SPORTS WAGERS
BUFFALO +1.08 over Pittsburgh
The Sabres have finally awakened and suddenly they look like a whole different team than the one we saw in the first couple of months of the season. Buffalo is playing with heart, grit and determination and that’s always been the trait of Lindy Ruffs’ team. The Sabres have picked up points in four straight games, winning three and losing the other one in OT at Boston. The Penguins are on fire with 11 wins in a row but a close look reveals its last seven games have come against struggling teams that cannot score. Here’s the Pens last seven opponents: Toronto, New Jersey, Columbus, Atlanta, the Rangers, Calgary and Ottawa. The only quality scoring team in that bunch is the Thrashers. So, while you can’t take anything away from the Penguins, let’s not ignore that its schedule has been rather easy and that they were just a game above .500 when they went on this hot streak. Finally, the oddsmakers have set an interesting puck line here. The Pens are -½ +1.47 while the Sabres are +½ -1.60. In other words if you back the Sabres taking a half puck in regulation time you would have to lay 60 cents and nobody is going to do that. These lines are designed into taking bettors off the right side and the right side here is the Sabres in regulation. Play: Buffalo +1.08 (Risking 2 units).
LOS ANGELES -½ -1.05 over Minnesota
The Kings have been sleeping for about three weeks but they really came back to life in its last game vs the Flames. They’ve won three in a row but were not as sharp in the previous two games as they were against Calgary in a game they dominated from start to finish. This is still one of the best teams in the NHL and it now appears that funk is over and done with. The Wild come in here as the vastly inferior squad. They’re coming off a road win in Phoenix but so what. They’ve dropped seven of its last nine games and they’ve simply overachieved all year. If not for some strong goaltending the Wild may have less points than the Islanders this season and that’s because they always get dominated and this one should be no different. Play: Los Angeles -½ -1.05 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
Chicago +1.31 over SAN JOSE
The Sharkies are in a difficult spot here in that they’ll play ifs sixth game in nine nights and they also return home from a five game trip that started on Dec 2. If that’s not tough enough, San Jose played two games on the road in Edmonton and Vancouver back on November 26 and 27 before returning home for one game against the Red Wings. All in all, this will be the ninth consecutive game that the Sharks have had to board a plane and travel to its next destination. It’s almost unfair but the Blackhawks will have zero sympathy for them. Chicago comes in hot with three straight wins and five wins in its last six games. They’re getting tremendous goaltending from rookie Corey Crawford and he’ll get the start again tonight. The Blackhawks have scored 16 goals over its last three victories and it would appear that they’ve adjusted to all the player personnel changes they started the year out with. This is still an elite team that is firing on all cylinders right now and they couldn’t have handpicked a more favorable time to play the Sharkies in San Jose. Great situational play here with value. Play: Chicago +1.31 (Risking 2 units).
Carolina +1.63 over ST. LOUIS
The Hurricanes were off for six days before they played in Dallas last night. They were game in a 2-1 OT loss and they’re very likely going to be even better tonight. The Hurricanes have played just three games this month and therefore they’re getting overlooked. However, they’ve picked up points in four of its last six games and they’re a very decent squad. In addition, Cam Ward is playing as good as he’s ever played and that game last night after a six-day layoff will work to their advantage. Meanwhile, the Blue Notes were completely jacked up to play the Jackets in its last game after Columbus humiliated them earlier in the year by a score of 8-1. That’s all they could talk about for two days leading up to that game and they went out and beat them by a 4-1 count. Now they’ll play a Carolina team they rarely see. They also have the Red Wings on deck and even if the Blues are at their best, which they are clearly not with injuries to Oshie and MacDonald, they would not have an easy time with the Canes. The Blue Notes are struggling to score goals, they’ve lost five of its last seven games and regardless of the outcome the Blues are the most overpriced team on the board today. Of course the Canes can win here. Play: Carolina +1.63 (Risking 2 units).
