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Free Picks: Service Plays for Saturday February 16

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Dave CokinFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Oregon at Washington StateFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Pick: OregonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Back end of a road swing for Oregon, but I like the Ducks to complete the sweep. Oregon has missed PG Artis, but they are off a very sharp effort at Washington and I expect another strong performance tonight. As much as anything, this is a Washington State fade. The Cougars managed to make it interesting in Thursday's loss to Oregon State, but it ended up as another defeat for Wazzou. That's five in a row the wrong way for the hosts, and I'm just not seeing a whole lot of energy out of the Cougars right now. Oregon is clearly superior and with a strong desire to maintain that top spot in the PAC-12, I'm willing to back the Ducks as road chalk tonight.

 
Posted : February 16, 2013 8:57 am
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Greg Daraban

San Diego State at UNLV
Pick: UNLV

Aztecs and Rebels struggling a bit. Loser could find themselves on the outside looking in. UNLV won at SDSU last month. This is big game in the conference UNLV wins at home and covers behind big man A Bennett. Take UNLV

 
Posted : February 16, 2013 8:58 am
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JR O'DonnellFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Georgia / Mississippi Over 13FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Tad Smith Coliseum in Oxford Miss is where will go for a Way Over 130 Total Slam... Bonus Total here goes at 8 pm and this Rebel ball club pours in 81.8 ppg at home ... off a couple of sub par scoring ball games..These Dawgs are just what the doctor ordered for the Rebels to score.
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SIU-Edwardsville -2.5FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Capped hard to the Defense as we will go hard on these No names... The Cougars are @ home and off a sweet win vs Murry State... The Austin Peay Governors are 1-10 while on the road this season, 2-10 against conference opponents, and 4-10 against non-conference opponents and give up a terrible 78.1 points on the road. Power Rated @ -5 flat. Cougars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. 60-55 final

 
Posted : February 16, 2013 9:00 am
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Joe GavazziFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Louisiana Tech -4FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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The WAC has become a road oriented league. Idaho is among the teams that have fallen into the pattern. Under fifth year HC Verlin, the Vandals are a commendable 10-2 ATS on the road this season. Yet at home in the Cowan Spectrum, they are a highly disappointing 5-7 SU, 1-10 ATS. That includes 0-7 ATS in league play this season. After a campaign stretching 24 games, those type of numbers can hardly be ignored. LA Tech enters on a 14 game winning streak, at 13-0 SU in the conference. They continue to hold a two game league lead over NM St and Denver, each of whom matched LA Tech's Thursday night victory. Though the Bulldogs have defeated each of their pursuers, they are well aware they must face each on the road before season concludes. With potential losses looming at tough sites, that means every victory counts towards the Bulldogs chances of conference supremacy. Tech has won all 20 games in which they have been favored this year, and stand a lofty 11-2 ATS as fav to -8. One of those losses came Thursday night at Seattle when despite forcing 24 TOs (they average 18 per game) this 72% FT team was just 14-26 from the stripe, including a last second miss that resulted in a ½ point failure to cover. Let's take this highly focused visitor to continue their winning ways, against a team with one of the biggest inverted home road dichotomies of the season.

