Power Sports
Houston vs. Milwaukee
Pick: Over
Thus far, every Astros game has gone Over the total as the pitching (outside of Dallas Keuchel) has been nowhere near as good as it was last season. The last three games, all losses, have seen them give up a total of 30 runs, which is a really horrible number quite obviously. Expect lots more scoring in this one.
The Astros lineup doesn't have the DH in this series (NL park) and didn't score yday until a four-run ninth that was aburptly ended courtesy of the new "Utley Rule." But this is still a group that put 16 runs on the board in three games at Yankee Stadium and is more than capable of roughing up the suspect Milwaukee arms. Tonight, they face Wily Peralta, who was rocked in his first start (vs. SF on Opening Day), giving up five runs in just four innings. Including his final two starts of 2015, Peralta has a 10.66 ERA.
Doug Fister gets the baseball for the visitors here and he's coming off an awful Spring where he posted an 8.27 ERA in five starts. Astros starters have posted a heinous 13.50 ERA the L3 days and there's already some growing concern with the bullpen (which was due to regress anyway) as newly acquired closer Ken Giles has already given up a pair of homers (allowed only 2 HR's all of last season!).
Will Rogers
Oakland vs. Seattle
Pick: Over
After taking two of three in their series in Texas, the Mariners lost their home opener to Oakland last night. Seattle's bats have been smoking hot to start the season, and I expect to see a bit of a slugfest at Safeco tonight, as both teams turn to the back end of the rotation.
Here are my keys to the game:
1. Pitching - The Athletics will send 36 year old Rich Hill to the mound tonight, and he did not look great in his season debut. The left-hander gave up four runs on three hits in just 2.2 innings in a home loss to Chicago. The Mariners will hand the ball to Nathan Karns, who makes his first start of the season. Karns was 6-3 with a 4.08 ERA in 19 starts under the lights in 2015.
2. Robinson Cano - The Seattle slugger is off to a hot start, leading the American League with four home runs in just four games played. He's 3-for-5 with a home run and three RBIs lifetime versus Hill.
3. X-Factor - The Over is 19-6-1 in the Mariners last 26 home games versus a left-handed starter.
Kyle Hunter
Rays -120
The Baltimore Orioles are 4-0 so far this year, but I still don't think they are a good team. I expect Baltimore to be mediocre or slightly worse. Their starting pitching is a major problem. Mike Wright had an awful season last year, and he hasn't proven he can get big league hitters out. Drew Smyly is an underrated starter who has completely dominated this Baltimore lineup the last few times he has seen them. In fact, Smyly has been at his best in Baltimore, where he has allowed 2 runs in 22 innings pitched! The Rays are 7-0 in Smyly's last 7 starts following a loss where they scored 2 runs or less. The Rays are 4-0 in Smyly's last 4 starts vs. Baltimore. The Orioles are 0-4 in Wright's last 4 vs. the AL East. They are 0-4 in his last 4 starts after the Orioles opponent allows 5 runs or more in the previous game. A 19-0 angle.
Bruce Marshall
Padres +120
Maybe all the Padres needed to do was get away from home. After being outscored 25-0 by the Dodgers while enduring an embarrassing home sweep to open the season, San Diego bounced back with 13 runs on Friday at Denver, and Saturday starter Drew Pomeranz knows all about pitching at Coors Field after once having played with the Rocks. Last year, the Padres also roughed up Colorado starter Jorge De La Rosa, who was 0-3 with a 7.94 ERA against San Diego last season.
Hawks -5.5
This is a key game for Atlanta side that would very much like to hold onto the third seed in the East. The Hawks are in a tight race with Boston for the 3-4 spots, and would love to avoid Miami (currently sitting in 5th; Heat are 3-0 vs. Hawks). Sixth-place Charlotte would be a much better matchup for Atlanta, considering the Hawks are 3-1 vs. the Hornets this season. Boston hosted Milwaukee last night, while Atlanta had Friday off, although the Celtics are a remarkable 39-16 vs. the points the last 3 seasons in 2nd night of back-to-back sets. Certainly neither of these teams qualifies as a pointspread go-with, as the Celtics are 1-5 vs. the number in their last 6 prior to facing the Bucks, and the Hawks had dropped 4 straight spread decisions before hosting Toronto Thursday. Hawk PF Paul Millsap has scored 20 ppg and grabbed 8.3 rpg in the series with the Celtics this season, and Atlanta has scored 108 ppg and shot 50%. Hawks holding last 5 foes thru April 6 to less than 40%.
