Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday February, 12

VEGAS EXPERTS

Illinois at Michigan
Play: Michigan

With losses in five of its last six games, Illinois is fading fast in the Big 10. Their lone win during this stretch came by one point, at home, against Michigan State. Things are not likely to change course Sunday afternoon in Ann Arbor where the Illini is just 2-8 ATS last 10 visits. The host Wolverines are a perfect 13-0 at Chrisler Arena this season where they allow an average of just 54.1 PPG. Illinois is averaging only 63.8 PPG on the road this season.

Rob Vinciletti

Stanford vs. USC
Play: Stanford -5.5

Stanford is a solid 34-8 vs teams who score less than 63 points per game and have covered 6 of the last 8 times most recently in this role. They have won all 9 games this season vs teams ranked 200 or higher and take on a USC teas that is 2-11 ats at home this season, 1-6 ats with road loss revenge, 2-8 ats off a loss and 5-11 ats after scoring 60 or less points last out. Even worse is their 0-11 mak vs teams ranked in the top 100 in the Rpi rankings. Lay the points here in this one as Stanford gets the win and cover.

MARC LAWRENCE

Washington @ Oregon State
PICK: Oregon State -3

Don’t look for OSU to play the perfect host here: Craig Robinson’s squad will be aching to get even for a 95-80 whipping administered by U-Dub at Seattle in late December. The Beavers were defenseless in that game, allowing six Washington players to score in double figures as the Huskies rolled to a 50-point first half. Our powerful database suggests a repeat performance is not likely as the visitors own a weak 9-17-2 ATS mark on the road versus a foe with same-season double-digit loss revenge. On the flip side, the Corvallis Crew has gone 17-7 ATS in the series when playing with two or more days rest and stood a profitable 6-3-1 ATS in home games this season. The Beavers also catch Washington in a big letdown off its showdown with Oregon. With Pac-12 scoring leader Jared Cunningham showing the way, OSU puts on an offensive clinic and sends the Huskies straight to the doghouse. We recommend a 1-unit play on Oregon State.

BRYAN POWER

Miami @ Atlanta
PICK: Miami -4

Of late, being the road team in this Southeast Division rivalry has been the way to go with the visitor taking five straight between Miami and Atlanta. The teams split a pair of games early last month with Miami winning on this floor as advertised, 116-109, avenging a 100-92 loss on their home floor just one week prior. The Heat were without both LeBron James and Dwyane Wade when they beat Atlanta. Therefore, look for the road team to make it six straight with the Heat laying just a short number Sunday evening at Phillips Arena against a Hawks team that went just 1-3 SU/ATS on its most recent home stand and is 3-7 SU/ATS L10 meetings overall with Miami. Atlanta is also 11-26 ATS off back to back wins.

JIMMY BOYD

1 Unit Washington Wizards +6

The Wizards have been awful this season, but the Pistons haven't been much better. Detroit certainly hasn't done anything to deserve laying this many points.

The Pistons took it to New Jersey last game, winning 109-92, but they are just 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games following a win of more than 10 points. The Pistons have been favored by 5 points or more twice this season and lost both of those games straight up. They are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall as a favorite.

There is also a rock solid system in our favor here. Consider that plays on underdogs that have been beaten by the spread by 54 or more total points in their last ten games, provided they are playing on Sunday, are 80-43 ATS since 1996. Teams fitting into this situation have been underdogs of 6.7 points on average but have only lost by an average of 3.7.

Basically, this system shows the way odds makers react to teams who aren't covering the number. The value increases with each ATS loss. Off 5 consecutive ATS defeats, and matched up against a Pistons squad off 5 consecutive ATS wins, the Wizards are showing value Sunday.

JIM FEIST

Rockets vs Warriors
Pick: Over

The Houston Rockets have been one of those teams this season that seem to play much looser defense on the road and then tighter up at home. Only four of the club's 13 home games have gone OVER while they have a 6-7 O/U mark on the road. This will be even more exaggerated tonight, as they play an up tempo Warriors team. Golden State has scored over 100 points in four straight games and six of their last seven. Golden State is ranked fourth in the NBA in scoring. But almost as important, the Warriors are dead last in points allowed in the NBA with a 100.9 average. Houston is sixth in the league in scoring and you couple that with Golden State's bad defense and high scores and it's a recipe for an OVER. I'm going OVER in this game on Sunday.

