Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, December 11,2010

Tom Freese

Utah Jazz at Dallas Mavericks
Prediction: Dallas Mavericks

Utah is 17-7 straight up this year. The Jazz are 1-3-1 ATS their last 5 Saturday games. Utah is 4-10 ATS their last 14 meetings with the Mavericks. The Jazz are 17-38 ATS after allowing 100 or more points in their last game. Dallas is 18-4 straight up this year. The Mavericks are are 6-0-1 ATS their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning record. Dallas is 6-1-1 ATS after scoring 100 or more points in their last game. The Mavs are 7-2 ATS off a straight up win and they are 5-0 ATS when playing with one day of rest.

Charlie Scott

UNLV vs. Louisville
Play: Under 144

Total of 144 seems awful high with 2 teams whose Coaching staffs put a great priority on playing good defense and both teams have the athletes to play good defense. The Noon Eastern start is not only an early start for Louisville players, but have to think that UNLV players haven't adjusted to East Coast time and their body clock is on Pacific Coast time which would be 9 AM. Nobody makes baskets that early in the morning !

Rob Vinciletti

Florida Atlantic vs. Hofstra
Play: Hofstra -2

Hofstra has better numbers and has won the last 4 in the series with Florida Atlantic. Hofstra is 11-2 after scoring 80 or more points and was an impressive winner last year in Florida. Florida Atlantic has some dismal numbers in this one. They are 7-33 overall vs winning teams and 4-12 after scoring 60 or less in their last game. When installed as a dog they have lost 35 of 42 times. They have not played in a week since there win over South Florida. Look for Hofstra to improve on their 4 game win streak with a win here today.

Marc Lawrence

Washington @ Texas A&M
PICK: Texas A&M

The Aggies will be looking to revenge a 73-64 loss last season to these Huskies in Seattle. The sled dogs first true roadie of the season couldn’t have come at a much tougher venue as A&M owns a strong 81-10 SU home court since 2005, including 9-2 ATS as a dog or favorite of three or less points. Washington’s 1-7 SU and ATS mark in lined road openers says the Aggies get their revenge. We do, too. We recommend a 1-unit play on Texas A&M.

Jim Feist

Cavaliers vs. Rockets
Take: Over 205

Two of the worst defensive teams in the NBA square off Saturday: The small Cavs allow .477% shooting by opponents (4th worst in the NBA) while the uptempo Rockets allow .466% shooting, 20th in the league. Both teams allow over 100 points per game, with the Rockets giving up 105.7 ppg, sixth most in the league. Cleveland has spent much of the last two weeks on the road and they have packed it in defensively, on a 5-1 run over the total. Houston won't have any legs for defense playing the second of a back to back spot here, giving up 111 and 119 points in their last back to back games to Memphis and Chicago (both overs). Play the Cavaliers/Rockets over the total.

EZWINNERS

Texas A&M Aggies

The Washington Huskies are playing their first true road game of the season when they travel to College Station to battle the Texas A&M Aggies. This is a very tough venue to play your first road game as the Aggies are 81-10 straight up at home since 2005 and they are 9-2 against the spread as a home underdog or favorite of three points or less. Washington is just 1-7 straight up and against the spread in their first road game of the season the last eight years and the Aggies will be seeking revenge for last season's 73-64 loss at Washington. Play on A&M.

Ray Monohan

Indiana vs. Kentucky
Play: Kentucky -13½

Indiana (7-1) and No. 16 Kentucky (6-2), two neighboring basketball giants, will get together for the 54th time. Kentucky leads the series 30-23. Indiana is getting better, but Kentucky has played very tough opponents this year and will not be threatened by anything Indiana can do. The two teams are statistically similar. Kentucky averages 77.5 points and shoots 45.6 percent from the field. Indiana also averages 77.5 points and shoots 50.5 percent. Indiana is most definitely rebuilding, and Kentucky has advanced far beyond that point. KENTUCKY are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 Saturday games. Kentucky has three players who average double figures and another who is very close: Terrence Jones (20 points, 10.5 rebounds), Brandon Knight (17.4 points), reserve Doron Lamb (12.4 points) and Darius Miller (9.9 points, 5.3 rebounds). The Wildcats should pull away from the Hoosiers in the second half with Terrence Jones leading the way. Take Kentucky in this game.

