Tom Stryker
Florida International vs. UTEP
Play: UTEP -11½
Off a two-point home loss to Florida Atlantic, Texas El Paso will have no trouble taking out its frustrations on this soft Florida International bunch.
Thanks to Thursday's loss to the Owls, the Miners are now tied for first place in the CUSA with Louisiana Tech, Middle Tennessee and Southern Mississippi. With a pair of road games against the Green Wave and Golden Eagles on deck, the Miners will look to put this one away early. Technically speaking, this spot works for UTEP. In the friendly confines of the Don Haskins Center coming off a straight up loss, the Miners own a reliable 53-9 SU and 24-18-4 ATS record including a nearly perfect 14-1 SU and 9-1 ATS mark in this spot coming off the comforts of a home game.
Off Thursday's road win and cover at Texas San Antonio, FIU will have its hands full in this CUSA contest. As a guest running with three days of rest or less and matched up against an opponent that hits the court off a straight up loss, the Panthers are a pitiful 4-29 SU and 10-17-1 ATS. In this spot catching +11.5 or more, Florida International drops down to a disturbing 0-9 SU and 1-7-1 ATS.
The Miners haven't dropped consecutive C-USA home games since February of 2003. Off the blemish to FAU, UTEP will crank its game up a notch and steamroll visiting FIU. Take Texas El Paso.
Tony Karpinski
Maryland vs. Duke
Play:Maryland +14
Maryland has an oversized backcourt, which can lead to mismatches for Duke to defend. Simply with Dezmine Wells and his scoring ability. Duke has to watch the deep ball, where they have been amazing shooting on the season so far, but Seth Allen from Maryland, has been their bright spot from behind the arc, and they do need to keep an eye out for him,as well. Maryland has to try and disrupt the flow of the game for Jabari Parker. Much of the game is mental, and Maryland has to stay focused, and be mature in making sure they are keeping things going in the right direction for the team. Duke wins this one buts it will be closer than the oddsmakers project.
Jeff Alexander
Tulane +12
This line is an overreaction to UAB's 24-point win over So. Miss and Tulane's 27-point loss at Middle Tennessee. The Green Wave are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss of more than 20 points while the Blazers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a win of more than 20 points. Playing against double-digit favorites off a win of 20 points or more in conference play has resulted in a 72-38 ATS record the last 5 seasons if they are matched up against an opponent that's off a double-digit loss to a conference foe. Grab the Green Wave.
Dave Price
UCLA -9½
Arizona has opened the door for UCLA with another conference loss at Arizona State last night, and the Bruins won't squander this opportunity at home to inch closer in the standings, especially with two straight road games looming. UCLA has just three conference defeats, but one of those came at Utah so the Bruins will be looking for payback. UCLA has been nearly unbeatable at home where it is 14-1 on the season. Utah, on the other hand, is just 1-6 on the road. Outside of a home loss to Arizona, UCLA is 5-0 in its other Pac-12 home contests and has won them all by 12 points or more. Teams headed up by coach Steve Alford have been strong when seeking revenge. In fact, Alford's squads are 41-24 ATS since 1997 when seeking revenge for a same-season loss. UCLA is 13-4 ATS as chalk this season with an average winning margin of 18.0 points in these games. Lay the points.
Joe Gavazzi
Florida +2½
Never easy to go against a home court where Kentucky is 63-2 SU, including 14 straight wins this year. Backed by that advantage, and trailing Florida by 2 games in the loss column, one could hypothesize that for Florida it aint no fun when the rabbit’s got the gun. Yet, we will stand fast with the fundamental advantages accorded to the Gators that have resulted in their record of 21-2 SU, 12-7 ATS. Florida interior force Young creates the ideal standoff for Kentucky man-child Randle. But, it is the superior defense and overall experience of a Florida team, that has been to 3 consecutive Elite 8s, that grabs my attention. For advantage on the inside, consider Yeguette and Prather, a pair of seniors with 4 years of experience. Emerging frosh Walker adds adequate depth. On the outside, PG Wilbekin, a slithery senior leader, has few peers. Then there is the Gators defense which allows 58/39/33 and has a combined rebound, TO, and assist/TO margin of 9.7, easily good enough for Defensive Dandy status. No surprise to this bureau that Kentucky suffers a rare home loss.
Joe Duffy
Samford +10
Elon is is a dichotomous spread and straight up team. This means if a team is consistently winning outright but failing to cover or losing outright and covering, we ride the spread streak. This has proven to be a way to isolate over and undervalued teams.
They are 10-2 straight up at home, but 2-6 against the spread at home. They are 7-3 straight up in conference games, though 3-7 to the number. Samford owns an 8-3 straight up edge over the Phoenix. Samford matches up well. Earlier this season, they limited Elon, the league’s top scoring team at 77.1 points per game, to only 59 points and a 39.2-percent outing from the floor.