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Texas A&M Aggies +1.5
You better have a darn good reason to go against the Aggies at home. Texas A&M has won 68 consecutive regular-season home games against non-Big 12 competition. The Aggies are off to a 5-0 start on their home floor this season, and their ATS numbers are jaw-dropping good. The Aggies are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 games overall and 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games. Texas A&M is also 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games as a home underdog of 6.5 or fewer points. The Aggies have been a superb underdog in general. They are 35-16 ATS in their last 51 games as an underdog and 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games as an underdog of 6.5 or less points. This is Washington's first true road game of the season, which is always a challenging spot. Plus, A&M will have revenge on the brain after losing 73-64 in Seattle last year. Texas A&M has won three of its last four home games against ranked teams, and I expect it to bring another one to its knees here.
Jack Jones
Detroit Pistons -2
The Detroit Pistons are showing excellent value tonight as just a 2-point home favorite against the Toronto Raptors. All you really need to know coming into this game is that Toronto has just 2 road wins on the season, going 2-9 away from home. They are giving up a whopping 108.9 PPG on the road this year and though Detroit has not been spectacular, the Pistons are clearly the right play Saturday.
Five of Detroit's seven wins have been at home this year where they own a .500 record. The Raptors have lost four straight heading into this one. Detroit is 39-19 since 1996 in all meetings with Toronto, including 22-8 at home during that stretch. Toronto will be playing the second of a back-to-back, and the Raptors are 9-20 ATS in their last 29 games playing on 0 days rest. The Pistons are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game. Detroit is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Roll with the Pistons Saturday.
Frank Jordan
Navy vs. Army
Play: Navy -7.5
With the bowl game approaching this is the last regular season college game as Navy is pitted against Army. Navy is 8-3 on the year and has a winning record on the road at 3-2. Army is 6-5, but only 2-3 at home. Look for Navy to do what they do best and ground and pound the ball with the option leaving Army in the dust. Play Navy
Black Widow
1* on Minnesota Timberwolves +9.5
There is no better time to fade the Bulls than today. Chicago is coming off a huge victory over the defending chamion Los Angeles Lakers last night, which was their "game of the year" to this point. No question they won't show up against the Minnesota Timberwolves Saturday, and not only will Minnesota cover they'll likely win outright. The Timberwolves are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. Eastern Conference. The Bulls are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 & 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5. The clear value here is with the road team as nearly a double-digit underdog. Take Minnesota and the points.
Dave Price
1 Unit on Raptors/Pistons UNDER 201.5
Detroit knows it can't run with Toronto and expect to win. Slowing the game down gives Detroit its best chance for a victory and it has been very successful in controlling the tempo against uptempo squads. In fact, Detroit is 25-11 UNDER versus up-tempo teams averaging 83 or more shots/game over the last 2 seasons. We have only seeing a total of 194.9 points scored on average in these games. With both teams having just played last night, expect a slower paced game to result in the Under here.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Utah Jazz +5.5
Motivated by last week's loss to Dallas, expect Utah to cover this number as it takes the Mavs right down to the wire tonight. The Jazz are an awesome 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog. The Mavericks are a disappointing 14-35-3 ATS in their last 52 home games and just 9-23-2 ATS in their last 34 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5 points. Take the points.
