Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday, February 12,2011

DUNKEL INDEX

Philadelphia at Minnesota
The Sixers look to take advantage of a Minnesota team that is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games as an underdog from 1 to 4 1/2 points. Philadelphia is the pick (-4 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Sixers favored by 7 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-4 1/2).

Game 501-502: New York at New Jersey (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New York 115.545; New Jersey 116.673
Dunkel Line & Total: New Jersey by 1; 198
Vegas Line & Total: New York by 3; 206
Dunkel Pick: New Jersey (+3); Under

Game 503-504: Charlotte at Atlanta (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Charlotte 114.550; Atlanta 123.379
Dunkel Line & Total: Atlanta by 9; 195
Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 6 1/2; 188
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-6 1/2); Over

Game 505-506: Philadelphia at Minnesota (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 121.378; Minnesota 113.626
Dunkel Line & Total: Philadelphia by 7 1/2; 199
Vegas Line & Total: Philadelphia by 4 1/2; 205
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-4 1/2); Under

Game 507-508: Chicago at New Orleans (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 120.830; New Orleans 120.707
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 187
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago by 3; 180
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (+3); Over

Game 509-510: San Antonio at Washington (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 120.621; Washington 112.678
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 8; 204
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 6 1/2; 197
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-6 1/2); Over

Game 511-512: Dallas at Houston (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 119.419; Houston 120.184
Dunkel Line & Total: Houston by 1; 200
Vegas Line & Total: Dallas by 1 1/2; 207
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+1 1/2); Under

Game 513-514: Indiana at Milwaukee (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 119.145; Milwaukee 116.496
Dunkel Line & Total: Indiana by 2 1/2; 198
Vegas Line & Total: Milwaukee by 2 1/2; 192
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+2 1/2); Over

Game 515-516: Oklahoma City at Sacramento (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma City 121.969; Sacramento 116.486
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 5 1/2; 202
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 4; 209
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (-4); Under

NHL

Chicago at Phoenix
The Coyotes look to take advantage of a Chicago team that is 1-6 in its last 7 games as a favorite from -110 to -150. Phoenix is the pick (-105) according to Dunkel, which has the Coyotes favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-105)

Game 1-2: Los Angeles at Washington (12:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Los Angeles 11.885; Washington 12.243
Dunkel Line & Total: Washington by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Washington (-145); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-145); Under

Game 3-4: Ottawa at Edmonton (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ottawa 10.692; Edmonton 10.010
Dunkel Line & Total: Ottawa by 1/2; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Edmonton (-130); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Ottawa (+110); Over

Game 5-6: Toronto at Montreal (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Toronto 10.349; Montreal 11.296
Dunkel Line & Total: Montreal by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Montreal (-160); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Montreal (-160); Under

Game 7-8: Carolina at Tampa Bay (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 11.929; Tampa Bay 10.962
Dunkel Line & Total: Carolina by 1; 7
Vegas Line & Total: Tampa Bay (-160); 6
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (+140); Over

Game 9-10: Chicago at Phoenix (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 11.556; Phoenix 12.289
Dunkel Line & Total: Phoenix by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-115); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Phoenix (-105); Over

Game 11-12: Colorado at Nashville (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado 11.031; Nashville 10.344
Dunkel Line & Total: Colorado by 1/2; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Nashville (-165); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado (+145); Under

Game 13-14: St. Louis at Minnesota (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 11.804; Minnesota 10.649
Dunkel Line & Total: St. Louis by 1; 5
Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota (-130); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+110); Under

Game 15-16: Calgary at Vancouver (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 11.979; Vancouver 13.142
Dunkel Line & Total: Vancouver by 1; 6
Vegas Line & Total: Vancouver (-200); 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Vancouver (-200); Over

Marc Lawrence

Notre Dame at South Florida
Prediction: South Florida

No need to clean your glasses and no, we don’t mean the University of Florida. What you are seeing is correct. Yes, we realize that the 8th-ranked Irish trail just Pitt in the Big East standings while South Florida is ahead of only lowly DePaul. However, we’re also well aware that from an ATS standpoint Notre Dame has been playing to the level of their opposition all season long. Mike Brey’s bunch is just 2-6 ATS versus .714 or less foes this year as opposed to 7-2 ATS when they take on a greater than .714 opponent. The Irish are also in a delicate scheduling quandary as they’re off a Louisville revenger (1-4 ATS away after the Cardinals) with a West Virginia tourney KO grudge match on deck. This appears to be a perfect spot to run with the Bulls. Our powerful database agrees. The Tampa twelve are allowing just 66 PPG in the Sun Dome this season, are a profitable 4-2 SU and ATS in their last six roles as home dogs and are 7-3 ATS versus greater than .700 opposition this season. Bulls outright. We recommend a 1-unit play on South Florida.

