Marc Lawrence
Kansas St. vs. Baylor
Pick: Baylor
In mid-January, we were on the Longhorns (-5) when they battled Kansas State down to the wire, then a dramatic bomb from downtown at the buzzer gave Texas the win and denied the Wildcats (and us) a shot at overtime win. So last Saturday, when K-State welcomed the Horns for the return trip to Manhattan, we jumped on the Cats and they rewarded us with a 17-point win… see how this revenge thing works? Well, KSU beat Baylor both times last season, and the Bears enter this tilt off a string of revengers with West Virginia, Texas and Kansas – so there’s absolutely no way we would be wearing the purple and silver here. Instead, we follow the direction of our trusty database which notes that favorites with last season double revenge-exact against KSU are 5-1 ATS. As a result, we’ll look for the Wildcats to fall into this ‘Bear Trap’: Baylor is 20-5 ATS at home off a previous home loss when facing .720 or less conference opponents since 2000. You might be concerned about the Bears’ 1-7 SU record in their last eight games, but we would respond that Baylor is still a good team. They were ranked in the Top 10 earlier this season and were 13-2 at one point – besides, that skid included a pair of 2-point losses and a win against Oklahoma State. The Clincher: the Wildcats are 2-20-2 ATS in their last 24 SU losses as dogs in games versus opponents with revenge. We recommend a 1-unit play on Baylor.
Larry Ness
Louisiana State at Arkansas
Prediction: Arkansas
Both Arkansas (15-9 / 4-7 in SEC) and LSU (15-8 / 6-5) will need a hot spurt to earn NCAA Tournament consideration. The two schools meet Saturday in Fayetteville. The Tigers posted an 88-74 home victory over the Razorbacks earlier this month (Feb 1) when big men Johnny O?Bryant III (15.6-7.3) and Jordan Mickey (13.7-7.5) dominated play. O'Bryant, a 6-9 junior had 23 & 9 while 6-8 freshman Mickey added 22 & 11. LSU really goes only six-deep, with 6-9 freshman Martin (9.5-4.3) joining O'Bryant and Mickey upfront while guards Stringer (11.9-3.1 APG) and Hickey (9.0-3.6 APG) plus 6-5 SF Coleman (8.9-4.2) rounding out the main contributors.
Arkansas owns a much deeper team, with a pair of 6-6 players, guard Qualls (11.4-4.6) and forward Harris (9.2-3.2), both coming off the bench. Neither played in the loss at Baton Rogue (both were suspended one game for disciplinary reasons) and Harris in particular re-emerged with 16 points in the team's recent one-point loss to Missouri to score in double digits for the first time since Jan 14. Harris started the season strong by averaging 15.8 points over the first six games before his production sharply declined.
The team's top-two scorers are 6-10 freshman Portis (13.2-6.6) and junior guard Madden (12.9). Gulley (4.5) and Wade (3.3) are currently joining Madden in the starting backcourt with the 6-7 Clarke (8.8-5.5) starting with Portis up front. Bell (6.0) is a reserve guard and 6-10 freshman Kingsley (4.4-3.6) plays some at center.
Arkansas is known for its pressure D and has won the turnover battle in 23 of 24 games this season. LSU turned the ball over 14 times in its win over Arkansas at home and figures to "cough it up" more here at Bud Walton Arena. LSU is allowing 81.9 PPG in true road games this year, which hardly bodes well vs Arkansas, which averages 86.2 PPG at home, going 12-2 SU. Lay the small number.
Bruce Marshall
Air Force at San Diego State
Pick: Air Force
Sure, SDSU is in an angry mood after losing for the first time since mid-November when dropping a 6-point verdict at Wyo on Tuesday night. But the Aztecs have not had it easy recently vs. the Force, which covered its third straight vs. Steve Fisher in a competitive 79-72 loss at the Academy on Jan. 12. The Falcs have regained the services of top scorer G Tre' Coggins (16.8 ppg; scored 19 in return game vs. CSU on Feb. 8 before an uncharacteristic 1-for-12 FG stinker in midweek win at San Jose). SDSU is only 2-3 vs. line against MW foes at Viejas Arena this term, so could get interested in AFA if spread floats into the mid-to-high teens, as expected.
