JEFF BENTON
Your Saturday freebie is the Philadelphia 76ers at home over the Orlando Magic.
Both teams have taken a turn for the worse as the regular season winds down, but I believe the damage in Dwight Howard/Stan Van Gundy saga is the worse of the two situations going on.
Sure, Philly has lost eight of their last twelve straight up, but they are still within shouting distance of the Atlantic Division lead, and they did handle Orlando in the first meeting of the season in Philadelphia at the end of January. The 76ers are a positive 19-11 straight up at home this year, and bring a 17-13 spread mark in those home games into tonight's action.
As for Orlando, the china has been broken. You know what they say about broken china, it can never be repaired. That is the situation that now exists, as Dwight Howard has now fractured this Magic team. Orlando was just pounded at home by an injury-thinned New York Knicks team, as the Magic losing streak is at a season-high five in a row straight up and against the spread.
Orlando has also failed the point spread in eight of their last ten on the road. At least the 76ers still believe in coach Doug Collins, it does not appear as though that is the case anymore for the team from Orlando.
Both sides in a must-win spot, but my money is on the 76ers to get the win and the cover, as Orlando continues to slide.
1♦ PHILADELPHIA
CRAIG DAVIS
Tonight's free play is on the Dallas Mavericks plus the number against Memphis at the Fed Ex Forum. Seriously Vegas, do you think we're that stupid?
Dallas is playing its third game in as many days, and as old as they are, it's going to take its toll sooner than most teams. So why is Memphis only laying 3? Who in their right mind could legitimately not take the Grizzlies in this spot?
Zach Randolph is back. OJ Mayo is playing better. Rudy Gay has been possessed recently. Marc Gasol is as steady as they come. Folks, I'm telling you right now... this Memphis team might challenge San Antonio and OKC to be the representative for the West in the NBA Finals.
I'm not kidding... they are THAT good.
So why am I releasing the Mavs as a free play? Because they are desperate can't afford to keep losing games like these. Plus, I think Vegas sees it that way as well. This line is still low enough to endorse the Grizzlies, but it's the Mavericks who need it more.
These two teams meet several times per year, and aside from a few lopsided blowouts they are usually fairly competitive. That always favors the underdog, no matter how small the line is.
Go ahead and take Dallas as your small Free Play of the Day.
2♦ DALLAS
MATT RIVERS
Here is a NBA winner for you for this Saturday night card, as I take the Lakers as the small road chalk in Phoenix.
Both clubs were on court last night, and both suffered losses.
The loss the Suns absorbed was a little more hurtful, as Phoenix is still trying to climb into the 8th and final playoff spot, while Los Angeles is still holding steady for the 3rd seed at this writing.
True the Lakers are on a 1-8 spread slide, while the Suns have gone 9-2 against the spread their last 11 at home, but I believe Los Angeles is ready to get revenge for a shocking 12-point road loss to Phoenix back on February 19th.
Prior to that loss, the Lakers had won four in a row, and seven of the previous eight series meetings against the Suns.
If the Lakers are to be considered a threat this postseason, they will need to step things up on the road. Tonight they do just that.
Lakers as the road favorite to cover.
2♦ L.A. LAKERS
Baseball free play for Saturday is the Cardinals to make it a perfect 3-0 start to the young season. Thus far the defending World Series champions have been listed as the underdog in their first two games, and all they have done is come out and win both.
Today's game is priced closer to a pick, but how can you go against the Cardinals right now? No LaRussa, no Pujols, no Carpenter, no problem! Now it is Adam Wainwright's turn, and Wainwright is making his first regular season start since the 2010 season. He will match pitches against Zach Greinke who did allow 15 hits, and 11 runs to score in splitting his pair of October playoff starts versus the Redbirds in last year's postseason.
It's obvious the Cards are on a mission to show the public that losing Albert the Great is a mere blip on the radar screen. I am a believer, at least for this week.
Take the Cardinals to open at 3-0.
