ROB VINCILETTI
Gonzaga vs. SMU
Play: SMU -6
The Mustangs are 13-3 vs winning teams and 11-0 In Non conference games. SMU is off a stunning home loss here to Tulsa last out. Now they take on a Good but not great like previous years Gonzaga team. The Bulldogs are just 1-6 as a dog and have lost 5 of 7 vs top 100 RPI Scale teams. They are catching SMU at the wrong time. SMU has won 6 of 8 vs teams ranked 51 to 100 in the RPI Scale. SMU is 13-1 at home and Gonzaga has failed to cover 11 of the last 16 on the road. So we will stay at home with SMU.
SPORTS WAGERS
SOUTH CAROLINA +110 over Kentucky
We went after Kentucky earlier in the season in an almost identical situation, but the team we are getting here is a far better basketball team for the price we are paying. Staying with the motif of finding value on teams that thrive on their own home court, we get South Carolina, a team that is 21-3 on the season and a perfect 13-0 at home. South Carolina is no joke. The Gamecocks have polished off teams like Alabama and LSU at home with ease. Additionally, South Carolina traveled to College Station as a nine-point pooch and handed a defeat to Texas A8M. This is a vicious Gamecocks group that will not allow you to shoot well against them, as they are ranked 17th nationally in opponent field goal percentage. This statistic does not bode well for a Kentucky team that is already 2-5 on the road and boasts the 35th ranked field goal percentage on a national scale. Shooting efficiently and playing formidable defense has been the recipe for success for this young Wildcats team, but when their strategic advantage on offense is imperiled by a host that specializes in equalizing that advantage, we trust the edge lies with the hosts.
Nevertheless, the market sees it otherwise but that market always gives these basketball blue bloods their money and that’s something we often try to take advantage of. Even though South Carolina is currently the best team in the SEC in terms of wins and losses, you are still going to pay a premium price to back this popular visitor. Thing is, this Kentucky team does not shake a stick to the same juggernaut the college basketball world had encountered last season. If anything, USC on its own court this season is more like that team. Against the spread, the Gamecocks are 8-2 at home, proving the market keeps undervaluing them. And what were those two losses against the spread? Situations where, as a 19-point favorite South Carolina won by 18 against USF and the other one was against Missouri when South Carolina won by nine while spotting 14 to the Tigers. We have not seen South Carolina as a home dog yet this season and there is no reason they should be one here given their performance catalog. Gamecocks outright is the call.
SPORTS WAGERS
MINNESOTA -107 over Boston
OT included. The Bruins are coming off a couple of polarizing results, as they lost to the Kings 9-2 before going into Winnipeg and smashing the Jets 6-2. In that game against Los Angeles, the B’s allowed 57 shots against, which was the highest a Boston team had allowed in 40 years. Boston proclaimed afterwards that it was just “one of those games” in which their focus was off. The response game in Winnipeg looks pretty on paper but it’s not. The very first period they played after allowing 57 shots on net to the Kings, Boston was under siege in Winnipeg, allowing 18 first period shots. Luckily for the B’s, they scored three goals on 11 shots in that first frame and took a 3-2 lead into the intermission when in fact, they were lucky they were not on their way to another 9-2 loss. The Jets quit after that just like they have done so many other times this season. Prior to that pair of games, the Bruins defeated Buffalo twice in a row, both in OT and prior to that, Boston lost two straight to Toronto and Anaheim. We could easily be discussing a team on a six-game losing streak here. Boston’s past three victories have occurred against the Sabres (x2) and Jets. The Bruins have played the NHL’s easiest schedule, ranked 30th out of 30 teams and it looks like Pierre Bergeron will be forced to sit this one out. Bergeron is a huge loss, as everything the B's do pretty much run through him.
