Jason Sharpe
Yankees at Tigers
Play: Tigers
The New York Yankees will go with the big lefty CC Sabathia here in this one. Sabathia is now 35 years old and has posted three straight ugly seasons with an ERA above 4.70 overall. He faces a lethal Tigers offense that hits lefties very hard as the Tigers are loaded with right-handed bats. Detroit will counter with a veteran arm of their own in this one with the 32-year-old Mike Pelfrey getting the start. The free agent-acquired Pelfrey looked great this spring with his new team as he posted a WHIP of just 1.08 and an ERA of 2.66. Lots of line value on him going into this year as his defensive middle infielders are much better with the Tigers than he had with the Twins, and that's huge for this ground-ball pitching machine.
Alan Harris
Pacquiao (-220) over Bradley Jr.
Manny Pacquiao will look for back-to-back wins over Timothy Bradley Jr. when the two meet at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas, NV on Saturday night for the vacant WBO International Welterweight Title. This will be the third fight between the two boxers, and in our eyes Manny should be going for three in a row because if you go back and watch the first fight between the two back in June of 2012, there is no way he lost the fight. Somehow, the judges sided with Bradley in a split decision in what was one of the worst decisions in boxing history. We see this one playing out more like the second fight between the two with Manny dominating from the opening bell. Pacquiao won that one by unanimous decision, and this one should end in the same fashion. Neither boxer can really hurt the other with a knockdown, so we expect this one to go the distance but we think that Manny's hand speed and footwork will be too much for Bradley once again. Like we mentioned earlier, we think Manny is 2-0 against Bradley, so we'll lay the price with him here to get another win over Timothy Bradley on Saturday night in Vegas.
DAVE COKIN
CHICAGO AT ARIZONA
PLAY: ARIZONA -110
Zack Greinke has a less than memorable debut with the Diamondbacks on Monday. He was not sharp at all against the Rockies. Greinke lasted only four innings and got shelled.
That sets up a play on Greinke tonight. First of all, he won’t be pitching with the flu as was the case on Monday. But more importantly, I’m not sure there’s anyone I prefer to Greinke when coming off a bad start.
Last season, Greinke was simply lights out the entire season. For most pitchers I chart off a bad start, I usually will use four, maybe even five runs allowed as the starting point. In Greinke’s case, I lowered that bar to three runs, which really isn’t all that bad. But using three runs allowed as the parameter, here’s what Greinke did in his next start. One earned run surrendered in 42.1 innings. That’s totally absurd and unbelievable. But it’s also real.
Kyle Hendricks is a solid enough guy but he will likely have to be brilliant to beat Greinke tonight. The Diamondbacks have a little positive momentum off the Friday night comeback win and now they get to throw their ace at the Cubs. I definitely like the situation for Arizona here, and thanks to the fact they’re playing the Cubs, the game is priced nice and cheap. Getting Greinke in a big time go with spot and spotting almost no juice is a take for me, and I’m on the Diamondbacks in this one.
Rob Vinciletti
Padres vs. Rockies
Play: Rockies -155
Colorado will look to rebound off a blowout home loss to the Padres last night. They fit a nice system that has won 11 of 12 times the last few years and plays on certain home favorites off a home favored loss by 5 or more runs and still scored 5+ runs vs an opponent off a road win and scored 10 or more runs. Colorado he Delarosa going and he is 9-1 at home vs SD and 6-2 in Home April starts. Pomeranz for SD has lost 4 of his last 5 road starts and 0-3 in road April starts. He may struggle in his first start here in Colorado.
Scott Spreitzer
Suns vs. Pelicans
Play: Suns -1½
The New Orleans Pelicans picked up a rare win last night, but they'll now play their fourth game in five nights against a Suns' team that grabbed a day of rest yesterday after thumping the Rockets in Houston on Thursday. Phoenix has covered five of their last seven and they're on a 9-5 ATS run over their last 14 games. The Suns have also been at their best against bad teams, cashing four straight against teams playing at or less than .400 basketball. New Orleans, with their depleted roster should be hard-pressed to bring four quarters of intensity and energy in the scheduling situation mentioned above. Look for Phoenix to grab the road win on Saturday night.
Jack Jones
Boston Celtics +6
The Boston Celtics have come a long way this season. They are now in position to get home-court advantage in the 1st round of the playoffs thanks to their 47-32 record, which has them tied with the Atlanta Hawks, tonight's opponent, for the No. 3 seed in the East.