4♦ ST. LOUIS
SCOTT DELANEY
On the heels of last night's Run Line winner on the Angels, my free winner is going to be on the Atlanta Braves over the NY Mets, while I'm expecting to see Jair Jurrjens take care of business on the hill.
Matter of fact, it's time for the Braves to put a wrap on last season's disastrous close, as they finished the 2011 campaign mired in a 9-18.
Star outfielder Jason Heyward needs much more than time in the cage after hitting just .227 with 14 home runs and 42 RBI last season, and he just might find that on the road in this season-opening series.. This past string he matched last season's batting average while belting four home runs.
Actually, what I saw from the Grapefruit League was second baseman Dan Uggla and first baseman Freddie Freeman dominate from the plate, so I'll expect to see those bats in Grapefruit League action, as they each stroked seven home runs.
Look for a combined effort, as Jurrjens finished the exhibition season with two strong starts and has looked rock solid since experiencing right knee discomfort that sidelined him in September. At the same time, the Braves will get their bats going.
2♦ BRAVES
CHUCK O'BRIEN
My free winner tonight is going to be on the Over in the National League Central showdown between the St. Louis Cardinals and Milwaukee Brewers. Yesterday the Cards blasted Milwaukee, 11-5, with a total of 7-1/2 on the board for Jaime Garcia and Yovani Gallardo.
Today, Adam Wainwright and Zack Greinke are on the hill, and I think if they can score 16 runs against the opening day starters, they can produce at least 8 against these two.
Wainwright saw his 2011 campaign shelved after Tommy John surgery, and though he did show this spring he is fully healthy, he could come into this one - his first REAL start of the season - a bit tentative. I already know St. Louis will be monitoring his innings closely, mainly cause of his elbow, but when you have that hanging over your head, you tend to expect to get yanked and rather than pitching to win, you pitch not to lose. That's where the Brewers' bats can come alive.
On the other hand, Greinke is in after a tough outing against the White Sox on Monday, in his spring finale, and that might stick with him. Now, Greinke finished 16-6 with a 3.83 ERA in 28 starts in 2011, but his 3.83 ERA does not impress me, and against a rival like this, one that just put up 11 runs in the series opener, and one that stole the show in Miami earlier this week... well, you get the point.
The numbers never lie when it comes to handicapping totals, and Wainwright is in on over runs of 9-3 as the pup, 8-3 as the road pup, and 9-1 in the middle game of a three-game set. St. Louis has also gone over in 10 of 14 on the road.
Milwaukee is in Over runs of 4-0 as the chalk, 14-3 overall since last season and 9-1 in Central division play. With Greinke, the high number is on winning runs of 4-0 at home, 14-3 in intradivision play, 4-1 against winning teams and 24-7 overall. Take this one high.
2♦ OVER
CHRIS JORDAN
My free winner tonight is going to be the Under in the Boston Red Sox/Detroit Tigers game in Motown game, with my mindset on Josh Beckett and Doug Fister keeping this one low with stellar outing on the mound.
Conceivably Boston's ace, Beckett is looking to forget about September's horrendous performances that helped to the team's demise. And the thing is, he had an overall great campaign, and just failed to produce - as did most of the Red Sox - late in the season. But make note, Beckett has 99 wins since 2005, the fifth-highest total in the Majors during that time frame. He has been an All-Star in three of his six seasons in Boston, and this is a game he would love to have, to start the season, while answering the call after Detroit won the first meeting with Justin Verlander up for the Tigers.
Now I'm not endorsing Beckett or the Sox, I just think he'll be on top of his game, and challenging Fister nicely.
Detroit's right-hander will be looking to pick up where he left off for Detroit last season when he posted an 8-1 record and a 1.79 ERA in 11 appearances once arriving on July 30, in a trade from Seattle. He looked good for most of the spring, turning in rather quick innings by throwing plenty of ground-ball pitches.
Beckett is in on under runs of 10-1 against the A.L. Central, 14-3 against winning teams, 13-4 on the road and 23-8 overall. On the other hand, Fister has stayed under in four of five as the installed chalk and seven of eight overall. Play this one low.