SPORTS WAGERS
Georges St-Pierre (Inside the Distance) -105 over Josh Koscheck
This is one of the most anticipated matches in the history of the sport. If a fight was ever to personify a battle between good and evil this is it. Josh Koscheck has improved by leaps and bounds since the last time these two combatants met over three years ago. At that time he was a polished wrestler but lacked any semblance of a striking game. With three of his last six wins coming via TKO or KO he has now proven himself to be one of the hardest hitters in the welterweight division. Georges St-Pierre has uncorked seven consecutive dominating victories and looks better every time he steps into the octagon. His regimen is second to none and he trains against an army of fighters to prepare for every battle. Koscheck isn't the same fighter he was in 2007 but neither is GSP. He too has improved exponentially and has even been working with Freddie Roach on his striking. That's the same Freddie Roach who trains Manny Pacquiao and has trained Mike Tyson, Oscar De La Hoya and an assortment of other top boxers. You can rest assure that complacency won't be a problem for GSP, as his motivation for this fight supersedes any one before it. He doesn't waste his time getting into a war of words with trash talkers but has always let his fists, legs and superior grappling get the last laugh. It would be irresponsible to endorse playing him outright at nearly –5-1 but getting nearly even money on him to win inside the distance seems like tremendous value, especially considering the UNDER 4½ rounds is a –1.50 favorite. You certainly get the feeling that a victory won't be enough to satisfy GSP. He is extremely motivated to finish the fight before the 25-minute mark to appease himself, his hometown fans and prove that heroes do prevail. Play: Georges St-Pierre (Inside the Distance) –1.05 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
Sean McCorkle +1.45 over Stefan Struve
This fight wins the award for the tallest combined height of two opponents in the history of the UFC with McCorkle standing at 6"7' and Struve at 6"11'. Stefan Struve is 4-2 in the UFC and is coming off of one of the most incredible comeback victories you will ever see. There is no questioning his heart but he has certainly had trouble with fighters of the heavy-handed variety. Both Junior Dos Santos and Roy Nelson knocked him out in under a minute and a strong argument could be made that Paul Buentello should have gotten the nod in their bout that ended in a majority decision. He could easily be 2-4 in the UFC right now if not for miraculous turnarounds against both Christian Morecraft and Denis Stojnic that left him bloody and battered. Sean McCorkle was extremely impressive in his UFC debut back in September when he nearly ripped Mark Hunt's arm off from his back. He's 10-0 in his MMA career and only one of those victories came by decision. He's won four fights by TKO and three of his submission wins were actually a result of punches. McCorkle had to make a significant weight cut to get down to 265, while Struve is probably at his heaviest at 253. Struve's heart and determination are incredible but he offers no value here. Expect Sean "Big Sexy" McCorkle to use his power advantage to score an early knockout victory. Play: Sean McCorkle +1.45 (Risking 2 units).
Charles Oliveira (inside distance) +3.14 over Jim Miller
The fact that this fight is happening so early in Charles Oliveira's career tells you exactly how talented Dana White and the UFC thinks he is. He's 20-years-old and sports a 14-0 record but has only fought twice in the UFC. He finished both Darren Elkins and Efrain Escudero by submission and dominated every second of those fights. Jim Miller might be one of the most underrated Lightweights in the sport. He is 18-2 in MMA and 7-1 in the UFC. He has finally propelled himself into the Lightweight title picture but will get derailed tonight. Oliveira's dynamic style and relentless attack rivals that of another future UFC champion in Jon Jones. His submission skills, unorthodox striking and constant reach advantage make him a future superstar in the sport. Expect this Brazilian prodigy to catapult himself even further up the Lightweight ladder with another dazzling performance tonight. Play: Charles Oliveira (inside distance) +3.14 (Risking 2 units).
John Howard +2.45 over Thiago Alves
This play is all about value. Thiago Alves has only fought twice in the last two years and lost both contests. Fair enough they were against Jon Fitch and Georges St-Pierre respectively but there are much more alarming issues with "The Pit-bull". He had corrective surgery on his brain on March 31, 2010 and missed weight in two of his last four fights. There are some serious doubts whether he is the same Thiago Alves that rhymed off seven victories over a two-year span. John Howard is 14-5 in his career and 4-1 in the UFC. His only loss in the octagon came via doctor stoppage after his eye swelled to the size of a grapefruit his last time out vs. Jake Ellenberger. Howard was holding his own in that bout up until that point and Ellenberger is no slouch sporting a 23-5 professional record. Both of these guys are Muay Thai specialists that love to throw bombs. If either fighter makes a mistake the other will put them to sleep. When big punches are flying it's almost a coin-flip, so it only makes sense to take the value of over 2-1 on John "Doomsday" Howard. Play: John Howard +2.45 (Risking 2 units).