 
Posted : February 16, 2013 9:01 am
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Villanova +4½ over CONNECTICUT
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The Wildcats have been on a hiatus the past few years but are once again becoming relevant. They shocked the country with back-to-back wins over #3 Syracuse and #5 Louisville in late January but have gone just 2-3 since. Villanova has some rather ugly losses this season but what they do have is one of the best point guard tandems in the country, which is paramount at this level. The Wildcats also lead the Big East in free throw attempts and that’s another good sign of an aggressive club. Most importantly, the Wildcats possess a stellar defense that has held the opposition to under 40% from the field this year. Combine strong guard play, aggressiveness and a solid defense and you’ll compete with any. For this one, Villanova finds itself in a favorable spot.
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The Huskies are coming off a huge home victory over the Orange. That instantly makes them a huge target for a letdown. Prior to that big win on Wednesday, two of UConn’s last four games went into OT and the Huskies barely escaped with victories over Providence and South Florida. The latter game against the 1-11 Bulls occurred on the Huskies’ home floor. UConn is an erratic bunch and they don’t have an edge over Villanova in any key areas. After beating then #17 Notre Dame on Jan 12, the Huskies were destroyed by Pitt the very next game and this one has a similar scent to it.
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WASHINGTON STATE +3½ over OregonFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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There are a lot of folks in America who do not bet on the NHL. The NBA is on the all-star break and there is no more football until late summer. That leaves the focus on today’s college basketball menu, specifically the major conferences. Oregon ranks #23 in the country and they lead the PAC-12 with a 9-3 mark and a 20-4 overall record. Washington State is dead last in the PAC-12 with a 2-10 conference mark and an 11-14 overall record. The books have made the Ducks an enticing choice here but we’re suggesting that you not take the bait. This is a sharp line that is designed to attract money on the wrong side.
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Oregon is through the tough part of its schedule with games remaining after this one against Cal, Stanford, Oregon State, Colorado and Utah. In other words, barring a major collapse, an invite to the dance is almost certain whether they win the conference tournament or not. Oregon figures to be on cruise control until the start of the PAC-12 tournament. Playing the worst team in the conference and being on the road is unlikely to get their competitive juices flowing. This is not a terrible Cougars club. They’ve grossly underachieved this season but they have plenty of talent and they’ve been close in many games against top-notch competition. For Wazzou, it’s another lost year. They’ve dropped five in a row and seven of their past eight. Any salvation or satisfaction will come from beating ranked teams like Oregon and Arizona. WSU will give it everything they’ve got here and they’re definitely talented enough to pull off the upset against what could be a disinterested guest.

 
Posted : February 16, 2013 10:38 am
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Kansas State -4.5FOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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As if Monday's humiliating 21-point loss at Kansas isn't enough motivation, the Wildcats were taken down by 8 points by Baylor in last season's conference tourney. These setbacks will have K-State extremely focused when it takes the floor this evening. Baylor has won its last 2 handily but both were at home and against Texas Tech and West Virginia. The Bears haven't been as solid on the road where they have dropped 2 straight and 4 of 6. K-State, meanwhile, has been lights out at home where it is 12-1. Each of these 12 wins have come by at least 6 points. The Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a loss of more than 20 points and 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games. Lay the points.

 
Posted : February 16, 2013 10:38 am
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Maryland +5.5FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Duke is clearly one of the top teams in the country, but little has come easy on the road for the No. 1 team in the land. The Blue Devils have losses of 8 and 27 points at NC State and Miami. They won easily at Florida State but were fortunate to escape with wins at Wake Forest and Boston College, defeating them by 5 points and one-point, respectively. Maryland has been dominant at home where it is 14-2 this season and a 20-point loss to the Dukies at Cameron in the season's first meeting can't be sitting well. The Blue Devils are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games and 5-11 ATS in their last 16 versus ACC foes. The Terrapins are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a double-digit loss at home. Look for Maryland to give Duke all it wants and more today.

 
Posted : February 16, 2013 10:39 am
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NellyFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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San Francisco + over GonzagaFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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With all the build-up for the biggest game of the WCC season, Gonzaga might not be able to help being a bit flat for Saturday's follow-up game, tipping off just over 40 hours after the huge win in Moraga. Gonzaga played a brilliant game, shooting 50 percent including nine 3-point makes and a huge edge at the free throw line, storming back from a one-point halftime deficit to win by 17. San Francisco has quietly won four of the last seven games including three road wins with a win over BYU. The Dons are coming off a very disappointing loss to Portland on Thursday however. After the big win over BYU, San Francisco was a bit flat in the narrow loss to Portland with poor shooting and a lack of intensity on defense. While Gonzaga has some great talent San Francisco has the size to compete in this match-up with big physical guards and enough height down low to avoid terrible mismatches though few will be able to hang with Kelly Olynyk. When these teams met less than a month ago Gonzaga won by 14 at home, really struggling to find an offensive groove despite a big edge in the turnover battle. San Francisco has covered in eight of the last nine meetings between these teams including three S/U wins as this is always a much bigger game for the Dons. Gonzaga has Santa Clara up next so this would be an easy game to overlook but San Francisco has proven to be a difficult team to blowout featuring a glowing 14-6-1 ATS record and a near even point differential despite the losing overall record. San Francisco has played a tougher overall schedule than every team in the WCC other than Gonzaga so the Dons may be a better team than it looks and this will be a good situation to back the home underdog with Gonzaga coming off perhaps the biggest game of the season.