Matt Fargo

Mississippi vs. Alabama
Play: Alabama -7

Alabama fought hard at Vanderbilt but came up just short in Nashville as it lost by four points to the Commodores. That was just the second SEC loss for the Crimson Tide and while that loss was a tough one, I do not expect any sort of letdown or hangover here. Alabama still has a game and a half lead in the SEC West so it needs a solid bounceback and no better place to do it than at home where it is a perfect 12-0 on the season. The Tide are 4-0 at home in the SEC, three of those wins coming by double-digits. Mississippi deserves credit for turning its season around as it started out 1-5 in the SEC but it has won its last three games including one on the road. While that is a solid turnaround, it needs to be mentioned that two of those games came against teams with losing conference records including LSU which is 2-7 in the SEC. The Rebels have performed well on the road with a 4-3 record but three of those victories came against LSU, SMU and Arkansas-Little Rock, not exactly murderer’s row. Alabama is all about defense and it was thoroughly embarrassed at Vanderbilt as it allowed 81 points in 51 percent shooting so we can expect an all out effort on the defensive side of the floor on Saturday. It is allowing only 50.6 ppg on 32.7 percent shooting at home and those averages are ranked third and first in the country respectively. The Tide also allows just 25 percent shooting from long range and that is good for seventh in the nation. Mississippi has been extremely tough on the road but as mentioned, the schedule has had a lot to do with that. Alabama meanwhile is a perfect 7-0 ATS in its last seven home games and it is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 home games after a loss by six points or less so it has bounced back very well from tough losses. The Rebels are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 trips to Tuscaloosa and they can chalk up another loss against an Alabama team that is going to be more than ready to bounce back strong. 3* Alabama Crimson Tide

BIG AL

Southern Miss @ Memphis
PICK: Southern Miss +2.5

The Tigers have won 15 straight in this series, but are just 6-7 ATS with two pushes. However, it must be noted that, until this season, the Tigers were favored by at least nine points in each of the previous games. Now, in the first meeting this season, Southern Miss was a 6-point favorite, yet Memphis still won 76-75. Let's take Southern Miss here, as Conference USA teams are 96-71 ATS on the road in the regular season when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the year. And, if our road team is off a straight-up win, then our 96-71 stat moves to 53-35 ATS since 1996, including a perfect 7-0 ATS if our road team’s win percentage is 750 or better. Take the Golden Eagles.

Jim Feist

Bobcats vs. Atlanta
Play: Atlanta -6½

Charlotte has cooled off after a nice run, recently losing 5 of 7 games. And this is a tough situational handicapping spot, playing their third game in four nights, plus the second of a back to back spot. The Bobcats are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games playing on 0 days rest. Atlanta, meanwhile, is rested and winners of 4 of the last 6 games. The Hawks are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 vs. Eastern Conference. Play the Hawks!

Ray Monohan

Dallas Mavericks vs. Houston Rockets
Play: Dallas Mavericks -1

I'm expecting a shootout in the Lone Star State Saturday night, as Houston always brings the offense and the Mavs have been hot of late. The Mavs are flat-out the better team, so we should assume that they can win this game considering that they’re playing at a high level right now. Before a one-point loss at Denver on Thursday night, Dallas had won 10 straight games. Trends I'm liking for this matchup include DAL are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games overall. Mavericks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win. Mavericks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games. HOU are 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13 home games. Rockets are 8-18 ATS in their last 26 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600. Rockets are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600. I see Saturday’s matchup as a back-and-forth battle that could come down to the final shot. Dallas will make the plays down the stretch for the cover.

Patrick Webb

Ohio State vs. Wisconsin
Play: Ohio State +1

I like Ohio State to stay undefeated and end the Badgers 16 game home winning streak. The Buckeyes are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 road games and it is rare to get a line under ten for the Buckeyes this season. OSU has also performed very well against the top of the Big Ten this season defeating Minnesota twice including a 12 point road win in their last game, beating Illinois by 5 on the road, and destroying Purdue by 23 on the road. Wisconsin is coming off a 3 point overtime escape at Iowa.

