Steve Janus
Miami (Fla) -3½
The Hurricanes come into this game off a confidence building 77-73 road win over Florida State. Miami is now 3-2 on the road inside ACC play and their two losses have come by 5-points at Syracuse and 3-points at Maryland. Virginia Tech gave Pittsburgh all they could handle on the road last time out, which I believe has created value on the Hurricanes. The Hokies are a miserable 1-10 inside conference play and have lost 10 straight overall.
It just so happens that Virginia Tech's only conference win came against Miami back in early December. Now that could be cause for concern, but I think it makes this play even stronger. Without an earlier loss to the Hokies, the Hurricanes could very easily overlook this game. That just isn't going to happen. I expect a complete effort from Miami and a rather easy win.
Miami is 13-5 ATS in their last 18 road games and 8-1 ATS in their last 9 road games played on Saturday. They are also a dominant 13-4 ATS in their last 17 road games off a road win and 22-10 ATS in their last 32 games at least 15 games into the season against a team with a losing record. Virginia Tech on the other hand is just 1-10 ATS in their last 11 home games vs good defensive teams, holding opponents to 42% or worse from the field, 1-10 ATS in their last 11 home games vs teams who commit 14 or fewer turnovers at least 15 games into the season and 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games after 3 or more consecutive losses.
Patrick Webb
Texas Tech vs. Iowa State
Play: Iowa State -10½
The Cyclones have had five days to stew over a thrashing at the hands of West Virginia and welcome to Hilton a Texas Tech team that has struggled against solid and elite competition this season. Tech is a combined 2-9 vs. the RPI top 100 and were beaten soundly at home by the Cyclones in early Big 12 play.
Tech has covered the spread in seven of their last 9 conference games including all five road games so far this season. The Red Raiders defeated Oklahoma 68 to 60 at Oklahoma and have won three games in a row. Tech needs to keep ISU out of transition and needs to avoid turnovers to stay in this game. Tech was out-shot at the foul line by 21 and committed 8 more turnovers at home against ISU who struggled from three in the last meeting. ISU lead 44 to 29 at half and held on to cover by 5.5 points in the last meeting.
ISU has been in a rough ATS stretch failing to cover in their last 7 games as a favorite. The Cyclones were shot out of the gym in a 25 point loss at West Virginia but have covered four of the last five meetings vs. Tech. ISU's ability to hit threes and force the tempo are two factors that should lead to a healthy margin for the Cyclones. ISU is holding foes to less than 40% shooting at home and Tech has been a poor shooting team on the road hitting less than 42% in away games this season.
Dennis Macklin
Fordham vs. Richmond
Play: Richmond -11½
These are two teams clearly headed in opposite directions. Fordham is clearly an A-10 bottom feeder and presently on a 2-10 (3-8-1 ATS) run. Richmond is playing very well and on a 6-2 run with the losses coming at conference heavies St Louis and VCA. The Spiders won 77-74 (-5) at Fordham back on January 11th in a game that really shouldn't have been that close. The Rams shot just 33% from the field but snagged 17 offensive rebounds and were the beneficiaries of 14 Spider giveaways. Fordham is 1-6 SU and ATS in their L7 at this venue and a more focused effort by the homies figures to translate to an easy double-digit win.
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Pittsburgh at North CarolinaFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Prediction: North CarolinaFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Had UNC played their game against Duke earlier this week we may have faded the Tar Heels here, but as it stands UNC avoids the letdown spot and instead hosts Pittsburgh who themselves are in a huge motivational "play-against" situation. Remember, teams don't have to "win" in order to be in a letdown - just be coming off a game that they clearly "got up" for, and Pittsburgh's near-victory against Syracuse was obviously that type of game.
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Panthers were never going to cover even if that final three-point shot didn't fall, but losing in the manner in which they did - at home no less - does leave a mark on college players and we look for a visible hangover to be on this Pittsburgh team today as a result. UNC has quietly won and covered five games in a row, and with Duke still more than few days away Pittsburgh has UNC's full attention here.
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Brigham Young vs. St. Mary'sFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: St. Mary'sFREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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Here are my keys to the game:FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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1. Homecourt Advantage - Sometimes, breaking down a game can be pretty simple. Such is the case in this WCC matchup. BYU is a very poor 5-9 outside of Provo overall, 3-7 in true road games. St. Mary's is 14-1 straight up at home. Two weeks ago the teams met in Provo and the home team won 84-71 as six-point favorites. A change in venue should bring a change in result. Making matters even more difficult here on Brigham Young is that this is their second road game in three nights. They lost on Thursday at Pacific (as 3.5-point favorites).
