Freddy Wills
Wichita State vs. Davidson
Play: Davidson +3
Davidson is 17-3 at home over their last 4 years vs. non conference opponents and they are 12-1 overall this year with their lone loss vs. a very good Vanderbilt team. It's ironic that they face the 2nd best team from Kansas in Wichita State that has to travel nearly 1200 miles just to get to the game on Saturday morning. It's ironic because Davidson went on the road and shocked Kansas earlier this year as 13 point under dogs. It'll be a different challenge, but Davidson will be up for it in my opinion. They have great perimeter defense and a knack for frustrating teams holding opponents to 41% in their own building. They held a great Kansas team to 40% on the road so you know they have an ability to stop quality offenses. Probably the biggest match up will be 7-0 SR from Wichita Garett Stutz vs. Jake Cohen 6-10. Cohen I think will be up to the task as he was against future top 5 NBA draft pick Thomas Robinson holding Robinson to 21 points on 7 for 18 shooting (38%). Thomas season average was 54.6%. Both of these teams have balanced scoring efforts and do not rely on one player more than another so I expect you see a very close game. Wichita is the better team but they already know they're going to the NCAA tournament. Davidson will likely be there as well so I expect this game to be played for a better seed, but Davidson needs it more despite their win at Kansas.
Nelly
Baylor - over Kansas State
Baylor lost back-to-back games against Kansas and Missouri but rebounded nicely with a 15-point win over Iowa State on Monday. Baylor is 0-4 versus Kansas and Missouri this season but 22-0 against everyone else and they will be ready for a Kansas State squad that nearly beat them in early January. The Wildcats played then undefeated Baylor to a 2-point game in that contest, a sloppy game filled with turnovers but also hot shooting from both sides. Kansas State has struggled after a promising start to the season dropping five of the last ten games and going 3-7 ATS in that span. They enter this game coming off perhaps the biggest game of the season, playing Kansas at home earlier in the week, a game they fell short in, 59-53. Kansas State is just 3-4 in road games this season and while this team seems to be heading the wrong direction, they are still sitting pretty well to get a berth in the NCAA tournament with the overall body of work. Kansas State id 7-16 ATS the past 23 road games and while Baylor has been struggling ATS in recent games this situation sets up well for another convincing home win for the Bears.
OC Dooley
UNLV +5 at New Mexico
Even though they are off to the best start since way back in the 1991 campaign (22-5) Nevada-Las Vegas has something to prove as they have been called “road soft” by several national prognosticators. This game will be seen by the western half of the country and more in an early CBS telecast where the Rebels have their shot on the big stage to prove that they can handle a step-up game in enemy territory. They are seemingly catching New Mexico at the perfect time as the Lobos are coming off a resounding 77-67 road triumph against #13 ranked San Diego State which vaulted them to the top spot of the Mountain West Conference. New Mexico was searching for a “signature” victory to help their NCAA resume and got just what the doctor ordered. But it should be pointed out that Nevada-Las Vegas has successfully COVERED the spread in 7 of the past 10 visits to New Mexico’s famously named facility known as “The Pit”, including consecutive straight-up triumphs. To make a long story short Nevada-Las Vegas is way overdue to pick up a “margin” victory after being involved in nailbiters or coughing up big leads. The Rebels are coming off a road loss earlier this week in overtime where the squad blew an enormous 18 point edge in the second half. Last Saturday at home the Rebels pulled out a victory against San Diego State which went down to the wire even though Las Vegas had a 13 point second-half edge. Nevada-Las Vegas head coach Dave Rose leading up to this game has talked about his troops needing killer instinct and quote putting the “foot on the petal”. In that overtime loss on Tuesday the final score was 102-97 which opens the door to an interesting database angle. In the past fifteen years after a game where the defense was scorched for 90+ points, Nevada-Las Vegas has generated a serious profit (10-2 ATS) for investors and I am looking for more of the same
Dave Price
1 Unit LA Clippers -2.5
Expect San Antonio's 9-game winning streak to come to an end this afternoon. The Clippers are 8-2 SU and ATS in their last 10 home games with wins over the Heat, Lakers, Mavs and Thunder during this stretch, and they'll be lacking no motivation as they look to avenge the 115-90 beating they took in San Antonio Dec. 28. Lay the number.