We often talk about “puck luck” because it’s a major contributor to the outcome of games. Last night for instance, Colorado spent the entire game in its own end and somehow managed to beat Detroit despite being outshot 45-21. That’s not an isolated incident either, as there are games like that almost every single night. That has our attention focused on PDO (save percentage + shooting percentage), a metric that is the most luck-driven stat in all of sports and Minnesota has been bitten by it. Minnesota is ranked middle of the pack in PDO this season but over their past dozen games their PDO ranks third last in the NHL and when that changes, so will their results. The Wild have lost seven in a row and 12 of their past 13 games. Minnesota’s last three games have been against Washington, Dallas and St. Louis and they outshot all three by counts of 36-33, 40-30 and 39-24 respectively. Against the Islanders, Minnesota outshot them 43-38 and lost 5-3. The Wild also outshot Arizona, 35-24 and lost 2-1. Minnesota is creating a ton of chances and losing. When they score three goals, the other team scores four and when they only allow two, they are only scoring one. They now catch a Boston team that is extremely beatable in every way. Minnesota has played a string of very difficult opponents and has not looked a bit out of place in any of them. The Wild are hungry like a pack of wolves and we’re very confident that the step down in class here will allow them to snap their ugly funk.
BIG AL
Brigham Young vs. Santa Clara
Pick: Santa Clara
The Cougars crushed Santa Clara, 97-61, in the first meeting. But I look for the Broncos to get revenge on this Saturday afternoon. Indeed, since 1990, NCAA home dogs of +7 or more points, off a win, and playing with revenge from a 25-point, or worse, defeat, are 58-35 ATS (and 46-22 ATS if their opponent is also off a win).
Larry Ness
Texas vs. Iowa St.
Pick: Iowa St.
No. 14 Iowa St and No. 24 Texas are both off tough loses. Iowa State blew a NINE-point lead in the second half of Wednesday's 85-82 overtime loss at Texas Tech and Texas lost 63-60 Monday night at No.3 Oklahoma, a game the Sooners won with a last-second three-pointer from Buddy Hield. Texas beat Iowa State 94-91 in OT back on Jan 12 with Isaiah Taylor scoring five of his 28 points in overtime to help the Longhorns snap a four-game losing streak in the series. Despite the extra five minutes, Texas had five turnovers, its fewest since the 2010 NCAA Tournament. "We didn't finish," Cyclones coach Steve Prohm said. "We just didn't finish in crucial times."
However, Iowa St bounced back from the loss to Texas to win four in a row. That stretch included wins over Oklahoma (then No. 1) and current No. 6 Kansas but the Texas Tech loss makes it THREE losses in the last four for the Cyclones (17-7, 6-5). Prohm has lifted the suspension of Jameel McKay, who has missed the last two games for a violation of team rules. The 6-foot-9 McKay is Iowa State's best interior defender and is third in the Big 12 with 9.0 rebounds per game and averages 12.4 points. Getting back to Texas (16-8, 7-4 ), it is among four teams in a second-place logjam just one game out of first heading into Saturday night's big road matchup at Iowa State.
"Havoc" is finally taking hold at Texas, where first-year coach Shaka Smart and the Longhorns have shaken off a slow start to join the hunt for the Big 12 title. “We know we're going to have a great chance of winning" the league, guard Kendall Yancy said. "It just keeps growing and growing, our belief in each other." It certainly didn't start that way when Texas was 3-3 and Smart described the Longhorns as a mentally fragile bunch. The Longhorns have clearly shaken off that label in a league long known for its physical play and where intimidation is part of the game.
Texas still miss the 6-9 Ridley (12.7-10.0), as the 6-9 Lammert (6.6-5.6) and the 6-10 Ibeh (4.0-5.1) are both modest frontcourt producers. The backcourt though, is deep and productive. Taylor (15.4), Felix (10.8) and Yancey start (3.1), with Davis (7.5) and Roach (7.0) adding sparks off the bench. The Texas “D” allows just 66.4 PPG (55th) on 39.6 percent shooting (29th). That defense will be tested against an Iowa St team averaging 82.2 PPG (18th) on 50.0 percent shooting (6th). The Cyclones lost Naz Long (12.0) for the season but Marquette transfer (9.5-3.4) has been eligible since Dec 19 and has been a nice fill-in. In fact, the 6-4 swingman started in the two games McKay was suspended and delivered 31 points.