OSU is actually the more efficient defensive team this season at 99.3 to Wisconsin's 102.1 so far in the Big Ten. OSU is the better shooting team with a 43.8% (7.6 3s/g) 3 point percentage and a 56.4% eFG compared to Wisconsin's 37.3 (8.3 3s/g) and 51.2%. OSU has more scoring options and should own the paint with Jared Sullinger who is averaging a double- double with 18 ppg and 10.4 RB/g. OSU also has four solid options from 3 with the lowest percentage being David Lighty's 38%.

Finally OSU has a huge edge at getting to the foul line making 54 more free throws than their opponents have attempted. They are a bad FT% team but could get Leuer and Nankivil in foul trouble trying to defend Sullinger and the emerging Deshaun Thomas.

Brent Brooks | CBB Total

Louisville / Syracuse Over 138

Few teams in the country run at the frenetic pace that the Cardinals do. The heralded zone of Cuse might be enough to win in the final few minutes but their defense won't turn this into a game in the 60s. Both teams make it to the 70s here.

Ark.-Little Rock -3

This line caught my eye and I expect it to move against UALR by tip off. Bozeman and company are the superior team here and should easily cover this one. Grab it early.

Wichita St PK

Yes, its a rivalry game that the home team desperately needs. However, the loss of Lucas O'Rear for the season will be felt by the Panthers in this game more than any left on their schedule. The Shockers size and depth will win the day here despite the UNI faithful roaring against that outcome. Expect JT Durley to have a nice day on the post.

James Patrick Sports

Witchita State vs. Northern Iowa

The Shockers are the best rebounding team in the country and if you want to win basketball games, rebounds are the most important asset you could have on your side. Wichita State suffered a loss to the Black Cats earlier this season as well as in last season Missouri Valley Conference Tournament. Big Game James Patrick's Saturday complimentary selection in College Basketball is Wichita State Shockers and you can watch it live on ESPN2.

Joel Tyson

Syracuse at LOUISVILLE (-3)

Heading to the Big East for Saturday's complimentary play. Both Syracuse and Louisville come into today's action off losses on Wednesday night, but it is the Orange's loss at home to Georgetown that I feel is more troublesome at this point in the year.

Syracuse has now dropped 5 of its last 7 both straight up and against the spread, and this Louisville team is not the squad they want to be facing while trying to right their ship.

Louisville should be in a prickley mood after getting blasted by a 15-5 count in the overtime session of their Wednesday loss at Notre Dame. The fact the Redbirds are 15-2 straight up at home bodes well for the home win and cover this afternoon.

Louisville is on a dominating 6-game series winning streak, covering in the last five meetings. Overall the Cardinals are 7-1-2 ATS in their last nine battles with the Orangemen.

Looks to me like Pitino has Boeheim's number. Take the 'Ville.

3♦ LOUISVILLE

Chris Jordan

Notre Dame (-6) at SOUTH FLORIDA

As I told you on Wednesday night, I love the play of Ben Hansbrough, who has emerged as one of the best players in the Big East and comes in having led the Irish in scoring in seven straight games.

After his 25-point performance against Louisville, he's now averaging 19.8 points per game in Big East contests. It marked the second-straight game he scored 25, as he did the same last Sunday in a win over Rutgers.

His average ranks third in the conference.

Today he should have no trouble leading the Irish to a solid road win against one of the worst offenses in the 16-team league. South Florida's 63.2 points in Big East ranks 15th, while it's 69.2 points allowed ranks 11th in scoring defense.

Notre Dame has the fourth-best scoring margin (+3.3) in Big East play, while the Bulls are 15th with their -6.1 scoring margin.

The Irish, now 20-4 overall and 9-3 in Big East play, have won six in a row overall, including two on the highway - at Pittsburgh on Jan. 24 and at DePaul on Feb. 3.

This is the first of a three-game road trip for the Irish, who are on a 5-1 spread streak right now and has won the last four against the Bulls, who have lost five of six.

Lay the road chalk.

5♦ NOTRE DAME

Chuck O'Brien

North Carolina at CLEMSON (+1)

For your first of two complimentary college basketball selections on Saturday – which follows Friday’s free NBA winner on the TWolves-Pacers OVER the total – take Clemson over North Carolina.

Big letdown spot for the Tar Heels, who blew a 16-point lead at archrival Duke on Wednesday, losing 79-73 to end a five-game winning streak. Yes, the Heels cashed easily as a 10½-point underdog – their sixth straight ATS win – but I just don’t see this young team rebounding from such a devastating defeat, especially having to hit the road again.