Free NCAAB Release for 2/18: New Mexico -4.5 over UNLV. We'll put our faith in the Lobos being well prepared for this game with the Runnin Rebels. They've lost three straight to UNLV, going back to last January, including a 17 point beat-down at UNLV earlier this year. But the Runnin Rebels arent the same team on the road, sitting at just 5-5 on the season. While the public is throwing money on UNLV, we believe oddsmakers have the right team favored here. In conference play, New Mexico is outscoring opponents by 12.6 points/game compared to 6.6points/game by UNLV. And they're doing it with solid defense, holding conference foes to 57.7 points/game on just 39.2% from the floor. New Mexico is scoring just 2 points/game less than UNLV, but they're hitting 47% of their shots in conference play, slightly better than the Runnin Rebels 45.8 FG%. New Mexico is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. winning teams, and 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a teams with winning percentages above .600. UNLV is 0-6 ATS in their last six road games, and 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning record. Although you may get the Lobos at a better price later on, we'll side with New Mexico at -4.5. Our Free Picks are now 163-87-1 overall. Sign up today at iseewinners.com to receive all of our free releases via email. Thank you, and good luck.
Sports Memo
Southeast Missouri at McNeese State
Play: McNeese State
Looking to take advantage of a little travel here on Bracket Buster Saturday at Southeast Missouri bused the 11 hours to Lake Charles, Louisiana to face McNeese State. This after playing an emotional senior day game against the OVC's top team Murray State on Wednesday. McNeese State had difficultly in the early going against non-conference teams but like a lot of the Southland, they were forced to go about it on the road. McNeese beat a very solid Lamar team on this court earlier this season and acquitted themselves well in a nine-point loss to what has no become a 22-4 Southern Miss squad. Both teams are pretty even (SEMO 211 Ken Pom, McNeese 217 Ken Pom) but one is in its comfort zone and one has an 11-hour bus trip home. These meaningless games for both sides can be tricky but I think McNeese is worth a bet in some capacity – first half (-2.5) or game (-5).
Wunderdog
UTEP vs. Memphis
Play: UTEP +14.5
UTEP (12-13) has a good offense, shooting 47% as a team (No. 49 in the nation) and can play defense as we've seen the last two games, both wins, allowing 55 and 52 points (the latter in overtime). Don't mess with this team as a dog! The Miners are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games as an underdog, including 8-1 ATS in their last nine games as an underdog of +13.0 or greater. Memphis is the bigger name school, but the Tigers are 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games vs. a team with a losing record, as well as 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a home favorite of -13.0 or greater. And when these teams meet home court has meant little, as the Miners are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings, and the road team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings. Play UTEP.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit Utah +10.5
The Utes have lost 6 in a row, but I have no doubt they'll show up today versus a Colorado team that buried them by 40 Dec. 31. Coach Krystkowiak's teams are a proven 11-0 ATS when out for revenge for a road loss to an opponent and 8-0 ATS when out for revenge for a loss of 10 points or more to a foe. The Utes have played well in their last 2 earning covers at Arizona State and Arizona. Having had a week to prepare, I like their chances in this heavily motivated spot.
Tony George
Kansas State +7
Like their chances for a cover here off back to back losses. Baylor solid team but has struggled against good teams and physical teams in general, and K State very physical. You can expect a full out effort against Baylor from K State today, their back is against the wall and I expect some very good defense from K State as well. Lost a tough one to Kansas this week, and motivated big time to make a stand in Waco. Too many points. Kansas State and the points here.
Harry Bondi
NORTH CAROLINA -12
This is a game that we use annually as Carolina just owns Clemson. Tar Heels are an amazing 55-0 straight up and 38-17 ATS at home against the Tigers! North Carolina is the best offensive team in the nation averaging 83 points per game and has also turned up the heat on defense lately. North Carolina is currently tied with Duke and Florida State for the ACC lead so we don't think they will look past the Tigers today. The Tar Heels have outscored the Tigers by an average of 18 points over the last six meetings at the Smith Center and will win by at least that today. Take the Tarheels minus the points.
