Teddy Covers
Arizona State at Colorado
Play: Arizona State
The Sun Devils were a legitimate ‘value’ team for most of the season. They were projected as the #11 team in a 12 team conference, and failed to impress early on, starting the year 1-2 ATS. But following that sluggish start, Herb Sendek’s team proceeded to go 10-3 ATS in their next 13 ballgames, playing themselves into contention for a postseason bid.
Arizona State has cooled off, losing three of their last four in SU fashion, including a particularly poorly played defeat at Utah on Thursday Night. The Sun Devils aren’t losing by margin, however – all three recent defeats have come by five points or less. They’ve won on the road in SU fashion at Texas Tech, Oregon State and Wassou, and have hung tough in tight road losses by five or less at Oregon, Washington and Utah. It’s not easy to beat Arizona State by margin these days, and they’re primed for a strong bounceback showing tonight!
Arizona State is not doing it with smoke and mirrors either – Sendek’s got some real talent this year! Point guard Jahii Carson has exceeded everyone’s expectations after sitting out last year as a non-qualifier; a legitimate ‘spark plug’ type of player. Carrick Felix has already been named the PAC-12 Player of the Week three times this year; a double-double machine. Evan Gordon and Jonathan Gilling are perimeter sharpshooters, combining to hit 4.5 three pointers per game. And 7-2 center Jordan Bachynski is blocking more than four shots per game, a true low post defensive dominator.
Colorado is coming off a major revenge win over PAC-12 leader Arizona, leaving them potentially a tad bit ‘fat and happy’ here. The Buffaloes struggled to match up with the Sun Devils in the first meeting despite a poor game from Carson, who’s been on quite a tear of late; pouring in 57 points in the two games of their last road trip against the Washington schools. Don’t expect the matchups to work much better for the home favorite tonight!
Hollywood Sports
New Mexico St. at Utah St.
Prediction: Over
Take the Over in this Battle of the Aggies between the New Mexico State and Utah State as the books have posted a Total for this Western Athletic Conference contest (during a year where most books have been selective in offering an Over/Under number to the betting public since these are books are losing these propositions too often). Utah State (17-6) saw their three-game winning streak snapped on Thursday in their 63-60 loss in overtime to Denver. That game finished Over the 112 Total which means that Utah State has seen the Over go 20-5-1 in their last 26 games on their home court. Additionally, Utah State has played 5 of their last 6 games Over the Total against teams with a winning percentage over 60%. New Mexico State (18-8) looks to keep it going after their 67-57 win at San Jose State on Thursday. That game most likely finished as a Push with the Total placed at 124 -- and that means the Over is 4-0-2 in the visiting Aggies last 6 games on the road. Take advantage of the posted number here and take the Over.
Tony Karpinski
UC Riverside vs. Long Beach State
Play: UC Riverside
CAL Riverside had a very difficult game with Long Beach State that went to the limit taking them to overtime despite being a home dog and losing 91-82. Granted, this team does not have a straight up record prowess, but they have been a strong underdog for quite some time this year. This team lost by 4 points to UC Irvine on the road, lost to UC Davis by 7 points on the road, lost to Pacific by 5 points on the road, lost to Cal State Fullerton by 2 points on the road and the Highlanders are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games on the road with a winning percentage of greater than 60% and the Niners of Long Beach are 1-5 ATS when facing teams with a road winning percentage of less than 40 percent. Look for a tight game right to the end here.
Freddy Wills
Loyolla Marymount +13.5
Loy already lost on the road by 13 to St Mary's and that to me means we have value in the spread. This is also a key game for St Mary's on the road in a hang over spot as they just got run off the court in the 2nd half against Gonzaga. They have BYU up next and they are in no mood to play this game. Marymount on the other hand would love to steal a victory and it's clearly possible. St Mary's relies heavily on the three point game and while Loyolla struggles defending the perimeter it's easy to see how they can make adjustments in the second match up of the season. I see this Marymount giving a scare to St Mary's.