Dave Price
1 Unit on Indiana +17.5
Wisconsin will be motivated to avenge its loss to Illinois, but the Hoosiers will be motivated too as they look to snap a 5-game losing streak. Right away we find the odds in our favor as plays on road underdogs of 10 or more points off a home loss by 10 points or more, in Saturday games, are 113-66 ATS the last 5 seasons. Also, coach Crean's teams are on a 12-3 ATS run off an embarrassing home loss where they scored less than 60 points. Crean is a great coach and he should have the Hoosiers well enough prepared to keep this one within the number.
Wunderdog
LSU vs. Vanderbilt
Play: LSU +16
The Commodores are out to a 7-2 start in SEC play and are looking like a championship-caliber team, but not so fast. Their last three out of four games have been less than stellar performances with a pair of losses and a 3-point win. They are off a huge emotional game vs. Tennessee who they beat handily. Now with lowly LSU coming in, it’s time for a breather. The Tigers are in off a pair of stinkers where they were blown out playing their worst two games of the season, causing a spike in the line, so I would expect a much better effort here. Four of the SEC losses have come by 10 points or less, so the last two aren't the norm, but have boosted the number here. The Commodores are not playing up to their level against lousy teams at just 3-7 ATS vs. .400 teams or worse. The numbers say LSU here
EZWINNERS
Wisconsin Badgers -17
The Badgers are coming off of a rare home loss in their last game against Illinois, but I expect them to bounce back in a big way here against the Hoosiers. Wisconsin had only lost two other home games under head coach Bo Ryan and they bounced back with blowout wins after those losses. The Hoosiers are only 2-6 against the spread in their last eight road games and Indiana is only 2-5 against the spread in their last seven trips to Madison. Lay the points.
O.C. Dooley
LSU / Vanderbilt UNDER 136.5
One would have thought this posted total would be higher considering that Vanderbilt won a 90-71 shootout earlier this week against Tennessee. In that contest the Commodores as a team shot 47% from the field and hit a blistering 86% from the free-throw line. One of the main reasons why this total is not higher has to do with a major rash of INJURIES affecting a horrible LSU squad that is 0-10 so far in league play. One of the Tiger guards Bo Spencer (15 ppg) suffered a sprained ankle back on Wednesday while another offensive threat Storm Warren (12 ppg) is struggling with a hamstring problem. To make a long story short there is a strong chance that Louisiana State will have to start a WALK-ON player at one of the guard positions. According to LSU head coach Trent Johnson his team is physically beat up and tired. According to his head coach LSU star big man Tasmin Mitchell has quote “hit the wall” and could use a mental break. For Mitchell to be ailing is rather large considering that he is just 119 points shy of reaching the “2,000” point plateau. To put this pick in proper perspective the beat up Tigers are going to have a FULL WEEK off following this contest so I expect their offense to actually show up seven days from now. But the bottom line is that LSU for the entire season to date is 11-4 UNDER the total when facing a “winning” opponent where the offense has averaged only 59 points per game. Continuing from the database here is a 77-PERCENT SYSTEM (37-11 past five years 15+ games into the campaign) which takes excellent offensive home teams like Vanderbilt who average at least 76 points per game and are facing an “average” defensive opponent (67-74 ppg allowed) UNDER the total, after leading the previous game by at least 15 points at the half. I mentioned earlier in this analysis that Vanderbilt tore it up from the free throw line (86%) in an early week victory. That is large because my research indicates that Vanderbilt is an incredible 10-1 UNDER the past two years after a game where they hit at least 78% from the charity stripe!
Brian Graves
Richmond vs. St Bonaventure
Pick: Richmond -3.5
The Spiders are right there in the A-10 race and the reason is they are a pretty darn good road team. They've already beaten Florida and Rhode Island on the road this year and they are 4-1 in the conference away from home. St Bonnies has only won 2 conference home games and those were against the bottom feeding Fordham Rams and St. Joe's Hawks. Gonzalez and Anderson will shread the Bonny D and Richmond will win easily 72-60!
Jimmy Thompson
Denver vs. North Texas
Pick: N. Texas -5
Denver is 7-0 at home and 0-6 on the road in the Sun Belt. They may well be be the worst well over .500 team in the country on the road. Rarely are they even competitive in these road games so need we say more. North Texas continues the Denver road woes with a 76-65 win!
Jimmy Moore
Washington @ St. Louis
Pick: OVER 6 -125
The Capitals have gone over in their last 5 games in a row and that trend shows no sign of stopping. They are by far the highest scoring team in the league and their defense is average at best. St. Louis has gone over in 3 of their last 4 games and they will likely be tired playing on Friday night, not good for the defense against Washington.
Denver Money
1* Carolina Hurricanes -105
New Jersey Devils continue to struggle and face a new team in Carolina this evening. Devils are 0-5 in their last 5 road games while Carolina is 5-0 in their last 5 home games. New Jersey as a road favorite have gone 1-5 in their last 6 games and Hurricanes have gone 4-0 in their last 4 as a home dog. Carolina who is playing some of the best hockey for them this season will look for Jussi Jokinen and new captain Eric Staal to continue to lead the team as the Canes are now only 10 points away from the 8th playoff spot in the Eastern conference.Carolina will also be looking to win their 5th straight game. New Jersey is 1-5 in the last 6 meetings in Carolina.
Sac Lawson
N. Texas +5 vs Denver
It's no secret that Denver is one of the better home teams in this conference, and it's also no secret that they are one of the worst road teams. There is a reason for this.. It's not their mentality, the coaching, or their fan support; they are 10x better at home because of their style of play. This Denver team is one of the worst defensive teams I've seen all year. They don't get out on shooters, they don't move their feet to get in front of penetrating guards, and as a result they end up fouling at an extremely alarming rate. At home they are able to depend on aesthetic familiarity to make shots, and play what is actually a very efficient offense, but on the road they simply give up too many easy buckets and allow too many points from the line to keep the crowd out of it. It's a given that they won't shoot as good on the road as at home, but good teams combat that by playing defense when their shots aren't falling; Denver simply does not do that.
As for North Texas, one of their biggest strengths is getting to the free throw line. They are a top 10 team in the nation when it comes to free throw attempts, and it's not because they have big men that get hacked in the paint, it's because their decent sized guards constantly attack the basket. Honestly, with the style of offense that North Texas plays, Denver will have one hell of a time staying out of foul trouble and one hell of a time stopping North Texas all together.
North Texas is riding a solid three game streak right now, they are playing good basketball right now, and still definitely in league contention. This is a huge game for them when it comes to making a run at the league title; they simply have to hold home court against this terrible traveling Denver club. Expect them to get tons of easy buckets tonight, and seal the deal by getting to the line for 20-30 attempts.