DUNKEL INDEX
Army vs. Navy
The Midshipmen look to take advantage of an Army team that is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 games as an underdog of 10 1/2 points or more. Navy is the pick (-14) according to Dunkel, which has the Midshipmen favored by 15 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Navy (-14)
Game 103-104: Army vs. Navy
Dunkel Ratings: Army 70.198; Navy 85.886
Dunkel Line: Navy by 15 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Navy by 14; 41
Dunkel Pick: Navy (-14); Over
Game 143-144: Appalachian State at Montana
Dunkel Ratings: Appalachian State 78.913; Montana 87.166
Dunkel Line: Montana by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Montana by 4
Dunkel Pick: Montana (-4)
NBA
Portland at Milwaukee
The Bucks are coming off a 117-95 win over Toronto and look to build on their 10-1 ATS record in their last 11 games following a SU win by 10 or more points. Milwaukee is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Bucks favored by 5. Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-3)
Game 501-502: Indiana at Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 109.451; Washington 118.447
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 9; 202
Vegas Line & Total: Washington by 8; 205 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-8); Under
Game 503-504: Golden State at Detroit
Dunkel Ratings: Golden State 112.761; Detroit 119.950
Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 7; 208
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 505-506: Boston at Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 124.149; Chicago 112.825
Dunkel Line & Total: Boston by 11 1/2; 184
Vegas Line & Total: Boston by 9; 187
Dunkel Pick: Boston (-9); Under
Game 507-508: Charlotte at Dallas
Dunkel Ratings: Charlotte 115.259; Dallas 123.861
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 8 1/2; 194
Vegas Line & Total: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A
Game 509-510: Portland at Milwaukee
Dunkel Ratings: Portland 115.653; Milwaukee 120.724
Dunkel Line & Total: Milwaukee by 5; 194
Vegas Line & Total: Milwaukee by 3; 189 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Milwaukee (-3); Over
Game 511-512: Phoenix at Denver
Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 118.595; Denver 126.434
Dunkel Line & Total: Denver by 8; 224
Vegas Line & Total: Denver by 8 1/2; 228 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (+8 1/2); Under
Game 513-514: LA Lakers at Utah
Dunkel Ratings: LA Lakers 125.582; Utah 126.788
Dunkel Line & Total: Utah by 1; 209
Vegas Line & Total: LA Lakers by 2; 203 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Utah (+2); Over
Game 515-516: Minnesota at Sacramento
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 110.915; Sacramento 118.783
Dunkel Line & Total: Sacramento by 8; 210
Vegas Line & Total: Sacramento by 7 1/2; 206
Dunkel Pick: Sacramento (-7 1/2); Over
NCAAB
Georgetown vs. Washington
The Hoyas look to build on their 6-1-1 ATS record in their last 8 non-conference games. Georgetown is the pick (-1 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Hoyas favored by 2. Dunkel Pick: Georgetown (-1 1/2)
Game 517-518: Kentucky at Indiana
Dunkel Ratings: Kentucky 71.116; Indiana 57.203
Dunkel Line: Kentucky by 14
Vegas Line: Kentucky by 9
Dunkel Pick: Kentucky (-9)
Game 519-520: Ohio State at Butler
Dunkel Ratings: Ohio State 69.393; Butler 71.297
Dunkel Line: Butler by 2
Vegas Line: Butler by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ohio State (+3 1/2)
Game 521-522: Creighton at George Mason
Dunkel Ratings: Creighton 58.871; George Mason 58.775
Dunkel Line: Even
Vegas Line: George Mason by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Creighton (+2 1/2)
Game 523-524: Kent State at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Kent State 57.281; Pittsburgh 69.846
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 12 1/2
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 11 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-11 1/2)
Game 525-526: Ohio at Delaware
Dunkel Ratings: Ohio 54.210; Delaware 47.147
Dunkel Line: Ohio by 7