Harry Bondi
TAMPA BAY -135 over Baltimore
Tonight's Tampa starter Drew Smyly owns the Orioles. He is 4-0 with a 1.82 ERA in eight games versus Baltimore and he faces off tonight against one of the worst pitchers in baseball the Birds Mike Wright. The second year right-hander lost his final 5 starts lasy season and posted a 10.88 ERA. Orioles' have been hot but are cooled of by Smyly at Camden.
Bob Balfe
Tigers -110
What is it about CC Sabathia that makes him worthy of being at this price? This is a guy that is aging and has faded from the ranks of great pitching, going against a team that will compete for a title run and who has started the season red hot. Sabathia is washed up in my book until he proves he can mentally stay in this league.
SPORTS WAGERS
MILWAUKEE/Houston Over 8½
The Astros were pounded in New York by the over-the hill Yanks to the tune of 27 runs allowed in three games. They went into Milwaukee last night and promptly allowed another six runs. That all occurred with their 2, 3 and 4 starters and now their fifth starter, Doug Fister is scheduled to start. Last season, the Nationals placed Fister on the DL in mid-May with forearm tightness. He returned to the rotation in mid-June, but was ineffective and eventually banished to the bullpen for the rest of the season in early August. Fister signed a one-year, free-agent deal with the Astros during the offseason and was expected to pitch in the middle of their rotation in 2016 but even the Astros are nervous about that, as they pushed him to the back of the rotation.
There's very little here to indicate that Fister is poised to rebound. His strikeout rate loss coincides with diminished velocity and less swing and misses. Fister’s 2015 control took a big step back and is about where we'd expect given his ball%. Three consecutive seasons of diminished skills, xERA and velocity combined with the 2015 DL stint for forearm soreness cast doubt on the 32-year-old's future. In addition to lost velocity, Fister's swing and miss decline is due to his decreased use of the curve ball, his best strikeout pitch (17% swing and miss). He inexplicably decreased its usage from more than 20% in 2012-2013 to less than 9% in 2014-2015. That Fister's velocity and swing and miss rate didn't rebound after his stint on the DL means we shouldn't assume he is fully recovered. Swapping out his highly effective curve ball for a less-effective slider leads one to wonder if throwing the curve ball causes more acute discomfort in his forearm. Without the curve ball, Fister lacks the true strikeout pitch needed to return to acceptable skill levels and when you combine that with the possibility of forearm injury exacerbation, his 2016 outlook appears ominous.
Wily Peralta has a 95 mph fastball, a 51% or better groundball rate in each of his four seasons and a plus slider, but a career 4.02 ERA and 1.39 WHIP in 520 innings is concerning. Lefties have increasingly become a problem (OPS has jumped yearly, including a .889 figure in '15) exacerbated by the lack of a reliable changeup (career 6% usage) and continually increasing home run rates. Even if you discount the entire 2015 season for injury and cycle the odometer back to pre-2015, what are you really left with? At this point, only news of an improved changeup or some other added pitch to tame lefties would regenerate his sleeper status. Peralta gave back all of his 2014 gains and then some, as an oblique injury ate up two months in-season and then flared up again in late September and ended his season early. The case is there for an injury write-off on at least the second half of his season, but his pre-injury work was still rather uninspiring (3.90 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 15% strikeout rate). In his first start of the year, also at Miller Park, Peralta lasted four innings and surrendered five runs against the Giants. The Brewers lost that game 12-3 with Peralta’s mound opponent being Madison Bumgarner. Today it’s Doug Fister. You do the math.
Boston +115 over TORONTO
The Jays blew a five run lead yesterday in their home opener and after winning their first two games, they have now lost three in a row. Toronto’s shaky bullpen has played a major part in all three losses and now it’s only a matter of time before the Jays starters get lit up. We said it yesterday and we’ll say it again today that the Blue Jays are extremely overhyped and overvalued. As soon as Joe Kelly was yanked yesterday, the Blue Jays failed to score another run while their ace, Marcus Stroman could not hold down a five-run lead. Suddenly, wins are becoming a little more difficult for the Jays. This afternoon, it’ll be R.A. Dickey’s turn. Dickey had a fine debut and he’s coming off another solid season but red flags abound. Dickey saw a sharp strikeout rate drop, and a downward trend in swinging strikes. A decline in first-pitch strike rate suggests his first half control drop was more representative than his second half. Dickey also posted his worst xERA, command, and overall skills since 2011 breakout. R.A. Dickey can probably keep the ball dancing a while longer, but he's back of the rotation material now.