Mark Bocek –1.30 over Dustin Hazelett
Mark Bocek is 8-3 in his MMA career and 4-3 in the UFC. His three losses were all against quality fighters in Frankie Edgar, Mac Danzig and Jim Miller. Six of his eight career victories have come via submission and he is 5-1 when fighting on Canadian soil. Dustin Hazelett is 12-6 in his MMA career and 5-4 in the UFC. He is dropping down to the Lightweight division but it seems like a desperate move. It's never good when a fighter is coming back after a knockout, so it's even worse that Hazelett is coming off of two straight. He's been sent to la-la-land in three of his last five fights and that's usually a recipe for disaster. This is as much of a play against Hazelett as it is on Bocek. Expect a confident Mark Bocek to leave Hazelett looking for answers once again. Play: Mark Bocek (Risking 2.6 units to win 2).
T.J Grant +155 over Ricardo Almedia
TJ Grant is 16-4 in his MMA career and 3-2 in the UFC. He has won against all of the opponents he was supposed to beat so far in the octagon and his two losses came against formidable opponents in Johny Hendricks and Dong Hyun Kim. Those two fighters sport a combined record of 8-1 in the UFC. Ricardo Almedia has enjoyed a decent career thus far in MMA with a record of 12-4. He is 1-1 in the Welterweight division with his most recent effort being a submission loss to Matt Hughes. His victory in the weight class was against Matt Brown who has lost his last three matches. Grant always brings a legitimate threat and he offers tremendous value at plus money. Expect TJ Grant to put together one of the best fights of his career to lock down a win for Canada on the undercard. Play: TJ Grant +1.55 (Risking 2 units).
Jesse Bongfeldt +150 over Rafael Natal
Jesse Bongfeldt comes into this match completely underestimated. Sure it's his debut in the UFC but he enters with an impressive professional record of 21-7. He finished all 21 of those fights inside the distance by either submission or knockout. One of those victories came via arm bar against the aforementioned TJ Grant. Rafael Natal lost his UFC debut to Rich Attonito, who then lost his next fight to Dave Branch. He entered the UFC at 12-2 but he is simply overvalued here. Jesse "Water" Bongfeldt will want to make his UFC debut a winning one on Canadian soil and he sports all kinds of value here. Play: Jesse Bongfeldt +1.50 (Risking 2 units).
Chuck O'Brien
UNLV (+3') at LOUISVILLE
For today’s complimentary college basketball selection, take UNLV at Louisville in an early start from the Cardinals’ brand-new arena.
These teams are a combined 16-0, but for my money, UNLV’s 9-0 start has been much more impressive. The Runnin’ Rebels started the season with three straight home wins, capped on Nov. 20 by a hard-fought 68-65 victory over Wisconsin. Since beating the Badgers, though, UNLV has been forced out of its arena because of a national rodeo, and all the Rebels have done is rip off six straight road/neutral-site victories.
Four were double-digit wins, another was a nine-point victory over Tulsa, and the last one was Wednesday’s 75-72 win over Boise State (the Rebels scored the first 15 points, led 22-4 at one point and were still ahead by 16 points late in the contest).
Meanwhile, Louisville hasn’t left the comforts of home all season. Nor has it played a decent team all season, bullying on the likes of Jackson State, Chatanooga, South Alabama and San Francisco.
The Cardinals are in a double-revenge situation, having lost to UNLV each of the last two years by a combined six points. But Louisville had a Final Four team in 2008 and last year’s squad was solid. This year, the Cardinals are very young, and I don’t trust young teams that have yet to be tested. The Rebels (10-3 ATS last 13 road games) will provide that test, as they’re the squad with the experience and depth that Louisville lacks. Plus, I’ll take UNLV coach Lon Kruger over overrated Rick Pitino any day.
4♦ UNLV
Chris Jordan
UNLV (+3') at LOUISVILLE
Time to put up or shutup.
And while that's usually the comment made about UNLV in a game like this, it's prove yourself time for Louisville.
Not today Cardinals!
Even their hometown paper is saying they'll find out if they're legitimate, against a much-better UNLV team, which is currently ranked 19th and 20th in the two big polls, but could move up significantly over the holidays with wins like this.
As physical as the Rebels are playing, you'd think they were playing out of the East Coast - like an ACC or Big East team would - as they attack the basketball, they attack the boards, they take high-percentage shots thanks to transition basketball and they dominate with their scoring margin.