2♦ UNDER
SPORTS WAGERS
MILWAUKEE -4½ over Portland
You’re well-advised to get on this one early, as the line is likely to move up at least a point by game time. As playoffs approach, both of these teams are on the outside looking in and neither team can really afford to lose. In that respect, we much prefer a Bucks team at home, playing well over a Trail Blazers squad that has eight road wins in 27 tries. Additionally, the Blazers are coming off an emotional road win in OT in Dallas last night. Incredibly enough it was the first time since Jan.23-24 that Portland had won back-to-back games. This is a club that relies heavily on one guy, LaMarcus Aldridge. If he has a bad or even average game, they have very little chance. Aldridge has more than a few nagging injuries at the moment and after playing 44 minutes last night and giving it his all, expect a lesser performance here. Both teams will play their third game in four days and tail end of back-to-backs. The difference is the Bucks were barely breaking a sweat in a win at home over Charlotte last night while Portland went into OT against the Champs. This is Milwaukee’s third straight at the Bradley Center and after winning five of their past six and creeping back into this thing; they’re not going to let this exhausted one-man show get in the way of their quest. Play: Milwaukee -4½ (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
Jimmy Boyd
Golden State Warriors +3.5
Both of these teams played last night, but I believe Golden State has the edge at home catching points tonight. The Nuggets are a poor 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games playing without a day of rest while the Warriors are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games when playing without rest. The fact Denver won and Golden State lost last night is also significant because the
Nuggets are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games following a win and the Warriors are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games following a defeat. The Nuggets just haven't shown they can be trusted laying points. They are 6-15 ATS in their last 21 games as a favorite and 7-17 ATS in their last 24 games as a road favorite of 4.5 points or less. The Warriors are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog. We'll take the points.
John Ryan
Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates A
Prediction: Philadelphia Phillies
5* graded play on Philadelphia as they take on Pittsburgh in the second of this three game series set to start at 7:05 PM ET. I also like adding a 5* amount using the Run Line. Although second baseman Freddy Galvis impact on today?s game could be minimal, he is an excellent defensive specialist. His bat has come around as well. The 22-year old made a spectacular defensive play ending in a double play that got ace starter Roy Halladay out of a two-on nobody out first inning jam.
In the National League last year, the two most powerful runs scored were the second and third runs. The earlier they occurred in a game, the greater the chances that team would win the game. Teams that scored one run in a game won 9.6 percent of the time. But teams that scored two runs won 26 percent, and teams that scored three runs won just over 40 percent of their games. In other words, preventing a second run increases a team's odds of winning by about 17 percentage points, and preventing a third run increased them by about another 15 percentage points. No other runs moving the scoreboard from 3 to 4, 4 to 5, or 5 to 6 had as much impact on winning percentage as the second and third runs scored.
So, with the Phillies incredible starting pitching that sees Halladay, Lee, and Hamels pitch three of every five days, having Galvis at second base makes all the sense in the world. The problem will arise, and it will be a good one, is what happens when Chase Utley is ready to return. Only time will tell, but with two chronic knees, Utley?s ?big show? days may be numbered. If he returns 95% or better then the Phillies have either the second baseman of the future or a great trade bait come the trading deadline July 31.
The simulator shows a high probability that the Philadelphia Phillies will win this game comfortably. I also like adding a 5* amount using the Run Line. Pittsburgh was shutout by Roy Halladay and the Phillies defense in their home opener and Pittsburgh is only 6-23 losing 15.8 units per one unit wagered using the money line after getting shut out over the last three seasons. Moreover, Pirates skipper Hurdle is just 5-17 losing 15.3 units per one unit wagered against the money line in home games after a game with a combined score of two runs or less in all games he has managed since 1997.
Roy Halladay has tremendous control and one of the best walks-to-strikeouts in all of baseball. However, after a team faces Halladay, they then have to face Cliff Lee, who threw the most strikes, 70% of all pitches, of any pitcher in the majors in 2011. Based on the strike zone along he threw 58% of pitches in the strike zone and this shows that he forced batters to try to hit pitches that were out of the strike zone and the result were routine easy outs. Only Justin Verlander, who went 26-6 and won the American League Cy Young and MVP awards in 2011, and Roy Halladay had better WHIP ratios than Lee.