Vegas Line: Ohio by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ohio (-3 1/2)
Game 527-528: La Salle at Kansas
Dunkel Ratings: La Salle 57.422; Kansas 84.436
Dunkel Line: Kansas by 27
Vegas Line: Kansas by 21 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas (-21 1/2)
Game 529-530: Georgetown vs. Washington
Dunkel Ratings: Georgetown 70.379; Washington 68.245
Dunkel Line: Georgetown by 2
Vegas Line: Georgetown by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Georgetown (-1 1/2)
Game 531-532: Memphis at AR-Little Rock
Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 74.787; AR-Little Rock 55.355
Dunkel Line: Memphis by 19 1/2
Vegas Line: Memphis by 15
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (-15)
Game 533-534: Toledo at Valparaiso
Dunkel Ratings: Toledo 42.203; Valparaiso 54.860
Dunkel Line: Valparaiso by 12 1/2
Vegas Line: Valparaiso by 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Valparaiso (-10 1/2)
Game 535-536: Air Force at Washington State
Dunkel Ratings: Air Force 54.106; Washington State 69.261
Dunkel Line: Washington State by 15
Vegas Line: Washington State by 16 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Air Force (+16 1/2)
Game 537-538: San Francisco at Loyola-Chicago
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 49.361; Loyola-Chicago 53.237
Dunkel Line: Loyola-Chicago by 4
Vegas Line: Loyola-Chicago by 6
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+6)
Game 539-540: Denver at Portland
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 54.539; Portland 60.801
Dunkel Line: Portland by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Portland by 9
Dunkel Pick: Denver (+9)
Game 541-542: George Washington at Towson
Dunkel Ratings: George Washington 56.640; Towson 51.189
Dunkel Line: George Washington by 5 1/2
Vegas Line: George Washington by 5
Dunkel Pick: George Washington (-5)
Game 543-544: Oklahoma at Utah
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma 63.188; Utah 65.188
Dunkel Line: Utah by 2
Vegas Line: Utah by 1
Dunkel Pick: Utah (-1)
Game 545-546: St. Joseph's at Minnesota
Dunkel Ratings: St. Joseph's 54.773; Minnesota 74.980
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 20
Vegas Line: Minnesota by 16 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-16 1/2)
Game 547-548: Mississippi State vs. UCLA
Dunkel Ratings: Mississippi State 68.194; UCLA 64.755
Dunkel Line: Mississippi State by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Mississippi State by 6 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UCLA (+6 1/2)
Game 549-550: Marquette at Wisconsin
Dunkel Ratings: Marquette 65.542; Wisconsin 72.020
Dunkel Line: Wisconsin by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Wisconsin (-5 1/2)
Game 551-552: New Mexico vs. Texas A&M
Dunkel Ratings: New Mexico 68.879; Texas A&M 68.253
Dunkel Line: New Mexico by 1
Vegas Line: Pick
Dunkel Pick: New Mexico
Game 553-554: Troy at Marshall
Dunkel Ratings: Troy 51.183; Marshall 60.380
Dunkel Line: Marshall by 9
Vegas Line: Marshall by 7
Dunkel Pick: Marshall (-7)
Game 555-556: James Madison at Eastern Michigan
Dunkel Ratings: James Madison 48.045; Eastern Michigan 55.970
Dunkel Line: Eastern Michigan by 8
Vegas Line: Eastern Michigan by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Eastern Michigan (-5 1/2)
Game 557-558: Loyola Marymount at Notre Dame
Dunkel Ratings: Loyola Marymount 52.120; Notre Dame 65.914
Dunkel Line: Notre Dame by 14
Vegas Line: Notre Dame by 20 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Loyola Marymount (+20 1/2)
Game 559-560: Virginia Tech at Penn State
Dunkel Ratings: Virginia Tech 60.971; Penn State 63.397
Dunkel Line: Penn State by 2 1/2
Vegas Line: Penn State by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Penn State (-1 1/2)
Game 561-562: Kansas State at UNLV
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas State 67.287; UNLV 69.244
Dunkel Line: UNLV by 2
Vegas Line: UNLV by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas State (+2 1/2)
Game 563-564: Richmond at VCU
Dunkel Ratings: Richmond 64.909; VCU 66.252
