Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday April, 7

Marc Lawrence

Atlanta Hawks at Charlotte Bobcats
Prediction: Charlotte Bobcats

The Bobcats host the Hawks in an NBA Southeastern duel in Charlotte Saturday night with history working heavily against Atlanta this evening. For openers, the hawks enter off a same season revenger against Detroit last night knowing they are 14-25 SU and 10-19 ATS in games after playing the Pistons. In addition they have a same season revenge up next with Boston knowing they are 2-11 SU and 2-10-1 ATS away with no rest in games before contesting the Celtics. To make matters worse they are 4-11 SU and ATS the last 15 games on this floor. With that look for the Bobcats to avenge a 21-point walloping they suffered in their most recent gathering with Atlanta this season here tonight in this upset maker. We recommend a 1-unit play on Charlotte.

Ben Burns

Kings @ Sharks
PICK: Under 5

These teams just faced each other at LA, on Thursday. That game proved very high-scoring, as the teams combined for a whopping 11 goals. The Sharks won 6-5. That will likely have some expecting another high-scoring affair for tonight's rematch.

The second game off a home-and-home series often has an entirely different "feel" from the first though. Just because the first is high-scoring, the second will not necessarily be the same. In fact, the opposite is often true.

San Jose's Joe Thornton had this to say about explaining the high-scoring game on Thursday: "Both teams got into penalty problems early on and that resulted in a couple of power-play goals for both teams. That's probably why we saw more goals ..."

For the season, LA games are still averaging a mere 4.6 goals. Note that the Kings have seen the "under" go 10-5-3 when attempting to avenge an earlier loss AND 7-1-4 after having allowed four or more goals in their previous game. (SJ has seen "under" go 11-8 after allowing four or more.)

That's two straight meetings at LA which have been high-scoring. However, the final score was just 2-1 the last time that the teams met at San Jose. Thursday's result notwithstanding, I feel this one has a better chance of finishing below five goals than it does of finishing above that mark. Consider the Under.

David Chan

Toronto Maple Leafs @ Montreal Canadiens
PICK: Montreal Canadiens

The 35-36-10 Toronto Maple Leafs blow into Montreal to take on the 30-35-16 Canadiens on Saturday night.

This is the final game of the year for each club.

Ben Scrivens is scheduled to start opposite Peter Budaj between the pipes.

So while these team's have nothing to play for anymore, the Habs do play with "revenge", as they've allowed a combined 13-goals in losing three straight to the Maple Leafs in Montreal. Toronto has won three of five so far this year, most recently 3-1 at the Bell Center on March 3rd:

“We have to get ready to give 100% in our last game now. There’s nothing else to save it for,” says Budaj.

Montreal is also looking to atone for yet another lacklustre effort, falling 2-1 in a shootout at Carolina on Thursday.

Toronto is coming off a 3-2 overtime win over Tampa Bay on Thursday. It was an important win for the team:

“We’ve got great fans,” said Dion Phaneuf. “We struggled at home for awhile, no one was happy about it. We have not been playing the way that we want to play.

“But we wanted to finish our year off, our last game at home in front of our fans, the way we (did).”

It goes without saying that Montreal wants to do the same.

Scrivens is 0-2-1 with a 3.98 GAA in his last three road starts.

Toronto got the win it was looking for to end the year, and checks out of this game early; you may want to consider a second look at the Canadiens tonight!

Guillermo Sanchez Perez

Hurricanes @ Panthers
PICK: Under 5

Carolina is 33-32-16 (13-18-9 on the road). Florida is 37-26-18 (20-9-11 at home). The last time these team's played together, the Hurricanes won 3-1 in Carolina on March 21st, 2012. The O/U is 0-4-1 the last five in the series.

Florida finally punched its ticket to the postseason when the Sabres lost to the Flyers on Thursday.

But this is still an important game for the home side, as it sits just two points ahead of Washington for the Southeast Division crown, with one game remaining for each. The Capitals hold the tie-breaker.