The 6-8 Niang (19.0-6.4) is second in the Big 12 in scoring to Hield, while PG Morris (14.8-3.9-7.2) leads the Big 12 in assists. Throw in the 6-6 Nader (12.6-5.2) and guard Thomas (10.2-5.1) and this Iowa St team has potential to “go deep” in the NCAA tourney. The Cyclones are returning to Hilton Coliseum for the first time since losing to West Virginia on Feb 2 and they haven't lost back-to-back home games since 2011. Iowa St has won four straight over the Longhorns in Ames and owns a record of 72-7 SU at home the last four-plus seasons. Lay it!
Jesse Schule
Texas vs. Iowa St.
Pick: Texas
Texas has been one of the hottest teams in the BIG12 in 2016, and the Longhorns are only a game out of first place. They've won four of their last five overall, with the lone loss coming by just three points at Oklahoma. It has taken some time for this team to adapt to first year head coach Shaka Smart, but they really look like a contender heading into March.
Texas will be an underdog on the road at Iowa State Saturday, and the Cyclones have dropped three of their last four. These teams have a history of playing tight games, as three of the last four meetings were decided by three points or less. The Cyclones lost in overtime at Texas (94-91) earlier in the season. They may want revenge here in the rematch, but they are just 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight at home. Texas has covered the spread in seven straight overall, and four straight on the road.
Harry Bondi
WESTERN KENTUCKY (+1) over Marshall
Another FREE WINNER last night runs our record to 3-0 the last three nights! Monster revenge here for the Hilltoppers and that is when this team has been at its best. Marshall laid down a 94-76 thumping of Western Kentucky in January and that puts us in a nice situation here sine the Hilltoppers are 10-4 ATS the last 14 times they played a team that beat them earlier in the season by double digits. In that loss, Western Kentucky committed 20 turnovers, leading to 39 Marshall points and we don't see that happening here today on a home court the Hilltoppers have been very good on this year, handing UAB its lone league defeat, while winning the last seven meetings of this series on this floor. Take the home revenge dog!
Dr. Bob
Opinions
James Madison at NC Wilmington Over 143 or less
East Carolina at Cincinnati Over 136 or less
Fairfield at Quinnipiac Over 149 or less
John Fisher
Wisconsin at Maryland
Play: Maryland -9
Wisconsin lost to Maryland on a last second buzzer beater by Melo Trimble at their place. So why is spread 9 points just a month later when the Badgers are playing their best basketball after winning 6 in a row? Maryland will blow out Wiscomsin in their venue. They have not lost a conference game to a Big 10 opponent and it won't start here. Maryland will come out and jump on Wisonsin and finally put a team away. They beat Purdue by 11 and Iowa by 6 Wisconsin they win by 12...79-67
Bruce Marshall
St. Bonaventure -2
With erratic GW licking its wounds after its 88-64 home pounding by Saint Joseph's on Wednesday, interested in laying small number with Bona, which has won 8 of its last 9 at the cozy Reilly Center (5,480 capacity). The Bonnies' super-steady 6-7 sr. F Dion Wright has collected a league-high 11 double-doubles. The Colonials, who attempted only seven FTs vs. the Hawks, will have trouble narrowing an anticipated late-game deficit vs. SBU, which nails a nation-leading 78.2% from the foul line. For sure, the proud Bonnies haven't forgotten LY's 69-46 pummeling in Washington, D.C.
Sleepyj
Georgia Tech / Clemson Under 138.5
I'm on the under this one today..I had this line at 133.5...So grabbing 5 points off the number here looks good to me...Clemson offense at times can be bogged down and I believe this is the game they struggle to get it going even at home...Tiger defense is very good and they can hold GT near 60 points I think...This will be a hard fought game and if the shooting % from the outside struggles, this game will stay under...Getting points in the paint will be rather tough today...GT defense on paper looks to be average, but I believe they are good enough to limit Clemson here..I think this one is played in the high 120's low 130's...138.5 is just a bit high here for me..We roll with the under.