Hollywood Sports
Portland at Pepperdine
Prediction: Portland
The Pilots (6-20) have lost three straight games but do come off a respectable performance as they took San Diego to overtime on their home court before losing by a 78-75 margin. Portland has rebounded to cover the point spread in 5 of their last 6 games after a loss. The Pilots have also covered the spread in 4 straight road games as an underdog. And while Pepperdine is 5-7 at home this season, Portland has covered the spread in 6 of their last 8 road games against teams with a losing record at home. The Waves enter this game on a five-game losing after their 81-70 loss at Seattle. Pepperdine is 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a loss. They have also failed to cover the spread in 12 of their last 17 home games as a favorite of under seven points. Additionally, the Waves have failed to cover the spread in 4 straight games against teams with a winning percentage below 40%. Both of these teams are allowing their conference opponents to score at a 1.09 Points-Per-Possession rate in West Coast Conference play. But Pepperdine is last in the conference with a low 0.90 PPP scoring rate which manages to make Portland's 0.95 PPP scoring efficiency almost gaudy. The Waves' inability to score should keep the Pilots in this game. Take the points with Portland in this one.
Jeff Scott Sports
5 UNIT PLAYS
Tulana/ UAB Over 112.5: Neither team is a run and gun team, but with the way the teams have been playing lately this OU line looks rather low. Tulane enters this game with their last 5 games averaging 130 ppg, while their road games on the year have averaged 118.2 ppg. We also note that their Conference games have averaged 126.6 ppg, while their last 4 conference road games have averaged 122.8 ppg. Now UAB's games haven't been high scoring this year, but their numbers across the board are all higher than this total. UAB's Conference games have averaged 117.5 ppg, while their last 5 overall have averaged 120.2 ppg, plus we note that their home games have averaged 126.7 ppg, while their conference home games have averaged 125 ppg, with just 1 of the 6 games putting up less than 120 points. UAB has scored just 64.9 ppg at home, but that number has increased of late as they have averaged a healthy 72.3 ppg. For much of the year Tulane has been solid at the defensive end, allowing just 59.1 ppg overall, but on the road this year they have allowed 62.6 ppg, while in their last 5 games overall they have allowed 68.2 ppg. UAB allowed just 28 points to SMU the other night, but in their previous 5 games they allowed 68.4 ppg, while in their last 3 at home they allowed 67.3 ppg. The Green Wave has had some ugly scoring games on the road and they have averaged just 55.6 ppg away, but even if they hit just that mark we should be golden. With the Way UAB has been playing defense as a hole of late, I expect the Green Wave to hit at least 59 or 60 in this one, while the Blazers should hit the 60 point mark as well. Looking at the numbers above, this game should have an OU line of at least 118 and I will take that value here with a game that should be played in the 120's.
POWER ANGLE PLAY
Creighton/ Long Beach State Under 151: (Added) Boy I have been burned on the total of some of these MVC games, but hopefully with this being a non-conference game things will be different. We know that both teams do like to push the tempo, but both teams also know how to play defense as well. Long Beach State comes in having won 12 in a row and in only one of those games did they allow more than 69 points and that was an OT game. During the last 12 games they have allowed just 62.3 ppg, with those games averaging 136.8 ppg, while only one of those put up 150+ points. Creighton's last 9 games have averaged 141.3 ppg, with the Blue Jays allowing just 67.1 ppg in the process. Now as i stated at the top, both teams can score pretty, but this is a HUGE bracket buster game for both teams and I expect them to really clamp it down on the defensive end. This game should finish in the low 140's. POWER ANGLE FOR THIS PLAY--- Play Under - Road teams where the total is between 150 and 159.5 points (LONG BEACH ST) - after 2 straight games outrebounding opponent by 10 or more. This play is 30-8 the last 5 seasons.