 
Posted : February 16, 2013 11:04 am
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Cyrille Diabate +200 over Jimi ManuwaFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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This is a matchup of the wily, technical veteran going up against the powerful young newcomer. In what should be a stand up war, look for the crafty Cyrille Diabate (20-8-3) to use his reach advantage and kickboxing to keep Jimi Manuwa (12-0) at a distance. While an impressive 11 of Manuwa’s 12 wins have come by knockout, Diabate has only been knocked out once in his career and that was by Shogun Rua back when stomps to a downed opponent were still legal in Pride. The flip side of Manuwa having so many stoppage victories is that his cardio has looked more and more suspect as the fight wears on. Questionable cardio and facing an opponent with a solid chin and huge reach advantage does not look like a good match up for Manuwa. The veteran Diabate should be fighting a smart fight knowing to avoid and outlast the first round barrage that is coming and then picking apart Manuwa in the later rounds.

 
Posted : February 16, 2013 11:05 am
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Andrew LangeFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Pittsburgh at MarquetteFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: UnderFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Numerous factors point us towards the under with this afternoon's Pittsburgh-Marquette matchup. The first meet was a knock-down-drag-out affair that produced only 65 possessions despite going to overtime. And the 74-67 score is very deceiving with the game tied 57-57 at the end of regulation. Pace wise we're dealing with two of the slower teams in the Big East with both averaging around 62 possessions per game. There have also been multiple reports that both squads will play zone defense at times this afternoon. For Pitt it is a smart move considering Marquette ranks No. 1 in the Big East is 2-point FG% at 51.5% and 14th at shooting threes (27.2%). Pitt has a similar blueprint with a vast majority of its points coming from inside 20 feet. Note that last year's meeting produced 119 points and 59 possessions and that was with Marquette playing up-tempo and averaging around 70 possessions per game. The Golden Eagles are significantly slower this year and as a result, we'll play this one under the total.

 
Posted : February 16, 2013 11:21 am
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Wunderdog

Virginia at North Carolina
Pick: North Carolina -5

Looks like an oddsmakers hedge here as the North Carolina Tar heels are barely favored at home vs. a good Virginia team. The hedge stems from the fact they anticipate that North Carolina will come into this game flat, having played their ultimate rival, Duke, in their last game. That hasn't been the case for Carolina as they are 12-1 straight up in their last 13 after playing Duke and have covered four of their last six after losing to Duke. The hells are young and benefit greatly from playing at home where they are 12-1 on the season. Virginia may be a bit overrated coming into this one as they have yet to face either Duke or Miami,Fla, the conference leaders. They have stumbled on the road at 3-9-1 ATS in their last 13. Play on North Carolina.

 
Posted : February 16, 2013 11:31 am
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Harry BondiFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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WEST VIRGINIA (-14.5) over Texas TechFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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We went against the Mountaineers on Wednesday night when we cashed in on another 4-Star winner as Baylor rolled in a 20-point rout. But today we'll turn the tables and lay the big number with West Virginia. If there was ever a team that has packed it in for the season, it's Texas Tech. The Red Raiders have lost nine of their last 10 games and those losses have come by an alarming 20 points per game, including a 16-point setback at home to this same West Virginia team. The Mountaineers are still in contention for a postseason berth and are 4-1 ATS this year off a loss in conference play. If Huggy Bear has a chance to win by 20 points, he won't take the foot off the gas pedal. Lay the points.