The Bulldogs’ 2013-14 roster is comprised of eight newcomers, six true freshmen, three sophomores and five juniors. This means a team that peaks late in the season and they are on a solid 5-3 run against the spread.
We also say handicapping is in big part the art of isolating under and overvalued teams. This is a meeting of both.
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Tulane vs UABFOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
Pick:Tulane +11.5FOR FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Tulane Green Wave look like overlays as double-digit underdogs vs. the UAB Blazers, especially considering that at 5-5 inside Conference USA, Tulane is ahead of 4-6 UAB despite Tulane being only 13-12 overall. We also question whether UAB can score enough points to cover this big spot, as the Blazers are 301st in the country in effective field goal percentage at 46.3 percent, and they rank a dismal 12th in that category during conference play. Meanwhile Tulane is fourth in Conference USA in effective field goal percentage against. The Green Wave are also adept at picking up cheap points from the foul line as they rank an excellent 17th in the country in FTA/FGA percentage, and they are a capable fifth in C-USA in three-point shooting while facing a UAB team 14th in the conference in three-point defense. UAB is 4-11 ATS in its last 15 conference games.
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Pick: Ohio State -4.5FREE SERVlCE PLAYS VlSlT THESPREAD.COM
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The Ohio State Buckeyes are underperforming relative to preseason expectations at 19-6, and they could use a big bounce-back performance on the road vs. the Illinois Fighting Illini after losing at home to Michigan on Tuesday. And the Buckeyes have not forgotten what happened the last time they visited Champaign, when the Illini routed them 74-55 last season. For all of their inconsistencies offensively, the Buckeyes are still fourth in the country in defensive efficiency and 20th in effective field goal percentage allowed at only 44.3 percent, and that stifling defense could be enough to produce a safe road win here and get some revenge vs. an Illinois team that is just 303rd in effective field goal percentage offensively. The Illini are also now just 3-9 inside the Big Ten after losing at Nebraska Wednesday. Illinois is 1-6 ATS in its last seven games vs. teams with a winning percentage above .600.
Dr. Bob
Opinion - Texas Tech (+10½) over IOWA STATE
Iowa State is just 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games while Texas Tech is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 and coming off wins over Oklahoma State and Oklahoma. The combination of the Texas Tech’s good recent play and Iowa State’s ugly 77-102 loss at West Virginia set up the Red Raiders in a very good 99-29-3 ATS road underdog situation today. However, my ratings favor Iowa State by 11 ½ points and I’m not eager to give up too much line value here even though the situation is very good. I’ll lean with the Red Raiders at +10 or +10 ½ and I’d take Texas Tech in a 2-Star Best Bet at +11 or more.
Opinion – Virginia (-5) over CLEMSON
Virginia is 11-1 straight up and 10-2 ATS in ACC play this season and the Cavaliers should be at their best with 4 full days off to prepare for this game. Virginia has a very good coach in Tony Bennett and he’s tough to beat when he has enough time to prepare. In 5 seasons with Virginia the Cavs are now 41-17 ATS in regular season games with 3 or more days off between games (5-0 ATS in conference play this season), including 18-5 ATS in road games. Clemson is a very good defensive team (#3 in defensive effective FG%) but Virginia’s offense is relatively better against good defensive teams (3-0 ATS against teams that rank in the top 30 in effective FG% defense) and Clemson doesn’t have enough offense to perform well against Virginia’s sticky defense, which ranks 2nd in compensated points per possession allowed. Clemson has really struggled against good defensive teams, going 1-5 straight up and 1-4-1 ATS against teams that rank in the top 50 in compensated points per possession allowed. The Tigers shot a combined 34.7% from the field in those 6 games against good defensive teams. My ratings favor Virginia by 5.7 points and using conference games only would favor the Cavaliers by 9 points in this game. There’s a little line value here and the matchup is favorable but I’ll just consider Virginia an opinion at -5 or less.
James Manos
Samford +10.5
This line, quite frankly, is a bit ridiculous and I see no reason for Elon to be a double digit favorite in this contest. Elon's been the much better of the two teams but has failed to pull away in most of their home conference wins and now must ensure a blowout win vs a team that beat them SU just last month. In that game Samford was catching just +4 and now a swing in homecourt justifies a 6.5 line move? Grab the dog.
Alatex
Ohio State at Illinois
Play:Ohio State -4.5
Both of these Big Ten schools have had their share of problems this season. Ohio State was ranked in the top 10 before dropping five of six games in conference play. The Buckeyes managed to turns things around some by winning four of five before losing at home to Michigan last time out. Overall, OSU (6-6 Big Ten) does have nice road wins at Wisconsin and Iowa as well as home wins over Illinois and Purdue and are currently 6-6 in conference play. Ohio State is +0.06 PPP in conference play; one of only five Big Ten teams with a positive efficiency rate. On the other hand, Illinois is just 3-9 in conference play and is -0.09 PPP. They have a home win over Indiana and two wins over Penn State but suffered an eight game losing streak in between wins over the Nittany Lions. They Illini are coming off another loss, 67-58, at Nebraska and have been plagued by an inability to generate offense. Illinois has topped 60 points in only four Big Ten games and playing at home has not helped with four straight defeats all by at least seven points. Ohio State plays solid defense and should have no trouble keeping the Illini off the scoreboard on most trips down the court. They too have struggled, but are at least showing some positive signs of life. This is a very winnable road game and I look for the road side to continue Illinois’ misery.