Charlie Scott
Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State
Play: Oklahoma +2.5
Bet this game early as I have a feeling the public will be on OK also. OKST has been struggling lately and now are in game #2 of their best player (Smart) being suspended. While OK comes off a Straight up loss to Texas Tech at Home probably looking ahead to Todays game. Better Team with the better Coach + better players getting points.
Chase Diamond
Pittsburgh vs. North Carolina
Play: North Carolina -3½
This game features the 20-5 Pitt at the 16-7 North Carolina. Pitt lost a huge game for us the other night as Syracuse hit a bullshit 3 from deep crushing our big 20* play. Carolina is red hot winning 5 in a row and off a extended rest due to their game with Duke being cancelled. Pitt is 0-5 ats in there last 5 and this is a prime let down spot for Pitt. Were going with the public and backing North Carolina minus the small number here.
Tony George
Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma St
Play: Oklahoma +2.5
The wrong team favored in this one Saturday which tips at 2 EST in Stillwater. I have this line power rated at OU -3 and Oddsmakers favored Okie State who is in a 5 game free fall from atop the rankings of the Big 12. That is a 5.5 point overlay against the number based on my power ratings weighed against the Las Vegas Line.
The Cowboys took a 12 point defeat away from Norman last month with a better team in place. With Marcus Smart sitting out, and his 18 points of production due to a suspension, Okie States chemistry is worse than it was before, which is not saying much. Poor defense has led to 5 straight losses for the Cowboys, and giving up 82 ppg in the process is not good news without one of your leading scorers, even at home.
Oklahoma has been playing some great ball, and with a loss to a red hot Texas Tech team this week, Oddsmakers have over adjusted this line. OU has covered 4 straight in this series, and while life on the road in conference action is always a tricky bet, OU would love nothing more than to kick their hated in state rival while they are down, and in my opinion get it done for a season sweep today and protect their 25th ranking in the polls.
Alex Smart
Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State
Play: Oklahoma State -2
Oklahoma State Cowboys lost their super star Marcus Smart this week after his frustrations bubbled over, and he exploded on a taunting Texas Tech fan. The Cowboys were not playing well at the time, and I think the pressure of the situation probably got the best of the future first round pick.
With Travis Ford's team currently on a horrendous four-game losing streak, they now must try to muster up some kind of emotion that can help them stay in the hunt for a tournament appearance, something that seems to be dwindling very quickly.
Oklahoma State has lost four straight and five of its last six games, and owns a below .500 record of 4-6 in the Big 12 conference action.
The Cowboys were slumping with Smart in the lineup , and will find it very hard for them to suddenly be more competitive with him gone. Now it just depends on how much the lines-makers and public over react to his absence and whether there will be any value on backing a wounded Boyz side with their proverbial backs against the wall.
With that said, keep a close eye on the Oklahoma State Cowboys betting lines, and whether or not they are justified considering the circumstances and the matchups . Try to keep the media hype out of the handicapping equation and there could be value to be had.
Im betting we have some value today in this particular spot against a hated rival!
Doug Upstone
VCU vs. St. Louis
Play: VCU +5
On Saturday, Play On road teams like VCU as an underdog or pick, in a contest involving two average three point shooting teams (32%-36.5%) 15 or more games into the season, after making 13 or more three-point shots in their last outing. This college basketball free play has proven to be extremely profitable at 34-7 ATS the past five years (82.9%), including 7-1 this season.
SPORTS WAGERS
GEORGIA -3 over Mississippi
Ole Miss and Georgia are tied in the SEC at 7-4 but the similarities between these two ends there. The Rebels 7-4 Conference record and 16-8 overall record is one of the nation’s most misleading marks. The Rebels do not have a notable win on their résumé all season. We’re not even sure which victory can be considered their best because there isn’t one. Perhaps their OT victory over LSU back on January 15 but that one is not going to get them an invitation to anything. The Rebels are not physically imposing in any way. They can easily get outmuscled on the boards and they will get badly outrebounded by the Bulldogs. Ole Miss has dropped three straight conference games on the road, losing to Kentucky by 16 to Tennessee by 16 and most recently to Alabama by three. This game in Georgia will be the Rebels second straight on the road and third road game in its last four contests. What makes fading these imposters even more appealing is that the Rebels have their two most important games of the season on deck, both at home, Tuesday and next Saturday against #14 Kentucky and #3 Florida. That puts the Rebels in line to get whacked here.