 
Posted : February 16, 2013 11:33 am
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Joe DuffyFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Bowling Green vs. AkronFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
Play: Bowling GreenFOR FREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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Going with double-digit underdogs in revenge of a home loss is an impressive 781-584. Also going with double-digit underdogs playing a team with 10 or more consecutive wins is a solid 406-342.
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Akron is a dichotomous spread and straight up team. This means if a team is consistently winning outright but failing to cover or losing outright and covering, we ride the spread streak. This has proven to be a way to isolate over and undervalued teams. Despite 16 straight wins straight up they have dropped three in a row against the spread.
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Bowling Green is playing their best basketball of the season winning 3-of-4 straight up and covering each one. It is a clear-cut case of one team wanting to escape with a win before their big Bracket Buster game, while the underdog wants to keep it close.

 
Posted : February 16, 2013 11:42 am
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NY ISLANDERS -104 over New Jersey
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OT included. Not the best spot for the Devils after they exerted a lot of energy in that come from behind win over Philadelphia last eve. It wasn’t easy and now New Jersey will play the tail end of back-to-backs with their backup goaltender, Johan Hedberg as the confirmed starter. That said, this one is more about taking the value being offered on the host.
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Loaded with talent and creativity, the Islanders remain strongly on our radar screen. After falling behind 2-0 to the Rangers on Thursday at MSG, the Islanders rallied for three goals in a dominant second period and ultimately finished the deal in a shootout win. They actually made the Blue Shirts look silly at times in much the same way they did against Tampa Bay in the second game of the season and even more so against Buffalo last Saturday when they outshot them 43-15 and played most of the game in Buffalo’s end. The addition of defenseman Lubomir Visnovsky makes this Islanders power-play incredibly dangerous and the team better as a whole. We mentioned on Thursday that the Islanders could be on the verge of winning streak. They’re off on the right foot and now price and situation will hopefully allow for another step in that same direction.
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Tampa Bay -110 over FLORIDAFREE SERVICE PLAYS VISIT THESPREAD.COM
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OT included. Strange year so far. We saw the Blues jump out to a 6-1 start and looking near flawless in doing so. Then, they proceeded to lose their next five games while allowing 27 goals in the process. The Sharks are going through a similar stretch right now. San Jose opened the year 7-0. They’re now on a 0-7 run after losing again last night. Then there’s the plight of the Tampa Bay Lightning. Here’s a team loaded with talent (Martin St Louis, Vincent Lecavalier, Steven Stamkos, Victor Hedman, Cory Conacher, Matt Carle, Ted Purcell, Sami Salo, Eric Brewer and others) that opened the year by winning six of seven games while scoring goals like this league hadn’t seen since the Gretzky era. After beating the Jets 8-3 on Feb 1, the Lightning haven’t been the same. Tampa has now lost six in a row and as a result of that, we get a hugely favorable line here.
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The Panthers have some troubled skaters (Stephen Weiss at -9, Brian Campbell at -9, Tomas Fleishmann at-9, some old and way past their prime one's (Alex Kovalev, Peter Mueller) and goaltender Jose Theodore, who appears to be battling the puck most nights. Florida is also without a couple of key guys in Kris Versteeg and Ed Jovanoski. The Panthers have lost six games this season by three or more goals and five games by four or more. They’ve also seen four of their last five games go into OT with the Panthers winning once while losing three times. If the Lightning are to turn their season around and regain the momentum they started with, there’s no better place than here against a struggling team and one they’ve defeated in their last five meetings.

 
Posted : February 16, 2013 1:00 pm
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Iowa State -18
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Iowa State can score and they can score in a hurry. TCU averages under 50 pts a game on the road and this team is going to get backed by some just because they beat Kansas. Iowa State might be a little jealous because they had Kansas on the ropes on the road earlier this year and blew the game. I just don’t think TCU will be able to keep up with the scoring today. Take Iowa State.
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Cal Poly -6
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Cal Poly at home has been money in the bank this year. This team just crushes whoever they play in this gym. UC Santa Barbara won earlier this year in their home building and Cal Poly will look for revenge. This team shares the ball well and should pull away in the 2nd half. Take Cal Poly.

 
Posted : February 16, 2013 1:08 pm
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