Jeff Alexander
Lakers/Suns UNDER 199
The Suns have been an unders machine this season as odds makers have failed to adjust to them not being as explosive offensively. They have especially been a strong unders bet when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points this season, going 18-8 UNDER in these games. The under is 27-11 in the Suns' last 38 vs. the Western Conference, including 5-0 in their last 5 vs. Pacific division foes. Plays Under on home teams when the total is between 190 and 199.5 points (PHOENIX) - a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a winning team in April games - are 69-36 (66%) since 1996. We've only seen an average of 190.1 total points in this situation. Bet the Under.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
Atlanta -108 over NY METS: The Atlanta had a tough showing vs Johan Santana in the opener, but they should have an easier time of it in this one. R.A Dickey has pitched better as a member of the Mets than when he was in the AL as he is 19-22 with a 3.08 ERA in a Met uniform, while he went 22-28 with a 5.42 ERA in the AL, but one his remained constant and that is he is not a good starter out the blocks. Last year Dickey went 2-6 with a 4.38 ERA in March, April, May, while for his career he has gone 12-17 with a 4.72 ERA. Not a good starter and will be facing a good hitting Atlanta team that looks to get on track after their 1-0 loss on Thursday night.R.A. is also just 1-4 with a 3.38 ERA in 7 starts vs the Braves in his career. Jair Jurrjens was one of the most consistent pitchers for the Braves last year, with a 13-6 mark and a 2.96 ERA and he has pitched very well vs the Mats, going 8-4 with a 2.96 ERA in 13 starts vs them, while he is 2-2 with a 2.94 ERA at Citi Field. He will be taking on a Met's team that has little pop and it showed on Thursday night as they put up just 1 run on young Tommy Hanson. Today their task gets a bit tough as Jair is the better pitcher and he has the better offense behind him that is looking to break out. Look for Atlanta to get into the win column today.
ARIZONA -122 over San Francisco: (Added) The D-Backs are ready to take this division over and tghey showed it last night by smacking around their top rivals top pitcher. Last night the D-Backs got 5 ER on 6 hits, including 2 HR's off Tim Lincecum and now they get to face Madison Bumgarner, who is off a mediocre 13-13 season. He had a decent 3.13 ERA and he is 3-0 with a 2.53 n his last 5 starts vs Arizona, and while he went 1-0 in 2 starts vs them on the road last year he was hit a bit in the two games, allowing 13 hits in 12.67 innings, while posting a 4.21 ERA. Last year his record would have been stronger had the Giants not been last in the majors in scoring and while they probably won't be last again, they will still struggle to score and they have struggled vs Daniel Hudson, who is 3-2 with a 2.60 ERA vs them in his last 5 starts. Arizona has the much better offense and they are looking to make a statement with this series. I look for them to squeak out another winning in game 2 of the series.
2 UNIT PLAY
LA ANGELS -1.5 (+115) over Kansas City: (Added) Limited writeup here. I had this play nlast night and I will come right back to it.The Angels won 5-0 last night and without much help at all from their new toy, Pujols. Today he gets on track and should push the Halos to another 5+ run win. Hochevar is 0-3 with an 8.02 ERA in 4 starts vs the Halos, while Haren is 2-0 wth a 1.54 ERA in his last 5 starts vs the Royals. Another easy win by the Angels today.
Wunderdog
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona D-Backs
Play: San Francisco Giants
The Arizona Diamondbacks have had the San Francisco Giants’ number recently, as yesterday's win moved their winning streak to six straight. They will have a difficult time today vs. Madison Bumgarner, who is a young and budding star on the mound. Bumgarner posted a 3.21 ERA a year ago, including 2.52 after the All-Star break where he went 9-4. He stands at 3-0 vs. the D-Backs with a nifty 2.41 ERA against them. The Giants are 15-7 as an underdog when Bumgarner toes the rubber. The D-backs lost each of Hudson's last four starts a year ago. Play on San Francisco in this one.
Freddy Wills
Phillies vs. Pirates
Play: Under 6½
Oddly the line that opened at -158 in favor of Lee and the Phillies of course has started to come down and in my opinion that means a pitching duel. There is no reason to think the Pirates would beat Lee yet the odds are coming down. The Phillies offense is just pathetic with all the injuries they really are going to struggle to score runs and I see Lee dominating Pitt who was pretty bad OPS wise in their own ball park. This game goes under the total in a close one.