River City Sharps
IUPU-Ft. Wayne -2
Not going to lie to you, IUPU-Ft. Wayne has been pretty good to the Sharps this CBB season and we think we have another good spot to tail the Mastadons tonight. Denver comes to Ft. Wayne in what is a big game in the conference standings and Denver is coming off a really embaraassing 10-point loss to IUPUI. Over the past several years, one of the best angles out there is playing against Denver on the road. While they have been one of the top teams in their league, they have been terrible away from home. This year has been slightly better, but they are still only 5-8 on the road. Their main problem has been their ability to score, only averaging 61.8 ppg away from home while they are giving up 62.5 ppg. Every team struggle more on the road at certainly the Masties haven't been exempt from that...last weekend, they got shelled twice on their Dakotas road trip. However, they are really, really solid at home, posting a 12-1 record, 7-1 ATS. They know this is a really important game, you'll have a jacked up Saturday night crowd and we really like Ft. Wayne to take care of the Pioneers.
Wunderdog
Oklahoma at Oklahoma St
Pick: Under 156
This is a big game for both Oklahoma and Oklahoma State as it is a huge in-state rivalry, and with both teams off a loss, and NCAA Tournament importance, I expect this one to be played intently on the defensive end. Oklahoma State is struggling with five straight losses, and as Marcus Smart sits out the second of a three games suspension, the Cowboys offense managed just 68 points in his absence in the first one. They are going to need to shorten the game without their best player on the floor. Oklahoma was slowed to 60 points in their last game vs. Texas Tech, so look for Oklahoma State to take a similar approach here with the tempo. The Sooners are 7-3 to the UNDER in their last 10 in the conference, and I expect this one to put another one in the UNDER column.
Tom Grassi
Miami vs. Virginia Tech
Play: Miami -3½
After an upset road victory against in-state rival Florida State on Monday, the Hurricanes travel much farther, this time to Virginia, to take on a Hokies team looking for its first outright victory of 2014, a stretch of 10 games. They came close to a huge upset last Saturday before losing at Pitt as an 18-point dog.
Miami has usually been able to take advantage when they face a losing team, managing a 34-16-1 ATS mark in their last 51 games under this situation. They also enter this game having beaten the spread in five consecutive games, and have a 13-5 ATS record away from South Beach over the past two years.
That success on the road is in direct contrast to Virginia Tech’s situation at home, where they’ve failed to cover in any of their last seven games before the home crowd. Conference play hasn’t been for them either, with just a 9-19 ATS mark to show for their efforts in their last two seasons.
At some point, that losing streak for the Hokies will come to an end, but it doesn’t figure to happen in this one. That’s because the Canes have momentum from their previous game to go along with consistent success on the road. That’s a deadly combination for any team to face, especially one lacking like Tech. Therefore, lay the points and take Miami.
Michael Alexander
Maryland vs. Duke
Play: Duke -13½
Maryland is moving to the Big Ten next season, but before it leaves the ACC it will have to make one final trip to Cameron Indoor Stadium to visit Duke on Saturday. The Terrapins had more success than most teams in the legendary arena during the Gary Williams era, though little of late. The Blue Devils will be a well-rested squad in search of their third straight win after a rivalry game at North Carolina on Wednesday was postponed due to snow. Maryland is just 1-5 on the road in conference play.
Tom Barton
Brown vs Pennsylvania
Pick: Brown -5.5
Who would have thought that at this point in the season the Brown Bears would have a shot to win the Ivy league title, but they are right in it. Brown is showing all sorts of improvement this year but their name still drives the line down in Vegas which is beneficial for us today. The Bears are just 2 games out in the Ivy's and have been on a roll since conference play began. Brown lost 4 straight on Jan. 2nd but since then they have rolled off 6 of 9 wins with their losses being on the road at first place Yale, on the road at first place Harvard and a heart breaker last week to a good Princeton team. Brown is averaging 71 points per game but it's their huge rebounding that gets the job done ranking an incredible 9th in the country in rebounds. Brown is 7-3 at home and now take on a Penn team that has fallen apart this year. Penn has lost 14 of their 20 games and sit at 1-8 on the road with their sole win coming in game 2 of the season. The Quakers have lost by 15 and 30 their last two road games and they rank 208th in the country in rebounds. Brown will own the boards and own this game. The Bears won here last year 71-48 and have a much better team this year.