The current members of the Pirates have batted just .164 in their respective careers when facing Lee spanning 55 at-bats. Rod Barajas is hitless in 17 at-bats in his career facing Lee.
The Phillies offense will score far and away more runs than needed to get this win. Take the Phillies for a 5* play using the money line and a 5* play using the Run Line.
MLB Predictions
Detroit Tigers -106
These two teams met on opening day with the Tigers winning 3-2. After blowing a save in the top of the 9th the Tigers went on to load the bases and cash in a run in the bottom of the inning for an opening day win. The Tigers outhit the Red Sox 10-5 on the day, with 3 of Boston's 5 hits coming in the 9th inning. Take note that the Red Sox walked Miguel Cabrera 3 times on Thursday. If Boston plans to do that again on Saturday it might come back to haunt them with Prince Fielder in the 4 spot (a 1-2 punch that Detroit needed and got this off-season). Josh Beckett had a great season last year going 13-7 with a 2.89 ERA, .103 WHIP and .211 opponents batting average. This spring he has pitched well with a 0.95 ERA over 19 innings of work. Detroit's starter Doug Fister went 11-13 last season with a 2.83 ERA, 1.06, and .237 opponents batting average. Although the 11-13 record doesn't look good we need to remember that Fister started the season in Seattle where he got almost no run support. With Detroit Fister was superb in the regular season going 8-1 with a 1.79 ERA, 0.84 ERA and .206 opponents batting average. At home (with both Seattle and Detroit) Fister was 6-6 last year with a low 2.35 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and .233 opponents batting average. Take note that the Tigers are 9-0 in Fister's last 9 starts, and 6-0 in his last 6 as a favorite. Dating back to last season they are 20-6 in their last 26 games at home, and 36-15 in their last 51 overall. Boston is just 2-10 in their last 12 road games dating back to last season, and 1-10 in their last 11 road games vs a right-handed starter. Look for the Tigers to follow up a home opener win with another one behind Doug Fister who has been great with the Tigers.
Bob Balfe
Rockies / Astros Over 9
Jamie Moyer is a great story, but he has lost a lot in his arm and at 49 years old will not be pitching 2 hit games. In my opinion Lucas Harrell is not a quality MLB pitcher and the last time he played the Rockies he was rocked. If you like offense I would tune into this one. Take the Over.
Sixers -5
The Sixers are not playing their best basketball, but this Magic team is finished. None of the players are happy and Van Gundy has one foot out the door already. This should be a slop fest from start to finish. Look for the Sixers Defense to hold Orlando down. Take Philly.
David Banks
Philadelphia 76ers -4.5
We are sure that ESPN had the best of intentions when it scheduled this week's Saturday Night Special between the Orlando Magic (32-23, 28-27 ATS) and the Philadelphia 76ers (29-25, 27-26-1 ATS) from the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia, PA at 8:00 ET. After all, this seemed like a good matchup when Philadelphia got off to a 20-9 start this season and sat atop the Atlantic Division for a huge chunk of the year, and even when Orlando was sitting at a nice 32-18 a little over a week ago. However, both teams have now fallen on hard times.
Orlando's problems begin off the court, as its locker room would make for a great soap opera right about now. It was reported on Thursday morning that Head Coach Stan Van Gundy heard from upper management that Magic superstar Dwight Howard had asked them to fire Van Gundy earlier this season, which seems plausible given Howard's displays of immaturity throughout his career. Howard denied those claims, but he then looked to only be going though the motions in a nationally televised 96-80 home loss to the Knicks that same night, accumulating only eight points and eight rebounds in nearly 40 minutes. That marked the season-high fifth straight loss for Orlando both straight up and against the spread while getting outscored by an average of -10.0 points during the steak. The Magic averaged 92.0 points on 43.8 percent shooting in those losses, but the most disturbing aspect of the slump is that the proud defense allowed 102.0 points per game on a ridiculous 51.7 percent shooting! Orlando is now also just 4-6 straight up and a bad 2-8 ATS in its last 10 road games.