4 UNIT PLAYS
NEW MEXICO -5.5 over UNLV: Google News Play. New Mexico is 21-4 on the year, which is a very impressive record, plus they hold a 1 game lead on UNLV in the Mountain West, yet they are unranked, while the Rebels come in ranked 11th in the country. Plus we can go the revenge rout as well as the Rebels beat new Mexico by 17 points earlier in the year. New Mexico is rolling right now as they have won 6 in a row and have scored 71.2 ppg, while holding opponents to just 50.3 ppg. Now that's domination. The Rebels have been excellent at home on they year where they have gone 11-2 and have outscored opponents by 18.7 ppg. UNLV has struggled on the road of late as they are just 2-3 on the road, since Jan. 14 with its two wins coming in overtime against Boise State and Air Force, both of which are tied for last in the conference standings. We know that both teams can score, but New mexico get a HUGE edge at the defensive end where they are ranked 9th in points allowed (57.7 ppg) and 6th in defensive FG% (37.4 %), while the Rebels are ranked 178th in points allowed (67 ppg) and 74th in defensive FG% (40.9%). UNLV has also allowed 73.9 ppg on the road, while the Lobos have allowed just 55.7 ppg at home. The Lobos are playing much better than the Rebels right now and they have the much better defense, they are at home in front of the National audience, they have revenge on their minds and they wanna show everyone that the wrong team is ranked. Just too many edges for the Rebels to overcome here. New Mexico by 10.
MAINE PK over Marist: Living in Maine I have been waiting all year to make a play involving the Black Bears and this is it. This is a great spot for Maine to pick up a win over a regular lined team. Maine has 3 wins over lined teams this year vs Brown and Rhode island on the road and eastern Illinois at home, plus they have a 9 point loss to Notre Dame on the resume, so they can play with some of these out of conference lined teams. Today they get to face a bad non-conference team as Marist comes in at 10-16 overall and a pathetic 1-12 on the road. the Red Foxes have been outscored by 15.4 ppg on the road and they have been bad at both ends of the floor in this process as they have averaged just 63.4 ppg on 38.1% shooting, while allowing 78.8 ppg on 49% shooting when they take to the road. at home this year Maine has averaged 66.9 ppg on a solid 45.7% shooting, while they have allowed 65.6 ppg on just 42% shooting. This is a Bracketbuster game and while Marist is playing better at te moment their road woes will jump up an bit them in the ass vs a Maine squad that has played pretty well out of conference this year. KEY TREND--- MARIST is 2-10 ATS when playing against a marginal losing team (Win Pct. 40% to 49%) over the last 3 seasons.
3 UNIT PLAYS
Iona/ Nevada Over 151: Iona loves to push the tempo, especially on their home floor. The Gaels are 6th in shots per game (62.3), while at home they have thrown up 66.4 shots per game. They have scored 87.8 ppg on 50.1% shooting on their home floor this year, with those games averaging 164.4 ppg. Now one could say that alot of that was due to the weak competition they play in the MAAC, and while that is true, we also note that during an early season tourney vs teams that don't usually push the pace (Purdue, W. Mich and Maryland) they had a 3 game set that averaged 171.7 ppg, plus in a home game vs St Joes right after the two teams combined for 203 points (165 in regulation). So you see this team will run with anyone and make them run as well. Nevada is not a running team by any stretch as they have shot the ball just 53 times per game (247th), but they can run if need be. In their last 2 road games vs San Jose State and Hawaii (two teams that are 109th or better in spg) they hoisted up 60 shots in both games and scored an average of 82 ppg in the process. for the year Nevada has scored 70.3 ppg on 45.2% shooting overall, while on the road they have scored 72.7 ppg on 46.4% shooting. What should hel the Wolfpack score even more is a Gaels defense that has allowed 76.4 ppg in their last 5 games overall and 76.6 ppg at home. The Wolfpack has played some good defense this year, as they have allowed 63.5 ppg overall and 66 ppg on the road, but in those two faced paced games they did allow 74.5 ppg and we have seen this year that the Gaels can score on anyone, especially at home. I expect this game in the 160's.
Kansas State/ Baylor Over 135.5: When this game came out last night i played it right away thinking that the line would move and it did as it's now up to 137 in some spots.This has been somewhat of a high scoring series the past few year, as 5 of the last 6 meetings have all seen games where 140+ points were scored, with an average of 151.8 ppg being scored over the 6 games, while in the first game this year we saw 148 points scored. Baylor has scored very well at home this year where they have averaged 78 ppg on 48.5% shooting and will be taking on a KSU team that has allowed 66 ppg on the road and 71.5 ppg in their last 2 away from home. KSU has struggled some to score of late and they do average just 65.7 ppg on the road, but they have averaged 68.4 ppg in their last 5 Big 12 road games and Baylor has allowed 68.6 ppg in their last 8 big 12 games overall. I don't see any reason why the Wildcats can't hit the Upper 60's in this one, while Baylor should be good for a game in the low to mid 70's. This game should hit 140+ with ease. KEY TRENDS--- BAYLOR is 19-5 OVER in home games after a game where they made 78% of their free throws or better since 1997, while KANSAS ST is 22-9 OVER in road games in February games since 1997.