SPORTS WAGERS

Northwestern +6½ over PURDUE

The Boilermakers stock soared this week after they went into Ohio State as a 14-point pooch and nearly won outright. Every game has its variables and that was a bad spot for OSU, as the game against Purdue was sandwiched between Michigan, Wisconsin and Michigan State. That near miss against the #3 team in the country has the Boilermakers overpriced here. These two have virtually identical records. They're both 5-6 in the conference and they both have 15 wins overall. The difference is that the Wildcats are in better from with three straight wins while Purdue has lost four of its last five. Losing takes much more out of a team than winning. We also look at the Wildcats schedule and what we see is games against a lot of tough competition. The Wildcats strength of schedule is ranked 12th in the country and that's something that should never be overlooked. Purdue deserves to be favored, as Northwestern is just 2-5 on the road. However, the Boliermakers have no other advantages in this game and the only reason they're favored by this much is because of that close game against a semi-uninterested Buckeyes club. Wildcats can win this one outright. Play Northwestern +6½ (Risking 2.2 units to win 2).

SPORTS WAGERS

San Jose +110 over ST. LOUIS

Brian Elliott started for the Blues last night so there's a good chance Jaroslav Halak goes here. When betting against the Blue Notes, it's preferred that Halak is in net. If he's not, so be it, as St. Louis plays it third game in four days and tail end of back-to-backs. The Blue have a sick 22-3-4 home record, which is second to the Red Wings 22-2-1 home mark, yet the Red Wings are -160 tonight over Philly. Right off the bat that tells us that the odds makers give the Sharks a big chance here. The Blues should not be as dominant at home as they have been and as a result, a correction in their home record is likely forthcoming. St. Louis has beaten the Sharks in both games this year and it's just so tough to beat the same team three times in succession, especially quality teams like the Sharks. Now San Jose will embark on a nine-game trip and the first game of an extended trip is usually the one that sets the tone for the entire journey. The Sharks have scored three goals or more in five straight, they're in a better scheduling situation and the line strongly suggests they'll win it or take it to OT. Play: San Jose +110 (Risking 2 units).

JACK JONES

Golden State Warriors -1½

The Golden State Warriors are the real deal this season. It has taken them some time to gel under new head coach Mark Jackson, but this is going to be a very dangerous team from here on out.

Golden State comes into this game on two days' rest. Their last outing resulted in an impressive 109-101 road win at Denver. This well-rested team will be ready to go tonight when they take on the Houston Rockets.

Houston has won three straight, but they've been very fortunate in doing so. Kevin McHale is doing an solid coaching job over there, but he's starting to lose some of his best players. McHale benched leading scorer Kevin Martin during this recent stretch, and starting PG Kyle Lowry (14.7 points, 7.6 assists, 5.7 rebounds) missed last game with an arm injury.

The home team has won four of the last five meetings in this series. The favorite is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Golden State is 55-36 ATS in their last 91 after allowing 100 points or more 3 straight games. The Warriors are 29-15 ATS in their last 44 home games after scoring 105 points. Bet Golden State Sunday.

Jeff Alexander

Virginia Tech -12½

Line: Expect a letdown from Boston College here following its big upset win over Florida State. Virginia Tech, meanwhile, which lost at B.C. last month, will be out for revenge. The Eagles have been awful on the road this season. They are 0-6 in true road games, losing them by an average of 14.5 points. Also, teams coached by Seth Greenberg are 16-6 ATS at home when out for revenge for a same season loss since 1997. Lay the points.

Dave Price

1 Unit Golden State Warriors -2

The Warriors are quietly playing some very good basketball. They've won 4 of their last 7 overall and 3 of their last 5 at home, and 2 of the losses in each set came to Oklahoma City, who boasts the best record in the West. This matchup has been dominated by the home team, which is 5-1 ATS in the last 6 meetings. In addition, the favorite is 5-0 ATS in the last 5 meetings. Expect these trends to hold up this evening.

