Cajun Sports
George Mason vs. Northern Iowa
Play: George Mason -3½
In one of the featured Bracket Buster games this weekend a red-hot George Mason team faces off against a Northern Iowa team that just ended a three-game losing skid with a win at Bradley. George Mason is 12-0 straight up and 13-0 against the number and should add to those totals with a win here today. Mason has not only won a dozen straight, their last eight wins have been by fourteen points or more. George Mason enters this contest looking for an at-large bid while Northern Iowa with their nine losses will be home for the big show. GM is shooting the ball very well hitting forty-eight percent from the field and almost forty percent from three-point land, something Northern Iowa has been unable to sustain this season. A check of our powerful database reveals several strong technical situations that are active for this contest. George Mason after winning three straight games against the spread and now a favorite have posted a record of 8-1-2 ATS. If they won ATS and went Under in their last game and now have a line range of 3 to 6.5 are 6-0 ATS, if they are playing away from home they are 5-0 ATS in that same situation. If their last game was on the road George Mason is 45-26-4 ATS if they went Under on the road they are 20-7-1 ATS add a win SU and the record improves to 12-2 ATS. Lay the short number with the much better team as they roll past an overmatched Northern Iowa team on Saturday.
James Patrick Sports
Utah State vs. Saint Mary's
The Utah State Aggies are (6-2) ATS in their last (8) against the West Coast Conference and the Aggies are (19-7) ATS in their last (26) road games when playing a team with a home winning % of greater than (.600). Tough for us to pass on Utah State HC Stew Morril when his team is installed as the underdog. Big Game James Patrick's Saturday College Basketball complimentary selection is Utah State Aggies.
John Ryan
Pittsburgh vs. St Johns
Play: St Johns +4
5* graded play on St. Johns as they take on Pittsburgh set to start at Noon EST. My proprietary sports handicapping database and simulator shows a high probability that St. Johns will lose this game by fewer than three points and has an excellent opportunity to win this game. St. Johns is certainly the surprise team in the Big East and they are a team to be reckoned with come tournament time. St. Johns is 8-5 in the Big East Conference and 16-9 overall and win here over Pittsburgh would almost guarantee an invite to the Big Dance. They are one of four teams currently tied in third place in the conference standings with five losses. St. Johns has played their best basketball against the elite teams and are not intimidated by ranked opponents. They have posted a 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) versus very good teams outscoring their opponents by 8+ points per game over the last 2 seasons. I expect Red Storm guard and team leader Dwight Hardy to have a big game today. I strongly believe that the guard tandem of Hardy and is compliment DJ Kennedy will be very difficult for Pitt to defend consistently for 40 minutes. Take the Red Storm.
Steve Merril
Illinois @ Michigan St
PICK: Over 135.5
These two teams met a month ago and Illinois held off Michigan St for a 71-62 win. That game should have been higher scoring; the teams had 78 combined points at the half. It was also right on pace for an Over throughout the second half until the teams went ice cold over the last 4 minutes of the game as they only scored a total of 3 points. Both teams have struggled lately; Illinois is just 4-6 over their last 10 games while Michigan St is just 2-6 over their last 8 games. But both teams are at their best in transition, and since neither is afraid of pushing the tempo, we expect tonight’s game to be played at a quick pace just like the first half was in the first meeting.
Illinois’ offense is extremely efficient when able to play at their preferable fast pace; the Illini average 72 points per game on 46.6% shooting from the field. Michigan St has been terrific on offense at home as they are averaging 74 points per game on 44.8% shooting. Their average home game has seen about 136 points per game scored this season, and since they’ve put-up 75 and 84 points in their last two games in the Breslin Center, another good offensive performance should be seen tonight. We’ll look for a similar offensive flow as the first meeting between Illinois and Michigan St, except this game gets up and Over the total.
Tom Freese
Oklahoma at Kansas St
Play: Kansas St
Oklahoma is 12-13 straight up this year. The Sooners are 19-41-1 ATS their last 61 games as road underdogs. The Sooners are 3-10 ATS off a straight up loss in their last game. Oklahoma is 6-19 ATS in road games off two or more losses. The Sooners are 3-10 ATS vs. the Wildcats. Kansas St is 17-9 straight up this year. The Wildcats are 39-18-1 ATS their last 58 home games vs. a team with a road win percentage of less than 40%. The Wildcats are 23-11-2 ATS their last 36 home games vs. a team with a losing record. The Wildcats are 4-1 ATS their last 5 games off an ATS WIN!