The Celtics have put themselves in this position by playing tremendous basketball here down the stretch. They are 8-2 in their last 10 games overall following a 15-point win over the Bucks last night. Yes, this will now be the 2nd of a back-to-back, but perhaps no team is better equipped to handle this situation than the Celtics.
Indeed, the Celtics have one of the deepest benches in the NBA, and that's why I'm not concerned about this back-to-back situation. They'll obviously be motivated enough to overcome it giving their standing in the East and their golden opportunity to get the No. 3 seed. But I think oddsmakers have clearly over-adjusted for this back-to-back, and giving the Celtics 6 points is simply too much.
To prove my point, the Celtics are a sensational 40-16-1 ATS in their last 57 games when playing on 0 days' rest. Boston is 4-0 ATS in its last four vs. Eastern Conference opponents, too. The Hawks are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.
Marc Lawrence
Dodgers vs. Giants
Play:Dodgers -123
Edges - Dodgers: Clayton Kershaw 9-4 last 13 team starts n this park; and 12-5 last 17 team starts during April. Giants: Madison Bumgarner rocky 11.12 ERA and 2.12 WHIP this spring. With Los Angeles 14-6 in its last 20 games during the opening month of April, we recommend a 1* play on the Dodgers.
Mike Lundin
Chicago at Arizona
Play: Arizona -114
The Chicago Cubs must be somewhat demoralized as their hopes of winning the World Series took a big hit Thursday when they lost left fielder Kyle Schwarber for the rest of the season due to full tears to the ACL and LCL in his left knee. They had recorded three straight wins prior to a 3-2 loss at here at Arizona yesterday, and I don't like their chances tonight either coming up against Zack Greinke (0-1, 15.75).
The Arizona ace was lit up in his D'Backs debut but he's 4-2 with a 3.78 ERA in eight career starts against the Cubs. Jason Heyward is 2-for-11 with four strikeouts in previous meetings with the right-hander and Dexter Fowler 2-for-18 with nine strikeouts.
The Cubs will turn to Kyle Hendricks (2015: 8-7, 3.95 ERA) who'll make his first start of the season. He was much better home at Wrigley than on the road last season as he posted a 4.67 ERA through 17 road starts and Arizona has won seven of its last nine games against the Cubs at Chase Field.
Jim Feist
Phoenix at New Orleans
Play: New Orleans +1½
This is the third straight road game for Phoenix winding down a lost campaign. The Suns are No. 22 in the NBA in scoring, second to last in points allowed. The Suns are 8-20 ATS in their last 28 road games, plus 10-26 ATS in their last 36 games vs. a team with a losing straight up record. New Orleans has a winning record at home and on a 5-1 spread run. The Pelicans are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games playing on no days rest and the home team is 8-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings. In addition, the Suns are 2-5 ATS in the last 7 meetings, 0-4 ATS at New Orleans.
Dave Price
Tampa Bay Rays -121
Drew Smyly is one of the most underrated starters in baseball. He has gone 24-16 with a 3.29 ERA and 1.165 WHIP with 390 K's in 401 2/3 innings in his brief 5-year career. He'll be opposed by Baltimore prospect Mike Wright, who went 3-5 with a 6.04 ERA and 1.567 WHIP in 44 2/3 innings as a rookie last year. Wright will be making his first start of 2016 here, and he'll have his hands full up against Smyly. Smyly is 3-0 with a 2.27 ERA and 0.884 WHIP in 5 lifetime starts vs. Baltimore, and his teams are 5-0 in those contests. Enough said.
Martin Griffiths
Middlesbrough vs. Preston North End
Play: Middlesbrough -1-105
Middlesbrough are flying at the moment, they are on a three game winning streak, they sit in the top two in the Championship and are on course for automatic promotion to the Premier League, however, their position is precarious with Brighton just one point behind them, they simply cannot afford to drop any points today.
Preston are in tenth and have almost no hope of making the play off's, they basically have nothing to play for now, they lost at home in the last match against Fulham and over the last six matches have managed just two wins, their season has come off the rails over the last few weeks and there is no reason to think it will click back into place now.
What we basically have here is one team going for automatic promotion on a winning streak up against a team that has season collapse who are unable to put a consistent winning run together and who lost their most recent game.
The odds on a home win are prohibitive so the best option is to take Middlesbrough on the spreads, which is what I will be doing today.