Let's face it, Rick Porcello's debut in Boston was a disaster. He posted a 6.08 ERA in the first half, and while Porcello recovered well after an August DL trip, he was largely unplayable from a betting standpoint. We’re not willing to throw in the towel yet on Porcello because there's still a pulse here. Porcello posted a career-high K-rate in 2015, but it's unfair to expect a repeat without any notable swing and miss gains. He continued to flash pinpoint control, and while his previously-elite groundball rate sunk to a career low, it did recover in the second half. Porcello’s xERA was more than a full run lower than his surface ERA thanks to a brutal hit%/strand% combination. Gopheritis continued to be an issue for Porcello in 2015 as well. Porcello's 2015 campaign wasn't nearly as bad as the surface stats show, as nearly all of his skill indicators point to improvement in 2016. His post-DL skill spike is certainly an encouraging sign, and while we're skeptical Porcello can hold 2015's strikeout gains, an excellent control/groundball% baseline could push his ERA below 4.00. Porcello's a decent bet to return some profit this year when he’s being offered a price and while he may not do well here, we absolutely like his chances to do better than Dickey. Red Sox once again offer up all the value here and so our attack on the Blue Jays will continue.
Philadelphia (5 innings) +144
Vincent Velasquez beat out Adam Morgan for the last spot in Philadelphia's rotation. Velasquez was one of the prizes the Phillies obtained when they traded Ken Giles to Houston. As a rookie with the Astros in 2015, Velasquez compiled a 4.04 xERA with a 3.4 BB/9 and a 9.4 K’s/9. Over his minor league career he had 10.8 K’s/9 and was ranked as Houston's number three prospect for 2015. Houston's top prospect was Carlos Correa. Velasquez went 1-1 with a 4.37 ERA in 56 innings for the Astros last year. His skills held firm as a starter and reliever. Velasquez’s control will very likely drive his success and his strong first-pitch strike rate is a great sub indicator sign. Velasquez’s arsenal of a big fastball, great changeup and strikeout curve points to a bright future and it could come quickly. As a pooch in this price range against Bartolo Colon, we’re absolutely willing to gamble but we’ll only do so in the first five innings.
Bartolo Colon keeps chugging along, as the 43-year-old reached 30 starts and 190 innings for the third consecutive year in 2015. His ERA has finished just a shade above 4.00 in each of the last two butColon is walking a pretty thin line. His impeccable control is his calling card, and it's supported by a strong and steady first pitch strike rate. His second half K-rate fell back to his 2012-13 level. Given his lack of swing-and-miss stuff, and the fact that his fastball velocity has fallen each of the past four seasons, projecting much of a rebound is risky.
Colon somewhat made up for the strikeout rate drop by lowering his fly-ball rate during the second half of 2015. It's been extremely stable over the past several years, though, so assuming his home run per fly ball rate comes in around league average, his home run rate likely will again as well. Colon has held up remarkably well during the late stages of his career, as the 43-year-old has been an innings eater the past few seasons while still flashing some decent skills. His refusal to issue free passes will keep the WHIP respectable, but he lacks upside, and his age, weight, declining velocity, and second half strikeouts drop reveal more rise. Colon shrugs off age and girth, but nobody is impervious to natural forces forever, right? Right?? RIGHT!!???? Of course we’re fading him at prices like this.
San Diego (5 innings) +111
Drew Pomeranz entered spring camp in a battle for a spot somewhere on the San Diego staff and when it was all said and done, Pomeranz earned a role as a starter. A former fifth overall pick, Pomeranz has the upside to stick either as a starter or reliever. In fact, he posted great skills as a starter in April 2015 before he was sent to the bullpen due to a shoulder concern. Few relievers were better than Pomeranz over the last two months of 2015 (28/2 K/BB in 21 IP). He also featured a filthy 19% swing and miss rate over 12 appearances in August. In 17 innings this past spring, Pomeranz struck out 25 batters and posted an ERA of just 2.04. He’s definitely on our radar as one of the most undervalued pitchers to start the year and while it’s premature to suggest he’ll thrive, the skills are there that could see him do precisely that. Pomeranz may be on a strict pitch count early in the year so we’ll attack this one in the first five innings.