UNLV is shooting 53.3 percent from the field and limiting opponents to 36.9 percent, both numbers which rank in the top 10 in those categories; only two teams in the nation stake claim to that success.
Look for UNLV to stay aggressive on the basketball, trapping the Cardinals, switching effectively and playing smart basketball on defense. By doing so, the Rebels create better scoring opportunities for themselves, while limiting the things the opposition can do.
I'll gladly take the points with the Rebels in this one.
5♦ UNLV
Michael Cannon
Detroit (-6') at EASTERN MICHIGAN
Lay the points with Detroit on the road over Eastern Michigan.
Detroit is a solid 4-0 ATS on the road so far this year, covering at New Mexico, Syracuse, Mississippi State and Western Michigan.
That’s no cupcake road slate and the fact the Titans managed to grab the cash in all four suggests they should roll here over a thin Eastern Michigan team.
Emu has one player averaging double-digits in scoring. Forward Brandon Bowdry is going to find the going tough in the paint against Detroit’s Eli Holman and Nick Minnerath however, so the Eagles will probably struggle to keep this game close.
Eastern Michigan’s only win this season has come against Madonna University and I don’t even know where that school is located.
Lay the points with Detroit for the win and cover.
3♦ DETROIT
Bobby Maxwell
Arizona vs. BYU (-2'), at Salt Lake City
Tonight I am coming with a FREE winner from the college hardwood as I lay the small points and play BYU to take care of Arizona.
Today is one of those Saturday's folks that you cannot afford to pass up. I am coming with my First 900 Unit college football play of the season! That's right, a huge winner in the Army-Navy rivalry game that will treat you to 900 Units. I've turned a profit each of the last five days and have pocketed 1,800 Units in those five days. You can add another 900 after today's easy call!
For my comp play, last season BYU destroyed Arizona 99-69 in Tucson, handing the Wildcats their worst loss ever at the McKale Center. This one won’t be a 30-point blowout, but I fully expect the Cougars to come out and beat up Arizona again, winning by at least 10 points.
Jimmer Fredette hit nine 3-pointers against Arizona last season and scored a school record 49 points, dishing out nine assists and grabbing seven rebounds. The Cougars are coming off an 86-58 win over Vermont on Wednesday that saw Fredette put in 26 points and dish out five assists.
Arizona struggled to beat Cal State Fullerton 73-62 on Wednesday, coming up well short as 26-point favorites. The Wildcats are just 1-4 ATS in their last five against Mountain West Conference squads. Meanwhile, BYU is 11-5 ATS when it goes up against a Pac-10 squad.
The Cougars are playing in the larger EnergySolutions Arena in Salt Lake City tonight, just like they did last week against Hawaii, winning 78-57 as 25-point favorites. It just means more BYU fans can get there to watch the game.
I’ll lay the points with BYU in this one.
4♦ BYU
Karl Garrett
Colorado State vs. KANSAS (-22') - at Kansas City, MO
In the college ranks I have what Dicky V would call "blowout city" lined up for you for free, as I expect the Kansas Jayhawks to put a licking on the Colorado State Rams.
Huge "step up" game for State, and they could still be thinking about their overtime loss to in-state rival Colorado their last time out.
Kansas got a scare 2 games ago from UCLA, as the Bruins were near 20 point underdogs and took the Rock Chalkers right down to the wire in a 1-point loss. Kansas followed up that close shave with a 13-point win and over over a solid Memphis team at Madison Square Garden earlier this week, and it looks to the G-Man like KU is all set to hit the ground running in this spot today.
This is a "step down" game for the Jayhawks after 3 straight games against quality foes, and while the Rams are improving, they are nowhere near ready to battle Kansas for the full 40 minutes.
This one gets away from Colorado State midway through the second half.
Lay it.
4♦ KANSAS
Scott Delaney
Colorado State vs. Kansas, at Kansas City
The Jayhawks are about to due to finallly thump someone pretty good, and why not the hapless Rams.