JR O'Donnell
Michigan St. -2.5
Michigan State - 2.5 needs to and will hang up a HUGE W tonight at the ESPN COLLEGE GAME DAY Breslin center. We note that these Jeykl & Hyde Spartans are 10-2 at home this season, including 5-1 in Big 10 league play.They go as the Kalin Lucas goes and the back court stud is averaging 21.3 points and 37.3 mpg, playing a possible 224 of 245 minutes recently. That Flat out was his best 6 game stretch as Spartan. The key here for the O'ster is the "D" that the Spartans have been playing latel ! Look at the recent #'s as MSU is back to its early season form on the D end. Look @ what they did vs. Penn State and Ohio State allowing .420 % from the floor and .369% from beyond the 3 point arc. These Spartans are back! Strong #'s here for a surging Spartans ball club. The 17-9 Illini imo will be running into a very focused Sparty club..... Coach Izzo knows how to and WILL have them ready to play ! Power ratings check in here @ - 4.67 points for the Spartans..Vegas Respect here as the Spartans are favored!!!
Marc Lawrence
Arkansas at Alabama
Prediction: Alabama
Bama is one of the few ‘power conference’ teams in the nation that actually owns a better league-record (9-2 SU) than non-league (8-6 SU) mark. Fueled by a 13-0 SU and 8-1 ATS mark at home this season, including 5-0 SU and ATS in SEC play, the Tide are on a nice little 12-2 SU and 11-2 ATS run and have made a mockery of the SEC West. They’ve built up that record against the likes of sub .727 opposition (14-3 SU, 9-4 ATS) and that’s exactly where the 15-9 Razorbacks fall. And speaking of falling, Arkansas has been hog-tied in Tuscaloosa since 1998, posting a 2-11 SU and 4-9 ATS mark. And while it’s true this is the first time Alabama will be laying double-digits in this series since 2004, we’re not overly concerned: the Crimson have outscored their opponents by over 21 PPG at home this season, including 12 PPG against conference foes. With Arkansas looking dead ahead to a revenger with Kentucky and Alabama virtually locking up the division with a win, there’s really one way to look tonight in the Coleman Coliseum. Lay the wood as the Tide, once again, clean up the Hogs at home. We recommend a 1-unit play on Alabama.
Tom Stryker
Arkansas vs. Alabama
Play: Alabama -10½
With a victory tonight in Tuscaloosa, Alabama will clinch a tie for the SEC Western Division title. If that isn't enough to motivate head coach Anthony Grant's kids, then the simple fact that Arkansas won the first meeting between these two teams 70-65 back on January 15th should do the trick.
If you want to fade the Tide inside Coleman Coliseum, you can do it at your own risk. At home this season, Alabama owns a perfect 13-0 SU and 8-1 ATS record. Equally impressive, in their own backyard in this series, 'Bama has cruised to a respectable 14-5 SU and 11-7-1 ATS mark.
Fading the Razorbacks on the road hasn't been an issue. On foreign soil, Arkansas owns a disgraceful 54-100 ATS record including a pitiful 24-52 ATS in this set going into revenge. With those two parameters applied and Arky Pig matched up against a foe that checks in with momentum off a straight up win, this team trend bottoms out at a stiff 7-28 ATS!
Defensively, Alabama is a force allowing opponents an average of only 58.3 points per game and just 37.0 percent from the field. Arkansas was one of the rare SEC opponents to pop for 70 points against Tide this season. The Razorbacks average 71.2 points per game and connect on 44 percent of their shots from the field. Rest assured, 'Bama will welcome the challenge this Arkansas offense brings to the table and they will shut them down.
In their 70-65 blemish in Fayetteville, the Crimson Tide went cold from the field scoring just two buckets over the final 10 minutes. That won't happen here. UA has been golden at home this season and they want their payback. Take Alabama.
Jeff Alexander
1 Unit on Michigan State -2.5
This is a huge game for the Spartans as they look to build their NCAA tournament resume. Playing at home, where they are 10-2, and hungry to avenge last month's loss at Illinois, expect Sparty to get the job done here. Under coach Izzo, Michigan State is an impressive 24-10 ATS when out to avenge a same season loss to an opponent. The Spartans are winning these games by an average score of 70.2 to 62.1. Illinois has dropped 4 of its last 5 road games in Big Ten play. Plus, it has lost its last 4 at Michigan State by a minimum of 6 points. Lay the number.