The Bulldogs 13-10 record has them undervalued in this spot. Georgia is not an SEC power by any stretch but they have reeled off three in a row over LSU, Texas A&M and Mississippi State and all three victories were by double digits. The Bulldogs are done playing the best teams in the conference and so their only goal now is to get the best possible seeding for the SEC tournament because they are going to have to win that to get into the big tournament in March. Overtaking the Rebels in the standing is the first step and Georgia can do that with a win here. The Bulldogs are not only in better form and superior to the Rebels, they are 11-2 at home and they’re in a hugely favorable spot to bury this garbage visitor. By the time a lot of you read this, this number will likely be higher at -3½ but don't let that deter you.
KENTUCKY -2 over Florida
The Gators 16-game win streak has opened up plenty of eyes but let’s call it what it is. That run started with an impressive victory over Kansas and a subsequent victory over Memphis back in mid-December. Three more non-conference victories over Fresno State, Savannah State and Richmond occurred before the Gators SEC conference schedule kicked in. The SEC is the weakest power-conference in the country this year. Outside of Florida and Kentucky, the SEC features a dozen other schools that are fighting for mediocrity and a few of them have given the Gators a scare. The Gators have an OT win over Arkansas, a 7-point win over Auburn and a 6-point win over Alabama. In Florida’s latest victory in Tennessee, they were pushed to the limit for the first 30 minutes of that game before pulling away and winning by nine. The computer-generated power rating numbers say that Florida is the better of these two teams but we’re not buying into that for a second.
Kentucky is a young team (every key contributor on the roster is either a freshman or a sophomore) and that inexperience has cost them on the road but it’s also served them well for future games like this one. All five of Kentucky's defeats this season have come away from home by five points or less. At Rupp, they've won every game by six points or more and they’ve also won its last three home games, all by 16 points or more. The Wildcats are a wickedly talented team that is near impossible to defeat at Rupp when the opposition is not vastly superior to them. The Gators are not the better team in this matchup and they are not likely to come into this building and prove otherwise.
Dave Essler
Clemson + 5
I have to do this. Well, I don't HAVE to but this is another one of those very low scoring games where we want points and the home team. This game might well be Clemson's biggest and most important game of the year. At 15-8 overall and 6-5 in the ACC, a win here could go a long way towards getting them into the Tournament. They've pretty much got winnable and/or home games from here on out, including a season finale at home against Pittsburgh. No disrespect to UVA. They are one of the better teams in the nation, of course, but this is a Clemson team that beat Duke at home pretty badly. I do realize that Duke and UVA have very contrasting styles. Three of UVA's losses have been to scrappy defensive teams like VCU, Tennessee, and slow Wisconsin, so there is a bit of a precedent here since they won't have to or be able to get Clemson out of what they want to do, which is simply grind, and slow. Clemson is better from the line, and has the 6th best defense in terms of efficiency in the nation. I do know UVA's defense is perhaps better, but that's why they're favored, and obviously by a point or two or three more simply because of where they're ranked. UVA hasn't won at Clemson in some time, either. And of course Clemson has the size inside to play with UVA. If the Tigers stay out of foul trouble, they could well win this game, and we'll see what happens as the day progresses.
My other early thoughts are the Pittsburgh and UNC won't score 136 or whatever points, and that perhaps that's a very close game, also. I really want to take UConn, but will wait. If they score 141 points, UConn covers, IMO. In their last meeting they won with Boatright and Napier shooting about 1-15 from behind the arc and they turned the ball over a ton. Perhaps using UConn in a ML parlay. We'll see what happens, as usual. I also lean to South Florida, in spite of the line move the other way, probably because it's in-season revenge.
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Kentucky -2.5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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This is a huge test for the young Wildcats and its one that I think they will pass. Kentucky come into this season with huge expectations and those were dampered with early losses in the season. Since then this young team is really coming together and could still be a major factor once March Madness begins. Kentucky's win over Auburn show the improvement in this teams growth. The Wildcats could have easily been looking ahead to this huge match up with Florida, but still were able to beat Auburn on the road when they had a very poor shooting night knocking down only 31% of their shots from the field. #3 Florida is one of the best defensive teams in the nation, but they can have their struggled on the offensive end. Kentucky has shown what they are capable of on the defensive end of the floor themselves and I look for them to do just that against the Gators. I like the Wildcats to win this big game at home.