James Patrick Sports

VCU vs. Richmond

Payback could be in the cards for Richmond vs. crosstown rival VCU, which won by 8 at the Siegel Center last season. But without C Larry Sanders (now with the NBA Bucks) patrolling the paint any longer, not sure Rams can close off the middle and intimidate Spiders. Big Game James Patrick's Saturday NCAA College Basketball selection is Richmond Spiders.

Steve Merril

Missouri State vs. Oklahoma State
Play: Missouri State +3

Free Play Missouri St was a much improved team last season as the Bears went 24-12 after winning just 11 games in 2009. They return their top 7 scorers this season so Missouri St should match last year’s win total and they should actually have a better win/loss record this year. Missouri St went on to win the CollegeInsider Tournament last year so this is a team that should challenge for a NCAA Tournament spot this season. The Bears come into tonight’s game at 6-2 SU and 6-1 ATS. One of their two losses came at Tennessee; Missouri St fell just short in that game 60-56. That close loss proves that Missouri St can go out on the road and compete against the bigger name teams; they won’t be intimidated in the least bit tonight at Oklahoma St. The Cowboys have a good looking 8-1 record, but they’ve played an extremely weak slate of teams. The only possible tournament team they faced, Virginia Tech, resulted in Oklahoma St’s only loss of the season. This team lost a lot of offensive firepower from last year’s team; James Anderson and 40% of their overall scoring. So as the competition gets tougher, Oklahoma St’s troubles will get greater and they’ll be less likely to win many games by big margins. Missouri St should prove to be the better team at season’s end so getting points here looks like a solid take.

LARRY NESS

Gonzaga @ Notre Dame
PICK: Notre Dame -7.5

Illinois saw all five starters reach double figures last Saturday in a 73-61 win on the road at Gonzaga (Illini made 12-of-23 three pointers). That dropped Gonzaga to 4-3 on the season and the Bulldogs then traveled to Pullman on Wednesday, losing to the very improved Cougars, 81-59. Gonzaga's run of 12 consecutive NCAA tourney appearances could (looks like it will) end this season. A trip to South Bend is unlikely to help the team's tournament resume. Do-everything guard Gray (18.4-4.4-5.4) and the 7-0 Sacre (11.4-7.5) are the team's lone double digit scorers and at Pullman (in the team's first road game of the year) were nearly helpless. Gray made 2-of-10 shots (seven points) while Sacre made 1-of-5 attempts (six points). I just don't see them matching up with a very balanced Notre Dame team. The Irish opened 8-0 but lost 72-58 at Kentucky on Wednesday. The Zags were hoping Notre Dame had won, as the last thing they need is Notre Dame looking to "take things out" on them. However, that's EXACTLY the case now! Harangody (21.8-9.1) is gone but Notre Dame features three, 6-8 players up front and all are contributing. Abromaitis (14.3-7.0) is the team's leading scorer, joined by Nash (12.0-6.4) and Scott (10.9-7.8). Hansbrough (16.3) is in his second season with the Irish (Miss St transfer) and is joined in the starting lineup by 6-8 guard Martin (9.1-4.8) with Atkins 7.0-2.8) playing in reserve. Notre Dame has averaged 79.1 PPG in its 8-1 start (allowed just 63.1) and just has too much for Gonzaga in this one. Lay the points.

Sports Insights

Navy vs. Army

Navy comes into the 2010 edition of the Army/Navy game on a three-game winning streak, including a 35-19 win over Arkansas State in their last game. As expected, the Midshipmen did the majority of their damage on the ground, to the tune of 301 rushing yards.

Army is looking to rebound from a 27-3 loss to Notre Dame three weeks ago. The Black Knights struggled to move the ball all game, gaining a grand total of 174 yards.