Scott Rickenbach
St John’s Red Storm (+) vs Pittsburgh
The Panthers are expected to have leading scorer Ashton Gibbs back for this early game Saturday. He’s missed the last three games with a knee injury and we don’t expect Gibbs to just come back and automatically be knocking down shot after shot! He’s going to struggle some at first and the Panthers have not looked overly sharp when Gibbs is not on the floor and hitting on all cylinders. That said, Pittsburgh will have their hands full with St John’s in this one. The Red Storm have already knocked off Georgetown, Notre Dame, and Duke on this floor. They are a confident team as they’re coming off of a successful road trip that had an almost-tournament feel with short rest between games, etc. Now, after a nice break since Tuesday, well-rested St John’s is ready to roll both physically and mentally in this one.
The Red Storm already have 4 home wins this season in games against Top 25 teams! Now they get an opportunity to score another big home upset – remember the Duke game? – and the way senior guard Dwight Hardy is playing, the Red Storm certainly have a go-to scorer ready to explode in this one. Note that Hardy has averaged 27.8 points per game over his last four games. Look for more of the same here as the Red Storm improves to 7-0 straight-up this season when they are off of a game where they scored 80 points or more! Consider a small play on St John’s plus the points in early Saturday afternoon NCAAB action!
Karl Garrett
Pittsburgh (-3') at ST. JOHN'S
No doubt Steve Lavin has whipped the Red Storm into a late-season surge, as the Johnnies have pulled upset Big East wins and covers the last 3 times out, defeating Connecticut, Cincinnati, and most recently Marquette.
Today is where the recent uptick gets halted, as Pittsburgh could very well be the top team in the land even though they are ranked at # 4.
Jamie Dixon's team did not miss a beat when starting point guard Ashton Gibbs was sidelined, as the Panthers are currently on a 5-game winning streak, and they have covered in 3 of their last 4 wins.
Gibbs is expected to see action on Saturday, and that only makes the Panthers that much deeper, and more difficult for the Red Storm to contend with.
Series numbers show Pittsburgh having won and covered the last 5 series meetings. The Panthers are an overall 8-2 straight up, and 7-3 against the spread the last 10 times these conference rivals have clashed, and I fully expect Pitt to cool the Johnnies off in convincing fashion this afternoon in the Big Apple.
4♦ PITTSBURGH
Michael Cannon
Pitt at ST. JOHN'S (+3')
Take the points with St. John’s this afternoon at home against Pitt.
I didn’t like how the Panthers looked in Wednesday’s win over South Florida. They were disinterested for most of the game and had to turn it on just to pull away late for the 12-point home win.
If they have any lackadaisical moments here today you can bet St. John’s will make them pay for it.
The Red Storm have won five of six overall and have knocked off three top 10 teams at MSG so far this year. They are a veteran team with a boatload of seniors and you can bet they’ll be up for this challenge from Pitt today.
Take the points with St. John’s as they stay within the number.
3♦ ST. JOHN'S
Chris Jordan
Georgia (+4) at TENNESSEE
Revenge game for the Bulldogs, who lost earlier this season at home to Tennessee. And with their at-large bid hopes fading quickly, a win on the road today could revitalize their shot at getting in, while possibly sparking a late-season run.
The earlier-season loss to the Volunteers was a somewhat controversial one at Stegeman Coliseum, as Brian Williams managed to put back a buzzer-beater as he was falling down to give Tennessee a 59-57 win over the Dawgs.
The officials checked the replay to confirm that it was good, and after confirming the shot, Georgia suffered its first loss at home this season.
Now there is much more at stake, as the bubble is about to burst on the Bulldogs, who are 17-8 on the season, but have suffered crucial losses down the stretch lately.
Tennessee, which is just 3-7 ATS in its last 10 home games, has lost three of four both straight-up and against the number.
The Dawgs, meanwhile, come in on ATS runs of 5-0 as an underdog, 5-1 on the highway and 14-3 on Saturdays.
Take the road pup here.