Jorge De La Rosa tricked us into thinking he had something figured out at Coors. One could feel pretty foolish for even believing in such a notion. DLR had a 2.93 ERA at home in 2014 before Coors smacked him back last year with a 5.40 ERA. DLR’s lack of control and first-pitch strike rate (56%) are both awful. His hr/f is pretty scary too. If De La Rosa’s age (35) doesn’t scare you off this favorite, his first start of the year in which he was tagged for eight hits and five runs in five innings against Arizona should. De La Rosa is not the conqueror of Coors Field. Thanks for your time.
Jimmy Boyd
Dodgers/Giants Under 6
This play doesn't need a whole lot of explanation. We have two of the games best starters squaring off in this one. Clayton Kershaw takes the mound for the Dodgers and will go up against Madison Bumgarner of the Giants. I'll take my chances here with this one finishing with 6 or less runs.
This will be the 8th time that these two starters have taken the mound in the same game. Bumgarner has posted a 2.58 ERA in the previous 7 meetings, while Kershaw has an even better 2.12 ERA. Neither team will be coming into this one with a whole lot of confidence offensively, as these totaled just 5 runs combined in yesterday's game, which nearly saw the Giants get no hit.
UNDER is 21-8 in the Dodgers last 29 road games after scoring 2 runs or less and 34-16 in the Giants last 50 with Bumgarner on the mound as a underdog of +100 to +150.
Brandon Lee
Tigers -105
I'm not buying that C.C. Sabathia is going to be a whole lot better in 2016. Sabathia is on the wrong end of his prime and clearly had some problems off the diamond that were limiting his abilities. The fact that he's the No. 5 starter says a lot about what the Yankees are expecting from him this season. He was far from impressive in spring training, posting a 5.51 ERA in 5 starts. I'm not saying he won't prove the doubters wrong and pitch well this year, I just feel there's to much unknown not to take Detroit at this price at home.
Wunderdog
St. Louis @ Atlanta
Pick: Under 7
Atlanta plays in a big park, great for pitchers, and a pair of weak offenses square off for this one. St. Louis has hard-throwing Carlos Martinez going, shutting out the Braves the last two years in 10+ innings. St. Louis is 12-4-5 UNDER the total when Martinez starts. The Braves are on a 13-4 run UNDER at home. Atlanta starter Julio Teheran has excellent stuff and throws great at home, 8-2 last year in this park with opponents hitting .211 off him. The last three years he's 22-10 at home with a 2.66 ERA and during that time he has a 1.89 ERA against the Cardinals holding them to a .176 average. The UNDER is 31-15-2 when the Cardinals face a starter with a WHIP greater than 1.30 and when these teams clash, the UNDER is 8-3 in this park. Play this one to finish UNDER the total.
SPORTS WAGERS
Carolina +145 over FLORIDA
OT included. While there is always some danger in playing these road teams in their season finale, Carolina has shown us enough grit all year to suggest they have one more strong effort in them. We have backed this live pooch all year because of their work effort and determination under Bill Peters. We’ll go back to this Hurricanes’ well one last time because this ticket has a great chance of cashing while the price is incredibly appealing.
Have you ever watched the show “Survivor”? The shows’ philosophy is outwit, outplay and outlast to be the lone survivor after 39 days in extreme conditions. One by one, survivors are eliminated by being voted out by their peers until there are three survivors left at which point the “jury” votes to select which survivor is most deserving of the top prize. On that final day, when the remaining three have nothing left to do, it is a celebration of sorts. They come together, they eat a big meal, they hug each other while mentally preparing to get in front of the jury to state their case. A big exhale after 39 days of stiff competiion occurs. Well, for the Florida Panthers, this season was very much like Survivor. The Panthers worked hard for 80 games. They set out with a goal and they accomplished it by making the playoffs and finishing in first place. The Panthers first clinched a playoff spot in game 79 with a win over Toronto and subsequently clinched first place with a win over Montreal in game 80. Now the exhale is taking place. The Panthers only thing left to do is wait to see which team they will play in the playoffs. They are locked into their playoff seeding and absolutely have no say as to which team they will face in round one. After 80 games of “Survivor”, we can’t imagine for a second that the Panthers care even a little about this game. This franchise halted a long playoff drought, they are locked in and they can take a breather here before hosting the first game of round one. That the Panthers are priced like this game means their playoff lives is absolutely ludicrous.
MONTREAL -½ +155 over Tampa Bay
Regulation only. The Lightning will prepare for the first round on home ice next week against Detroit or Boston so this finale means squat to them. The Lightning will also finish with the third or fourth most wins in the East but we have less faith in this group than any top-seed in the league. All season long, the Bolts played sloppy by continuously coughing up the puck in their own end and allowing the opposition a hoard of scoring chances almost every game. Half the time, they played like they couldn’t care less. We’re suggesting there will be great profits fading this bunch in the playoffs but there is one more opportunity here before that happens. If Tampa played so sloppy when it mattered, one can only imagine how sloppy they’ll be here when it matters not.