They come in off Tuesday night’s 81-68 win over Memphis in the Jimmy V Classic in New York City’s Madison Square Garden, and I'm thinking a 13-point win over annual tough-guy team Memphis, doubling that effort against the Rams shouldn't be an issue.
Especially when Kansas leads the Big 12 in scoring (88.8), scoring margin (plus-28.3), field-goal percentage (56.9), three-point field-goal percentage (41.5), three-point field-goal percentage defense (24.4), assists per game (20.9), blocked shots per game (6.5) and assist-to-turnover ratio (1.6).
This is simply too much team - athletically and physically for Colorado State to contend. The Rams might put a scare into the 'Hawks, but the discipline employed by Kansas will guide it to a blowout by the middle of the second half.
1♦ KANSAS
Derek Mancini,
Gonzaga (+7') at NOTRE DAME
For your free pick, let's take a look at the Gonzaga-Notre Dame game in South Bend.
If you look no deeper than just each team's win/loss record, then Notre Dame appears to be the play. But let's be honest, records are deceiving, and that couldn't be more true in this match up. Not only is the Irish's 8-1 record a total farce, but the opposite can be said of the Bulldogs 4-4 mark, considering each team's respective competition.
Are you really impressed by a Notre Dame team that padded its stats with four straight non-lined games to open the season? Did you see what happened when the Irish finally played a ranked opponent? Kentucky made them look stupid, dominating them in the second half en route to a 72-58 win and cover earlier this week.
Zag's on the other hand, can attribute 3 of their 4 losses to ranked opposition, which is a heck of a lot more than the Irish can say. I agree, they did not play well in those games, and their most recent loss to Washington State was a real head-scratcher. Most players in Vegas abandoned ship following their 81-59 blowout loss to the Cougars, which is understandable. However, oddsmakers are well aware of the public's perception of each team and have set the line as such. I'd be very wary of joining the 90 percent of players who are riding the Irish in this spot; Mark Few is too good a coach (and Gonzaga too good a team) to not put up a major fight here.
Bottom Line: Look for the Zag's big 3 (Sacre, Gray, and Harris) to bounce back strong against an Irish defense that's padded it's numbers in the early going. While they still may get the SU win, Notre Dame will get exposed here as a good but hardly great squad.
3♦ GONZAGA
Karl Garrett
Memphis at L.A. CLIPPERS (-1)
Strange Saturday matinee in the NBA between Memphis and the L.A. Clippers, and at a near pick, prefer to side with the visiting Grizzlies.
Memphis is wrapping up this 4-game road swing with the stop at the Staples Center, and they did gut out a nice overtime win at Phoenix their last time out to avoid the collar on their current swing.
The Clippers have been a mixed-bag of late, and after falling by 1-point to the Lakers their last game, and having a game tomorrow night with Orlando could be in that dreaded "sandwich" spot tonight.
Memphis has covered 7 of 12 away from home this year, and they have won 2 of the last 3, and 4 of the last 7 series meetings overall.
In a near pick spot, the G-Man is on Memphis.
3♦ MEMPHIS
Joel Tyson
Boston at CHARLOTTE (+6)
Celts were off last night, while the Bobcats were playing at Indiana, but even with no rest I prefer grabbing the points with the home underdog 'Cats.
Boston's winning streak stands at 9 in a row, but they had to go right down to the wire in their 1-point win over Philadelphia on Thursday night on the road.
Charlotte has picked things up at home of late, winning and covering their last 3 home dates to improve to 5-3-2 against the spread on their home floor.
Series numbers show Boston with 4 straight wins, but just 5-12 against the spread the last 17 times these teams have tussled. The underdog in the series is also 13-3 the last 16 meetings.
Go ahead and take the points with the Bobcats this Saturday night.
3♦ CHARLOTTE
Chuck O'Brien
Boston at CHARLOTTE (+6)
For Saturday’s complimentary selection in the NBA, take the points with Charlotte at home against the streaking Celtics.
I know Boston has won nine in a row overall, including four straight on the highway, and is 8-3 SU and ATS on the road this season. But this is the Celtics’ third game in four nights (all in different cities), and that’s a lot of basketball for a team with so many key players who have a lot of miles on their legs. One such aging veteran is Shaquille O’Neal, who is questionable tonight with a calf injury.