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CS NORTHRIDGE VS CAL SANTA BARBARAVlSlT THESPREAD.COM
PLAY: CS NORTHRIDGE +13FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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This is the time of the season in college basketball where scheduling dynamics are a mandatory variable for any analyst. The numbers are rock solid, so it’s imperative that value be realized when it’s available via the situation route.
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That’s going to mean there needs to be a willingness to take substantial points with a team that might not have much of a realistic chance to win the game. If it’s a dead spot for the favorite, chances are you’ll get paid off regardless.
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I see tonight’s Cal State Northridge game with UC Santa Barbara as a game that fits the aforementioned criteria. The Gauchos could have a very difficult time being at their best here. UCSB is now tied for the top spot in the Big West, but they’re in front of UC Irvine on the tiebreaker by virtue of the head to head win. The Gauchos are coming back home off two really key road wins at Hawaii and Long Beach State. I especially like the fact UCSB won vs. the 49ers on a buzzer shot.
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As for Northridge, the Matadors have gone through the expected tough times as Reggie Theus looks to turn the fortunes of a struggling program around. Northridge will probably end up with another -.500 record when tabulating the final results. But even though they’re losing most of their games, the Matadors have been pretty competitive.
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In spite of a 4-7 Big West ledger, Northridge has been pretty much in every game for at least 30 minutes. They’ve had a few double digit losses, but no total blowouts. Even in those more lopsided losses, the games were in doubt till the late stages of the contest.
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Northridge is going to have some matchup problems here, and on paper the number is probably about right. But with UCSB off the two big road wins and facing a team they’ve already defeated, this stands out as a spot where they don’t figure to be at their best. Cal State Northridge has simply not mailed it in at any point this season, so I expect a big try from them here. I’ll grab the big points with the Matadors to hang tough enough to cover the substantial spread.
Mid-Major Matt
Samford +11
Samford hits the road to take on Elon. The Bulldogs have won four of their last seven and have managed to keep a lot of games close. They beat Elon at home back on January 25th 62-59 and are led by the Williams' Tim and Isaiah. The Phoenix have had the week off and who knows if that will slow them down as they are on a four game win streak. Last time out, the Phoenix beat woeful Georgia Southern by one point at home. Samford has covered in nine of their last 11 games in this series. They have won three of their last five at Elon and have made their life miserable. Elon has covered just four games out of 12 as a favorite. They are the better team, but we think Samford gets the cover.
Jack Jones
Florida +2
Only Syracuse and Wichita State are playing as well as Florida right now. The Gators have won a whopping 16 straight games with no signs of slowing down. That includes wins at Tennessee, Arkansas and Memphis during this stretch to prove that they can go on the road and win a big game.
Billy Donnovan and the Gators are going to be very motivated for revenge heading into this one. Sure, they have struggled of late against the Wildcats, but their last two losses in this series came by a combined seven points. They also beat Kentucky 69-52 at home last year.
This is a veteran, balanced Gators' team that is on a mission to win the SEC and earn a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament. They have five players averaging 9.4 points or more per game, including a healthy Casey Prather (15.3 ppg, 61.2% FGs, 50.0% 3-Pointers), who just recently returned from injury. The veteran presence on this team will help them in an atmosphere like Rupp Arena as these guys won't be phased at all.
Kentucky is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games after allowing a shooting percentage of 33% or less in its previous game. Florida's two losses this season came at Wisconsin and at UConn by a combined 7 points. This team takes a big step toward winning the SEC Title with a win tonight. Bet Florida Saturday.
Steve Rosen
NC State vs. Syracuse
Play: NC State +14
Syracuse is coming off a great performance against Pittsburgh. However, they are going to come into this game with a chip on their shoulder.The Wolfpack, have won five of their last six games. The team's hot stretch has included a four-point victory over Florida State, a one-point win against Miami and a two-point overtime triumph against Georgia Tech. T.J. Warren, the leading scorer in the ACC, has been particularly outstanding over his last five games, including a career-best performance his last time out.Since missing a game due to a sprained ankle, Warren (23.1 points, 7.4 rebounds) has posted an average of 26.4 points and 7.6 boards over his last five contests. Warren has shot 58.4 percent during that stretch, including a 15-of-26 performance en route to a career-high 34 points in Tuesday's 15-point win over Wake Forest. Too many points for a good team. NC State covers!