Navy opened as a 7-point favorite at Pinnacle and is currently receiving 70% of spread wagers. This lopsided betting has pushed the line to -8 at many sportsbooks across the sports marketplace.

Even though the line has moved with the betting percentages, multiple Smart Money plays have been triggered throughout the week, including one at ABC (+8.42 units), our #2-ranked sportsbook for NCAA Football Smart Money Plays.

Army +8

Matt Rivers

Texas A&M +2

Washington definitely is the more talented team when compared to the Aggies and probably has the better shot to go farther when all is said and done. I really like the offensive firepower that Thomas, Overton, Bryan-Amaning and Holiday bring to the table but and a bit but here, I just do not trust the Huskies traveling like this as Lorenzo Romar's team never seems to be able to play nearly as well away from the state of Washington.

UDub is 6-2 thus far on the season and has been scoring like crazy. This team goes over the century mark routinely and has smacked everybody except for a pair of games in Maui when they did little in losses against Kentucky and Michigan State. Besides the win against Virginia on the big island the Huskies have been in their comfort zone throughout and now venture back out on the road down south to Aggieland against a pretty good A&M squad.

Mark Turgeon probably does not have his best team but Khris Middleton has been very good and at 8-1 along with being at home against a Washington squad that is sketchy at times on the road I can't help but back the Aggies in this pretty much home dog spot.

This game may not turn out to be the instant classic that last season's was but the Aggies in front of their fans are going to win this game more than they won't and that statement means everything to me at this number.

DUNKEL INDEX

Memphis at LA Clippers
The Grizzlies look to build on their 6-0-1 ATS record in their last 7 games as an underdog. Memphis is the pick (+1) according to Dunkel, which has the Grizzlies favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Memphis (+1)

Game 501-502: Memphis at LA Clippers (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 114.802; LA Clippers 113.523
Dunkel Line & Total: Memphis by 1 1/2; 189
Vegas Line & Total: LA Clippers by 1; 196 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (+1); Under

Game 503-504: Indiana at Atlanta (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 118.705; Atlanta 124.399
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 5 1/2; 199
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 3 1/2; 193
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-3 1/2); Over

Game 505-506: Boston at Charlotte (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 126.181; Charlotte 116.536
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 9 1/2; 191
Vegas Line & Total: Boston by 7; 188
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-7); Over

Game 507-508: Toronto at Detroit (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 114.359; Detroit 114.035
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 194
Vegas Line & Total: Detroit by 2; 200
Dunkel Pick: Toronto (+2); Under

Game 509-510: Minnesota at Chicago (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 111.548; Chicago 122.622
Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 11; 211
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 9; 205
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-9); Over

Game 511-512: Utah at Dallas (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 123.979; Dallas 127.075
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 3; 190
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas by 5 1/2; 193 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Utah (+5 1/2); Under

Game 513-514: Cleveland at Houston (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 107.062; Houston 122.268
Dunkel Line & Total: Houston by 15; 200
Vegas Line & Total: Houston by 8 1/2; 204 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-8 1/2); Under

Game 515-516: Miami at Sacramento (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 123.147; Sacramento 115.246
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 8; 214
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

NHL

NY Rangers at Columbus
The Rangers look to build on their 9-3 record in their last 12 games as a road underdog. New York is the pick (+100) according to Dunkel, which has the Rangers favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (+100)

Game 1-2: Colorado at Washington (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 10.827; Washington 11.497
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 3-4: Detroit at New Jersey (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 10.715; New Jersey 11.390
Dunkel Line & Total: New Jersey by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 5-6: Atlanta at NY Islanders (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 11.841; NY Islanders 10.193
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 1 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta (-145); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-145); Under

Game 7-8: Montreal at Toronto (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 10.794; Toronto 11.493
Dunkel Line & Total: Toronto by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 9-10: NY Rangers at Columbus (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Rangers 11.127; Columbus 10.588
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Rangers by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Columbus (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Rangers (+100); Under