Brad Diamond
Yankees +104
New York lefthander C. C. Sabathia gets the call after his rehabilitation stint, but remember he can no longer go nine innings. So, off a loss here is a vote for the Bronx Bombers bull pen. Yesterday our “early” forecast went down, but we note Alex and Carlos did not play. CC finished with a 5+ ERA, had to use a brace for his knee late in the 2015 season to improve his productivity. Still, we are from the show me state, etc., etc.! Until, the big hurler brings three straight solid performances, we’ll assume he is an aging hurler with issues. On the other side, former Minnesota right-handed craftsmen Pelfrey gets the call. The hurler put up some solid numbers in the spring, but would not trust the veteran against a rebounding Yankees unit that have won five of the last seven in the series. We lean to the Yankees. By the way, for those total players, balls and strikes umpire Emmel is 23-5 vs. NY but, the weather is around 24 degrees as we write.
Cajun Sports
Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals
Play: Kansas City Royals -150
The Twins and Royals play the second game of a three-game weekend set on Saturday night. The Twins were swept in their opening series against the Orioles opening the season 0-3 SU. For Minnesota to be competitive they will need solid starting pitching because there are short on run production at the plate. The Royals have done a nice job against left-handed starters winning nine of their last ten in this situation. This is not good news for the Twins as they send left-hander Tommy Milone to the bump. A check of our powerful MLB database reveals a system that is active for this contest. We want to play AGAINST MLB road teams in the current price range who are hitting fewer than 0.925 homeruns per game coming off four or more straight games scoring two or fewer runs. Playing against these teams has produced a record of 82-39 SU for a profit of +3015 Units. The Twins inability to score will be the difference on Saturday.
Big Al
NY Yankees vs. Detroit
Pick: Detroit
Veteran RH Mike Pelfrey makes his debut in a Detroit Tigers uniform coming off of a strong spring training campaign that saw him post a 2.66 ERA over five starts. While Pelfrey's best years are behind him, he - and the Tigers - believe he can still be a better-than-average starter in the back-end of the rotation and Pelfrey is out to prove it. After all, he's still just 32 years old and although he only had six wins last season he was able to improve his ERA over his prior two campaigns while posting a league-lowest HR rate of just 0.6. CC Sabathia won the fifth starter job in NY over Ivan Nova and he gets his first start of the season coming off of a very rough spring that saw him go 1-3 with a 5.51 ERA over five starts. That's an ominous sign when you consider that Sabathia has been a slow starter throughout his career. Sabathia's ERA has taken a major hit over the past three seasons, sitting right around five runs over his 69 starts during that time, and at age 35, if he regresses more this season, it could be very ugly indeed. The Tigers are 8-3 in their last 11 games following a win.
Larry Ness
Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels
Pick: Los Angeles Angels
Cole Hamels had suffered through THREE consecutive Aprils, going 2-7 with a 4.42 ERA in 13 opening month starts from 2013-15. However, he won his 2016 season debut when he defeated the Seattle Mariners AND “King Felix” 3-2 this past Monday. Hamels allowed two ERs over seven innings on four hits with eight Ks against the Mariners, improving to 8-0 in his last 10 regular-season starts (Texas is 10-0!). He is 8-1 in 13 regular-season starts for Texas (Rangers are 11-2) since being acquired from the Philadelphia Phillies shortly before last season's trading deadline.
Texas didn’t clinch the AL West last year until the last day of the season (Oct 4) with Hamels going the distance in a 9-2 victory over the Angels. Texas batted .156 while scoring 13 runs in its first four games (opening 2-2) but had 10 hits in a 7-3 victory against the Angels on Friday night. The Rangers will try to keep rolling against Garrett Richards, who will again draw an opponents ace. He gave up three runs in five innings Monday while fanning seven but reigning NL Cy Young Award winner Jake Arrieta led the Chicago Cubs to a 9-0 win.
However, Richards is 9-2 with a 3.20 ERA in 18 career appearances (14 starts) against Texas, going 8-2 with a 2.98 ERA in 14 career starts against the Rangers (although LA is a modest 8-6), marking his most wins and starts vs any opponent. He has a 2.11 ERA in his past seven matchups and note that while Texas was 22-15 in road night games against right-handed starters last season, the Rangers averaged only 3.0 RPG.
This marks Hamel just THIRD career starts vs the Angels but note that in 2015, the Angels were a healthy 16-8 vs lefties at home, including 14-7 in night games. I’ll take the home team.