So that means that Florida must secure at least one-point over the Hurricanes, or have Washington lose to the Rangers on Saturday.

Carolina is coming off back to back victories over Montreal and Ottawa by identical 2-1 scores.

“You don’t want to take your foot off the gas just because we’re out of the playoffs,” 'Canes goaltender Cam Ward said.

Carolina would love to play spoiler here obviously, so we can expect this team to be ready to play.

In each club's final regular season game of the year, expect these division foes to once again battle to a low-scoring affair.

Play the "under"!

Jim Feist

Kings vs Clippers
Pick: Over

The Clippers are a good team over the total as they have a terrific offense and a weak defense. The over is 4-1 in the Clippers last 5 home games and they face a Sacramento team that could care less about defense, nowhere near the playoffs, and one ranked 30th in the NBA in points allowed (103.9 pg). The over is 10-4 in the Kings last 14 games playing on one days rest and 6-2 over the total in their last 8 road games. Play the Kings/Clippers Over the total.

Adam Ross

Carolina Hurricanes vs. Florida Panthers
Play: Florida Panthers

The Florida Panthers have been on a terrible slide but backed into the playoffs when the Buffalo Sabres lost on Thursday.

The Saturday game is the difference in winning the division and being the number 3 seed or entering the playoffs at the number 8 seed.

This will be the first time back in the playoffs for the Panthers since they were swept by New Jersey in 2000. The pressure of breaking that streak was getting to them.

Now that they are in regardless, the pressure has come off and the Panthers will play loose and with confidence, get the easy home win and take the number 3 seed where they might have a chance to win a series.

The juice is worth the risk. Take the Florida Panthers.

Scott Spreitzer

Dallas Mavericks at Memphis Grizzlies
Prediction: Dallas Mavericks

Yes, the Mavs just beat Memphis on Wednesday, but I expect them to make it twice in less than a week. Both teams played last night, but Memphis has been a much busier team of late. The Grizzlies have put up decent spread numbers when playing in the second of back-to-back nights, but this will be their fifth game in seven days and they are off the emotional win over the Heat. That, and the fact Dallas is another "tough out" makes for a difficult situation for the home team, in my opinion. Meanwhile, Dallas is coming off an OT home loss to Portland, but tonight's marks just their seventh game in 14 days. Mavs' starters combined to play more than 160 minutes last night, but they're actually on a 4-0 ATS run playing the second of back-to-back nights after doing so. Dirk Nowitzki and Ian Mahinmi each grabbed 10 boards against Memphis on Wednesday. Mahinmi is expected to rejoin the team tonight after missing last night's contest. Whether he does return or not, I believe Dallas is going to be able to make up for last night's horrible, 10-point third quarter in the loss to Portland...a game the Mavs led by 12 points at the half. Dallas has been dominant as a road dog of 6 points or less, currently on a 28-9 ATS run. Meanwhile, Memphis enters on a 1-7 ATS slide when laying points. I'm grabbing the points with Dallas as they look to pull into a 5th place tie with Memphis in the Western Conference standings.

Charlie Scott

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres
Play: Los Angeles Dodgers

I like the Dodgers in the Dog role with starting Pitcher Chris Capuano who was a productive crafty lefty Last year as a Met vs the weakest lineup in the National League the San Diego Padres.

Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets
Play: Atlanta Braves

I expect the Braves to bounce back off their Opening Day loss Thursday with pitcher Jurrgens over the Mets who I believe will struggle when Santana is not pitching. The Braves should handle Mets knuckleballer Dickey who just came out 2 weeks ago and announced to everyone that he was sexually abused as a child and wrote a book about it ?

New York Yankees vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Play: New York Yankees

Last year under Girardi the Yankees were a profitable team betting as a dog. Throw in that the Yanks come off a loss & the loss was a Mariano Rivera blown save. Yankees bounce back in what is becoming a quality rivalry between the Rays & Yankees.