1♦ GEORGIA
Bobby Maxwell
Georgia at TENNESSEE (-4')
For my comp selection, this is a huge game in the SEC as these two teams are tied with Kentucky for third place in the SEC East division. I expect big things from Tennessee in this matchup today.
The Vols beat South Carolina at home on Wednesday, winning 73-67, but they came up well short as 11 ½-point favorites. I think part of that lackluster performance was the look-ahead to today’s showdown. Tennessee already owns a win over Georgia when the Vols went there on Jan. 18 and won 59-57 as 4 ½-point underdogs.
Tennessee has won nine of the last 10 meetings with Georgia and cashed in 7 of those 10. At home, the Vols are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings with the Bulldogs.
Georgia has had trouble scoring points of late, topping the 60-point mark just once in the last six games. On Wednesday, the Bulldogs hosted Vandy and lost 64-56 as three-point favorites. They were just 19-of-53 from the field and got dominated on the glass, losing the rebounding stat 47-30.
Georgia has shot barely better than 40 percent over its last five games and Tennessee will turn up the defensive pressure and give the Bulldogs fits again today. The Bulldogs are just 1-4 ATS in their last five overall.
I’m laying the points with the Vols in this one. Play Tennessee.
4♦ TENNESSEE
Joel Tyson
Florida State (-10) at WAKE FOREST
With just 1 outright win their last 11 times on the court, it is hard to envision the 8-18 Demon Deacons upending the visiting Seminoles this Saturday afternoon, even with Florida State playing their first game without leading scorer Chris Singleton.
How about the cover?
Well, I wouldn't count on that either, as Florida State did already beat down the Deacons 85-61 during Wake's current 1-10 slide for the win and the cover as the 19-point home favorite.
Florida State stands at 18-7, and in reality they need to not only win games against teams like Wake, they need to crush them. The Sems enter with a 7-2 run on their side, and they have been getting the job done when listed as they favorite, covering 4 of their last 5 when laying the points.
Gonna lay the road wood and look for Florida State to take care of their business on the conference road today.
2♦ FLORIDA STATE
Joel Tyson
Notre Dame (+4) at WEST VIRGINIA
For Saturday in college hoops, could be West Virginia's best chance today to impress the tournament committee if they can spring the home court win over high-flying Notre Dame, but I just don't see the Mounties possessing a consistent enough offense to trade points with the Irish for the full 40 minutes.
Notre Dame is a pretty darn good outfit, and Mike Bray's team has won their last 7 games, and they have also covered in 6 of those 7. The lone non-cover was a 10-point win over Rutgers as the 11 1/2-point favorite earlier this month.
The Irish well remember the last time these schools met, as West Virginia knocked ND out of the Big East tournament last March at Madison Square Garden. You can expect the visitors to bring a little added intensity to the court today as they seek revenge for that loss.
West Virginia is only 1-3 straight up their last 4, while Notre Dame is a solid 10-4 their last 14 against the spread on the road, and the Irish have also covered in 16 of their last 21 in Big East play.
Have to take the points with Notre Dame to stick a fork in West Virginia's Big Dance hopes.
3♦ NOTRE DAME
Chuck O'Brien
Washington St. (-2) at ARIZONA ST.
For Saturday’s first of two complimentary college basketball selections, take Washington State as a slight road favorite at Arizona State.
The Cougars haven’t exactly been lighting the world on fire, as they’ve split their last 10 games (all in the Pac-10) and they’re just 7-8 since Christmas Day (including Thursday’s 79-70 loss at Arizona as an 8½-point underdog, their third straight non-cover). That said, Washington State is in MUCH better shape than the Sun Devils, who have lost nine in a row overall and 11 straight conference games.
On Thursday, Arizona State hosted Washington and got drilled 79-62 as an 8½-point home underdog, the team’s fourth straight home loss overall and sixth straight home setback. And from a gambling perspective the Sun Devils have been a disaster with just seven spread-covers in their last 25 games, and they’re 5-16-1 ATS in their last 22 at home.
Finally, even though the Sun Devils swept the season series from Washington State last year (two double-digit wins as a favorite), the Cougars got revenge a month ago in Pullman, Wash., rolling 78-61 as a 10-point home chalk. Take away last year’s results and the Cougars have won the last seven meetings in a row! Note this, too: Washington State is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six games when coming off a loss and 4-1 ATS in its last five games versus teams with a losing record.