The Bell Center in Montreal tonight will be jam packed. This is their final game of a hugely disappointing season but for one last time this season, Montreal figures to thank their fans for their huge loyalty and support. It all comes down to which team will have the motivation to show up and perform well and from our viewpoint, it’s a no-brainer in the Habs’ favor.
MINNESOTA -1½ +183 over Calgary
OT included. The Wild have punched their ticket to the postseason and are firmly seeded in the second Wild Card spot in the West. While many other teams that are unable to improve their post season position will be resting starters to avoid injury in today's meaningless games, the Wild will not utilize that luxury, as they've lost four straight and no team wants to go into the playoffs on such a bad note. Minnesota’s battle with the Avs for the final playoff spot was truly pathetic, as both teams stumbled down the stretch. Minny will play either Dallas or St. Louis in the first round (not that it matters) but they'll want to head into that series on a winning note, otherwise they'll have to deal with the media and an awful lot of doubt heading into playoffs.
The Flames have made a point to finish strong this season despite their spot near the bottom of the Western Conference. Calgary is 2-0-1 in its last three games and they've exploded for 16 goals in those contests. They put up seven against the Canucks last game and a crooked number like that really stands out in the box scores. While the Flames have been playing better their wins came against the rival Oilers who themselves are in the hunt for the number one pick in the draft, the Kings with Jonas Enroth in net and the hated Canucks in their last home game of the season. Flames goalie Joni Ortio started all three games and played decent enough but his season is over. Much like they did with Jonas Hiller, the Flames will give Niklas Backstrom the pity start in what's surely the final NHL game of his career and it’ll come versus his former team. We're not sure what could possibly motivate the Flames here today. The last time Backstrom started a game for the Flames was against the Wild when he was torched for six goals on 29 shots. In his last appearance, Backstrom came on in relief of Hiller against the Ducks and gave up five goals on 22 shots. Backstrom and Hiller are the two worst goalies in the league and the Flames are doing the Wild a huge favour today by starting this stiff. We expect Minny to be fired up to take one more shot at their former teammate and get back on track tonight in their final home game of the regular season. This wager is all about fading Backstrom.
Chase Diamond
Philadelphia at New York
Play; Philadelphia +160
This game has the 0-4 Phillies at the 2-1 Mets. The Phillies are bad no question but I think they are getting a ton of plus money today as I think the Phillies are the best value for the dollar. They are hungry for their firs win and imo have the better starter today in 24 year old Vince Velasquez he is a solid young starter and he faces off with the oldest pitcher in Baseball Bartolo Colon who is getting a spot start today. This line has held tight at -170 even with 79% of the money coming in on the Mets. Big trap here as Vegas see's what I see. The Phillies aside from the start of Charlie Morton have been getting strong starting pitching and I think today the Phillies hit around Colon on there way to their first win of the year.
Ray Monohan
Edmonton / Vancouver Over 5
The Oilers and Canucks get set for battle on Saturday night and the Over has solid value given the situation.
Both teams are bottom in the NHL and have called up multiple young guys from the AHL to finish the season off. These guys still have plenty of motivation as they want to be in the NHL and make an impact for heading into next season. Expect to see a lot of energy from both teams here.
Both goalies also have trouble conceding. The Oilers give up 3.15 GAA on the road while the Canucks surrender 2.91 GAA per game.
Some trends to consider. Over is 5-0-1 in Canucks last 6 vs. a team with a winning % below .400. Over is 20-5-1 in Oilers last 26 when their opponent allows 5 goals or more in their previous game.
Expect a lot of pace and energy here, as both teams get plenty of chances on goal in this one.
Dwayne Bryant
Texas Rangers -105 1st Half
Cole Hamels has been a stud for the Rangers. He is matched up with Angels ace Garrett Richards tonight. But unlike many "Ace versus Ace" matchups, I see a pretty nice edge with Hamels over Richards. Active Angels hitters own a combined career .147 average against Hamels, while Texas' active hitters have produced a combined lifetime .258 average against Richards. This game feels to me like one of those games where the stud starter (Hamels) leaves the game with a lead, only to have the bullpen gag it away (especially since Texas won the series opener last night). But TEXAS with HAMELS for the FIRST 5 INNINGS looks like a solid play.