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2. Revenge - I already made mention that BYU won the first meeting. St. Mary's did lead at halftime though. This despite not shooting the ball particularly well. As you'll see in my "X-Factor," I expect the Gaels to shoot the ball much better this go around. The numbers are on their side.
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3. X-Factor - At home this year, St. Mary's is shooting the ball at 48.5%, averaging 78 pts/game. Look for them to take advantage of a BYU defense that allows nearly 88 pts/game on the road.
Jeff Scott Sports
3 UNIT PLAYS
North Carolina Pitt Under 137: This is a very high OU line for this game I feel. We know that Carolina probably isn't going to blow this Pitt team out by 20 or 30 points, which is what it would take for this game to go over the total, because the Panther just don't simply have enough offense to get this one over the total in a tight close game. The Panthers have averaged a mere 57.4 ppg in their last 5 games and that includes two games that went to OT. Truly pathetic offense. Making it even tougher for them today is the fact that they will be playing a Carolina team that has allowed just 64.2 ppg during their 5 game win streak, plus they have allowed just 38.8% shooting at home all year and 65.6 ppg at home in ACC play. Now we know Pitt won't score allot, but they also won't give up allot, as they have allowed just 54.4 ppg in their last 4 games, including 2 OT games, and they have allowed just 65.6 ppg on the road this year. Carolina scores 79 ppg but they do most of their damage from in the paint and Pitt defends the Paint really well. Carolina is on of the worst 3pt shooting teams in the nation and one of the worst from the FT line, so don't expect many extra points from those two areas. This also should be a slow paced game cause Pitt does not run. I just can't see this game hitting the 130's at all.
VCU/ St Louis Under 136: I don't see this one hitting the 130's at all. St Louis at home won't allow the pace to get out of hand. St Louis like to slow the pace down and they play excellent defense, especially at home, where they have allowed just 59.3 ppg on 39.6% shooting for the year. VCU does average 72.3 ppg on the road, but they have only shot 42.3% away from home this year, so it is hard to see them hitting 70 points at all, especially since St Louis has allowed 70 points, in regulation, just once at home all year. St Louis has averaged 74 ppg at home, but VCU has tightened up their defense of late, allowing just 65.2 ppg in their last 5 games. Both teams play very good defense and this should be a fairly slow paced game. which should keep this one in the 120's.
More later
Harry Bondi
CINCINNATI (-15.5) over Houston
We expect Cincinnati to come flying out of the gate tonight after having a week to stew over its worst performance of the season in getting blown-out by SMU last Saturday. The Bearcats are one of the country's best defensive teams but allowed the Mustangs to shoot 54.3 percent and gave up a season high 76 points. Cincinnati is only allowing 57 points and 39.2 percent shooting percentage so we expect them to lock Houston down on the defensive end and get ots high flying offense back on track against a Cougars squad that has struggled on the road and lost it's last 11 games vs ranked opponents by double digits. Bearcats are 16-0 at home this season with 13 of those wins by double digits. The Bearcats will be focused against Houston after winning in Houston by just a point in January. Take Cincy in a blowout over Houston.
OC Dooley
Kentucky -2
This is the ESPN primetime special that also has drawn the hype of the Gameday crew. Due to the fact that visiting Florida (22-2) is riding a sixteen game winning streak and a lofty #3 national ranking, we get rare line “value” with Kentucky this evening for which I am taking advantage. Wildcats coach John Calipari is quoted as saying he will take “talent over experience” and that is exactly what his very young roster (record 6 different McDonalds High School All-Americans) has versus a senior-laden Florida contingent. Kentucky has already lost three different high-profile games this campaign beginning with game-three versus Michigan State followed by a trip to North Carolina and an emotionally charged Rupp Arena versus Louisville. However one can argue that the young Wildcats in all three of those situations gained invaluable experience at the collegiate level. As opposed to earlier in the campaign Kentucky as a team is now taking better shots, rotating better on defense and generally playing with more efficiency. Dating all the way back to the 1997 season Kentucky when cast as a small home favorite of “3 or less” points (10-2 ATS) has been money in the bank
Chris Jordan
My free play for tonight is on UCLA at home over Utah, in what should be a rather easy rout.
This is 100 percent, bonafide mismatch, and the Bruins should roll to the same kind of easy win we saw them score over Colorado on Thursday, when five UCLA players scored in double figures in a 92-74 win. Kyle Anderson scored a game-high 22 points and dished 11 assists, while Jordan Adams finished with 17 points on 6-of-13 shooting. Bryce Alford added 14 points for the Bruins after connecting on 4-of-5 from beyond the arc - all of them long-range.