Dunkel Line: VCU by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: VCU by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Richmond (+2 1/2)
Game 565-566: Southern Mississippi at South Alabama
Dunkel Ratings: Southern Mississippi 57.911; South Alabama 54.054
Dunkel Line: Southern Mississippi by 4
Vegas Line: Southern Mississippi by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Southern Mississippi (+1 1/2)
Game 567-568: TCU at Wichita State
Dunkel Ratings: TCU 57.071; Wichita State 67.352
Dunkel Line: Wichita State by 10 1/2
Vegas Line: Wichita State by 10
Dunkel Pick: Wichita State (-10)
Game 569-570: Oregon State at Nebraska
Dunkel Ratings: Oregon State 56.873; Nebraska 66.553
Dunkel Line: Nebraska by 9 1/2
Vegas Line: Nebraska by 7
Dunkel Pick: Nebraska (-7)
Game 571-572: Missouri State at Arkansas State
Dunkel Ratings: Missouri State 53.676; Arkansas State 51.802
Dunkel Line: Missouri State by 2
Vegas Line: Missouri State by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arkansas State (+4 1/2)
Game 573-574: Florida Atlantic at UL-Lafayette
Dunkel Ratings: Florida Atlantic 47.435; UL-Lafayette 50.637
Dunkel Line: UL Lafayette by 3
Vegas Line: UL Lafayette by 9 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida Atlantic (+9 1/2)
Game 575-576: Purdue at Alabama
Dunkel Ratings: Purdue 73.163; Alabama 68.162
Dunkel Line: Purdue by 5
Vegas Line: Purdue by 4
Dunkel Pick: Purdue (-4)
Game 577-578: San Diego at Boise State
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 52.124; Boise State 57.274
Dunkel Line: Boise State by 5
Vegas Line: Boise State by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Boise State (-4 1/2)
Game 579-580: BYU at Fresno State
Dunkel Ratings: BYU 68.176; Fresno State 59.149
Dunkel Line: BYU by 9
Vegas Line: BYU by 7
Dunkel Pick: BYU (-7)
Game 581-582: St. Mary's (CA) at Oregon
Dunkel Ratings: St. Mary's (CA) 67.870; Oregon 62.683
Dunkel Line: St. Mary's (CA) by 5
Vegas Line: St. Mary's (CA) by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Mary's (CA) (-1 1/2)
Game 583-584: Arizona at San Diego State
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 61.850; San Diego State 68.062
Dunkel Line: San Diego State by 6
Vegas Line: San Diego State by 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+7 1/2)
Game 585-586: Georgia Southern at North Carolina State
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia Southern 46.652; North Carolina State 62.549
Dunkel Line: North Carolina State by 16
Vegas Line: North Carolina State by 17
Dunkel Pick: Georgia Southern (+17)
Game 587-588: Ball State at Tennessee Tech
Dunkel Ratings: Ball State 51.738; Tennessee Tech 48.168
Dunkel Line: Ball State by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Tennessee Tech by 3
Dunkel Pick: Ball State (+3)
Game 589-590: Davidson at Gonzaga
Dunkel Ratings: Davidson 56.500; Gonzaga 72.320
Dunkel Line: Gonzaga by 16
Vegas Line: Gonzaga by 12 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Gonzaga (-12 1/2)
Game 591-592: Western Carolina at Louisville
Dunkel Ratings: Western Carolina 57.585; Louisville 68.574
Dunkel Line: Louisville by 11
Vegas Line: Louisville by 13
Dunkel Pick: Western Carolina (+13)
Game 593-594: Eastern Kentucky at Maryland
Dunkel Ratings: Eastern Kentucky 53.186; Maryland 71.547
Dunkel Line: Maryland by 18 1/2
Vegas Line: Maryland by 15
Dunkel Pick: Maryland (-15)
Game 595-596: Northern Colorado at Wyoming
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Colorado 56.108; Wyoming 51.774
Dunkel Line: Northern Colorado by 4 1/2
Vegas Line: Pick
Dunkel Pick: Northern Colorado
Game 597-598: Bowling Green at Canisius
Dunkel Ratings: Bowling Green 51.508; Canisius 50.951
Dunkel Line: Bowling Green by 1
Vegas Line: Canisius by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Bowling Green (+3 1/2)
Game 599-600: Iona at Providence
Dunkel Ratings: Iona 52.840; Providence 67.077
Dunkel Line: Providence by 14
Vegas Line: Providence by 12
Dunkel Pick: Providence (-12)
Game 601-602: Siena at Northern Iowa
Dunkel Ratings: Siena 62.197; Northern Iowa 67.386
Dunkel Line: Northern Iowa by 5
Vegas Line: Northern Iowa by 3 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Northern Iowa (-3 1/2)