Rob Vinciletti

Dallas Mavericks vs. Memphis Grizzlies
Play: Memphis Grizzlies -3.5

The Grizzlies come in with revenge for a loss to Dallas just the other day and are off their biggest win of the season as they snapped the Miami Heat 17 game win streak while The Mavericks are in off a buzzer beater home loss to Portland in over time. So we have one team with momentum, the other without. For the system we want to play against road dogs of less than 5 off a home favored loss with no rest if they were off a prior home favored win. These short road dogs have failed to cover 19 of 25 times since 1990. Look for Memphis to avenge their loss to Dallas.

Dave Cokin

Atlanta Braves vs New York Mets
Pick: New York Mets

I'm not nearly as high as many analysts are on the Braves and I have Jair Jurrjens as one of my more overrated pitchers. RA Dickey can be baffling with that hard knuckler and I like him and the Mets today.

Jeff Scott Sports

3 UNIT PLAY

Atlanta -108 over NY METS: The Atlanta had a tough showing vs Johan Santana in the opener, but they should have an easier time of it in this one. R.A Dickey has pitched better as a member of the Mets than when he was in the AL as he is 19-22 with a 3.08 ERA in a Met uniform, while he went 22-28 with a 5.42 ERA in the AL, but one his remained constant and that is he is not a good starter out the blocks. Last year Dickey went 2-6 with a 4.38 ERA in March, April, May, while for his career he has gone 12-17 with a 4.72 ERA. Not a good starter and will be facing a good hitting Atlanta team that looks to get on track after their 1-0 loss on Thursday night.R.A. is also just 1-4 with a 3.38 ERA in 7 starts vs the Braves in his career. Jair Jurrjens was one of the most consistent pitchers for the Braves last year, with a 13-6 mark and a 2.96 ERA and he has pitched very well vs the Mats, going 8-4 with a 2.96 ERA in 13 starts vs them, while he is 2-2 with a 2.94 ERA at Citi Field. He will be taking on a Met's team that has little pop and it showed on Thursday night as they put up just 1 run on young Tommy Hanson. Today their task gets a bit tough as Jair is the better pitcher and he has the better offense behind him that is looking to break out. Look for Atlanta to get into the win column today.

SPORTS WAGERS

Washington +106 over CHICAGO

Starlin Castro is far and away the best player on the Cubs. After him, things really get pretty ugly. From starting pitching to everyday players to the bullpen, you would be hard-pressed to find a team with less appeal than the Cubbies. The rebuilding has begun in Chicago, so when they’re favored they automatically become a fade because they’re very likely going to lose more than 100 times. Matt Garza would be a welcome addition to any team. He’s a quality pitcher with nothing but upside. However, winning games with this offense to support him is going to be difficult. Gio Gonzalez comes over from the AL and he gets a sweet taste of the Cubbies in his Nationals debut. The knock on Gonzalez is the number of walks he issues but in his last two starts in the spring he only issued two in 10 frames while striking out 13. The guy has electric stuff. Even with 90 walks and pitching for Oakland, Gonzalez won 16 games. If his control improves, he can be dominating, just as he was against all four NL teams he faced in 2011. The Nats taking back a tag with Gonzalez in against the Cubbies is a wager every time. Play: Washington +106 (Risking 2 units).

San Francisco +115 over ARIZONA

Madison Bumgarner is a Cy Young candidate and it’s not often we’re going to find a tag on him, especially if he pitches like he did in the second half last year (2.70 ERA, 1.09 WHIP). It’s hard to find a discouraging trend here. Gains in strikeout rate and control are particularly exciting. His raw stuff is improving as well. His fastball velocity has increased the last two seasons to 92 mph and while the Giants lost yesterday, the offense looked so much more dangerous than they did a year ago when they were last in runs scored. The Giants got rid of a lot of dead weight and added some nice offensive pieces in Melky Cabrera, Angel Pagan and let’s not forget that Buster Posey is back hitting third, where he went 2-4 yesterday with a walk added in. Daniel Hudson had a 3.49 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in 222 IP in 2011. While his base skills were good, they weren't sub-3.50 ERA good. He was aided by a 6% hr/f. He hasn't peaked yet, but there's probably some regression coming in 2012. Regardless, Bumgarner taking back a price is a must play. Play: San Francisco +115 (Risking 2 units).