Now here's the thing, UCLA trailed by as many as 10 points twice in the first half and Colorado led at halftime, 40-36, before the Bruins outscored the Buffaloes, 56-34, in the second half. That served as the wake-up call for the weekend, and the second-half momentum the Bruins will carry over into this game.
This is a revenge game for the Bruins, who dropped a 71-67 decision at Utah on Saturday, Jan. 18. UCLA has won five of its last six games since that loss in Salt Lake City.
Things are different now, and the Bruins will get revenge with a double-digit win.
4♦ UCLA
Jeff Benton
Your Saturday freebie is to ride the grooving Red Raiders of Texas Tech plus the points - the very generous points - in their visit to Ames to play an Iowa State side that continues to burn money for their backers.
Iowa State has failed 8 of their last 9 against the spread, and were just blasted in their latest game, a 102-77 loss at West Virginia!
Texas Tech has become a dangerous "out" these days, as Tubby Smith's team has won 3 straight and 5 of their last 8 straight up. The Red Raiders are also on a 7-2 against the spread run their last 9 games overall, and are seeking payback for a 72-62 home loss at the hands of Iowa State back on January 4th in Lubbock.
Just cannot lay double-digits with the Cyclones, especially since they just 4-5 straight up since opening the campaign at 14-0.
Red Raiders cover another!
3♦ TEXAS TECH
Craig Davis
Free play of the day on the Fightin' Illini over Ohio State as they are actually getting a few points at home... where Vegas is crazy to give them points in this situation.
Ohio State is a bad basketball team that has no business giving any points to any team on the road. If this team can't beat Michigan, their arch rival, at home after leading by eight in the second half, they don't deserve to be favored on the road against an Illini team that nearly beat them in Columbus.
The problem is, Ohio State can't shoot free throws, they have lost their defensive edge, and turn the ball over way too much. Ever since that second half vs. Michigan State when they came all the way back from 18 down only to lose in overtime, OSU hasn't been even close to what they were through 15 games.
Yes, they've somehow found a way to win at Iowa and at Wisconsin, but those losses to Penn State and Nebraska can't be forgotten.
This play is a lot more against Ohio State than it is for Illinois... because honestly, I don't trust either team... they both stink. Take the home team plus the points as your free play of the day..
4♦ ILLINOIS
Scott Delaney
Remember last season, when La Salle beat city-rival Saint Joseph’s to claim a piece of the Big 5 title? That was the last time these two met, back on Feb. 16, 2013. The Explorers were making one helluva run last season, you remember?
Yeah, so do the Hawks of St. Joe's. Now it's time for revenge.
My first free play for today is St. Joseph's (16-7, 6-3 A-10) plus the points, as I think this rivalry continues to heat up, and the Hawks will get it done in a series that has seen alternate winners the last five meetings. There hasn't been a repeat winner in this rivalry since 2009, when La Salle won its second straight.
In all honesty, the Hawks look more like the Explorers of last year, as they've making a nice late run right now, and it would be bittersweet - and ironic - to score a huge win in mid-February, over the team that deflated their 2012-13 campaign.
St. Joe's arrives after posting a hard-fought 2-1 mark at home last week, as it faced the league’s top three teams: beating UMass and Virginia Commonwealth, and falling to St. Louis. That three-game homestand was the perfect warm-up for this game.
The Explorers (12-11, 4-5 A-10) have failed to cover four of five at home, six of seven in league play and 16 of 21 overall. On the other hand, the Hawks are in on ATS win streaks of 4-1 on the road and 6-4 in this series.
1♦ ST. JOSEPHS
My second free play for Saturday is on Syracuse, laying a rather big number, but undoubtedly capable of covering the two touchdowns against North Carolina State.
We have the No. 1 team in the nation looking to improve on its program-best 24-game win streak, while maintain its status as one of only two undefeated teams in Division I. The other, Wichita State from the Missouri Valley Conference, plays at Evansville tomorrow.
I'm intrigued by a couple of sophomores for this one, as Trevor Cooney has now drained 74 3-pointers this season, tying him for second place on Syracuse's record list for 3-pointers by a sophomore. Cooney is chasing Gerry McNamara's record.of 105 made 3-pointers in 2003-04.
Coach Jim Boeheim's system is set up and designed perfectly for an offense to thrive, and the Wolfpack won't be able to slow things down from the Orange.