Game 603-604: Montana at Colorado State
Dunkel Ratings: Montana 58.917; Colorado State 56.131
Dunkel Line: Montana by 3
Vegas Line: Colorado State by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Montana (+4 1/2)
Game 605-606: Sacramento State at Pacific
Dunkel Ratings: Sacramento State 43.375; Pacific 60.533
Dunkel Line: Pacific by 17
Vegas Line: Pacific by 15 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pacific (-15 1/2)
NHL
Boston at NY Islanders
The Islanders look to build on their 5-1 record in their last 6 home games. New York is the pick (+120) according to Dunkel, which has the Islanders favored by 1/2 a goal. Dunkel Pick: NY Islanders (+120)
Game 1-2: Anaheim at Columbus
Dunkel Ratings: Anaheim 11.781; Columbus 11.098
Dunkel Line & Total: Anaheim by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Columbus (-160); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Anaheim (+150); Under
Game 3-4: Washington at Toronto
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 11.832; Toronto 11.157
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 1/2; 7
Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-130); 6
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-130); Over
Game 5-6: Carolina at Ottawa
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 11.211; Ottawa 11.984
Dunkel Line & Total: Ottawa by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Ottawa (-200); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (-200); Under
Game 7-8: Montreal at Atlanta
Dunkel Ratings: Montreal 10.355; Atlanta 10.612
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta (-150); 6
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-150); Under
Game 9-10: Buffalo at NY Rangers
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 11.969; NY Rangers 11.449
Dunkel Line & Total: Buffalo by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: NY Rangers (-125); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+115); Under
Game 11-12: Boston at NY Islanders
Dunkel Ratings: Boston 11.685; NY Islanders 11.902
Dunkel Line & Total: NY Islanders by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Boston (-130); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Islanders (+120); Over
Game 13-14: Philadelphia at New Jersey
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 10.389; New Jersey 10.120
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: New Jersey (-150); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+140); Over
Game 15-16: Florida at Pittsburgh
Dunkel Ratings: Florida 11.157; Pittsburgh 11.702
Dunkel Line & Total: Pittsburgh by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Pittsburgh (-300); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-300); Under
Game 17-18: Detroit at Nashville
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 11.066; Nashville 11.713
Dunkel Line & Total: Nashville by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Nashville (-140); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Nashville (-140); Over
Game 19-20: San Jose at Phoenix
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose 11.319; Phoenix 11.124
Dunkel Line & Total: San Jose by 1/2; 4 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: San Jose (-130); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Jose (-130); Under
Game 21-22: Minnesota at Vancouver
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 12.473; Vancouver 12.584
Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-230); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (-230); Over
Game 23-24: Dallas at Los Angeles
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 11.677; Los Angeles 11.384
Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 1/2; 6 1/2
Vegas Line & Total: Los Angeles (-145); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+135); Over
Dominic Fazzini
Minnesota at SACRAMENTO -7'
I had an easy time of it Friday with my complimentary selection, backing the Spurs, who rolled at home against Charlotte. That win boosted my record to 39-24 over the past 63 days, including a 22-11 run over the last 33!