SPORTS WAGERS
DALLAS -102 over Washington
OT included. The Stars have been on a nice little run by winning five of their last six including a 4-2 victory over the Blackhawks. Dallas actually jumped out to a 4-0 lead over Chicago with Patrick Eaves getting a hat trick in the first period. Kari Lehtonen has been a little better lately too, stopping the last 81 of the 86 shots he's faced. This one really isn't about the Stars though as much as it is fading the Caps in a tough spot.
The Capitals don't need much of an introduction. The Caps are on a five-game winning streak and they are the fastest team to reach 40 wins in league history. They’re in first place in the league and have the top goal scorer with Alex Ovechkin. This team is coached by Barry Trotz and while it's taken some time, Washington has adapted to his gruff and they’re absolutely buying what Trotz preaches. Braden Holtby is having his best season and there's been a lot of talk this week about him starting for Team Canada in the World Cup of Hockey this fall. Holtby is 7-0-1 in his last eight and leads the league with 35 wins but he might fight it here psychologically. You see, Holtby has never beaten the Stars and has a 3.91 GAA average against them with a .857 save percentage. This is their final stop of a little western roadie that saw the Caps win games in Nashville and Minnesota this week.
While Washington might be the best team in the league we've seen some cracks this week. Sometimes the line dictates the play. For some, seeing the league leaders in an underdog roll might look like a great bet (Dallas opened as a -111 favorite) We smell a rat. The Caps came out strong in their last two games but had to hang on for victory. If they are slow out of the gate tonight the Stars could leave them to eat their dust on their way to the winners circle. The line suggests that’s exactly what might occur.
Winnipeg -102 over EDMONTON
OT included. The Jets probably deserved a better fate their last time out but in this league a good effort for half a game doesn't count for much unless you can mark a W on the score sheet. Winnipeg played a strong first period against a Bruins team looking to rebound after a 9-2 drubbing their last time out. The Jets outshot Boston 18-11 in the first period but found themselves down 3-2 after one. There was a time in this game the Jets were actually out-shooting the Bruins 30-12 before they went 17 minutes without a SOG and gave up three unanswered goals to fall 6-2. This Jets squad has a pretty nice collection of young players mixed with some guys in their prime. They also have some really strong pieces on the blue line. The Jets looked like they may have made it over the hump with a playoff appearance last season but they've been lacking the one tool, goaltending, that made a run possible last season. Rookie Connor Hellebuyck started strong but has really struggled in his last few starts. Winnipeg has given up 19 goals in their last five games. Ondrej Pavelec returns to the net tonight for the first time since November when he went down with a knee injury. Pavy is no Patty Roy but he should give a boost to a team that's looking for some consistency in net. The Jets have an outside shot of making the playoffs and this four-game road trip that begins here will decide whether they’re buyers or sellers at the trade deadline. All focus is here and we have to trust they’ll be a little extra jacked up to face this Western Canadian foe.
Edmonton has been a different team since their savior Connor McDavid returned to the lineup. The kid has provided a major spark and lit a fire under line-mate Jordan Eberle, who might be the happiest guy in the league right now. McDavid is coming off a five-point night while Eberle scored his first hat trick in the NHL, as the Oilers took down what's left of the Leafs, 5-2. When McDavid takes the ice it's easy to forget this is a last place team unless you watch them play. Defensively the Oilers are still a mess. They give up too many chances off turnovers and they spend more than their fair share of time in the penalty box. Oilers defensemen Darnell Nurse should be playing on a pond in Yellowknife while the others aren’t much better. Cam Talbot faced 14 shots on the PK alone against the Leafs on Thursday. A makeshift Toronto lineup missing JVR, Tyler Bosak, Joffrey Lupul, Nazem Kadri, and Shawn Mattias among others fired away 35 shots on the Oilers. We cannot overstate enough how horrific that is for the Oilers defense.