Shaq didn’t play Friday at Philadelphia, and his absence was noticeable defensively, as Boston gave up 101 points in a 102-101 victory as a five-point road favorite (prior to that, the Celtics had held seven of eight opponents to 95 points or less, giving up just 87.3 ppg over that eight-game stretch, all wins).
Although Charlotte is in a back-to-back situation (coming off last night’s 100-92 loss at Indiana), it’s not like the Bobcats had a long trip back home. And speaking of home, they’ve won three in a row and five of six at Bobcats Arena (only misstep was a 99-95 loss to the Knicks), and they’re 5-2-2 ATS in their last nine home contests (3-0-2 ATS as a home underdog).
Furthermore, Charlotte has fared very well at the window in recent years against Boston, cashing in 12 of the last 17 meetings. The underdog is on a 13-3 ATS roll in this rivalry, and Wednesday’s non-cover at Philly means the Celtics are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games against sub-.500 teams.
3♦ CHARLOTTE
Bobby Maxwell
Toronto (+2') at DETROIT
For my comp play, the Raptors dominated the Pistons four times last season and I’m going to grab the points with Toronto today to keep the streak alive.
Toronto won and covered in all four of those games last season and they are looking to snap a four-game losing streak today. On the other side, the Pistons have lost three straight (SU and ATS) and they have dropped seven of the last eight (2-6 ATS).
Detroit has really struggled to score points lately, managing just 89.8 points a game and 42.5 percent shooting. Meanwhile, the Raptors have averaged 107.2 points per game in the last five contests and they’ve been shooting it at a 48.1 percent clip. The Pistons have scored in triple digits just once in their last seven games, including Friday when the T’Wolves beat them 109-99 as four-point favorites. Toronto has scored 100 or more in eight of their last 10.
The Raptors are on ATS surges 13-5-1 on the road, 7-2-1 as an underdog and 4-1-1 as a road ‘dog. Detroit is on ATS skids of 5-12-1 on the second night of a back-to-back, 1-5 overall and 2-7-1 against Atlantic Division teams.
Go ahead and grab the points with the Raptors in this one.
3♦ TORONTO
Stephen Nover
Toronto at DETROIT (-2)
I like the Pistons to cover at home versus Toronto for my comp play tonight.
Detroit is 5-0 ATS its past five home contests against foes with a losing road mark.
The Raptors are off a tough 123-116 home loss to Denver last night. The Nuggets defeated the Raptors despite missing Carmelo Anthony.
Greg Monroe is giving the Pistons a spark with his rebounding and enthusiasm. The Raptors could be without point guard Jose Calderon again. He has a foot injury, which caused him to miss last night's game.
2♦ DETROIT
Derek Mancini
Toronto at DETROIT (-2)
By Featured Handicapper
Two struggling teams meet tonight at the Palace, and despite all that's wrong with this Pistons team, I'm liking them in this spot. Did you know that they're 5-0 SUATS this season at home against opponents with a losing road record?! No doubt the Raptors fall into that category, and what's worse is they're going to be short-handed once again tonight.
That's right, another night without a true point guard running the offense, as Jose Calderon didn't even make the trip due to a foot injury. Just to give you an idea of how much his absence takes away from the Toronto offense: if you combine the assist numbers from Weems, DeRozan, Barbosa, and Bayless you'd only have 10 more assists than Calderon has on the season (151 to 141)! Pretty scary if you ask me.
Given the Pistons success against lesser teams at home, and the fact the Raptors will be without a true point guard, I'm comfortable laying a basket to play Detroit here. Not only that, but if you look at each team's recent play, there's no question the Detroit defense has been far superior, allowing just 99 ppg over their L5 compared to a ridiculous 115 ppg for the Raptors. Lay it with Detroit as they protect their house Saturday.
2♦ DETROIT
Craig Davis
Navy (-7') vs. Army, at Philadelphia, PA
Today's free play is on the Navy Midshipmen over arch-rival Army.
