Info Plays
3* Oklahoma City Thunder -4.5
Reasons why Oklahoma City will cover:
1) Play against - home underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (Sacramento) - poor defensive team - allowing 99+ points/game on the season against opponent after allowing 105 points or more 2 straight games, as its 54-24 since 1996.
2) The Kings are just 7-18 ATS versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season, and only 1-10 ATS versus good foul drawing teams - attempting >=27 free throws/game this season.
3) Oklahoma City is 16-5 ATS off a home loss over the last 2 seasons.
Ben Burns
Carolina Hurricanes @ Tampa Bay Lightning
PICK: Tampa Bay Lightning
These teams have met twice so far this season. In each case, the home team won in fairly convincing fashion. When the teams played at Raleigh, the Hurricanes won by a score of 6-4. However, the previous meeting, which was here at Tampa, saw the Lightning earn a 5-1 victory. With this one also being played at Tampa, I expect the Lightning to have the advantage.
While the two earlier meetings both had O/U lines of 5.5, this one has climbed up to six. That's noteworthy as we find the Canes at 0-3 when playing a road game with an O/U line of six and the Lightning at a perfect 8-0 when playing at home with an O/U line of six.
The Lightning last played on 2/8, suffering a 7-4 loss vs. Buffalo. They're 3-1 (+1.9) when playing with three or more day's rest in between games though and they're also a profitable 14-7 (+5.6) after having allowed four or more goals in their previous game. I expect them to bounce back here. Consider "laying the wood" with Tampa.
MTI Sports
Knicks at Nets
Play: Over
The Nets are 10-0 OU (+14.2 ppg) as a dog with no rest after a game in which their field goal attempt per turnover ratio was at least eight and The Knicks are 6-0 OU (+17.1 ppg) on the road after a loss in which Danilo Gallinari shot worse than 33% from the field. Consider these two OVER.
Black Widow
1* on Pittsburgh +3
Getting points with Pittsburgh is an absolute gift Saturday as they take on an overmatched Villanova team. Pitt is one of the top teams in the country and they are proving it this season en route to a 22-2 start. The Wildcats clearly have issues, and that's evident with two recent losses to Big East bottom feeders in Rutgers and Providence. Villanova should not be favored Saturday because they simply are no match for the Panthers. Pitt is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) as a road underdog of 6 points or less or pick over the last 3 seasons. The Panthers are 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons. Take Pitt and the points.
Scott Rickenbach
Indiana @ Michigan
PICK: Under 130
We lost a star rated play in the Wolverines most recent game and it stung like crazy! We had the under in Michigan on Wednesday when the Wolverines were hosting the Wildcats of Northwestern. A very low-scoring first half just as we expected but then, all of the sudden, the 2nd half saw not one but BOTH teams get red hot from outside and it was “raining threes” in Michigan. Needless to say we haven’t forgotten this play as we got burned by the ridiculous second half. The Wolverines prior two games had seen them average just 59 points per game and Michigan has held each of their last three opponents to 65 points or less. As for the Hoosiers, each of their last three games (and four of their last five games) have stayed under the total. Indiana has been held to 41.5% or less from the field in five of their last six games. The Hoosiers have held four of their last five opponents to 42.4% or less from the field. Over the last three seasons, Michigan is 15-7 to the under when they are off of a win against a conference rival. Also, the Wolverines are on a long-term 23-15 run to the under in their games against teams with a losing record. With a much tougher game (at Illinois) on deck, look for the Wolverines to simply focus on grinding out a win here and they will be content to simply play solid defense, slow this game down, and grind out the home victory. Consider a small play on the UNDER the total in Michigan in Saturday afternoon NCAAB action!
Larry Ness
Seton Hall @ Rutgers
PICK: Seton Hall +3
Rutgers is a solid 10-3 at home while Seton Hall is just 4-10 overall since right before Christmas. However, the Pirates have not played since last Saturday and have had an entire week to prepare for their “revenge game” at Rutgers. The Scarlet Knights won at Seton Hall 66-60 back on Jan 22 and Seton Hall gets a big break here, catching Rutgers off its improbable 77-76 win over Villanova this past Wednesday. ‘Nova blew a 13-point lead with four minutes to go, letting go of a five-point lead with only 11 seconds left as well. Rutgers’ Jonathan Mitchell made a three-point shot with less than a second to go plus was fouled in the process. The result was a four-point play and a Rutgers win. Seton Hall had beaten Rutgers four straight times before losing at home in late January. The Pirates shot just 33.8 percent in that game, including a pathetic 6-of-27 on threes. Leading scorer Hazell (17.9) was bad (6-of-21, including 2-of-11 on threes) but not the only offender. The team’s two best frontcourt players, the 6-6 Robinson (12.8-6.8) and the 6-8 Pope (10.5-9.0) each made just 5-of-14 FG attempts. The 6-7 Mitchell (14.5-5.9) is Rutgers’ lone double digit scorer and with he and his teammates still likely to be on ‘cloud nine’ after the Villanova upset (also don’t forget that Rutgers played Notre Dame close all the way last Sunday!), I expect the Pirates to get that revenge win.
SEAN MURPHY
Wichita State @ Northern Iowa
PICK: Wichita State -1
Wichita State is coming off a 56-53 home loss against Southern Illinois as a 15.5-point favorite, but believe it or not, that shouldn't come as all that much of a surprise.
The Shockers have actually played their best basketball on the road this season. They're a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS on the road in conference play, but just 5-3 SU and 4-4 ATS at home.
Wichita State will be out to avenge a 77-74 home loss to Northern Iowa tonight. I like their chances against a Panthers squad that is reeling after back-to-back losses against Drake and Evansville. The Panthers have now dropped the cash in three consecutive games.
It's worth noting that Northern Iowa hasn't swept the regular season series against Wichita State since the 2007-08 season. I'm not convinced that this is the Panthers team to reverse that trend.
Northern Iowa is fortunate to own a 9-5 MVC record, with six of their wins coming by six points or less. The Panthers have been favored by at least seven points in all but one of their seven conference home games. The only time they've stepped up in class here at home, they fell 58-57 against Missouri State.
This is a big bounce-back spot for a Shockers team that is more than capable of going on the road and winning in a hostile environment. Northern Iowa isn't playing its best basketball, not by a longshot, and a recent injury to their glue-guy, forward Lucas O'Rear only compounds their problems. Take Wichita State.