Andrew Lange

Boston College at Virginia Tech
Play: Under 121

Two teams that struggle to score and prefer to play at a moderate pace meet today with Boston College headed to Virginia Tech. Hokies head coach Seth Greenberg has said that he wants his team to run but the only games that were classified as "up-tempo" came against BYU, North Carolina and Maryland – three teams that don't mind getting up and down the floor. BC has made a habit of trying to shorten the game and for the most part it has worked with their last three game decided by 5, 4, and 4 – the last of which a home win over Florida State. Earlier in the year, the Eagles notched wins over Clemson and Virginia Tech. In those five aforementioned games, the scores were 116, 120, 107, 98 and 124. The last time these two teams met they combined for a rather high 40-of-56, 71% from the free throw line and that game still landed 120. Play this one under.

Rob Veno

Bradley at Missouri State
Play: Under 132

Shooting 40% from the field has become a real chore for Bradley the past half dozen games as they’ve achieved the feat barely only twice. The Braves have been a crooked shooting team all season averaging just 41.5% from the floor but now, the second time around in Missouri Valley Conference play, shots are falling at an even smaller rate. The stingy defense of Missouri State which is only allowing 40.0% from the floor this season isn’t the ideal unit for a Bradley outburst. Earlier this season in their 51-48 victory, Missouri State held Bradley to 37% shooting and their methodical style slowed the Braves to a 59 possession crawl. The Bears were even worse from the field hitting just 35% and scoring has been troublesome for them as well as they’ve failed to reach 70 points in seven consecutive games. Abundance of late game free throws are not likely in a game lined in this double-digit vicinity and combined these teams are 10-4 under the total since January 18th. If you subtract extreme offensive opponents Wichita State and Evansville from the equation, that number goes to 10-1 91% under. Expect a low possession contest with a game field goal percentage probably below the 40% mark and a final score that lands around 125.

Jeff Scott Sports

4 UNIT PLAY

Illinois/ Michigan Under 119: Gotta really like the under in this one with two team that can play some defense and don't like to push the ball. Michigan Conference games have averaged 121.8 ppg, but their conference home games have been a bit lower at 115.3 ppg (regulation only). The last 5 in this series has been very low scoring as they have averaged just 108.6 ppg, with none of the games posting more than 117 points. Illinois has played a couple of faced paced teams of late and in those 2 games they allowed 79 ppg, but this is still a team that can play good defense as they allowed just 58.6 ppg (regulation only) in their previous 7 games. Illinois has put up 70 ppg in their last 2 games, but in the previous 7 games (regulation only) they averaged just 59.4 ppg). The Illini will have problems scoring in this one as they will be taking on a Michigan team that has allowed just 55.8 ppg at home this year and 58.8 ppg in their last 5 games overall. Michigan does play a very slow paced game at home and that should help this game stay will under 119 points.

3 UNIT PLAY

Pittsburgh +2 over SETON HALL: Pittsburgh had won 4 in a row, but then ran into a bit of a buzz saw in South Florida as they lost a bad one 63-51. Even with that loss the Panthers are still playing much better than the Pirates right now. The Panthers are 4-1 in their last 5 games after they had lost 8 in a row and the biggest reason for their turn around has been the return of Trey Woodall, who has helped them averaged 72 ppg in their last 5 games, after averaging just 59.8 ppg during their 8 game skid. The Pirates know all about scoring woes right now as they have averaged just 55.8 ppg in going just 1-6 in their last 7 games, after they started the Big East 4-1. The Pirates have lost their last 3 Big East games as a favorite SU and I do not believe they should be favored in this one. The Pirates have allowed just 60.3 ppg in their last 5 games, but this team can not just score enough right now vs a rejuvenated Panther squad that is in dire need of solid wins. Pitt by at least 7 in this one.

2 UNIT PLAY

DETROIT -8 over Wisc- Green Bay: DETROIT is 15-4 ATS in home games when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) since 1997, while WI-GREEN BAY is 15-29 ATS after allowing 50 points or less since 1997. Detroit comes in at 10-4 at home this year, while the Phoenix are just 1-11 on the road. Green Bay struggles to score on the road as they have averaged just 57.9 ppg away from, while being outscored by 11.5 ppg in those games. Detroit scores 70.8 ppg at home, and they play good defense there, allowing just 64.7 ppg. Titans by DD here.