Montana State +13 over CS FULLERTON: (Added) Montana State comes in having lost 6 in a row and non of their last 5 losses have been by more than 13 points, with two of the losses coming in OT.The Bobcats have gone just 5-8 on the road, but have been outscored by just 8.7 ppg in the process. CS Fullerton has had a nice year at 17-7 and they have gone 10-2 at home, but they have outscored their home opponents by just 6.7 ppg, while only 2 of their homes wins have been by 13 or more. The Titans do score plenty of points (82.2 ppg at home), and Montana State gives up plenty (72.2 ppg on the road), but I will look to the weak defensive play of the Titans, which should allow the Bobcats to keep this one close. Because of the pace the Titans play at they have allowed a lot of points this year, as they have allowed 71.7 ppg on 45.7% shooting overall, while at home they have allowed 76.2 ppg on 47.3% shooting. The Bobcats have struggled to score on the road (63.5 ppg), but they have hit 70+ points in 3 of their last 5 on road and they do come in averaging 70.8 ppg in their last 5 games overall, so they are capable of putting up some points on this team. At least enough to keep the game close. Titans by no more than 10 in this one.
Old Dominion/ Missouri State Over 122.5: (Added) Im not expecting the same amount of points that VCU and Northern Iowa put up last night, but these two teams should comfortably hit the 130+ mark in this one. The Bears have been playing a bit of an up tempo game this year and they home games check in at 133.3 ppg, while their last 6 at home have averaged 132.5 pgg (regulation). MSU has scored really well at home, where they have averaged 69.2 ppg. Now ODU does play good defense on the road, where they have allowed just 59.2 ppg, but this could be the best offensive team they will have faced on the road this year as they have faced some weak ass CAA offenses away from home so far. I don't see a reason why MSU won't put at least 65 points on the board in this one. On the other side we have an ODU team that is average at best on offense this year as they have put up just 64.8 ppg overall and 63.1 ppg on the road, but they have started to play much better at that end of the floor as they come in having put up 60 ppg in their last 5 games. defensive the Bears have been solid of late as they have allowed just 58.6 ppg in their last 5 games, but part of that is the 39 points they allowed to Drake a few games ago and they have still allowed 64.1 ppg at home on the year. This should be a good game with a little more of an uptempo pace to it and I fully expect the mid 60's on up for both teams in this one.
2UNIT PLAYS
Memphis/ UTEP Over 131.5: Memphis home games have averaged 134.3 ppg, while their last 5 overall have put up 137.2 ppg. For UTEP their road games have averaged 135 ppg, while their last 5 overall have put up 134 ppg. UTEP is 25-12 OVER in a road game where the total is 130 to 139.5 since 1997, while MEMPHIS is 10-1 OVER after 2 straight games committing 11 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons.
Illinois -2.5 over NEBRASKA: (Added) ILLINOIS is 16-6 ATS in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1997, while NEBRASKA is 1-9 ATS after 4 straight games committing 14 or less turnovers over the last 3 seasons. This illini need this one so much worse than the Huskers and I feel it will be a comfortable win for them.
MICHIGAN +5 over Ohio State: (Added) OHIO ST is 0-10 ATS in road games versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 3 seasons, while MICHIGAN is 29-14 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons and 10-1 ATS versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons.
1 UNIT PLAYS
Marquette +2.5 over CONNECTICUT: MARQUETTE is 25-13 ATS (+10.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons and 30-14 ATS (+14.6 Units) in road games off a win by 10 points or more over a conference rival since 1997. The Huskies are a different team without Calhoun. Golden Eagle win outright.
Minnesota/ Northwestern Under 135: (Added) Just too high a line for a Minnesota team that likes to slow the pace. This one should be played in the 120's. Smith is 15-6 UNDER after a loss by 10 points or more as the coach of MINNESOTA.