The other sophomore is Michael Gbinije, who just recently came off the bench to give the Orange valuable minutes for in its win at Pittsburgh, where he was 4-for-4 from the free throw line and invaluable on the defensive glass.
The Wolfpack (16-8 overall, 6-5 ACC) is in sixth place in the league, and though this is a well-coached team, by third-year head coach Mark Gottfried, again, I don't see NC State with the personnel to slow things down, or to keep up.
Syracuse leads the all-time series with North Carolina State, 4-1, and ironically, the Orange was also ranked No. 1 the last time these two met, on Dec. 17, 2011. The Orange has covered eight of 10 in league play while the Pack have dropped 13 of their last 16 on Saturdays.
Lay the home chalk.
4♦ SYRACUSE
Brad Wilton
Looking for a blowout on Saturday?
Then look no further then this game between Houston and Cincinnati at the Fifth Third Arena.
Here you have a Cincy team that has had a full week to let their blowout loss at SMU last weekend sink it. It is a Bearcats team that has won all 16 of their home games this season, and has covered 8 of their last 11 games at home, and it is a Bearcats team that nearly lost at Houston (61-60, back on January 7th) in the first meeting this season between these new conference rivals.
The Cougars were able to snap a 6 game losing streak with a win over Temple their last time out, but Houston has lost their last 4 conference road games, and has lost them bad; 23 points at Rutgers, 37 points at UConn, 23 points at Memphis, and 39 points at Louisville.
Now do you see why I feel this game will be a blowout of epic proportions?
Can't place a line high enough on the Bearcats.
4♦ CINCINNATI
Gabriel Dupont
My free play for tonight is on the Duke Blue Devils, who return home after being snowed out of their game against the North Carolina Tar Heels, and will host the Maryland Terrapins in one of the better ACC rivalries.
This is a significant trip for the Terps, who appear ready to pocket some big cash and bolt for the Big Ten, which is actually 12, and I suppose will be 14 , with the additions of Maryland and Rutgers. Normally I'd lend consideration to a team playing on its farewell tour in this regard, but Duke don't care, and will serve the Terps with one foot in the ass, and its hand pushing them out the door.
Why Duke can cover this game - Because the Devils got extra rest due to the cancellation at Chapel Hill, they're going to be fired up to hit the floor and ball. Ranked No. 8 in the Associated Press Poll and No. 9 in the USA Today Coaches’ Poll, Duke has won 29 straight at Cameron Indoor Stadium, the second-longest streak in the nation. Duke is 13-0 at home this season and has limited nine straight opponents to less than 70 points.
Why Maryland is in trouble in this game - The ongoing saga during his three-year tenure of coach Mark Turgeon has been a lack of consistency at point guard. Nothing has changed this year, and adding to his woes is a terrible defense and his freshmen struggling dearly. Trust me, the all-around struggle of this team is about to peak, and the Terps are about to endure the most frustrating game of the season with his team.
In conclusion, why Duke is my SMART FREE PLAY in this game - If it weren't for Doug McDermott, and the fondness I've grown to have for the Creighton all-American, I'd have to say the Player of the Year is Duke's Jabari Parker. He recently recorded his eighth double-double of the year with career highs of 29 points and 16 rebounds in last Saturday's 89-68 win over Boston College. This kid can do it all, and is impressive to watch from every facet. In the win over B.C., Parker hit 12-of-17 shots from the field, notching a career high for made field goals, while adding three blocks and five offensive rebounds.
Duke, which is in double-revenge in this series, comes into this one on ATS win streaks of 5-1 at home, 6-0 against winning teams, 5-1 when hosting teams that lose on the road and 7-0 overall - all in league play. Prior to losing the last two meetings last season - one in the regular season and one in the in the quarterfinals of the ACC tournament, Duke had won six straight in the series.
1♦ DUKE
John Ryan
Stanford at Washington St.
Play: Washington St.
The simulator shows a high probability that WSU will lose this game by fewer than 6 points and has a great opportunity for a home win. Given this favorable projection, I would suggest making a 4* play using the line and a 1.5* amount using the money line for a total risk of 5.5* units. WSU is projected to have 10 to 13 turnovers and Stanford is a money burning 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) when they force 10 to 13 turnovers in a game over the last 2 seasons. WSU was throttled by Stanford 8-48 and failed to cover as 13 point road dogs back on January 15. However, this embarrassing los serves as a real motivating factor for the team and they have a strong history with revenge as their ally. WSU is a near-perfect 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games revenging a road loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons. Take Washington State.