4♦ WASHINGTON STATE
Scott Delaney
San Diego State at AIR FORCE (+12)
As much as I respect the Aztecs and what they've done this season, I don't believe this is a smart line to lay, on the road, in the altitude and against a team that can be scrappy on its own court.
And due to the fact San Diego State didn't take a comfortable lead during its 68-55 win over the Falcons on Jan. 19 until a late 13-3 run, I think the Academy is going to give Steve Fisher's troops some problems in this one.
The Aztecs have begun showing some vulnerability, as the season drags on, trailing at UNLV with 3:07 remaining before escaping with a 63-57 victory last Saturday, and then watched their double-digit lead slice to four points at home against New Mexico in a 68-62 win on Wednesday.
Now they're back on the road, and this one might catch up to them.
I know the Falcons are mired in a six-game slide to San Diego State, including last year's clash in Colorado Springs, but that's even more reason for revenge, stretching beyond just this year's game.
Air Force has covered six of its last eight overall, and will keep this one in single digits.
1♦ AIR FORCE
Derek Mancini
Cincinnati at PROVIDENCE (pk)
So the Friars laid and egg against DePaul and now everyone is fading them. Seems fitting because their opponent Cincinnati just beat Louisville (the same team we just watched thump Connecticut last night). So the public is salivating at this line, thinking they're getting a huge bargain with the "red-hot" Bearcats. Think again.
Just because a young, but underrated Providence team played one bad game doesn't mean we erase their rock-solid play over the last month, with upset wins over Louisville and Villanova, and a near upset at Georgetown. You can't simply ignore those wins because Providence lost to DePaul, every team lays an egg every now and again. And it seems like oddsmakers are agreeing with us, with the line now sityting at a pick'em.
Then there's the match ups, which are a lot closer than they appear. The Friars not only have the best player on the floor (Brooks), but arguablly the second best player as well in Vincent Council. True, the Bearcats don't need a lot of big time scorers with their excellent defense, but truth is the Friars defense at home is rock-solid, allowing 66 ppg on 40% shooting this season. Just for comparison sake, Cincy allows almost 43% shooting by opponents when on the road.
Look guys, the bottom line is this game is all about flase perception, and that is that the Friars are "fade material," while the Bearcats are supposedly "hot." The guys in Vegas are playing the public like a fiddle with this line, so beware, Cincy is in for a letdown tonight. Don't buy into the perception, take Providence over Cincinnati Saturday.
4♦ PROVIDENCE
Michael Cannon
Michigan (-1) at IOWA
Take Michigan to get it done on the road over Iowa.
The Wolverines are playing better down the stretch. They have covered six of their last seven overall and are making a push for some sort of postseason invite.
I can’t trust Iowa in this spot. Not even at home.
The Hawkeyes looked absolutely lost in a 17-point home loss to Minnesota on Sunday. They go through too many extended stretches where they struggle to get points and I feel like the Wolverines are going to make them pay for it here.
Michigan knocked off Iowa by 14 points back on Jan. 30 and not much has changed since then.
Take Michigan to get it done on the road.
3♦ MICHIGAN
Stephen Nover,
Fordham (+22) at XAVIER
Fordham does own a victory against St. John's, an impressive feat considering the Red Storm have defeated Duke, Connecticut and Marquette, Cincinnati and Rutgers during five of their last six games.
But this is far more a fade on Xavier than an endorsement of Fordham.
Xavier has yet to cover in five home games this season when laying 11 or more points. The Musketeers are 2-7-1 ATS during their past 10 home contests.
Fordham just covered in its last road game losing 77-66 as a 21 1/2-point underdog to Temple.
The Rams rank last in the Atlantic 10 in shooting percentage while averaging a league-low 59.6 points in conference. But they also are fourth-best in the Atlantic 10 in rebounding and have a nice player in forward, Chris Gaston.
Gaston is averaging 15.7 points per game and a league-best 11 rebounds per contest.
It's going to be easy for Xavier to take Fordham for granted. The Musketeers know their league record 37-game home win streak isn't in jeopardy with this matchup.
Xavier is going to lack the motivation to achieve a blowout victory.
1♦ FORDHAM
Stephen Nover,
San Francisco (+14') at GONZAGA
The oddsmaker doesn't seem to have caught on that youthful San Francisco is a good team and deserving of more respect on the betting line.