Game 11-12: Philadelphia at Boston (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 11.406; Boston 11.986
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-135); 5
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-135); Over

Game 13-14: Pittsburgh at Buffalo (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 12.109; Buffalo 13.198
Dunkel Line & Total: Buffalo by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-120); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+100); Over

Game 15-16: Carolina at St. Louis (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 10.916; St. Louis 11.760
Dunkel Line & Total: St. Louis by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 17-18: Florida at Nashville (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida 11.895; Nashville 12.954
Dunkel Line & Total: Nashville by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Nashville (-155); 5
Dunkel Pick: Nashville (-155); Over

Game 19-20: Dallas at Phoenix (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 11.388; Phoenix 10.840
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 21-22: Tampa Bay at Vancouver (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 11.566; Vancouver 11.073
Dunkel Line & Total: Tampa Bay by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-190); 6
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+170); Under

Game 23-24: Minnesota at Los Angeles (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 10.771; Los Angeles 12.378
Dunkel Line & Total: Los Angeles by 1 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles (-185); 5
Dunkel Pick: Los Angeles (-185); Over

Game 25-26: Chicago at San Jose (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 10.937; San Jose 12.534
Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose by 1 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-150); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Jose (-150); Under

SPORTS WAGERS

Alabama +6 over PROVIDENCE

2:00 PM EST. There’s a price to pay for playing your first portion of the schedule against a bunch a marshmallows and that’s precisely the case with the Friars. Here’s a team that has a 9-2 record but so what. The Friars first four games were against Dartmouth, Yale, Morgan and Prairie View. They opened 4-0 and then played LaSalle and lost by nine. Its next five games were all wins and they came against Wyoming, Central Connecticut, Northeastern, Rhode Island and Brown followed by another loss to Boston College. Providence has some nice looking stats on paper, mostly an offense that is putting up a ton of points. Thing is, those numbers are grossly skewed because of a lack of strong competition. Fact is, the Friars have one senior, Marshon Brooks, that’s producing and the rest of the team is made up mostly of freshmen and sophomores. The Crimson Tide won’t make much noise in the SEC and they come in with just a 4-4 record, however, they’ve played Seton Hall, Iowa and Purdue and while they lost them all they’re the much more battle-tested squad. The Friars have not come close to facing a defense like the one they’ll face here and the bottom line is that the Friars are way overvalued because of a 9-2 record and an offense that ranks 23rd in the nation. Lots of misleading stats for the Friars and the Tide can not only keep this one well within this margin, they can win this one on the square. Play: #531 Alabama +6 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).

Wofford +6½ over SOUTH CAROLINA

7:00 PM EST. When you wager on a big conference school playing a small conference school you’re almost always going to pay a premium to do so. The Gamecocks play in the SEC and they come in with a 6-1 record thus far. That looks pretty sweet when you have to lay just 6½ points against a Wofford team that plays in the Southern Conference and is just 4-5 on the season. Thing is, the Terriers are going to run away with the Southern and they’re very likely going to be a tournament team come March. Its five losses thus far have come against Minnesota, Clemson, Georgetown, Air Force and Xavier. They took the Musketeers to triple OT before losing by four. They also lost to Air Force in OT and when you break it down the Terriers have played one of the toughest schedules in the nation thus far. They already have a win against a tough George Mason squad and they certainly have a chance to beat South Carolina. The Gamecocks only loss came against Michigan St and nobody can hold that against them. However, its six wins have come against a bunch of nobodies with the exception of a four-point win over Clemson. Western Kentucky pushed them to double OT and even Delaware gave them a bit of a scare. The Terriers won the Southern Conference's South Division in 2010 and finished the season with a 26-9 record, a school record for wins, but saw its 13-game victory streak end with a 53-49 loss to Wisconsin in the NCAA Tournament. They’re as good as they were a year ago and maybe even better. We’re calling them to win outright here but we’ll gladly accept the points being offered. Play: #603 Wofford (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).