Clemson has won four of its last five and 12 of its last 15, and if not for a pair of two-point road losses at Virginia and Maryland, the Tigers would be on a 14-1 run. True, Clemson’s worst defeat over the past two months came against North Carolina (75-65), but that was in Chapel Hill (where the Tigers are 0-55 all-time). Besides, Clemson was in the game down the stretch but failed to score over the final 4½ minutes.

The Tigers ended a 10-game losing skid to the Tar Heels with last year’s 83-64 home rout as a five-point favorite, and Clemson comes into this one 13-1 at home this season, cashing in four of the last five. Additionally, the Tigers have covered in five straight Saturday games and they’re 4-1-1 ATS in their last six after a non-cover. Finally, the host has covered five straight times in this rivalry.

Clemson avenges last month’s 10-point loss at Chapel Hill with a comfortable 7- to 10-point victory.

3♦ CLEMSON

Karl Garrett

Texas A&M (-6) at TEXAS TECH

Free play time this Saturday, and Texas A&M got a much-needed straight up win earlier this week in overtime at Colorado to snap a 3-game slide.

I expect Mark Turgeon's team to build off that win in Lubbock, as the Texas Tech Red Raiders cannot seem to get themselves on-track this season, and come into this home date having lost 6 of their last 9 games straight up.

Playing at home hasn't really helped the Raiders either, as they are on a 4-11 spread slide their last 15 lined home games.

The Aggies have covered in 5 of their 8 lined road games this year, and are 6-3 overall in games played away from Reed Arena.

The Aggies have also won and covered 5 of the last 6 in this Big 12 rivalry dating back to 2008, so I have no issue in laying the small road chalk today in this meeting.

Take A&M to follow up their dog outright win at Colorado with another road win and cover today.

2♦ TEXAS A&M

Karl Garrett

Oklahoma at MISSOURI (-13')

After taking it on the chin 103-86 at Kansas on Monday night, the G-Man expects the Missouri Tigers to do some pounding this Saturday afternoon at home against Oklahoma.

Mizzou is still undefeated at home at 14-0, and they have covered 6 of their 9 lined home dates this year.

The Sooners are just 12-11 this season, and likely NIT-bound, while the Tigers are thinking Big Dance all the way at 18-6 to date.

Missouri has won ALL 4 of their conference home games this year, and they have covered the last 3. The Tigers have also won 6 of the last 10 series meetings while covering in 8 of those 10.

Covering this impost should not be a problem for the host.

Lay the wood as Missouri flattens Oklahoma.

4♦ MISSOURI

Chuck O'Brien

Oklahoma at MISSOURI (-16)

For your second of two complimentary college basketball selections on Saturday – which follows Friday’s free NBA winner on the TWolves-Pacers OVER the total – take Missouri as a big favorite against Oklahoma.

First off, Missouri is going to take the court extremely angry today after getting humiliated at Kansas on Monday (103-86 loss as a 10½-point underdog). Secondly, this is a big payback game for the Tigers, who went to Norman on Jan. 16 and fell 66-61 as a 3½-point underdog. Now it’s the Sooners who have to travel, and that’s a big deal because Oklahoma is 1-6 on the highway this year while Missouri is 14-0 at home, including three straight blowout wins over Big 12 rivals Kansas State (75-59), Iowa State (87-54) and Colorado last Saturday (89-73).

Looking specifically at the latter victory, understand this: The Tigers – just like today against Oklahoma – were in revenge mode against Colorado after opening Big 12 play with a 13-point loss in Boulder. Including last week’s 16-point rout of the Buffaloes, Missouri is now outscoring visitors by 22.6 points per game and outshooting them 48.3% to 38.6%. By comparison, Oklahoma is getting outscored on the road by an average 9 ppg (77.3-66.3) while shooting 44.3% vs. 48.8% for the opponent.

The Tigers have cashed in seven of their last eight at home and they’re on a 5-0 SU and ATS roll when hosting the Sooners in Mizzou Arena. Also, despite last month’s result in Norman, Missouri has cashed in nine of the last 11 series clashes. Make it 10 of 12 spread-covers in this rivalry and eight of nine spread-covers at home for the Tigers, who send Oklahoma – which got punked by Texas at home on Wednesday (68-52) and whose starting guard and second-leading scorer (Cade Davis) is questionable with an ankle injury – to its second straight blowout loss.