The Dons suffered on the road early in the season gaining experience while taking their knocks in losses at Washington (80-52), at Louisville (61-35) and Montana (76-59).
Those defeats seemed to have skewed the linesmaker's data base. How else to explain a line this high?
San Francisco already owns a victory against Gonzaga, 96-91 in overtime at home.
If you discount St. Mary's, the Dons are 8-1 in West Coast Conference games. This includes road victories at Loyola, San Diego, Santa Clara and Portland.
As a WCC 'dog, the Dons are 7-2. On the season, the Dons are 15-6-1 ATS. They have covered the four times they've been a conference road 'dog.
Sure the Bulldogs will be seeking revenge and they are very tough at home.
But this isn't a great Gonzaga team. The Bulldogs' defense is down from past years giving up more than 66 points per game.
Gonzaga has the name recognition and respect, though. San Francisco doesn't. That helps explain the inflation in this line and makes the Dons worth backing.
3♦ SAN FRANCISCO
Craig Davis
Illinois at MICHIGAN STATE (-2')
Today's free play is on Michigan State as small chalk over Illinois at home.
I watched this Michigan State team give Ohio State all they could handle last week before falling 71-61. They shot over 60% nearly the entire game and then just ran out of gas.
Michigan State is so much better than their 14-11 record, and because of Tom Izzo's track record in the tournament they might still be able to lose a few more and still make the Big Dance.
Michigan State has won four of their last five home games, though three of those went to overtime. The lone loss was an ugly one... to arch-rival Michigan despite having a 12-point lead in the first half.
Illinois simply isn't the same team on the road (4-4) as they are at home, and they've dropped four of their last five away from home including an ugly loss at Indiana, Northwestern and Penn State.
They play no defense on the road and their shooting percentage drops about 8%. Michigan State is really starting to hit their free throws much better and that could be the difference in this game.
Illinois hasn't gone to East Lansing and won since the 2005-2006 season... a streak of six straight home wins over Illinois for the Spartans. In the end I think the Spartans have a lot more to play for. I'll take Michigan State, 73-65.
3♦ MICHIGAN STATE
Derek Mancini
Illinois (+2') at MICHIGAN STATE
I'm well aware of the fact that the public is expecting a bounce back here from the Spartans, but guess what, you know who else is aware of that? The guys in Vegas, who have conveniently set this line right where the public expected it should be, but still short enough to make playing Michigan State a "perceived bargain." Well guys, unfortunately that's exactly what the oddsmakers want you to think, so I'd be very careful about siding with the public favorite here.
Michigan State has been overrated from the get-go, and couple that with several key injuries, and the obvious regression of Durrell Summers, and the Spartans are crushing their backers this season. Note, Michigan State is just 8-16 ATS on the year (4-7 ATS at home), and this is a team you want to back against a very feisty Illinois squad? Illinois may be coming off a couple losses ATS, but overall they've played well. Most importantly, their defense continues to be rock-solid, allowing 63 ppg on 39% shooting over their L5 games. That will be key against a Michigan State team that's struggling to put up points.
Looking at the match ups, the Illini frontline may have been at a disadvantage against Spartans forntlines of the past, but not this year's version. Between Davis, Tisdale, Richmond, and Cole, this Illini frontcourt should own the paint. Sure, Draymond Green is a great rebounder for his size, but his size or lack thereof is going to be issue tonight. Otherwise, Roe is nursing a knee injury (he'll play, but who knows how effective the offensively challenged Roe will be).
Of course, there's Kalin Lucas, who's the best player on the court, and finally looks to be recovered from his early season woes. However, as we saw in the Ohio State game, it takes more than just Lucas, and I question whether the Spartans have it in them against a defensively solid team like Illinois. Long story short, take Illinois plus the points over Michigan State Saturday.
1♦ ILLINOIS
Chuck O'Brien
George Mason (-4) at NORTHERN IOWA
For Saturday’s first of two complimentary college basketball selections, take George Mason as a slight road favorite at Northern Iowa in a Bracket Buster contest.
I made the mistake Tuesday of deciding to fade red-hot George Mason, and all the Patriots did was go to VCU and crush the Rams 71-51 as a 1½-point road underdog. That’s now 12 straight victories and 13 straight spread-covers for George Mason, including six straight wins and seven straight covers on the road!