And there's more where that came from as I give you another easy NBA victory tonight behind the Kings. Sacramento has been solid at home this season, going 8-3 SU and ATS, including 5-0 on both counts in its last five.
Minnesota, on the other hand, is 1-10 SU on the road, and is being outscored away from home by an average of 105.9 to 93.4. The Timberwolves also have allowed an average of 119.5 games in losing their last two contests in Sacramento.
Minnesota is playing its fourth game in five nights, and was defeated 104-92 Friday night at Staples Center by the Lakers. The Kings, meanwhile, haven't played since Wednesday and are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games.
Rookie Tyreke Evans scores 20.2 ppg to lead six players in double-figure scoring for Sacramento, which averages 104.4 ppg, including 108.5 at home.
The Timberwolves are 0-4 ATS in their last four meetings with Sacramento, which is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games against a team with a losing record. Take the Kings to win by double digits tonight.
4♦ SACRAMENTO
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Oregon State +7
I expect Nebraska to be challenged at home Saturday against an experienced Oregon State team with 4 returning starters. Oregon State is coming off a huge blowout win and that has been a great time to back the Beavers. In fact, they are on a 9-1 ATS after a blowout win by 30 points or more. You also have to like the fact that the Beavers are catching some decent points here as they are 7-0 ATS as a road dog of 6.5 to 9 points under coach Craig Robinson. Last year's meeting between these two teams went right down to the wire and I expect this one to as well. Take the points.
Jr Tips
SUNS at NUGGETS
The Phoenix Suns are coming off a solid offensive performance at home last night against Orlando getting a 106-103 and tonight they play the Denver Nuggets as the NBA's two-highest scoring teams meet for the first time at the Pepsi Center. Phoenix will try to reverse its recent troubles away from home and avoid a fifth straight road loss to the Nuggets and get back on track as they have only averaged 94.5 points in dropping their last four games away from home. The home team has won the last nine games in the series as the two teams have averaged 236.8 points with just 1.8 points per game separating the clubs. Chauncey Billups had 26 points in Phoenix's most recent visit to Denver leading the Nuggets to a 119-113 win in overtime last Jan although Carmelo Anthony was missing due to an injury.Anthony has averaged just 20.5 points on 38.1 percent shooting in his last four games against the Suns but scored 34 points in the Nuggets' 107-95 loss at Charlotte on Tuesday, then scored 40 in a 101-99 loss in Detroit on Thursday which was the fourth 40+ point game of the season as he is the NBA's leading scorer at 30.3 points per game.Stoudemire has averaged 23.4 points on 67.8 percent shooting in his last five games in Denver but will need help from his supporting cast to get the win tonight. Once again this is another good spot for the suns to cover the spread as Denver is playing their first game at home after a long east coast road trip and 8 1/2 points is way to mush to give this team who has played Denver down to the wire in their last 5 matchups.
TAKE PHOENIX +8.5
LT Profits
Ohio @ Delaware
We actually feel that the visiting Ohio Bobcats are a much better team than the home standing Delaware Fighting Blue Hens in this contest, but we are always leery about giving points on the road with a MAC team. However, we do expect a low scoring game here and we feel the Under has nice value with a posted total of 143.
The raw numbers show that Ohio is averaging 77.9 points per game and Delaware is averaging 63.4 points, and while that combined total of 141.3 is just slightly less than thus posted total, we actually feel that Delaware will have a difficult time getting out of the 50s today.
This is because looking at the adjusted Pomeroy Ratings, which are adjusted for Strength of Schedule, the Ohio defense is allowing an excellent .0915 points per possession, which somewhat incredibly is ranks 55 in the nation ahead of many much higher profile teams. At the same time, Ohio grades out to an awful effective field goal percentage offensively of just 43.6 percent, and offense/defense combination that is very conducive to Unders.