McDavid is a special talent that makes the Oilers highlight reel a must watch but he can't do it all by himself. As long as Edmonton gives up chances, the opposition will make them pay. The Jets have lost six of their last nine games but all those defeats came at home. They've actually gone 3-0 in their last three road contests, which suggests they are more comfortable when traveling. The biggest endorsement for the Jets however comes from the oddsmakers, who have made this game a pick-em despite the fact that the Jets are losing a lot more games than they’re winning and that Edmonton is attracting a big following with McDavid in the lineup. We never ignore what the oddsmakers are telling us.
Anaheim +125 over CHICAGO
OT included. As long as the books keep throwing prices at us with the Ducks, we are not backing off. Anaheim is coming off a 4-3 OT loss to Columbus but we’ll give them a mulligan for that game because they had this one on deck. The Ducks are still on a major roll with points in 17 of their past 21 games. Come playoff time, these Ducks are going to be extremely difficult to dispose of because they do so many things well and they roll out four lines that all can create havoc in the offensive end. The Ducks have an opportunity to send a subtle message to the Blackhawks here and plant a tiny seed of doubt. What we know for sure is that Anaheim is very capable of defeating any team in this league over a seven game series or in just one game like this one. They have already played the Blackhawks twice this year and lost both games so this one takes on a bit more meaning. Chicago has allowed four goals or more in four of its past seven games so the Ducks figure to get their opportunities here.
Chicago is coming off back-to-back home losses to Dallas and San Jose so it may seem a bit unreasonable for them to lose three in a row at the Madhouse on Madison Street but that’s a topic of discussion that does not interest us. We’re all about playing value and right now the Ducks are playing as good as or better than any team in the game. Chicago is always a dangerous foe but they are just 4-5 over their past nine games. Chicago is making the playoffs for sure. They put themselves into that position with a solid record up to this point so there is no urgency for them to step on the gas. They know better than anyone what it takes to make a run at the Cup and they are not going to burn themselves out to move up a couple of spots in the standings. We’re not suggesting that the Blackhawks are going through the motions or backing off but we are suggesting that the Ducks are hungrier and have something to prove to themselves after dropping their first two games of the year to Chicago. This is the final meeting of the season between the two and we’re suggesting the Ducks will leave nothing on the table.
Wunderdog
Boston vs. Minnesota
Pick: Minnesota -111
Boston is short on defensive depth, allowing 24 goals the last six games. This is the second of a six-game road trip and the Bruins are 8-20 against the Western Conference. Boston has gone three for thirty-five on the power play in the last 12 contests. Minnesota is 14-9-4 at home, hungry for a win, still a strong defensive club, #11 in goals allowed. The Bruins are 5-12 in the last 17 meetings, so jump on the hungry home team playing its third straight home contest and play Minnesota.
Scott Rickenbach
Loyola Marymount at St. Mary's
Pick: St. Mary's
I don't normally lay big numbers on games but this opportunity on St Mary's is simply too strong to ignore. The Gaels are off of their first home loss of the season as Pepperdine "got 'em" on Thursday. St Mary's is now 15-1 on their home floor this season and will pound a Loyola Marymount team off of a rare win. Loyola Marymount is off of a rare road win and cover but they visited the worst team in the conference, Pacific, to earn that victory Thursday. Loyola Marymount had previously failed to cover 6 straight games and they are 1-6 ATS this season when playing with one day or less of rest. The Gaels are 6-2 ATS this season when playing with one day or less of rest. Also, St Mary's is 9-4 ATS in home games this season. The Gaels are known for fantastic defense and they will "pour it on" here in a rout while the weak defense of Loyola Marymount is exploited early and often.
Dr. Bob
Opinion - William & Mary (-2½) over TOWSON
William & Mary is coming off a home loss to Hofstra but the Tribe are 20-3 ATS after a loss the last 3 seasons, including 4-0 ATS this season. My ratings favor William & Mary by 2 points if Towson G Byron Hawkins plays and by 3½ points if he doesn’t play. The line has come down and I’ll lean with William & Mary at -3 points or less.