Vegas knows Army is improved, so they couldn't give the Black Knights too many points, but listing them as an 8-point favorite makes it hard for Army supporters not to take the touchdown and the extra point. Bravo Vegas, very well done. This is a tough line, but I believe Navy is simply better in all three phases of the game and I like their veteran leadership under center.
Ricky Dobbs is getting and better through the air, yet his bread-and-butter remains the triple option in which Dobbs can give to the fullback, keep, or pitch to a halfback. Navy feels as if they can run the ball 50 times as a team today, Army has no chance. I tend to agree.
The Black Knights are clearly improved from a year ago, but have they improved enough to keep this game within a touchdown? Has Navy stayed stagant from a year ago? Those are two of the keys to this game, and I fully believe Dobbs and the Navy offense will be hard to stop.
Navy hasn't lost to Army since 2001 and I just don't see any imagineability as to that happening tonight. Take Navy as your free play of the day.
5♦ NAVY
Michael Cannon,
Navy vs. Army (+7')
Take the points with Army this afternoon over Navy.
I know it’s hard going against a Navy team that has beaten Army eight straight times and is on a 14-5 ATS run in this series, but I believe Army is closing the gap on its bitter rivals.
When Army beat Kent State it became bowl eligible for the first time since 1996!
The Black Knights actually have the edge on defense and special teams in this matchup, so it wouldn’t surprise me at all if they challenged for the outright win.
A lot of motivation for Army here today as it tries to end this losing streak against Navy.
Take the points with Army for the cover.
3♦ ARMY
JR O'Donnell
Mavericks -5
The 17-7 Utah Jazz have huge match up problems with Dirk Nowitzki as the 18-4 Dallas Mavs have ripped off 11 straight and now will roll @ home vs the Jazz. The Jazz have a huge question mark here tonight in Raja Bell. The Mavs are not only scoring @ a 50.3 FG % clip the last 4 ballgames, they are also playing some great D, holding teams at 90 points the last 6 EASY W's. The Jazz were exposed by the Miami Heat and now they must fill some holes. The Mavs are capped here @ - 6.7 point favorite by our power ratings. These Mavs are the sharp side tonight. Let's roll with the home team . These Mavs are 14-3 Su vs the Jazz here. The home team is 21-6-1 ATS in the last 28 meetings in this series .
Ross Benjamin
Minnesota @ Chicago
Play: Under 207.5
The Bulls have gone under the total in 10 of their last 12 this season following a SU win. Chicago has gone under the total in 26 of their last 37 when the total is 200.0 or more. Any home team with a total of 200.0-209.5 coming off a SU win by 6 points or less, versus an opponent that's scored 100 points or more in their last 3 games has gone under the total 72 of the last 111 (64.9%) times since 1996. Play on this game to go under the total as my free selection of the night.
Hollywood Sports
Virginia Commonwealth at Richmond
Prediction: Richmond
Richmond (7-2) returns three starters -- led by senior point guard and reigning Atlantic 10 Player of the Year Kevin Anderson -- from their 26-9 squad that made the NCAA Tournament last season. Virginia Commonwealth (6-2) returns four starters from their 27-9 team that played in the CBI championship series but must replace Larry Sanders from that squad. While the Rams look to compete to win the Colonial Athletic Association, the deeper metrics indicate that the Spiders have the significant advantage. Effective Field Goal percentage (eFG) takes a team's field goal percentage and then assigns 50% more value to successfully converted 3-point shots since those baskets are 50% more valuable than made 2-pointers. This metric is preferred since it takes into account the frequency of made 3-pointers. Richmond is currently 9th nationally with a 58.7% eFG offensive mark. Defensively, their opponents sport only a 42% eFG which is 17th in the nation. Comparatively, VCU possesses a 52.3% eFG on offense (63rd) and a 47.3% eFG defensive mark (131st). The Rams have not effective in situations like this as they have failed to cover the spread in 4 of their last 5 road games as an underdog. Richmond, on the other hand, is 9-2-2 ATS in their last 13 games against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. On their home court, the Spiders should overwhelm VCU. Lay the points with Richmond.