As for Delaware, they have a terrible offensive PPP of .0937, ranking 262 out of 347 Division I teams. Thus, our skepticism about the performance of the Blue Hens offense this afternoon vs. what is apparently an underrated Ohio defense. The only risk to this Under appears to be the poor Delaware defense, but Ohio is not the type of team to run up the score, and they may not be able to anyway unless they improve their field goal percentage.
If we give Delaware 60 points here, which might even be a tad generous without late-game fouling, that would mean Ohio needs to score in the mid 80s for this game not to stay Under this total. We do not see that happening, so the Under seems like the safe play in this spot.
Pick: Ohio/Delaware Under 143
Tom Freese
Philadelphia Flyers at New Jersey Devils
Prediction: New Jersey Devils
New Jersey is 7-0 when playing with no rest and they are 21-7 their last 28 games overall. The Devils are 42-16 vs. losing teams and they are 36-16 their last 52 home games. Philadelphia is 19-44 their last 63 road games vs. a team with a home win percentage of over 60% and they are 16-37 when playing their fourth game in six nights. The Flyers are 0-7 their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning record and they are 9-26-4 their last 39 games at New Jersey. PLAY ON NEW JERSEY -
SPORTS WAGERS
Juan Diaz wins by 12 round decision +1.55 over Paul Malignaggi.
Close fight to call. One thing for sure here, no knockouts are expected in this one, as the soft-handed Paulie “The Magic Man” Malignaggi faces off against Juan “Baby Bull” Diaz. This is the rematch of a hotly contested decision won by Diaz where most experts thought Paulie seemed to have done enough to win. I see this fight going in the same direction as the first on. Diaz will push the pace and keep moving forward and Paulie will circle the ring with his slick-boxing style. Even though Paul Malignaggi showed how to beat Juan Diaz, he still came on the losing end of it. Now Diaz possesses that information and will definitely be ready for Paulie’s game plan. I expect Diaz to be more focused and better prepared this time around as he will earn a unanimous and convincing decision. Play: Diaz by decision +2.55 (Risking 2 units).
Antonio Diaz +6.00 over Victor Ortiz
After hearing Ortiz’s post fight interview in his last time out, I simply cannot afford to miss the boat on this one. “I have some thinking to do and I don't think I deserve to get hit like this”. This was following his brutal loss to Marcos Maidana last June in Los Angeles where this kid simply quit. I am very surprised to see Victor Ortiz fight again as he clearly exposed his mental toughness to the whole world. For a 22-year-old fighter to say stuff like that in his prime says a lot about his will to compete. Now he faces his mentor and childhood idol in Antonio Diaz. The strength for Diaz will be his size, experience and yes; his warrior presence in the ring. It is clear that Diaz is nowhere near what he used to be after so many wars, but this is all about going against a fighter that has some very hard questions to answer. Play: Diaz +6.00 (Risking 2 units).
Diego Sanchez +2.50 over BJ Penn
Folks, get ready for this one. Diego “The Nightmare” Sanchez vs BJ Penn, it doesn’t get any better than this! Diego Sanchez is simply balls to the wall for five straight minutes each and every round. He’ll look to wear Penn out swarming him with strikes and relentless takedown attempts. Penn’s strength & conditioning training with the infamous Marv Marinovich paid off against Kenny Florian. Penn was in the best shape of his life and he’s brought back Marv for this one. But come on, Diego is no Kenny Florian and this is no three-round fight. On my watch, as long as BJ doesn’t win by stoppage, he will lose each and every single time. Now on paper, BJ Penn shouldn’t have too much trouble winning this fight. His boxing and jiu-jitsu are superior to Sanchez’s and his takedown defense is typically stellar when he’s not facing GSP. But I just see Sanchez coming out ready to feast on BJ and prove to the whole world where he truly belongs; right there as the world champion. This fight will be at 155 pounds, a division where Diego has looked nothing less than impressive as he came all the way down from the 170 division in his last three fights and dominated. This will be too much for BJ Penn to handle, Diego Sanchez in pretty dominating fashion. Play: Sanchez +2.50 (Risking 2 units).