3♦ MISSOURI

Bobby Maxwell

Ohio St. at WISCONSIN (-1')

For my comp selection, how insane is the Kohl Center going to be in Madison, Wisc. today? The nation’s only unbeaten college hoops team comes in with Ohio State and the whole state is still pumped up from Sunday’s Super Bowl win by the Packers. I have to go with the Badgers in this matchup as it’s just too much to ask of the Buckeyes to beat an entire state.

I know Wisconsin is just 1-19 when it faces a No. 1 team in the country. But this team just doesn’t lose at home, winning 16 straight at the Kohl and going 149-11 at home with coach Bo Ryan at the helm. The Badgers are 13-0 at home this season and they absolutely destroyed Michigan State there last time out, winning 82-56 as nine-point favorites. The closest anybody has come lately was Purdue’s seven-point loss back on Feb. 1, and Wisconsin is 7-2 ATS in front of the home fans.

The Badgers give up just 55.4 points per game at home and limit the opposition to 39.7 percent shooting. They shoot the ball better than 48 percent from the floor and if they get a lead late, their 83.9 percent free-throw shooting will certainly seal the deal.

Ohio State is just 2-5 ATS on the road as a ‘dog of up to 6 ½ points. On the opposite end, the Badgers are on ATS surges of 9-3 against winning teams, 5-1 at home, 5-0 after a non-cover and 5-2 as a home chalk of up to 6 ½-points.

Winning in Wisconsin is a tough task for anybody. Even tougher for a team with a bullseye on its back. I’ll go with the Badgers today. Play Wisconsin.

2♦ WISCONSIN

Chris Jordan

St. Mary's at SAN FRANCISCO (+9)

Not sure whether or not St. Mary's as secured its spot in the the dance just yet, but it's pretty damn close with the way it has opened up a 21-4 mark, including non-conference wins over St. John's (which has beaten West Virginia, Georgetown, Notre Dame, Duke and U Conn) and Mississippi State (which has beaten Auburn and Florida), not to mention a win at perennial West Coast Conference favorite Gonzaga.

On the other hand, the San Francisco Dons could certainly use a win against the Gaels, to not only throw the WCC regular season race wide open, but also enhance their own resume when the selection committee gets together next month for all the madness.

And since Gonzaga faces both USF and St. Mary’s in the coming weeks, an outright win for the Dons tonight opens the door for a potential three-way tie of the regular season title courtesy of splits amongst the trio.

Though San Francisco is 13-11 this season, it's a rock solid 14-6-1 ATS on the year, and comes in on a 19-7 spread streak in conference play and 23-7 overall dating back to last season.

Though the Gaels have won the last 10 meetings by an average margin of 16.5 points, the Dons have covered the last two, including a 14-point loss on the road on Jan. 13, when they caught +21' points.

Though St. Mary's is having one of its best seasons ever, two of its four losses have come in its last six games, while it's mired in a 1-5-1 ATS slide.

On the other hand, the Dons are in on additional ATS streaks of 4-0 at home and 7-1 when catching points at home.

Take the underdog in this one.

1♦ SAN FRANCISCO

Jeff Benton

Now onto Saturday’s college hoops freebie – and I’m on a 6-2 roll with comp plays after Friday’s easy 6♦ winner on the Miami Heat– as we’ll lay the chalk with Texas at home against Baylor.

Playing the percentages here, as Texas (15-4 ATS) has the second-best pointspread record in all of college basketball (trailing only George Mason’s 18-5 ATS mark), while Baylor ranks 293rd out of 307 Division I teams with a 5-11 ATS record.

Checking recent results, Baylor is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine games (including Wednesday’s 74-70 home win over Nebraska as a six-point favorite), and the Bears have failed to cover in five of their last seven roadies. Meanwhile, Texas is 9-0 SU and 8-1 ATS in Big 12 action (including Wednesday’s 68-52 rout of Oklahoma as a 10-point road chalk).

Even more impressive for the Longhorns: Each of their victories during their nine-game winning streak (all in conference) has been by at least 11 points, with an average victory margin of 18.1 ppg. The key to Texas’ success? Without a doubt, it’s been defense. Since an 82-81 overtime loss to UConn on Jan. 8, the ‘Horns have held their first nine Big 12 opponents to the following point totals: 52, 46, 60, 63, 46, 58, 49, 60 and 52. In their four conference home wins, they’re allowing just 56 ppg.

Finally, this is a quadruple revenge game for Texas, as Baylor has won and covered the last four meetings, including three wins last year (one at home, one on the road and one in the Big 12 tournament). Expect the Longhorns – who had won the previous 24 meetings in a row – to be very mindful of what the Bears did them last year, and they’ll ride their dominating defense to a 10th straight double-digit victory.