Los Angeles +107 over SAN DIEGO

The Dodgers are 2-0 while the Padres are 0-2. In facing the Padres top two in the rotation, the Dodgers scored 11 times at Petco. The Padres scored three times on the Dodgers pen in the opener after Clayton Kershaw came down with the flu and were subsequently shutout yesterday. It’s early, but we’d much rather be on the 2-0 team taking back a tag than a young 0-2 team that is seeing BB’s. After missing 2½ seasons with two Tommy John surgeries, Chris Capuano revived his career in New York, notching 11 wins and 168 strikeouts. A career best xERA says he deserved even better. He fanned a career-high 8.1 hitters a game. These are both better-than-average ratios and produce a command rate above the benchmark we look for in starting pitchers. Dustin Moseley relies on pinpoint control for success of which he has not had much. His inability to exploit PETCO (4.05 home ERA) doesn’t help and history suggests that he'll be hard-pressed to win games. As the chalk, Moseley and the Padres should be avoided. Play: Los Angeles +107 (Risking 2 units).

JR O'Donnell

Milwaukee Brewers -118

Today's game slated to have the first pitch thrown at 4:05 PM EST, has all the makings of a pitchers duel. Adam Wainwright (STL) for the Cardinals missed all last year after undergoing Tommy John surgery. He is 66-35 in his career, with a career 2.97 ERA, 1.20 WHIP & 3:1 K to BB ratio. He seems ready to go, and previous to that surgery he was one of the elite pitchers in the game. He will in all probability have a 80-90 maximum pitch count. He was a pitcher that got by on the great command/control that he had in placement of his pitches. Unfortunately, normally the velocity returns much quicker than the control or the command. His mound opponent, Zack Greinke (MILW) of the Brewers is just a little over .500 overall, but has had two very good years in his last two, and seems to be coming of age. He was 16-6 last year with a 3.83 ERA, and has a good chance to improve. He averaged 10.54 K's for every "9" innings pitched. Most importantly he had 4.47 strikeouts for every "1" walk. Lastly the second half of the season he was 9-3, with a 2.59 ERA in "15' starts.

DOM CHAMBERS

For my free selection, let’s take a look at the Indiana Pacers to cover against the Boston Celtics.

The Pacers are playing well right now, having won and covered four straight games. There could be a let down as they had a big win over Oklahoma City on Friday.

But I expect the Pacers to be able to bounce back and be focused. Their opponent is the Celtics and that will get their attention.

Boston has lost their last two games, both against elite teams in the league, the Spurs and the Bulls.

The Celtics have gone 1-2 straight up and ATS against the Pacers this season.

The Pacers have been in groove offensively, averaging 106.2 points in their last five games. They are shooting 48.7 percent from the field in those games.
Offensively, the Celtics will not be able to keep pace with the Pacers. The Celtics average 90.4 points on the road. Boston on the road is 11-15 straight up and ATS. Indiana is 18-7 at home.

Take the Pacers.

2♦ PACERS

For my free selection, let’s take a look at the New York Mets to win against the Atlanta Braves.

R.A. Dickey gets the start for the Mets. He is coming off a strong spring training, holding opponents to under .200 batting average and his ERA is 3.63. He has been a reliable pitcher for the Mets the last two seasons.

Last season, he has some success against the Braves as he had a 2.60 ERA and held their average to .190 opponents' batting average. He went 1-2 against the Braves, but that is more due to lack of run support last season.

If the Mets can give him a bit more support, he should be very successful.
Braves’ starter Jair Jurrjens is coming off a tougher spring training, He had a 5.81 ERA, walking 12 batters over 26 1/3 innings.

The Braves have concerns about their offense and that was confirmed in the opener as the Braves were shut out by the Mets, 1-0.

Take the Mets.

2♦ METS