Frank Mir wins inside distance +1.02 over Cheick Kongo
This is Frank Mir’s first fight since being disrespected in the middle of the ring, on national TV and in front of the whole world by Brock Lesnar. Wow, I wouldn’t wanna be the first one facing him after this humiliating night versus the freak of nature. Mir is currently trying to make his way back toward the top of the division in hopes of a rubber match with Brock Lesnar after being completely dominated at UFC 100 at his own game. Kongo is looking to rebound from his loss to Cain Velasquez at UFC 99 after nearly punching Velasquez out in each of the three rounds, but eventually succumbing to Velasquez's wrestling background. Well I have some bad news for you Cheick, you are facing one of the best Brazilian jiu-jitsu specialists in the UFC and if Kongo fights like he’s known to fight, this one won’t be too long. There's no mystery on how each fighter will approach this fight. Mir isn't going to come out and try to prove that he has K-1 level striking, as he's said in past fights. He'll be looking to work his exceptional ground game to transition from submission to submission to catch Kongo's lengthy limbs. Kongo will want to work his reach and power from a distance with the help of his Mai Thai background to punish Mir. It's a simple, straightforward fight that has a lot of interesting questions that will be answered. Kongo's inability to block takedowns has been the sole reason he isn't an undefeated fighter and the reason why he will lose come Saturday night. Mir by easy submission. Play: Mir inside distance +1.02 (Risking 2 units).
Adrian Diaconu +2.60 over Jean Pascal
The first time these two met, Adrian Diaconu had previously fought once in a span of 3 years and still managed to lose a very close decision. This time however, rust won’t be a factor. “I improved everything; my speed, my footwork, I’m smarter and I feel better. I trained so hard and this time theres no excuses.” Adrian is a bull, he always gives up height advantage to his opponents but Teddy Atlas said it best, he is the closest thing to Mike Tyson when styles are compared as this guy can literally thump. I don’t get it, Jean Pascal defended his light heavyweight title on September the 25th in a hard fought bout against Silvio Branco and two months later they ask him to step in the ring against the shark? I expect two things to possibly happen, fatigue due to overtraining or an ineffective preparation caused by the lack of time in between. With all that aside, I really believe Adrian has the better chance of getting crowned at the end of the night. He gave Jean Pascal fits in their first encounter by rocking him a couple times and almost putting his lights out. Calling the upset, Adrian Diaconu comes out on top, possibly via a referee stoppage. Play: Adrian Diaconu +2.60 (Risking 2 units).
Stan Lisowski
BJ PENN (14-5-1) -285 vs. Diego Sanchez (23-2) +225
Lightweight Champion Penn is the #1 ranked lightweight fighter in the world while Sanchez is fighting for the third time at this weight, having beaten Joe Stevenson and Clay Guida leading up to this match. In what is arguably his toughest fight to date, Diego figures to push the pace as BJ has a history of cardio issues. However, having said that, much of Penn's issues with conditioning have not come at this weight, where at 155 he hasn't lost an opponent at this weight in almost 8 years. Penn also has enlisted that aid of a cardio/conditioning expert to no doubt try to offset the furious pace Sanchez will try to impose upon him. Sanchez has an advantage when those he presses, having a tendency to back down. Don't believe Penn will back down and given the defense he put up in his last fight against Kenny Florian, he should be readily prepared for whatever Diego brings. While this should be a very good fight, the reality is that Sanchez hasn't fought a fighter of this caliber before.
