremely deep team, and one that has done just fine in that duo's absence this season.
San Antonio did enjoy an off day on Friday, while the Hawks were crushed by the 76ers on their home floor. This doesn't look like an ideal bounce-back spot for Atlanta, playing on the second of back-to-back nights, on the road against a team that has had their number over the years.
Note that the Spurs have won six of the last seven meetings in this series, both SU and ATS. The last three matchups here in San Antonio have gone the Spurs way by 15, 16, and 23-point margins.
The Spurs are outscoring the opposition by more than 11 points per game at home this season, and enter this game playing some of their best defensive basketball of the year, having held seven of their last nine opponents under 100 points. The Hawks might hang around for a while tonight, but I'm confident we'll see the Spurs eventually impose their will, pulling away for a comfortable victory in the second half.
John Ryan
Boston vs. Montreal
Play: Over
The simulator shows a high probability that more than five goals will be scored in this game. A sub-projection shows that one of these teams has a chance at scoring 4 goals on their own merit. Montreal is 14-5 OVER (+9.9 Units) against good possession teams-averaging 3+ more shots on goal than opp over the last 2 seasons; 14-7 OVER (+7.9 Units) when playing their 4th game in 7 days this season. Boston is 18-9 OVER (+9.7 Units) after playing a home game over the last 2 seasons; 13-5 OVER (+8.1 Units) after playing a game where 3 or fewer total goals were scored over the last 2 seasons. Take the OVER
Jimmy Boyd
Syracuse/Michigan Under 130½
Both of these teams have impressive defenses with Syracuse getting the slight edge in points allowed. This matchup falls into a system to play the under on neutral court games when one of the team has beat the spread by 30 or more points in their last five games, in this matchup it is Syracuse, and they are playing against an opponent that has gone over the total by 48 or more points in their last 10 games. This system is 64-31 (67%) to the under.
You should also play the under on neutral court games when the total is between 130 to 139.5 points and one team, in this matchup it is Michigan, is forcing 14 or less turnovers per game and coming off three straight games where they also committed 14 or less turnovers. This system is 170-117 (59%) to the under over the last five seasons. When teams are not committing or forcing turnovers there are fewer fast break points which takes more time off the clock leading to the under.
Jeff Alexander
Atlanta Braves -1½ +131
I went big with the Braves run line yesterday and cashed in a 5* play on them. Though I don't like them big again, I still think they are showing value on the run line against a Chicago club that is 19-49 in its last 68 road games and 11-42 in its last 53 in the 2nd game of a series. The Chicago offense is really struggling (.168 on-base %) and I believe its struggles will continue against Teheran, who had a 1.04 ERA in six spring starts. Braves have won 3 of their last 4 with the Cubs by 2+ runs. Bet the Braves on the run line.
Jesse Schule
Pittsburgh +1½ -120
The Pirates have not had a great start to the season, losing three of four. Their staff ace A.J. Burnett got off to a rough start, losing his first start of the season to the Cubs. Burnett allowed three runs on six hits over five innings, but recorded 10 strikeouts in a losing effort.
I expect the veteran right-hander to bounce back with a solid outing in a pitcher friendly park in L.A. tonight. The power hitters in the Dodgers lineup haven't had a lot of success against Burnett, Adrian Gonzalez and Matt Kemp are a combined 1-for-10 with five strikeouts against him.
Not many players have good career numbers against Kershaw, but Andrew McCutchen is one of those. He's hitting .357 with a home run in 144 career at bats. Gaby Sanchez has also had success against Kershaw, he's 3-for-7 with a home run in past meetings.
The Pirates should be able to keep this one close.
Chip Chirimbes
Indiana Pacers vs. Washington Wizards
Play: Washington Wizards
The Pacers had an opportunity to clinch the Central Division crown last night but a failed fourth quarter where the scored only eight points lead them to defeat again st Oklahoma City. Washington who has won eight straight at home are 0-3 against Indiana this season as the Pacers have won the last nine meetings. John Wall missed all three losses and the Pacers will find that the Wizards are a totally different club when Wall in in the line-up. In a game that will come down to the final buzzer we will take the points.