The 76ers' problems have been entirely on the court, which is not a good thing either. Philadelphia has gone only 9-16 since the 20-9 start, including just 4-8 in the last 12 games. The Sixers are coming off of possibly their worst loss of the season too, a terrible 99-78 loss here at home to the 20-35 Toronto Raptors where they managed to score only seven points in the entire fourth quarter. That embarrassing loss marked the fourth time in the last eight games that the 76ers failed to score even 80 points! Can it be that Philadelphia's great start was the result of facing a weak schedule to begin the year? After all, the 76ers are just 3-13 vs. teams in the Sagarin Top 10 this season. It is even incredibly possible that they can go from being in first place at 20-9 in a strike-shortened season to being out of the playoffs entirely, as Philadelphia has now been reduced to being the seventh seed in the East just 1 games of eighth place New York and three games ahead of ninth place Milwaukee, and it finishes the year by playing nine of its last 11 games on the road.
These teams have met twice this season with the home team winning straight up each time, although Orlando is 2-0 ATS in those encounters. The Magic covered as 7-point underdogs in a 74-69 loss here in the City of Brotherly Love on January 30th before a handy 103-87 win in Orlando on February 15th. Of course, that was all before Dwight-gate took center stage.
Dave Price
Sacramento Kings +8.5
The Kings have won or lost to the Clippers by 8 points or less in each of the last 5 meetings. We'll take the points as I expect this trend to continue Saturday. The Kings are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 road games, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5 points. The Clippers are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Take Sacramento.
John Ryan
Orlando Magic at Philadelphia 76ers
Prediction: Philadelphia 76ers
5* graded play on the Philadelphia 76ers as they take on the Orlando Magic set to start at 8:05 PM ET. The simulator shows a high probability that Philadelphia will win this game by seven or more points. The Magic are a mess period and whether Howard went to management or not to have Van Gundy dismissed, the perception and rumor are there to make it quite real. The 76ers have fallen out of first place and have drifted down the Eastern Conference standings. They are coming off a most bizarre game, where they scored 55 points in the first half adn then managed only seven points in the fourth quarter against the Toronto Raptors. Still, their issues pale in comparison to the intensifying rift between Van Gundy and a split locker room. Supporting this graded play is a system that has produced a record of 27-7 for 79% winners since 1996 Play on favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after being beaten by the spread by 48 or more points total in their last ten games against opponent after being beaten by the spread by 48 or more points total in their last seven games. The 76ers will get the job done because they have a team that has been unified all season and a team that has the full faith, trust and respect of their very good and vastly under rated head coach Doug Collins. Take the 76ers.
Jack Jones
Milwaukee Bucks -4.5
The Milwaukee Bucks are showing solid value Saturday as a mere 4.5-point favorite over the lowly Portland Trail Blazers. While the Blazers are still mathematically alive for the playoffs, they simply are in rebuilding mode after trading away Gerald Wallace and Marcus Camby.
Meanwhile, the Bucks have been surging over the past month ever since trading for Monte Ellis. Milwaukee is now 12-4 SU & 10-6 ATS in their last 16 games overall. They have scored 104-plus points in 13 of their last 17 games while giving up less than 100 points in 11 of their last 15 contests.
Portland is comng off a hard-fought 99-97 overtime victory over the Dallas Mavericks last night, which will have them very tired heading into this one. It was the first time they have won consecutive games since late January. This will now be the 5th game in 7 days for the Blazers.
The Blazers are 2-14 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 110 or more points over the last 3 seasons. Portland is 0-7 ATS after successfully covering the spread in 2 or more consecutive games this season. Milwaukee is 8-1 ATS after a win by 6 points or less this season. The Blazers are 8-20 ATS as a road underdog of 6 points or less over the last 2 seasons. Bet the Bucks Saturday.