PICK BJ PENN
FRANK MIR (12-4) -194 vs. CHEIK KONGO (24-5-1) +154
Mir is a 2x heavyweight champ looking to erase the memory and images of the pounding he took in his last fight, a brutal loss to Brock Lesnar. Mir has stated that he will stay on his fight for this fight, but in reality, that really shouldn't be his game-plan. Kongo's weakness was on display in his last match where Cain Velasquez continually took him to the ground. That loss stopped a string of 3 straight technical knockouts for Kongo, so regardless of what Mir says, he doesn't want to keep this fight upright and face the striking power of the big Frenchman. Mir should want this on the ground as fast as he can so that he can utilize his world-class wrestling skills against the seemingly one-dimensional striker. If Mir's ego gets in the way as it did in his last match, he could conceivably get knocked out. Belief here is that he plays it smart and uses his ground game to his advantage as Kongo has never faced an opponent with the ground submission skills that Mir has got. (FYI-It's +120 Mir wins by submission on the prop line)
PICK MIR
KEN FLORIAN (14-4) -203 vs. CLAY GUIDA (25-7) +163
Guida is a relentless, cardio machine, full of constant energy and drive, which always makes for a great fight. Florian, he of the sick elbow strikes, is a skilled Muay Thai and Jiu Jitsu expert. Ken-Flo is looking to come back off of a loss in his last fight, which not only broke a string of 6 consecutive victories, but it also was the first defeat in 3 years for the native New-Englander. Guida is also looking to make amends for his last match, a tremendous bout with Diego Sanchez, which won those fighters "Fight of the Night" bonuses. Florian is a deliberate tactician, while "The Carpenter" resembles a wild caveman, always moving and in motion with hair flying. Guida has the ability to absorb a ton of punishment, while it seems he is incapable of tapping out as many skilled submission experts have failed to make him quit. In what has the makings of a most entertaining fight, Florian should be able to inflict enough damage with his elbows and knees on Guida to sway the judges in a 3 round war.
PICK FLORIAN
Jimmy Boyd
1 Unit on Denver +9
I've spotted a nice system play worth a 1 Unit wager today. Plays against favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points after trailing in their previous game by 15 or more points at the half, with all five starters returning from last season are 49-20 ATS since 1997 (71%). This system is a rock solid 26-7 ATS over the last 3 seasons and a perfect 1-0 ATS already this season. In addition, the key here is that Portland struggles defensively, allowing 82.7 ppg at home on the season. That is why it is on an 0-7 ATS run in home games versus poor defensive teams allowing a shooting percentage of 45% or better over the last 3 seasons. It is only winning against these teams by an average of 2.0 ppg because it fails to play good enough defense to put some of the worst defensive teams away. We'll take the points.
Joseph D'Amico
Mississippi State vs. UCLA
Play: Mississippi State-6
UCLA is off to one of their worst starts ever. At 2-5, the Bruin's are looking at a long, disappointing season. They are 0-3 TY on neutral site contests and have dropped 4 straight including a 27 point loss to Portland. Mississippi State has won and covered 3 straight, all by DD's. They have a phenominal rebounding squad that will own the glass today over UCLA. The Bulldog's are 4-1 ATS their L5 vs. teams with a winning perecentage of less than .400, 6-2 ATS their L8 neutral site games, and 9-3 ATS their L12 overall. The Bruin's are 1-5 ATS their L6 neutral site games, 2-5 ATS their L7 non-conference games, and 2-6 ATS their L8 overall. UCLA's woes continue. Take Mississippi State.
vegas-runner
Army +16 vs Navy
Unfortunately, the Wiseguys "bought back" their Bet on ARMY...so I will follow what has allowed us to have so much success this football season...and Officially Pass, since I won't go against the Outfits that I know for certain are winning...And the ones that made the "buy-back" are definitely winning in football this season...
But with that said, a lot of you asked for my Opinion on TNF...and I wished I gave it since I leaned CLE...
So I decided that since this is the only NCAAFB Game on tap today...that I would go ahead and pass along my lean, as a FREE PICK...And I myself, will be adding it to some Parlays...tied in with my Premium Plays...
Bottom Line...now that it's up over 2 Scores, I really think the Value lies with Army...who has been embarassed in recent years by Navy...And unlike the last few games, I believe that this season's Army team...can at the very least, make a game of it...