5♦ TEXAS LONGHORNS

SPORTS WAGERS

VANDERBILT –1 over Kentucky

These two are mirror images of one another in that they’re both 16-6 overall and 5-4 in the conference. They both have shooters and rebounders and frankly, there’s not a lot that separates them. The difference is that the Commodores are at home where they’re 13-1 while the Wildcats are just 3-5 on the road. Also note that Kentucky is much more popular with the betting public and if this game were in Kentucky the Wildcats would probably be about a 4-4½-point choice and Vandy should be the exact same price that Kentucky would be at home but they’re not, thus creating the underlay. The Wildcats have dropped three of its last four on the road with only win over that span coming against the last place Gamecocks. Big game but the home side offers up the true value. Play: Vanderbilt –1½ (Risking 2.06 units to win 2).

Syracuse +116 over LOUISVILLE

Which Syracuse team is going to show up today is anyone’s guess but one thing is certain and that is that the Orange are simply the better team and it might not be close. The Cardinals are having a great year and one beyond expectations but their bubble is starting to burst. It’s crunch time in the Big East and this time of year the cream usually rises to the top. Louisville is just 3-3 over its last six games with wins over West Virginia (by a point), UConn (in double OT by a point) and DePaul at home by just four. Those three narrow wins are a little disturbing when you consider that UVA can’t score, everyone is beating UConn these days and the Blue Demons are 0-11 in the conference. The Cardinals have played six very intense and close games in a row and that takes its toll. Now they’ll play a Syracuse team that’s superior to the last six teams that they’ve faced. The Orange has just two wins in their last six contests. However, they’ve had a difficult schedule and after a tough home loss to the Hoyas we expect to see the Orange come out completely amped up and ready to go. This is a team they can beat, as the Cardinals are not as good as their #15 ranking suggests. Play: Syracuse +116(Risking 2 units).

Jimmy Boyd

1 Unit on Villanova Wildcats -3

Beating Nova on its home court is no easy task. That task becomes even more difficult when taking the floor without a key player. That's what Pitt is up against this evening with star guard Ashton Gibbs sidelined. The Wildcats will be lacking no motivation here. They will be out to avenge an upset loss to Pitt last season, and an upset loss to Rutgers this week will add even more fuel to the fire. Nova is 13-1 at home this season, where it is holding its opponents to just 61.0 ppg. Home court is very important in this matchup considering the home squad has covered the number in 10 of the last 14 meetings. The Wildcats have played their best ball against the best teams they have faced. In fact, Villanova is an impressive 6-0 ATS versus top caliber teams that are outscoring their opponents by 12-plus points per game this season. The Wildcats are defeating these teams by an average score of 76.3 to 67.3. Looking back, Nova is an impressive 11-3 ATS in home games (15 or more games into the season) when playing against top level teams with winning percentages above 80% under coach Jay Wright. We'll lay the points with Nova tonight.

Matt Rivers

Pitt Panthers (+3) at Villanova.

Reasoning: Ashton Gibbs is out but I absolutely love what Jamie Dixon has done with this team and to get anything is enough for me in this spot. They were just able to win in a tough, tough place in Morgantown against a good West Virginia team and I can see them turning the trick once again here.

Villanova is a very good team that has an upside and the Wildcats should be ready to rumble after that unbelievable one point loss at the RAC the other night. If you somehow didn't see it, Jay Wright's squad blew a 10 point lead with a little over two minutes remaining against a bad Rutgers squad and at the end lost on a four point play with .8 seconds remaining. It was an absolutely gut wrenching defeat the likes of which don't happen all that often. I don't think though that 'Nova will just shrivel up after that loss and go in the tank as they are probably too good for that but they have had their share of recent struggles for sure and the Panthers are the superior team that just continues to chug along and win game after game. Villanova has been scuffling a little more than just that one game against the Scarlet Knights as evidenced by losing three of their past five games and four of seven. Could these kids be questioning themselves a little? Sure they can, there's no doubt about that.

19-5 is still 19-5 but things have not been all that hunky dory of late and even at home Villanova is going to have a lot of trouble today against an opponent that seems to stay in and grind out every single game. Dixon's squad is as mentally tough as they come and at 22-2 is no joke whatsoever. Even without Gibbs the Panthers are extremely potent led by Brad Wanamaker and Gary McGee among others and can and should win this game, period.

Pick: Pittsburgh