This incredible run by the Patriots has all occurred within the Colonial Athletic Association, and in most years that would be a knock against George Mason, especially having to face a Missouri Valley Conference opponent. Not so this year, because the CAA has six solid teams in (George Mason, VCU, Old Dominion, James Madison, Hofstra and Drexel), while the Missouri Valley is top heavy with Wichita State and Missouri State.
Notice I didn’t include Northern Iowa in that statement, because the Panthers (19-9 overall, 10-6 in conference) have failed to recapture the magic from last year when they upset top-seeded Kansas and went to the Sweet 16. In fact, the Panthers had lost three straight games prior to Tuesday’s 80-70 win at Bradley, and although they covered in that game (as a 2½-point road favorite), they’re still just 2-5 ATS in their last seven. That includes last Saturday’s 18-point home loss to Wichita State.
Granted, Northern Iowa did cash in five of its last six non-conference games, but that’s nothing compared to what George Mason has done at the betting window with its 13 straight covers and its 20-5 ATS record, tops in the nation. Simply put, until the Patriots start losing/stop covering, they’re a must-play, and despite a tough travel spot, they’re catching a very beatable opponent, one that had averaged just 59.8 ppg over a five-game stretch prior to Tuesday’s 80-point explosion at Bradley (which is 9-18 overall and 3-13 in the Missouri Valley).
4♦ GEORGE MASON
Black Widow
1* on UAB -5.5
We'll lay the points with UAB Saturday as they host UCF. The Blazers are having a solid season, putting together an 18-7 record to this point. UCF is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games this season. The Knights are 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) versus teams who average 6 or less steals/game on the season this season. UCF is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) against conference opponents this season. The Knights are 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season. UAB already won at UCF 74-69 earlier this season, and are primed for an even bigger blowout at home this time around. Take UAB and lay the points.
Michael Alexander
Notre Dame vs. West Virginia
Play: Notre Dame +4
W VIRGINIA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) versus teams who average 6 or less steals/game on the season after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons
NOTRE DAME is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) versus good defensive teams - shooting pct defense of <=42% after 15+ games over the last 2 seasons
NOTRE DAME is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games off 3 straight wins against conference rivals over the last 2 seasons
Scott Spreitzer
UNLV @ Colorado State
PICK: Colorado State
This could be an eliminator tonight. UNLV and Colorado State are hoping they both get into the Big Dance, but the loser of this contest may come up short of an invite. Tough to back a fundamentally challenged Runnin' Rebel team that contiues to pass once down court then bomb away from the arc despite being a poor perimeter shooting team. UNLV is 322nd in the nation from area code three, yet they continue to fire away. They rarely set picks or screens and this puts the offense at a huge disadvantage against the better teams in the league. CSU is definitely now one of those better teams. The Rebels are 0-5 SU this season in games against BYU, San Diego State, and Colorado State. The Rams are averaging 73.5 ppg, and they rank 12th in the nation hitting on better than 48% of their FG attemnpts. The Rams hammered the Rebels in Las Vegas in January. Colorado State made 56% of their shots in the game and held the Rebels to 2 of 15, or 13.3% from the arc. They also beat the Rebels on the glass. UNLV is basically a "bust" inside and if Tre'Von Willis doesn't penetrate with the basketball, they have very little inside game. UNLV is on a 1-7 ATS slide in conference play while the Rams are on a 4-1 ATS conference run. Once again, the Rebels look to be over-valued. I'm backing the Rams to gain the season sweep. CSU on Saturday.
Ben Burns
Los Angeles Kings @ New York Islanders
PICK: Los Angeles Kings
Both these teams saw their winning streaks come to an end last time out. That suited me just fine, as I played against both of them. The Kings lost 4-3 at MSG, the Isles got blown out 6-3 by the Bruins. I expect the Kings to be the team which "gets back on track" here.
The Kings won easily when these teams faced each other earlier this season. That 5-1 victory saw them hold a commanding 34-19 edge in shots on goal. While that was at LA, the Kings also "swept" the Isles last season, earning a 2-1 victory here at Long Island. Looking back a bit further and we find the Kings at a perfect 6-0 the last six times that the faced the Isles, dating back to 2006.
While the Isles are "playing for pride," the Kings are in a "dogfight" for the playoffs. They've earned points in 11 straight games (8-0-3) and they should be able to continue their dominance in this series here. Consider LA